Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

Box Office Predictions: December 4-6

The first week of December is traditionally a weak frame at the box office as the month’s heavy hitters have yet to roll out and moviegoers are mostly nibbling on Thanksgiving leftovers. This year figures to follow suit as only the Christmas themed horror comedy Krampus opens wide and I don’t see it performing too well. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

Krampus Box Office Prediction

The post holiday weekend also usually means big drop offs for existing pics. The last two Hunger Games entries have fallen more than 60% on this weekend and current champ Mockingjay – Part 2 should do the same.

Disney’s animated features that debuted on Turkey Day weekend have typically fallen over 50% and that could true here with The Good Dinosaur.

And that could create a serious photo finish for the top spot. To add to the mystery: Creed opened to better than expected results and I foresee it having the smallest decline due to very positive word of mouth.

Krampus should land in the four spot with Spectre rounding out the top five. And here are those top five estimates for a fairly sleepy weekend:

  1. The Good Dinosaur

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 64%)

3. Creed

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. Krampus

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Spectre

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 52%)

Box Office Results (November 25-29)

Katniss and crew maintained their dominance as Mockingjay – Part 2 ruled Thanksgiving with $52 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $75.9 million for the five day holiday frame. This was in line with my respective projections of $48.4M and $75.5M. The franchise finale stands at $198 million so far.

Disney/Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur had a so so premiere compared to what the company is used to with $39.1 million over the three day and $55.4 million for the long weekend. This is well under my predictions of $56.6M and $78.9M. It will need meager drop offs over the holidays to avoid potentially being Pixar’s smallest earner in its storied two decade existence.

With legitimate Oscar buzz, Creed tapped into Rocky nostalgia and made a magnificent $29.6 million (three day) and $42.1 million (five day), knocking out my estimates of $19.6M and $27.4M. The red hot word of mouth clearly brought this to heights that were unimaginable just weeks ago.

Spectre was fourth with $12.8 million (three day) and a five day tally of $18.2 million for a $176M overall gross. I was close with $13.1M and $17.7M.

The Peanuts Movie came in a bit below my forecast at fifth with $9.7 million and $13.6 million compared to my predictions of $11.1M and $15.3M. It’s made $116M.

The Night Before was sixth in its sophomore frame with $8.3 million and $10.7 million – right in line with my estimates of $8M and (bingo!) $10.7M.

Last and majorly least, critically drubbed Victor Frankenstein tanked with an embarrassing $2.4 million and $3.5 million since its Wednesday start. This put it in just 12th place and way below my generous $10.8 and $14.8M projections.

That’s all for now folks! Until next time…

Krampus Box Office Prediction

A whole different kind of Christmas comedy hits theaters next weekend when Krampus debuts. This ain’t Love the Coopers, folks. Michael Dougherty, known best for his screenplays for superhero pics X2 and Superman Returns, is behind the camera. This isn’t his first holiday themed horror comedy though. He made the Halloween centric cult favorite Trick r Treat years ago.

Krampus focuses on what may be a very bad Santa with a cast featuring Adam Scott, Toni Collette, and David Koechner. The trailers do inspire some hope. Having said that, the first week of December is not fertile ground for new releases as audiences are mostly preoccupied with Thanksgiving leftovers. Additionally, while movie geeks may be looking forward to this, general audiences will probably stay away.

I believe Krampus will be lucky to reach double digits and will predict that it won’t.

Krampus opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million

Thanksgiving 2015 Box Office Predictions

The Turkey Day weekend box office is upon us and we have three new holiday offerings joining the fray: Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur, critically lauded Rocky spinoff Creed, and gothic horror tale Victor Frankenstein. You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/18/the-good-dinosaur-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/19/creed-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/19/victor-frankenstein-box-office-prediction/

Since the final Hunger Games pic opened to less than expected results (more on that below), I believe Dinosaur should roam to the top of the charts, though it could be somewhat close.

Solid buzz should put Creed solidly in third place, while I expect Frankenstein to struggle a bit in its opening. Holdovers like Spectre, The Peanuts Movie, and The Night Before should experience small declines as is typical over this holiday weekend.

And with that, I’ll do a top seven predictions that includes projections for both the traditional three day weekend and expanded Thanksgiving five day frame:

  1. The Good Dinosaur

Predicted Gross: $56.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $78.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2

Predicted Gross: $48.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $75.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Creed

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $27.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

4. Spectre

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $17.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

5. The Peanuts Movie

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $15.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

6. Victor Frankenstein 

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $14.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

7. The Night Before

Predicted Gross: $8 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (November 20-22)

Katniss and company easily ruled the box office as Mockingjay – Part 2 debuted, but it undeniably came in with less than anticipated numbers. The fourth and final chapter of The Hunger Games franchise made $102.6 million compared to my $124.2M forecast. This is easily the lowest opener of the series and over $50M below the heights of what Catching Fire did two years ago. A nine-digit premiere is always pretty solid, but Lionsgate was likely hoping for a better result than this.

007 was second with Spectre taking in $15 million, on target with my $15.3M forecast. In three weeks, its total stands at $154M.

Snoopy and the gang were third with The Peanuts Movie making $13.2 million, in line with my $14.1M projection. Its three week tally is $99M.

Raunchy Christmas comedy The Night Before had a lackluster beginning with just $9.8 million, well below my $16.6M projection. Its best hope is for smallish declines as the holiday it focuses on draws closer.

The weekend’s other newcomer, thriller Secret in Their Eyes with Julia Roberts, settled for fifth with a muted $6.6 million. It did manage to top my $5.1M prediction.

In sixth, another Christmas comedy Love the Coopers made just $3.9 million in its sophomore frame, below my $5.4M guesstimate.

Finally, Oscar hopeful Spotlight expanded its screen count and took in $3.5 million for 8th place. It couldn’t match my $4.7M projection, but did have the second highest per screen average of any film in the top ten after Mockingjay.

And there you have it, folks! Until next time…

Spotlight Box Office Prediction

One box office story that hasn’t been covered much for this weekend is the expansion of Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight, which is steeped in major Oscar buzz. The true story of Boston Globe reporters breaking the Catholic Church priest abuse stories, the pic has received raves from critics (93% on Rotten Tomatoes) and seems a shoo in for a Best Picture nomination (it may win).

With a strong ensemble cast that includes Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Rachel McAdams, Liev Schrieber, John Slattery, Stanley Tucci, and Billy Crudup, Spotlight expands to 598 screens this weekend. That’s not near the number of theaters of its competitors, but this should have the highest per screen average of any film not featuring Jennifer Lawrence and a bow and arrow.

While it probably won’t reach the top five, this should top $4 million in its expansion and settle in for a healthy run during Academy season.

Spotlight opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million

Victor Frankenstein Box Office Prediction

Professor X and Harry Potter in a Frankenstein movie? Sounds like an intriguing proposition as Victor Frankenstein opens over the Thanksgiving holiday. Yet serious competition could keep this concoction (with its reported $90 million budget) from solid earnings.

James McAvoy and Daniel Radcliffe star in the gothic horror flick from director Paul McGuigan, known primarily for TV work on “Sherlock” and “Scandal”, among others. As mentioned, the biggest stumbling block could be adult competition in the form of The Hunger Games and critically acclaimed Creed. 

Radcliffe has done this genre before to positive results as his 2012 pic The Woman in Black debuted to $20 million. However, this was right on the heels of his massive Potter success and it opened in a much less competitive frame. One thought is simply having “Frankenstein” in the title might help a bit, but it didn’t mean much for last year’s I, Frankenstein, which made just $8.6 million for its start.

With a lack of any real buzz going for it, I’ll predict Victor Frankenstein is mostly scared away by the box office fire generated by its competitors.

Victor Frankenstein opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $14.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Good Dinosaur prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/18/the-good-dinosaur-box-office-prediction/

For my Creed prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/19/creed-box-office-prediction/

Creed Box Office Prediction

With the best reviews of the Rocky franchise since the Oscar winning original nearly forty years ago, Creed enters the box office ring over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. It hopes to ride some seriously positive buzz to impressive numbers and it may well succeed.

Sylvester Stallone reprises his role as Rocky Balboa for the seventh time. Yet this time, Stallone has handed over the directorial duties to Fruitvale Station‘s Ryan Coogler and that film’s star Michael B. Jordan stars in the role of Apollo Creed’s son trying to make his way to boxing glory. He’s mentored by Stallone iconic Balboa, who’s earned Academy Awards buzz for his performance. It would mark his second nomination and it would be for playing the same role when he was nominated in 1976 for the first Rocky.

Reviews have been strong as Creed currently stands at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. My feeling is that strong word of mouth should propel this to a healthy Turkey weekend debut and it could subsequently hold up well in further frames.

Creed opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $27.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Good Dinosaur prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/18/the-good-dinosaur-box-office-prediction/

For my Victor Frankenstein prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/19/victor-frankenstein-box-office-prediction/

The Good Dinosaur Box Office Prediction

Pixar usually isn’t in the business of releasing two titles a year, but they are in 2015 as The Good Dinosaur opens Wednesday for the long Thanksgiving weekend. Indeed this is the first time the Disney owned franchise has put out a double feature in one year and this summer’s Inside Out was the studio’s second highest domestic grosser with $356 million in sales.

The Good Dinosaur has the good fortune of being about dinosaurs in a very strong year for them as Jurassic World ruled the summer frame. Disney has played the Turkey Day box office game before to fine results: 2010’s Tangled made $48 million for the three day weekend and $68 million for the Wednesday to Sunday portion and 2013’s Frozen earned $67 million for the traditional weekend with a $93 million five day gross.

Where will this roam in comparison to those titles? I don’t see this making as much as Frozen, which had rapturous reviews. Dinosaur has received positive notices so far, but not to the fawning level of Frozen (or Inside Out for that matter). I do, however, think it’ll manage to outdo what Tangled did five years ago. I’ll forecast a three day debut in the mid to high 50s with a high 70s gross for the extended frame. That could put it in close competition for the #1 spot with the final Hunger Games, depending on how that performs this weekend and how it holds up in its second.

The Good Dinosaur opening weekend prediction: $56.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $78.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Creed prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/19/creed-box-office-prediction/

For my Victor Frankenstein prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/19/victor-frankenstein-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: November 20-22

The fourth and final installment of the wildly successful Hunger Games franchise debuts this weekend with Mockingjay – Part 2. Additionally, we have openers with the raunchy Christmas comedy The Night Before featuring Seth Rogen and Joseph Gordon-Levitt and thriller Secret in Their Eyes with Chiwetel Ejiofor, Nicole Kidman, and Julia Roberts. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/12/the-hunger-games-mockingjay-part-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/the-night-before-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/secret-in-their-eyes-box-office-prediction/

Jennifer Lawrence and company should very easily top the charts and I’ve predicted the second Mockingjay edition will just manage to top what part 1 opened at.

The real battle could be for #2 as holdover champs Spectre and The Peanuts Movie could compete for the runner-up spot with The Night Before. As for Secret in Their Eyes, this seems to be flying under the radar and I have it a close competition for the five spot with the sophomore weekend of Love the Coopers.

And with that, a top six predictions for the weekend:

  1. Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2

Predicted Gross: $124.2 million

2. The Night Before

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

3. Spectre

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. The Peanuts Movie

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Love the Coopers

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 35%)

6. Secret in Their Eyes

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

Box Office Results (November 13-15)

As anticipated, Spectre and The Peanuts Movie continued to dominate the box office, though the 24th 007 adventure held up a bit better and the Charlie Brown family pic dipped a little further than my projections. Meanwhile, all three new entries didn’t meet my estimates.

Spectre held the top spot for the second weekend in a row with $33.6 million, above my $30.4M prediction for a two week total of $128M while The Peanuts Movie earned $24 million for second place, under my $28.9M projection. Peanuts has made $82M so far.

Third place belonged to newcomer Christmas ensemble comedy Love the Coopers with a middling $8.3 million, under my $11.3M forecast. Ridley Scott’s The Martian was fourth in its seventh weekend with $6.7 million. My estimate? $6.7M! Gold star! That Matt Damon mega-hit stands at $207M domestically. The Chilean mining drama The 33 stumbled with just $5.7 million for fifth place, well under my generous $10M projection.

Finally, the football drama My All-American was DOA for an 11th place showing with only $1.3 million compared to my $3.8M estimate.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Secret in Their Eyes Box Office Prediction

Even with its high profile cast of Oscar nominees and winners, this Friday’s Secret in Their Eyes may well be another fall 2015 adult themed title that fails to bring in an audience of any major significance. The film, from Breach director and Hunger Games and Captain Phillips screenwriter Billy Ray, is an FBI thriller based on an Oscar-winning 2009 Argentine effort and this remake stars Chiwetel Ejiofor, Nicole Kidman, and Julia Roberts.

Secret seems to be flying pretty far under the radar and it’s picked up zero Oscar buzz, which could have helped. As mentioned, we’ve seen adult themed titles with big stars like Our Brand is Crisis, Burnt, and Steve Jobs all stumble recently and I have a feeling this is headed down a similar path.

Secret in Their Eyes opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million

For my The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/12/the-hunger-games-mockingjay-part-2-box-office-prediction/

For my The Night Before prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/the-night-before-box-office-prediction/

The Night Before Box Office Prediction

The second Christmas comedy in as many weeks hits screens next Friday as The Night Before opens. Unlike Love the Coopers, which looks like a safe and tame entry in the genre, this is one is a hard R rated experience which stars Seth Rogen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Anthony Mackie, Lizzy Caplan, Mindy Kaling, and even Miley Cyrus. Jonathan Levine is behind the camera and he’s directed Rogen and Gordon-Levitt before in 50/50. It’s co-written by Evan Goldberg, who’s collaborated with Rogen on Superbad, Pineapple Express, This is the End, and The Interview.

The trailers and TV spots for The Night Before are pretty successful at making this seem like good and raunchy holiday fun. How well that translates into immediate box office dollars is a valid question. It does have serious competition in the form of the final Hunger Games pic and that could eat into its opening weekend gross. Anything above $20 million out of the gate would be a little surprising to me. I’ll predict this manages somewhere in the mid teens as it hopes to play well over the next few weekends leading to Christmas.

The Night Before opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million

For my The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/12/the-hunger-games-mockingjay-part-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Secret in Their Eyes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/secret-in-their-eyes-box-office-prediction/