20 years after its predecessor became the biggest summer hit of 1996 (and the year for that matter), the long gestating sequel Independence Day: Resurgence invades theaters next weekend. Long gestating? Absolutely. Long awaited? That remains to be seen.
Disaster director extraordinaire Roland Emmerich is back behind the camera for the reported $200 million budget alien pic and he’s brought along some of the original cast from two decades ago. That includes Jeff Goldblum, Bill Pullman, Judd Hirsch, Brent Spiner and Vivica A. Fox mixed in with new cast members Liam Hemsworth, Jessie Usher, Sela Ward, and William Fichtner. Conspicuously missing? Will Smith, whose character has been killed off (not a spoiler: the trailers say so). This wouldn’t have been the case if the Fresh Prince had signed up, but he’s got a more breathlessly anticipated summer ’16 flick coming with Suicide Squad.
The original was a phenomenon that took in $306 million domestically, which is equivalent to nearly $600 million today adjusted for inflation. Comparing the opening of the first Day is a tricky proposition. Independence Day opened on a Tuesday over the long Fourth of July weekend, generating $96 million over its six day roll-out. The Friday to Sunday take was $50 million.
Resurgence faces challenges that the first one did not. Will Smith was an emerging box office sensation at the time of release and he’s nowhere to be seen here. This summer has proven that there’s a touch of sequelitis occurring at the multiplex. Then there’s this – will younger audiences turn out in droves when part 1 was released when they were in diapers or before they were born?
While Resurgence shouldn’t have too much trouble topping that $50 million figure earned in the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, it’s highly unlikely to reach the over $300M accomplished by the first one. I’ll predict an opening gross in the low to mid 60s for a so-so debut.
Independence Day: Resurgence opening weekend prediction: $63.5 million
For my Free State of Jones prediction, click here:
Disney/Pixar looks to have their biggest debut ever while Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Kevin Hart team up for an action comedy as Finding Dory and Central Intelligence premiere this weekend. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
My estimates do have that animated fish pulling off Pixar’s largest opening weekend haul with Intelligence performing similarly to Hart’s two last pics, Ride Along 2 and Get Hard.
As for holdovers, I look for current champ The Conjuring 2 to lose about half its audience. Another sequel, Now You See Me 2, should experience a better sophomore hold than Warcraft.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Finding Dory
Predicted Gross: $117.3 million
2. Central Intelligence
Predicted Gross: $34.1 million
3. The Conjuring 2
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)
4. Now You See Me 2
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 44%)
5. Warcraft
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 63%)
Box Office Results (June 10-12)
Horror fans turned out for The Conjuring 2 as it debuted on top with $40.4 million, just below my $42.6 million estimate and just under the $41.5 million that the original made in its first weekend in 2013.
The video game based Warcraft managed a pretty minor debut with $24.1 million – though it did barely outdo my $23.3M projection. Mostly scathing reviews and poor word of mouth didn’t help for the mega-budget production, but it is doing well overseas.
Another sequel to a 2013 hit, Now You See Me 2, came in third with $22.3 million. I went just over with a $24.1M forecast. This doesn’t match the $29 million that the first made.
Last weekend’s #1 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows slipped to fourth with $14.3 million, on target with my $14.4M prediction for an underwhelming two week tally of $60M.
X-Men: Apocalypse was fifth with $9.9 million (I said $10.4M) for a $136M total and Me Before You was sixth with $9 million (I said $10M) for a gross of $36M.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Warner Bros. is banking that audiences want to find themselves between a Rock and a Hart Place (get it?) when Central Intelligence opens next weekend. The action comedy is headlined by Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart and hopes to become the first breakout comedy of summer 2016. Rawson Marshall Thurber directs and he’s had success in the genre before with Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story and We’re the Millers. Costars include Amy Ryan and Aaron Paul.
As mentioned, this season so far has not been kind to comedies as Neighbors 2, The Nice Guys, and Popstar have all performed with unimpressive results. The one two punch of Johnson and Hart should be a benefit. Hart’s last two pics, Ride Along 2 and Get Hard, both debuted in the mid-30s. While some of the parents that this film is marketing to might be busy taking their little ones to Finding Dory, I don’t see much reason why this wouldn’t accomplish similar results.
A decent comp could be last summer’s Spy with Melissa McCarthy, which opened to $29 million. I’ll say Central Intelligence manages to outdo it and be more in range with Hart’s recent efforts.
Central Intelligence opening weekend prediction: $34.1 million
Thirteen years after the original made a major splash at the box office, Finding Dory hits theaters next weekend and looks to reinvigorate a somewhat slumping marketplace. The Disney/Pixar release is, of course, the sequel to 2003’s now classic Finding Nemo. Director Andrew Stanton is back, as are the voices of Ellen DeGeneres and Albert Brooks. Plenty of other familiar faces make their voices heard here – Diane Keaton, Bill Hader, Idris Elba, Eugene Levy, Kate McKinnon, Ty Burrell, Ed O’Neill, and Dominic West among them.
The summer of 2016 has seen a host of sequels not matching up to their originals. Some of them have been family programming, like Alice Through the Looking Glass and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows.
It is highly likely that Dory will not suffer the same fate. In fact, the real question seems to be whether or not this will score Pixar’s largest opening weekend in its now 21 year history. That honor currently belongs to another sequel, 2010’s Toy Story 3, which debuted with $110.3 million. Dory is currently said to be tracking a bit above that. I believe it will surpass that number, but probably not by much (though with the sequelitis occurring recently, I do feel a touch of nervousness with this prediction). Still, if anything can break through – it’s this.
In order for it to score the second biggest animated premiere in history, it’d need to top the $115.7 million earned by last summer’s Minions. To get to #1, Dory would have to swim past the $121.6 million gross of Shrek the Third from 2007. It’s possible that it could achieve either one of those records.
I’ll predict Dory falls below Shrek and just above Minions to earn the #2 animated debut stateside and also set the Pixar record. That would go a long ways toward washing the bad taste out of the Mouse Factory’s mouths for Looking Glass and last fall’s The Good Dinosaur, which was the first Pixar title to lose money.
Finding Dory opening weekend prediction: $117.3 million
For my Central Intelligence prediction, click here:
Over Memorial Day weekend this year, Disney’s Alice Through the Looking Glass opened to an abysmal $33 million over the holiday weekend, immediately making it one of the biggest bombs of 2016. How poor was that opening? It’s the sequel to 2010’s Alice in Wonderland, which made $116 million in its first weekend (which was a three-day frame, not a four-day one). Looking Glass will be lucky to make $80M in its entire domestic run, nearly $40M under what Wonderland earned in its premiere weekend. Ouch.
Is there an easy explanation? Did Disney take too long with the six year hiatus between franchise entries? Perhaps. Did the negative tabloid publicity surrounding star Johnny Depp hurt? Maybe.
Yet another explanation is likely part of the equation. In 2016, moviegoers have seemed to catch a case of “sequelitis” and their symptoms have been affecting box office grosses for a number of pictures already this year.
Over that same Memorial Day weekend, X-Men: Apocalypse ruled the charts with a $79 million debut. That would seem impressive, except X-Men: Days of Future Past made $110 million over the same weekend just two years earlier.
This story has repeated itself repeatedly in recent months. Ride Along 2 was expected to build on its predecessor’s opening weekend. The 2014 original cruised to a $41M opening. The sequel: $35M. When all was said and done, the first Ride made $44M more than its follow-up.
Other comedies have suffered the same fate. 2001’s Zoolander actually only made $45 million in its initial run, but became a major cult hit in subsequent years. It’s long gestating sequel would surely earn more. It didn’t. Just $28M.
2002’s My Big Fat Greek Wedding became the unexpected smash of that year with $241M stateside. Part 2? $59 million (to be fair, this was on the higher end of many expectations, but still just 25% of what the first Wedding did).
2014’s Neighbors? $150 million. Last month’s Neighbors: Sorority Rising? It should top out at around $60M.
Barbershop: The Next Cut will make $55 million, under the $75M and $65M of its predecessors (though still not bad).
The action crowd has showed their ambivalence. London Has Fallen earned a just OK $62 million compared to Olympus Has Fallen‘s $98M.
2014’s Divergent made $150 million. 2015’s Insurgent: $130 million. This year’s Allegiant: a troubling $66 million.
Then there’s The Huntsman Winter’s War, which may not even reach $50 million. It’s the sequel to Snow White and the Huntsman, which made $155 million.
Just this weekend, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows took in $35 million in its debut, which is a shell of the $65 million that the first made two summers ago.
Faith based audiences propelled God’s Not Dead to a heavenly $60 million gross in 2014. Part 2? $20 million.
Kung Fu Panda 3 performed decently with $143 million, but couldn’t match part 1’s $215M or part 2’s $165M.
Seeing a trend here, folks?
There have been rare exceptions in 2016 so far. 10 Cloverfield Lane managed $72 million. Even though that’s below the $80M of Cloverfield, it’s still a solid gross and a profitable venture for its studio.
And Captain America: Civil War was widely expected to outdo the respective $176M and $259M earnings of the first two entries. This was due to it basically being The Avengers 3. It did and will top $400M domestically.
Coming this weekend: two more sequels will try to avoid the 2016 trend and both actually have a decent chance of succeeding. The Conjuring 2 is receiving positive reviews and its studio is hoping the goodwill left over from the 2013 original will propel it to similar grosses (I’m predicting it’ll make $42 million for its start, slightly above the first).
Now You See Me 2 is hoping to match the $29 million made by the 2013 original for its beginning. I’m predicting $24M.
If both of these titles come in below expectations, that may truly show that crowds are just plain sick and tired of seeing roman numerals and numbers behind titles. Looking over the remainder of the 2016 calendar, there’s a heap of sequels that could also struggle to match what came before them. They include:
The Purge: Election Year. Bridget Jones’s Baby. Underworld: Blood Wars. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back. Ouija 2. Bad Santa 2.
Even this month’s Independence Day: Resurgence is an iffy proposition to capitalize on the nostalgia factor from the 1996 original. It appears unlikely to match the $306M earned 20 years ago by the first one.
Next month’s Star Trek Beyond could have trouble matching the $228M made by part 2 in 2013.
Inferno, the third Tom Hanks thriller based on Dan Brown’s novels, is a question mark to match the $133M that Angels & Demons made in 2011 and certainly won’t approach The Da Vinci Code‘s $217M a decade ago.
When it comes to 2016 sequels, it might not all be bad news. Finding Dory (out June 17) shouldn’t have much trouble topping the $70M that Nemo made in 2003 (though whether it reaches its eventual gross of $380M is a mystery).
And July’s Jason Bourne should benefit from having Matt Damon return to the franchise after nine years away. It should manage to outpace the $113M made by Jeremy Renner’s The Bourne Legacy in 2012. However, could it approach the $227M earned by Damon’s last one, 2007’s The Bourne Ultimatum? Probably not.
Perhaps these disappointing results for so many sequels will cause studios to give us more original programming, but don’t hold your breath. Next year is already packed with follow-ups and some of them already look like they could be in trouble.
For instance, it’s probably safe to assume Disney is sweating over the fifth Pirates of the Caribbean flick, Dead Men Tell No Tales. Same goes for Lionsgate with their final Divergent pic, Ascendant.
Some of the 2017 sequels that may not have much to worry about: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. Fast 8. And, of course, Star Wars: Episode VIII.
Yet given the recent trends, who knows? No one thought Alice or Huntsman or Allegiantwould do that poorly and it’s contributed to a bad… and maybe badly needed downturn for sequels in 2016.
The attack of the sequels continues in the second weekend of June 2016 as The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2 debut. Both are follow-ups to massive summer 2013 hits and both will attempt to match or outdo their predecessors out of the gate. And there’s the long-awaited Warcraft, based on the two decades old video game with a fervent following. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, the three newbies should populate the top 3 spots this weekend. However, other prognosticators may differ with my placement of them. I have Conjuring 2 slightly outpacing the original and rather easily placing first. On the other hand, I’m predicting Now You See Me 2 will come in a bit under the $29M accomplished by its predecessor and finish second.
Warcraft is the biggest question mark, in my estimation. Even with its devoted fan base, word of mouth has been troubling, competition is fierce, and I’m having difficulty seeing it expand beyond its core audience. That puts it third in my book in a photo finish with Now You See Me 2.
After an unimpressive opening (more on that below), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows should drop to fourth. The five spot could be a close one between the third weekend of X-Men: Apocalypse and the second weekend of Me Before You, which performed quite well in its debut.
And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend:
The Conjuring 2
Predicted Gross: $42.6 million
2. Now You See Me 2
Predicted Gross: $24.1 million
3. Warcraft
Predicted Gross: $23.3 million
4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million (representing a drop of 59%)
5. X-Men: Apocalypse
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)
6. Me Before You
Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 47%)
Box Office Results (June 3-5)
There was little question that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows would rule the weekend, but its eventual take was none too impressive. The sequel made $35.3 million, well below my $50.3M prediction. Shadows continues the 2016 trend of sequels coming in considerably below their predecessors. The 2014 reboot of the franchise made $65M in its opening weekend.
X-Men: Apocalypse (another sequel not matching its previous entry) dropped to second with $22.8 million, a bit under my $25.3M forecast for a two-week total of $116M.
The British romantic drama Me Before You had an impressive roll-out with $18.7 million compared to my meager $11.5M estimate. The film, which received mostly positive reviews, was the beneficiary of a sizable female turnout in a sea of the mostly male-driven material populating the multiplexes.
Alice Through the Looking Glass continued its putrid run in weekend #2 with $11.3 million, though it did top my $10M prediction. The Disney bomb has grossed just $51 million in ten days… less than half of what 2010’s Alice in Wonderland earned in its first weekend.
The Angry Birds Movie was fifth with $10.2 million (in line with my $9.8M projection) for an $87M tally so far.
Captain America: Civil War was sixth with $7.8 million (I said $7.6M) for a total of $389M and $400M right around the corner.
I did a top seven predictions for this weekend and incorrectly had under performing Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising outside that group. It placed 7th with $4.8 million for an overall $48M gross.
That’s because I had Andy Samberg’s Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping at seventh, yet it charted in 8th with a weak $4.6 million opening (I said $5.6M).
The theme of the new releases for the second week of June 2016 have major ties to the summer of 2013. The Conjuring 2 is the sequel to the horror hit that came out that season three years ago. Now You See Me 2 is the follow-up to the surprise blockbuster that also hit screens that same season. Where we can find a Summer 2013 connection to Warcraft?
Well, it may be just M. Night Shyamalan’s After Earth. If that sounds like a bad omen, you wouldn’t be wrong. The pic is, of course, based on the wildly popular video game series that dates back to 1994. That game has spawned comics, cards, magazines, and more and has a highly faithful fan base. It was only a matter of time before it got the big screen treatment and Universal Pictures tapped Duncan Jones to make it. Mr. Jones (son of David Bowie) is known for critically lauded sci-fi entries Moon and Source Code. Travis Fimmel, Paula Patton, Ben Foster, and Dominic Cooper are among the humans battling lots of CG creatures.
Warcraft comes with a giant budget of $160 million. It also comes with mostly negative word of mouth and reviews (it sits at just 24% on Rotten Tomatoes). The film will need a very strong showing by its devotees to avoid being a costly dud and that could be a tall order. The love for the game could push this higher than my prediction, but I’m skeptical. Competition is strong with the aforementioned sequels to The Conjuring and Now You See Me.
The comparison to After Earth could be apt as it was another big-budget genre tale with poor reviews and troubling buzz. That Will Smith title made $27.5 million for its start and I believe Warcraft could have trouble matching even that.
Warcraft opening weekend prediction: $23.3 million
Three summers ago, the magic caper Now You See Me came out of nowhere with a $29 million opening and eventual $117M domestic gross. This was probably never looked at by Summit Entertainment as a potential franchise, but those numbers mean sequel and Now You See Me 2 is out next weekend. Lex Luthor (Jesse Eisenberg), Hulk (Mark Ruffalo), Alfred (Michael Caine), and Lucius Fox (Morgan Freeman) are all back, as are Woody Harrelson and Dave Franco. Lizzy Caplan and Harry Potter himself (Daniel Radcliffe) join the party. Jon M. Chu, whose varied credits include Justin Bieber: Never Say Never and G.I. Joe: Retaliation, takes over directorial duties from Louis Leterrier.
Unlike 2013, NYSM2 comes with expectations and also with stiff competition. Another sequel to a summer 2013 hit, The Conjuring 2, should have the leg up for opening weekend earnings and there’s also the high-profile Warcraft competing for eyeballs.
While I have the Conjuring follow-up slightly outdoing its predecessor out of the gate, I’ll predict this sequel comes in a bit under what the original accomplished for what will still be a pretty decent debut.
Now You See Me 2 opening weekend prediction: $24.1 million
Shane Black knows his way around kick ass action flicks injected with humor – much of it loaded with profanity, kids in danger, and booze and cigarettes. This is the man who wrote Lethal Weapon and The Last Boy Scout and The Long Kiss Goodnight. Fans of Black can spot the rhythm of his screenplays a mile away. I suspect, by the way, that Quentin Tarantino was influenced by some of Black’s beats for his later compositions.
In 2005, he directed his first feature, Kiss Kiss Bang Bang. It was an often hilariously trippy private eye tale for the ages and truly ushered in the comeback of one Robert Downey Jr. (with a glorious Val Kilmer at his side). The Nice Guys puts the auteur right back in Bang Bang territory after a nice excursion into blockbuster land with 2010’s Iron Man 3.
For admirers who have gobbled up Black’s words over the past three decades, this is a return to form that doesn’t quite match his finest work. Yet it’s satisfying nonetheless and contains some real laugh out loud moments. This is a buddy flick that would’ve been right at home being made in the 1980s, but it’s set in 1977 Los Angeles. Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling are both private eyes. Neither is exceptionally bright and in true Black fashion, Gosling’s teenage daughter is often the smartest person in the room. Crowe is more an enforcer who transacts business through broken bones. Gosling is more of a con artist.
The pair become embroiled in a dense plot that involves murdered porn stars, an endangered porn actress whose Mom (Kim Basinger) runs the Justice Department, and an assortment of goons and henchman who would be right at home tormenting Bruce Willis and Damon Wayans in Last Boy Scout. The plot is secondary in these proceedings to the dialogue.
Black revels in these shady characters who occasionally experience flashes of humanity. Not too much though and that’s what we kind of hope for and expect. One character gives up his years long sobriety by our conclusion and it’s practically treated as a moment of valor. I wouldn’t have it any other way from the guy behind the camera and typewriter (he probably doesn’t use a typewriter anymore, but I prefer to believe otherwise).
Crowe and Gosling seem to be having a ball, too. Matt Bomer stands out as the most memorable henchman in a pic filled with disposable ones. There were more lines and setups that killed in Kiss Kiss to put it on another level from this. There’s more than enough of that bloody Black humor to make this worthwhile, including the most unexpected use of Richard Nixon since at least Point Break.
Three summers ago, The Conjuring became one of the most highly regarded horror titles in recent years with critics and audiences alike. Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga return as real life paranormal investigators Ed and Lorraine Warren and this inevitable sequel focuses on one of their most famous cases circa London in the late 1970s. James Wan, who directed the original as well as the first two Insidious flicks and last year’s Furious 7, is back behind the camera. His history with horror sequels is pretty great. Insidious made $13 million in its premiere. The sequel made $40 million.
The first entry conjured up a fantastic $41 million opening and topped out at $137M domestically. Warner Bros. would love a repeat performance and they may well get one. Even the critically derided Conjuring spin-off Annabelle took in a robust $37 million for its start. One potential stumbling block: competition is a little more fierce this time around with Now You See Me 2 (another sequel to a sleeper summer 2013 blockbuster) and Warcraft (which will be going for many of the same moviegoers) opening directly against it.
That said, I believe the goodwill left over from the first will get this in the same range of its predecessor for a frighteningly solid start.
The Conjuring 2 opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million
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