Sony Pictures hopes to kick off a franchise and set an October opening record next weekend when Venom debuts. The picture’s namesake is an anti-hero spawned from the Spider-Man comics. Moviegoers first saw him in the form of Topher Grace in Spider–Man3. That rendering of the character didn’t sit too well with comic book aficionados.
The studio hopes this version changes that. Ruben Fleischer, best known for Zombieland, serves behind the camera. Playing Venom and his alter ego Eddie Brock is Tom Hardy. Costars include Michelle Williams, Riz Ahmed, Scott Haze, Reid Scott, Jenny Slate, and Woody Harrelson.
Sequels and spin-offs are hoped for and the marketing campaign has been pervasive. The reaction to trailers has been mostly positive, but word is that reviews won’t be published until the day before release. That’s not always a good sign. Similar buzz greeted SuicideSquad (among others) and it managed to meet expectations and gross $133 million in its first weekend. That stands as the largest August debut ever.
The correlation is that Venom could do the same in October, but estimates aren’t as high here. This is expected to gross between $60-$70 million. Even if it reached the low-end of that spectrum, this would top October record holder Gravity at $55 million. I’ll note that Halloween (out October 19) also stands a solid shot at exceeding that.
My feeling is this will meet projections, but on the lower end of the spectrum. How it performs in subsequent weekends will be dependent on buzz and that may be the biggest indicator on whether Sony gets its longed for cinematic universe.
**Blogger’s Note (09/27/18): My estimates for Night School and Smallfoot has risen slightly to $31.6 million and $23 million respectively.
It could be a battle for the #1 spot at the box office as September closes with the Kevin Hart/Tiffany Haddish comedy Night School and the animated Warner Bros family pic Smallfoot debuting. We also have the Halloween theme park set horror flick Hell Fest opening. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on the trio here:
Before we get to the heavy hitters, the Pure Flix version of Little Women is also out Friday on a low 600 or so screens. I didn’t do a separate post for it and I’m not expecting much out of it. I’ll put its premiere at just $1.1 million.
Kevin Hart has shown his potency at the box office repeatedly with several openings north of $30 million. I don’t have Night School reaching quite that high, but my mid to late 20s estimate is enough to project it will top the lower to mid 20s gross of Smallfoot.
Competition for Smallfoot will include the second weekend of The House with a Clock in Its Walls, which performed on the higher end of expectations out of the gate. It should drop to third place with A Simple Favor in fourth.
The five-spot is where I expect Hell Fest to compete. Horror movies always have the capacity to outdo expectations, but I’m not seeing much fanfare for this one. My mid single digits prediction could put it in range with the fourth weekend of The Nun.
And with that, a top 6 take on the weekend ahead:
1. Night School
Predicted Gross: $31.6 million
2. Smallfoot
Predicted Gross: $23 million
3. The House with a Clock in Its Walls
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million
4. A Simple Favor
Predicted Gross: $7 million
5. Hell Fest
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
6. The Nun
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (September 21-23)
As anticipated, The House with a Clock in Its Walls topped the charts with a solid $26.6 million (ahead of my $23.2 million take). The Jack Black family pic, as mentioned, hit the better end of estimates. Considering its reported $40 million budget, this should be a nice hit for Universal.
A Simple Favor elevated from third place to second place in its sophomore weekend with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.6 million projection. Its total stands at $32 million.
The Nun crossed the $100 million mark placing third with $9.9 million (ahead of my $8.4 million estimate). Only Annabelle of the Conjuring Cinematic Universe didn’t manage to join the century club and The Nun appears poised to be the franchise’s second largest earner behind The Conjuring.
The Predator dipped mightily in weekend #2 to fourth place with a 63% fall and $9.1 million (I said $10 million) for $40 million overall.
Crazy Rich Asians was fifth with $6.3 million (I went with $5.9 million) for $159 million overall.
The newcomers besides Clock all failed to connect with moviegoers. Michael Moore’s doc (despite significant publicity) was a flop. While Fahrenheit 9/11 took in nearly $24 million in its first weekend in the summer of 2004, 11/9 managed a paltry $3 million for 8th place. I predicted $5 million.
Life Itself couldn’t overcome overwhelmingly negative reviews and the drama from “This Is Us” creator Dan Fogelman was 11th with a putrid $2.1 million. I was a bit higher at $3.8 million.
I didn’t make a prediction on the blog for Assassination Nation (though I said $1.2 million on Fantasy Movie League), but it was another bad opening in 15th place with $1 million.
Set in a Halloween theme park, the horror flick HellFest will attempt to bring in genre fans next weekend. It’s directed by Gregory Plotkin, who’s known more for his work as an editor (GetOut, HappyDeathDay). He did make ParanormalActivity: TheGhostDimension. The cast includes Amy Forsyth, Bex Taylor-Klaus, Reign Edwards, and Tony Todd (otherwise known as Candyman from that franchise).
HellFest debuts in the middle of considerably more high-profile fright fests TheNun and Halloween. Opening on approximately 2200 screens, awareness seems rather low. That said, horror fans can sometimes cause larger than expected grosses.
I’m not seeing it here. I’ll project a mid to maybe high single digits premiere.
The Warner Animation Group sets the Legos aside momentarily when Smallfoot debuts next weekend. The 3D computer animated comedic musical (a twist on the Bigfoot story) comes from director Karey Kirkpatrick. He made the well-received Over the Hedge over a decade ago and the not so well-received live-action Eddie Murphy pic Imagine That in 2009. Channing Tatum, James Corden, LeBron James, Zendaya, Common, Danny DeVito, and Gina Rodriguez are among the voices heard here.
As mentioned, the current animation department at Warner Bros has mostly been giving us Lego titles as of late. One exception was 2016’s Storks. It also opened in September and made $21.3 million for its start. That is likely a far better comparison that anything involving those famous blocks.
A low 20s to mid gross should put this in second place next weekend behind the Kevin Hart/Tiffany Haddish comedy Night School.
**Blogger’s Update (09/27/18): My estimate has risen to $27.6 million to $31.6 million
One of the most dependable comedic actors at the box office teams with one of the hottest newer names when Night School opens next weekend. Kevin Hart and Tiffany Haddish headline the pic about a group trying to pass their GED exam. Malcolm D. Lee (who just directed Haddish in her breakout Girls Trip) is behind the camera. The supporting cast includes Rob Riggle, Mary Lynn Rajskub, Taran Killam, Romany Malco, and Keith David.
Hart has been a model of consistency in recent years when it comes to high earners. In addition to just coming off the massive blockbuster Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle, he’s had a handful of $30 million plus openers including Think Like a Man, both Ride Along features, Get Hard, and Central Intelligence. The Think Like a Man sequel almost reached $30 million while About Last Night made $25.6 million for its start. The low-end of the spectrum is The Wedding Ringer with $20.6 million. As for Lee and Haddish’s Trip, it took in $31.2 million.
The collaboration of these talents should yield pleasing results and the likely #1 spot over its made competitor – the animated Smallfoot. I’m a little skeptical this reaches $30 million, though it certainly could. A gross in the mid to high 20s seems more probable.
Night School opening weekend prediction: $31.6 million
The family fantasy film The House with a Clock in Its Walls looks to get its hands on the #1 spot at the box office this weekend as it opens alongside the Michael Moore political doc Fahrenheit 11/9 and ensemble drama Life Itself. If you missed my detailed prediction posts on that trio, you can find them here:
My low to mid 20s forecast for Clock should be more than enough for it to top the charts. The rest of the top 5 could be a bit more interesting. The Predator had a so-so debut and I look for it to experience a pretty hefty drop. Same goes for The Nun in its third weekend. A Simple Favor, on the other hand, could experience a solid hold in its sophomore frame.
As for the newcomers, my measly $3.8 million projection for Life Itself leaves it outside the top 5 while Fahrenheit ($5 million estimate) could battle for Crazy Rich Asians for that five-spot. And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. The House with a Clock In Its Walls
Predicted Gross: $23.2 million
2. A Simple Favor
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
3. The Predator
Predicted Gross: $10 million
4. The Nun
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Crazy Rich Asians
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
Box Office Results (September 14-16)
The Predator opening in first place was never really in doubt, but its $24.6 million debut didn’t impress much. It came in a bit under my $27.4 million estimate. Mostly negative reviews didn’t help and I look for this to experience a decline of over 50% this coming weekend.
After posting a franchise best haul for the Conjuring Cinematic Universe, The Nun saw the largest second weekend drop (66%) to $18.2 million (I was a little higher at $19.8 million). The two-week tally stands at $85 million.
Returns were decent for A Simple Favor as it opened in third with $16 million (a bit under my $17.9 million prediction). I see it experiencing the best hold for next weekend and having a real chance at rising to second place (considering the potential dips for The Predator and The Nun).
White Boy Rick premiered in fourth place with an unremarkable $8.8 million, on pace with my $8.7 million estimate. The crime drama also suffered from mixed reviews and it couldn’t manage to get older moviegoers interested.
Crazy Rich Asians rounded out the top five with $8.6 million (I said $8.2 million) to bring its total to $149 million.
Finally, faith-based sequel Unbroken: Path to Redemption gained no traction with audiences earning just $2.2 million for 10th place (I said $2.5 million).
The ensemble drama LifeItself opens next weekend and it likely faces an uphill battle for eyeballs. Dan Fogelman, best known as creator of NBC’s hit series “This Is Us”, directs. The cast includes Oscar Isaac, Olivia Wilde, Mandy Patinkin, Olivia Cooke, Annette Bening, Antonio Banderas, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Life premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last week to poor reviews and word of mouth. It stands at just 20% on Rotten Tomatoes and the marketing campaign has been lackluster.
Add all that up and this is looking like a major flop that could struggle to hit $5 million.
LifeItself opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
For my TheHousewithaClockinItsWalls prediction, click here:
Fourteen years after making the highest grossing documentary in box office history, Michael Moore is back next weekend with the politically charged Fahrenheit11/9. The film is the director’s commentary on the current administration and it comes after a banner summer for documentaries which saw hits such as RBG and Won’tYouBeMyNeighbor?
The title of Moore’s latest is a flip on the aforementioned Fahrenheit9/11. That picture, which focused on the War on Terror in 2004, shocked prognosticators with a $23.9 million opening and eventual $119 million domestic haul. That easily puts it on the top spot in its genre. Apart from that, Moore has made two $20 million plus earners with 2002’s BowlingforColumbine ($21 million) and 2007’s Sicko ($24 million). In the last few years, he hasn’t had as much success on the big screen. 2016’s WheretoInvadeNext grossed just under $4 million total.
11/9 is slated to debut on approximately 1500 screens. I’m not so sure audiences will rush out this time around for a doc in which the subject matter plays out 24/7 on cable news. There could also be a significant difference in how the pic plays on the coasts compared to middle America.
I will predict that this makes about a fourth of what the first Fahrenheit accomplished nearly a decade and a half ago.
Fahrenheit11/9 opening weekend prediction: $5 million
For my TheHousewithaClockinItsWalls prediction, click here:
Director Eli Roth is known for his very R rated violent tales, including Hostel and the Death Wish remake earlier this year. He changes it up next weekend with the release of The House with a Clock in Its Walls, a fantasy pic geared towards family crowds. Jack Black (fresh off the massive hit Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle) stars alongside Cate Blanchett, Sunny Suljic, Kyle MacLachlan, Owen Vaccaro, and Renee Elise Goldsberry. Its based on a 1973 novel by John Bellairs.
Looking at comps in the same genre based on books, 2016 saw Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children debut to $28.8 million in September. Going back further, 2007’s The Golden Compass made $25.7 million for its start. The former had the benefit of Tim Burton’s involvement. The latter came out in the midst of the holiday season.
While competition for a younger audience is light, I’m not convinced this will quite match those grosses. Unrelated fun fact: the IMAX screenings of Walls will include a 3D version of the iconic Michael Jackson video “Thriller”.
I’ll predict a low to mid 20s gross is what we’ll see here. If so, that should be enough for this to get its hands on the #1 spot.
The House with a Clock in Its Walls opening weekend prediction: $23.2 million
A quartet of new titles make their way to multiplexes this weekend: franchise reboot ThePredator, Anna Kendrick/Blake Lively thriller ASimpleFavor, crime drama WhiteBoyRick with Matthew McConaughey, and “spiritual sequel” Unbroken: PathtoRedemption. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
The Predator should have little trouble hitting the top spot, but I do have it on the lower end of the expectation range in the mid to high 20s.
The Nun got off a terrific start (more on that below) and I do expect a rather large decline due to both front loaded business and fairly poor word of mouth (a C Cinemascore grade). A drop in the low to mid 60s is feasible here and horror pics often have significant declines anyway.
A Simple Favor is intriguing. I believe it should place third and I have it managing to reach its intended female audience with a healthy showing at the top end of estimates.
White Boy Rick has generated zero awards buzz after its Telluride premiere and I’m having trouble seeing it hit double digits. That would put it in fourth.
Even though Peppermint just outdid Crazy Rich Asians for the #2 spot this past weekend, I expect the latter to have a smaller decline and get the five-spot.
As for Unbroken: Path to Redemption, my lowly $2.5 million forecast puts it well outside the top 5.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:
1. The Predator
Predicted Gross: $27.4 million
2. The Nun
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million
3. A Simple Favor
Predicted Gross: $17.9 million
4. White Boy Rick
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. Crazy Rich Asians
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
Box Office Results (September 7-9)
Warner Bros was in full sister act level celebration mode this weekend as The Nun conquered the charts. The fifth entry in the Conjuring Cinematic Universe experienced the best debut of the franchise with $53.8 million compared to my $45.4 million projection. That’s good for the second highest September opening of all time behind last year’s It.
In a bit of a surprise, Jennifer Garner’s revenge tale Peppermint was second with a decent $13.4 million, topping my $11.8 million prediction. Overcoming poor reviews, the film reached the upper end of its projections. I see it dipping around 50% next weekend and falling out of the top five.
The three-week reign of Crazy Rich Asians came to an end as it placed third with $13.1 million (I said $14.2 million) for $135 million total.
The Meg was fourth with $6 million compared to my $5.4 million take and the shark tale has amassed $131 million.
Searching rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (in line with my $4.2 million prediction) for $14 million overall.
Finally, faith-based drama God Bless the Broken Road premiered in 11th place with a weak $1.3 million. I was a bit more generous at $2.1 million.
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