Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

Box Office Predictions: July 27-29

Tom Cruise and his IMF forces are back in theaters for the sixth time as Mission: Impossible – Fallout debuts this weekend along with the superhero animated tale Teen Titans! Go To the Movies. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/17/mission-impossible-fallout-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/18/teen-titans-go-to-the-movies-box-office-prediction/

Fallout is getting some of the best reviews that the 22-year-old franchise has ever received and the Ethan Hunt adventure should easily top the charts with a low to mid 60s haul.

It’s the #2 spot that could be a little more interesting. In a bit of a surprise this past weekend, The Equalizer 2 edged by Mamma Mia! Here Go Again for the #1 position. However, Fallout provides more direct competition for Denzel and it’s likely that Mamma retains the runner-up position with Equalizer falling to third.

And that’s only if Teen Titans doesn’t manage to outperform my estimate. My forecast for it has dwindled over the last few days and my low teens expectation could put it in a close battle for fourth with the third weekend of Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation. 

Here’s how I see the top five playing out:

1. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $63.6 million

2. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

3. The Equalizer 2

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

4. Teen Titans! Go To the Movies

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

5. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation 

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

Box Office Results (July 20-22) 

Denzel Washington continued to prove his box office potency as The Equalizer 2 was a surprise #1 over Mamma Mia with $36 million, easily outpacing my $26.8 million estimate. That tops the $34 million earned out of the gate by its predecessor. With the Mission competition coming up, I expect this to drop approximately 50%.

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, despite failing to place first, opened right in line with expectations with a pleasing $34.9 million. That’s a bit higher than my $33.5 million estimate. As stated above, I expect it to maintain its #2 position this weekend.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation dropped to third with $23.7 million in its sophomore frame for $91 million total. That’s on target with my $24.5 million prediction.

Ant-Man and the Wasp was fourth with $16.5 million (I said $15.2 million) to bring its tally to $165 million.

Incredibles 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The Pixar record breaker took in $11.8 million and it’s up to $557 million.

I mistakenly had Skyscraper in the top 5, but it was sixth with $11.3 million (a tad under my $12 million projection). The underwhelming Dwayne Johnson action pic has made $47 million.

Lastly, Unfriended: Dark Web couldn’t generate an audience with just $3.4 million (I went higher at $5.1 million). That said, the Blumhouse horror sequel reportedly only cost $1 million, so I’m sure the studio isn’t sweating it too much.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies Box Office Prediction

***Blogger’s Note II (07/26): On the eve of its premiere, I’m bumping my estimate back up from $13.4M to $16.4M

**Blogger’s Note (07/20): My estimate for Titans has dwindled from $17.4M to just $13.4M. That could mean a debut in the lower rungs of the top 5.

Teen Titans Go! To The Movies attempts to be the next animated hit of the summer when it debuts next weekend. This is a big screen version of the Cartoon Network’s series that debuted five years ago focusing on some fresh DC Comics superheroes. The cast of the show is here to voice their characters including Greg Cipes, Scott Menville, Khary Payton, Tara Strong, and Hynden Walch. And we have some familiar faces joining the voice over party including Kristen Bell, Will Arnett, Jimmy Kimmel as Batman, James Corden, Halsey, and Lil Yachty. Nicolas Cage, who was supposed to play the Man of Steel in a scrapped live-action Tim Burton pic nearly two decades ago, finally gets to be Superman.

Fans of the series won’t propel this to the heights of other animated efforts this season like Incredibles 2 or Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation. While Mission: Impossible – Fallout will undoubtedly dominate the charts next weekend, Titans will make a go for the #2 spot over holdovers Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and The Equalizer 2. 

A mid to high teens gross might be enough to achieve it and that’s the ballpark where I have this landing.

Teens Titans Go! To The Movies opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million

For my Mission: Impossible – Fallout prediction, click here:

Mission: Impossible – Fallout Box Office Prediction

Mission: Impossible – Fallout Box Office Prediction

Now in its 22nd year of existence, Tom Cruise’s signature franchise keeps rolling along as Mission: Impossible – Fallout, the sixth offering in the series debuts stateside next weekend. Christopher McQuarrie is the first director to come back behind the camera (he made 2015’s predecessor Rogue Nation) for repeat work after Brian De Palma, John Woo, J.J. Abrams, and Brad Bird made their stand-alone entries. Returning cast members from previous installments include Rebecca Ferguson, Simon Pegg, Ving Rhames, Michelle Monaghan, and Alec Baldwin. Newcomers include Henry Cavill and Angela Bassett.

The buzz for Fallout indicates it could be a high mark in the long running franchise. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 93% with some critics claiming it’s the best of the bunch thus far. It’s particularly being praised for its action scenes and stunt work (which actually caused its mega-watt star to break an ankle on set). Even with the generous helping of sequels and genre pics out there (Skyscraper will be in its third weekend of release with The Equalizer 2 in its second), this series seems to be going strong.

In order to achieve the largest opening of all the M:I features, Fallout would need to top the $57 million achieved 18 years ago by part 2. Rogue Nation came close three summers ago with $55 million. I believe this should have enough juice to do so with a low to mid 60s gross.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout opening weekend prediction: $63.6 million

For my Teen Titans Go! To the Movies prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/18/teen-titans-go-to-the-movies-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: July 20-22

In a summer season filled with them, we have our most sequel heavy weekend ahead of us as Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, The Equalizer 2, and Unfriended: Dark Web all debut on Friday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/10/mamma-mia-here-we-go-again-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/10/the-equalizer-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/11/unfriended-dark-web-box-office-prediction/

Both Mamma and Equalizer will attempt to unseat current sequel champ Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation from the top spot. The former seems to have the edge, while Denzel Washington’s first sequel ever should place second. That puts Adam Sandler’s animated flick in third with Ant-Man and the Wasp and the underwhelming Skyscraper rounding out the top five.

The low theater count for Unfriended means my $5.1 million estimate leaves it lurking outside of the high five. Here is my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Predicted Gross: $33.5 million

2. The Equalizer 2

Predicted Gross: $26.8 million

3. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Predicted Gross: $24.5 million

4. Ant-Man and the Wasp

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

5. Skyscraper

Predicted Gross: $12 million

Box Office Results (July 13-15)

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation opened right in line with expectations at #1 with $44 million (I said $43.6 million). The third iteration of Adam Sandler and his monster friends could see a slightly larger decline in weekend #2 than its predecessors due to summer competition. They respectively fell 36% and 31% and I’ve got this pegged around 44%.

Ant-Man and the Wasp dropped to second in its sophomore frame and was swatted a bit harder than I figured at $29 million compared to my $33.4 million prediction. The MCU sequel stands at $133 million currently.

Dwayne Johnson’s Skyscraper opened below expectations in third with $24.9 million, well under my $33.2 million projection. Mixed reviews and (perhaps) a bit of overexposure for the star could have hurt it a bit.

Incredibles 2 was fourth with $16.2 million (I was close at $16.6 million) for a grand total of $535 million.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom was right behind in fifth with $16.1 million (higher than my $14.2 million forecast) for $363 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Unfriended: Dark Web Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (07/13): Today the expected theater count of only 1500 was released for Unfriended: Dark Web. This alters my estimate from $8.1 million all the way down to $5.1 million.

Found footage horror sequel Unfriended: Dark Web is uploaded into theaters next Friday in a weekend filled with other high-profile sequels. From Blumhouse, a production company that specializes in turning low-budget genre fare into profitable hits, this is the follow-up to the 2015 effort that became a sizable performer. The original debuted to over $15 million and ended up with just over $32 million domestically. If that doesn’t automatically sound like cause for a sequel, keep in mind that part 1 was reportedly made for only $1 million.

Stephen Susco, best known for writing The Grudge and its part 2, makes his directorial debut. The stand-alone sequel’s cast includes Colin Woodell, Betty Gabriel (best known as the creepy housekeeper in Get Out), and Rebecca Rittenhouse. Of the three sequels coming out next weekend, Dark Web will surely rank third behind Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and The Equalizer 2.

I also don’t expect it to pull the numbers of its predecessor and it will likely struggle to earn double digits out of the gate. That said, it’s a risk to underestimate Blumhouse. I’ll still say its opening is just about over half of what Unfriended accomplished.

Unfriended: Dark Web opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million

For my The Equalizer 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/10/the-equalizer-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/10/mamma-mia-here-we-go-again-box-office-prediction/

The Equalizer 2 Box Office Prediction

Denzel Washington is back in action mode when The Equalizer 2 is released next weekend. In his decades long career filled with numerous hits, this is actually the first ever sequel for the star. Antoine Fuqua is back directing and it’s the fourth collaboration between two after 2001’s Training Day (for which Washington won an Oscar), 2014’s The Equalizer, and 2016’s The Magnificent Seven. Costars include Melissa Leo, Pedro Pascal, Ashton Sanders, and Bill Pullman.

When it comes to the action genre, few actors are as bankable as Denzel. The first Equalizer, which is based quite loosely a 1980s TV show starring Edward Woodward, made $34.1 million for its start and ended up at $101 million overall domestically. Two years later, The Magnificent Seven took in $34.7 million out of the gate and $93 million total. Nearly all of Washington’s titles in the genre in the past decade or so have achieved mid 20s or more in their premieres.

While The Equalizer 2 may face a challenge scoring a #1 opening over a very different follow-up (Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again), a high 20s to possibly low 30s roll out seems quite achievable.

The Equalizer 2 opening weekend prediction: $26.8 million

For my Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/10/mamma-mia-here-we-go-again-box-office-prediction/

For my Unfriended: Dark Web prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/11/unfriended-dark-web-box-office-prediction/

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again Box Office Prediction

Arriving just over 10 years to the day after its predecessor, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again dances into theaters next weekend, looking to be queen of the box office over other sequel competition. The 2008 original was based on a popular stage musical incorporating the music of Swedish super group ABBA and it turned into a behemoth at the multiplex. Returning cast members include Meryl Streep (in her first ever sequel), Amanda Seyfried, Pierce Brosnan, Colin Firth, Christine Baranski, Julie Walters, Stellan Skarsgard, and Dominic Cooper. Newbies include Lily James, Andy Garcia, and Cher. Ol Parker takes over directorial duties from Phyllida Lloyd.

Mamma Mia! held the distinction of being the highest grossing live-action musical of all time until 2017’s Beauty and the Beast topped it. It opened to $27.7 million and legged out quite well to a $144 million domestic total. The worldwide haul was a fantastic $615 million. Ten years is a significant gap between sequels, but the fan base seems likely to turn out and there’s little else marketing an older and female crowd. Two others sequels debuting over the weekend – The Equalizer 2 and Unfriended: Dark Web – are going for different demographics.

It seems reasonable to me that Again could debut about 20% higher than the first and it remains to be seen if it holds as well as part 1 in subsequent weekends.

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again opening weekend prediction: $33.5 million

For my The Equalizer 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/10/the-equalizer-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Unfriended: Dark Web prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/11/unfriended-dark-web-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: July 13-15

Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation and Dwayne Johnson’s action pic Skyscraper debut this weekend in what could be an interesting battle for #1 and especially #2 at the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/03/hotel-transylvania-3-summer-vacation-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/03/skyscraper-box-office-prediction/

My low 40s estimate for Transylvania puts it in the pole position to top the charts. However, if it were to come in under expectations  and not reach the numbers of its predecessors, the door could be open for Ant-Man and the Wasp (in its sophomore frame) or Skyscraper to be a spoiler. It’s dangerous to underestimate the drawing potency of Johnson, but my low 30s projection for his latest puts Skyscraper in a razor-thin battle for #2 with Marvel’s latest.

Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom should be 4th and 5th.

And with that, my projections for the weekend’s top 5:

1. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Predicted Gross: $43.6 million

2. Ant-Man and the Wasp

Predicted Gross: $33.4 million

3. Skyscraper

Predicted Gross: $33.2 million

4. Incredibles 2

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

5. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

Box Office Results (July 6-8) 

The Marvel Cinematic Universe is 20 for 20 as far as #1 openers as Ant-Man and the Wasp buzzed in with $75.8 million, falling under my $86.4 million projection. That debut is on the lower end of expectations for the sequel and ranks 16th out of 20 for MCU openers. That said, it still managed to gross nearly $20 million more than its 2015 predecessor for its start. I expect it to fall in the mid 50s in weekend #2, creating a photo finish with Skyscraper for the runner-up spot to Transylvania. 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom fell to second after two weeks on top with $28.6 million (I was close at $28.2 million) to brings it tally to $333 million.

Incredibles 2 was close behind in third with $28.4 million (I said $27.8 million) as the Pixar phenom crossed the $500 million mark at $503 million. In just four weeks, it is already the studio’s largest earner surpassing Finding Dory. 

The First Purge was fourth and continued the franchise’s run of high grosses compared to their low budgets. The Blumhouse horror pic took in $17.3 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend compared to my $22.8 million estimate. It opened on Wednesday and has taken in $31.2 million for the five-day overall. I was much closer on that figure with my $31.4 million prediction.

Sicario: Day of the Soldado took quite a hit in its second weekend. It was fifth after dropping 60% to $7.6 million (I was higher with $10.1 million). It’s total is $35 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Skyscraper Box Office Prediction

Dwayne Johnson has built quite a box office list of hits over the past few months with titles like The Fate of the Furious, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, and Rampage. As for Baywatch… well, nobody’s perfect. Next weekend sees the release of Skyscraper, an action film which appears to be heavily influenced by The Towering Inferno and Die Hard. The pic is directed by Rawson Marshall Thurber who’s best known for comedies like Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story, We’re the Millers, and Central Intelligence (his 2016 blockbuster collaboration with Johnson). Costars include Neve Campbell, Chin Han, Roland Moller, Pablo Schreiber, and Noah Taylor.

Johnson’s last two efforts (Jungle and Rampage) both opened in the mid 30s. However, that’s a little misleading with Jumanji as it opened in a massively crowded Christmas frame and legged out to a gross of over $400 million. Rampage, on the other hand, sits at $98 million total. Central Intelligence, by the way, also premiered in the range at $35 million.

I don’t see any compelling reason why Skyscraper would debut over those titles. And I also don’t see much reason why it would open too far under them. The PG-13 rating should help bring in teens, though the second weekend of Ant–Man and the Wasp does present direct competition. I’ll project Skyscraper for a low to mid 30s start, right on pace with its lead’s other rock solid roll outs.

Skyscraper opening weekend prediction: $33.2 million

For my Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/03/hotel-transylvania-3-summer-vacation-box-office-prediction/

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation Box Office Prediction

Adam Sandler’s animated franchise is back in theaters next weekend when Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation debuts. The Sony Pictures series moves to the summer season after its first two entries managed to set records in the month of September. While its star’s live-action efforts have gone the Netflix route, part 3 looks to score with family audiences in a more crowded marketplace than the parts I and II went up against.

Genndy Tartakovsky is back in the director’s chair. Besides Sandler, returning voices include Andy Samberg, Selena Gomez, Kevin James, David Spade, Steve Buscemi, Keegan-Michael Key, Molly Shannon, Fran Drescher, Mel Brooks and newcomers Kathryn Hahn and Jim Gaffigan.

As mentioned, kids and their parents have been receptive to this 3D monster mash on two occasions. In September 2012, the original premiered to $42.5 million with eventual domestic earnings of $148 million. That set the all-time largest debut for that month. Three years later, Hotel Transylvania 2 opened in September 2015 and made $48.4 out of the gate to break the month’s record held by its predecessor. It ended up at $169 million. The series held the 1-2 September spot until last year when It obliterated the record.

When it comes to competition for eyeballs, Incredibles 2 should be winding down though still grossing in the mid to possibly high teens. Marvel’s Ant–Man and the Wasp will only be in its second weekend and likely going strong. That said, Transylvania has proven itself before and I imagine it too will manage a low to mid 40s start even with the change of seasons. By doing so, that should put it in line for the #1 spot over Ant–Man and the debut of Dwayne Johnson’s Skyscraper.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation opening weekend prediction: $43.6 million

For my Skyscraper prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/03/skyscraper-box-office-prediction/