Author: toddmthatcher

Oz The Great and Powerful Box Office Prediction

I normally wait until Wednesday to make my box office predictions for the upcoming weekend. While I have no intention of changing that practice, I will from time to time make an early prediction under special circumstances.

This coming weekend provides such a circumstance. In short, when an especially eagerly awaited release is set to debut, my projection will come a little earlier. I’m doing this for one main reason: I don’t want to be influenced by the inevitable flurry of articles likely to appear during the week pontificating on how Oz the Great and Powerful
will perform this weekend. I choose to pontificate first (especially due to the extreme lack of pontificating going on generally around the world at the moment).

I would expect to see similar early posts over the coming months on titles such as Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, and The Lone Ranger, among others.

However, we begin with what is unquestionably the biggest release of 2013 so far: Sam Raimi’s Oz the Great and Powerful. The prequel to one of the most beloved movies of all time stars James Franco, Michelle Williams, Rachel Weisz, and Mila Kunis.

Disney has gone all out marketing the film and raising its profile over the last several months, complete with a Super Bowl spot and constantly running ads on TV. The total budget, including the hefty marketing campaign, reportedly tops out at $325 million dollars. With that kind of money behind it, anything less than a smash hit will be considered a major letdown.

With its second weekend of March release date, it’s no secret Disney is attempting to replicate the success of another one of their titles released the same weekend three years ago: Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland, starring Johnny Depp. Watching the Oz trailers, it’s certainly marketed with the same vibe as the aforementioned mega-blockbuster. Wonderland currently stands as having the 14th biggest opening ever with $116.1 million. Disney would be over the moon to see those kinds of numbers for Oz.

I’m not so sure. First off, if Oz grosses over $100 million this weekend, mission accomplished for Disney. While the two titles are alike in many ways, Wonderland had the added benefit of having one of the biggest movie stars on the planet with their name above the title. There was probably a fair amount of moviegoers who went to see it simply because Depp was in it. Oz does not have that luxury. It’s filled with well-known actors, but none of them are box office draws. It’s worth noting that Robert Downey Jr. considered headlining the film at one point, but declined. His participation would have likely increased my estimate for Oz considerably, to the tune of an additional $15-$20 million dollars.

Sam Raimi’s film does have the name recognition thing going for it, though. It’s hard to find anyone who hasn’t seen (and loved) 1939’s The Wizard of Oz, a movie that picks up fans with every passing generation. It is certainly the main selling point here.

So far, reviews are mixed. That’s good enough. In many ways, Oz is critic-proof and its performance could only be hurt if it was savaged by critics. That does not appear to be the case whatsoever.

A more fair comparison for what Oz accomplishes this weekend may just be a film from the very recent past, Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. That, too, had a built-in audience eager to see it. It also received mixed reviews. And frankly, its box office performance in its inaugural weekend seems more likely to resemble what Oz will do. The Hobbit earned an $84.6 million opening in December.

Director Sam Raimi is certainly no stranger to blockbuster releases. He directed the Tobey Maguire Spiderman trilogy. The first film in that series debuted in 2002 to the best opening of all time (it now stands at #15, right behind Alice in Wonderland).

The flexibility as to what Oz grosses is pretty wide. Anything below $75 million will be seen as low, no matter how Disney spins it. Anything above $100 million would be a bit surprising and certainly amazing news for the Mouse Factory. My estimate puts it slightly above Hobbit territory:

Final Prediction

Oz the Great and Powerful: $87.4 million opening weekend

That prediction would give Oz the 33rd largest opening ever, in between Spiderman 2 and Fast Five. That number would likely be seen as a very solid opening, but how it holds up in subsequent weekends remains to be seen. If I had to further estimate, I’d say its chances of making more than my prediction is greater than its chances of making less, even though something in the low to middle 80s is quite possible. I don’t see it going below $75 million, but we’ll see.

On Wednesday, I will be back with my full predictions for the weekend’s Top Five. Special openings call for special blog posts and I wanted to get the Oz projection out now. Stay tuned!

The Arnold Classics: Schwarzenegger’s Best Movies

To many of us in beautiful Columbus, Ohio – “The Arnold Classic” means a lot of increased traffic, packed bars and restaurants, and a lot of folks walking around Cap City that you wouldn’t normally see.

However, for the purposes of this blog originating out of Columbus, “The Arnold Classics” is a group of those terrific Schwarzenegger action flicks. Being that Arnold’s CBus weekend is coming to a close, it felt appropriate to name my personal Top Five “Arnold Classics”.

This is certainly a debatable list. You’ll notice none of Arnold’s comedies made the cut. There’s probably a contingent of folks out there that would advocate for Twins or Kindergarten Cop. They are pretty solid comedies and certainly better than his later comedies like Junior and Jingle All the Way, but not Top 5 material in my book.

There’s 80s titles such as Conan the Barbarian and Commando. Good solid action flicks that again didn’t quite make the cut. And there’s also guilty pleasure favorites for me – such as 1987’s The Running Man, which was kind of The Hunger Games before that franchise existed. That film would likely be ranked #6 for me.

A Top Five “Arnold Classics” must be selected, though, so here we go:

5. True Lies (1994)

Ahnuld’s third collaboration with James Cameron is a whole lot of fun. This big-budget action spectacle was a big bounce back for the star, who’d suffered a box office disaster the year before with the mediocre Last Action Hero. Featuring Arnold doing what he does best and with a great supporting performance from Jamie Lee Curtis, True Lies is a treat.

4. Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991)

And here is where the debate begins. Many film buffs have engaged in endless arguments as to whether the original or its sequel is the best. I’m an original guy, as you’ll see. This should not, however, take away from one of the greatest sequels of all time, with some truly revolutionary special effects and a memorable nemesis in Robert Patrick’s T1000. Even Eddie Furlong’s atrocious acting can be forgiven due to the quality of material in the James Cameron film.

3. Total Recall (1990)

Paul Verhoeven’s sci-fi action extravaganza is one of the genre’s classics. Based on a Philip K. Dick work, Arnold’s mission to mars is a blast. Featuring a great turn from Sharon Stone as his deceiving wife (“Consider that a divorce!”) and some terrific effects, there is only one Total Recall (Colin Farrell remake be damned).

2. The Terminator (1984)

James Cameron’s original Terminator is what broke Ahnuld out as a huge movie star. Unlike its sequel, Schwarzenegger is the villain here and he’s marvelous. We all know the famous lines by now. The Terminator is one of the most influential movies of the past three decades.

1. Predator (1987)

My personal favorite. John McTiernan’s Predator is a perfect action film with the Governator delivering one classic quip after another (“Get to the choppahhhhh!”). As an 80s action film buff, it doesn’t get any better than this.

And there you have it! My Top 5 Arnold Classics for the Arnold Classic weekend. I’ll be back with much more on the blog soon (couldn’t resist the lame and obvious here).

Movies You Might Not Know: Leno and Letterman Edition

Over the past two decades, I have followed the saga known as the Late Night Wars intensely. The comedic performers who grace our TV screens late at night has been filled with serious drama that has risen to almost Shakespearean levels at times.

This was never more true than in the early 90s when late night king Johnny Carson made the decision to give up his throne after 30 years. The question on the minds of TV watchers was an obvious one: would Jay Leno or David Letterman be given the coveted “Tonight Show” gig? The dynamic between the two performers had a history of its own with Jay getting his biggest break by Dave featuring him regularly on his 12:30 show that followed Johnny.

We all know that it was Mr. Leno who received the honor. What you may not know is the fascinating back story behind it all. It’s a tale first told in a book of the same title by NY Times writer Bill Carter. The novel would be turned into an HBO movie that is definitely worth seeking out.

The Late Shift focuses on the rough office politics that led to Leno’s ascendancy to the “Tonight” throne and Letterman’s eventual move to CBS to directly compete with his rival. We see Leno driven at all costs to obtain the gig, even hiding in a closet at one point to eavesdrop on a network executives conference call. He is aided by his ruthless producer Helen Kushnick, played wonderfully by Kathy Bates.

The casting is a mixed bag. Daniel Roebuck plays Leno as more of a direct impersonation, while John Michael Higgins acquits himself well as Dave. Higgins doesn’t attempt to do a Letterman impersonation, but rather embody the often prickly and difficult personality that those who’ve researched Mr. Letterman are aware of. It works. As the ultra powerful Hollywood agent Mike Ovitz, Treat Williams gives a solid performance. One unfortunate bit of casting is well-known celebrity impressionist Rich Little as Mr. Carson. It seems gimmicky. Too bad they didn’t get Kevin Spacey to portray the Late Night King. His Carson is terrific. Here’s an example of the actor doing his impression on Mr. Letterman’s program:

The Late Shift is a solid movie. It’s especially interesting to look at from a historical perspective. As we watch the infighting between the main players and their teams, we can’t help but think of what would occur nearly two decades later when Mr. Leno and Mr. Conan O’Brien experienced a similar battle for the “Tonight” throne.

And just yesterday, reports broke that NBC is working on a plan to bring Jimmy Fallon in to host next year. Watching The Late Shift and remembering the recent actions with Conan, there’s a good chance Jay Leno won’t slip quietly from the late night landscape.

In closing, The Late Shift is a Movie You Might Not Know about some television legends you know quite well. It’s worth a look.

Box Office Results: Mar 1-3

Jack the Giant Slayer had a clear #1 opening at the box office this weekend and managed to exceed my predicted gross. However, the news is still not good for Warner Bros.

As mentioned in my predictions post on Wednesday, anything below a $30 million opening weekend would be considered a massive disappointment for Bryan Singer’s $190 million budgeted Jack and the Beanstalk tale. The picture grossed $27.2 million, slightly higher than my $25.4M projection. Long term domestic prospects don’t look great, as Sam Rami’s high-profile Oz the Great and Powerful is expected to open huge next weekend (more on that this Wednesday).

Meanwhile, Identity Thief continues post higher grosses than I’m predicting. Thief slid only one spot to #2, earning $9.7 million in its fourth weekend, above my $8.2M estimate. The Melissa McCarthy comedy looks to end its domestic run with an impressive gross of around $130 million.

The raunchy comedy 21&Over failed to connect with its target audience of teens and 20-somethings, grossing a low $8.8 million, less than half of my $18M projection. On the same weekend last year, Project X (a similar film going for the same crowd) earned a very good $20M opening, but 21&Over didn’t come close to repeating that business, despite a rather robust marketing campaign.

Continuing the trend of films under performing, horror sequel The Last Exorcism Part II opened fifth with a small $7.7 million, below my $10.6M estimate. Like other horror titles, expect this one to fall quickly next weekend.

In the four spot, Snitch made $7.8 million in its second weekend, right around my $7.3M projection. Well out of the Top Ten, the submarine thriller Phantom wound up with a pathetic opening of $470,000 – representing one of the worst wide openings in box office history. I was clearly being way too generous when I guessed it’d made $2.3 million.

Be sure to check back this Wednesday for next weekend’s predictions, when Oz the Great and Powerful hits multiplexes. The Sam Raimi film is by far expected to post the largest opening of the year so far. The Colin Farrell action thriller Dead Man Down also opens. Stay tuned my friends!

The 007 Files: The Future of James Bond

As you likely know, I’ve spent a great deal of time on this blog discussing and evaluating all 23 official James Bond pictures. This was capped off by ranking all 23 007 entries from #1 to #23. Additionally, I’ve named my top (00) 7 Bond Villains, Bond Girls, and Bond Theme Songs.

With all the films blogged about, this leads to what could my last 007 Files post for awhile. It begins with a natural question: What is the future of the James Bond franchise?

For the immediate future, the answer appears clear. Daniel Craig has achieved worldwide acclaim for his portrayal of the super agent. Last year’s Skyfall reached new heights at the box office, as it grossed over a billion dollars around the globe.

As much as moviegoers love Craig, we must look at Father Time. I didn’t realize this until I began writing the blog post, but today marks the actor’s 45th birthday. For some context, Sean Connery was 41 when he made his last official entry, Diamonds Are Forever. He would return 12 years later in the unofficial Bond pic Never Say Never Again (a film I will get around to writing a post about eventually). Timothy Dalton was 45 when his second and last entry Licence to Kill came out. Pierce Brosnan was 49 when his finale, Die Another Day, was released in 2002. The exception to the 40s rule was Roger Moore, who finally gave up the role at age 57 in A View to a Kill. Moore was criticized for staying in the role too long.

If we assume that we’ll get a new Bond feature every 2-3 years (which seems likely), I would guess we are at precisely the mid-point of Mr. Craig’s tenure as 007. Three more Craig entries would have him playing the role into his early-mid fifties. I simply don’t think he’ll go beyond that.

Imagining there are three more Craig/Bond films, this begs another question: How good will they be? The immediate follow-up, possibly coming out in late 2014, has giant shoes to fill. It will suffer endless comparisons to Skyfall, just as Quantum of Solace was compared to Casino Royale. 

At the end of Skyfall, we could see the direction the franchise was heading towards with Naomie Harris as Moneypenny, Ralph Fiennes as the new M, and even a young Q. While Quantum was a direct sequel to Casino, Skyfall was a self-contained picture. I suspect that’s what the producers will do from now on. There had been talk of shooting the next two entries back-to-back. This idea has since been scrapped for now. It’s not hard to figure out why the producers wanted to do this. They wish to maximize their use of Mr. Craig for as many pictures as possible. Rumor has it that it was Skyfall director Sam Mendes who squashed the back-to-back notion in order for him to say yes to returning to the director’s chair. If this turns out true, Mendes will be the first director to helm back-to-back Bond adventures since John Glen, who directed every 007 pic in the 1980s.

Bottom line: the next seven to nine years seems secure in Bond world, with a beloved 007 playing the lead. It’s what comes after that which will be truly intriguing. Yes, there will be a new Bond at some point. And I feel sorry for whomever it is. George Lazenby was relentlessly criticized for his portrayal. While much of this was deserved, there’s no question part of it was due to audiences not wanting to let Sean Connery go. Even Craig’s initial casting was met with disappointment from Bond fans, as many were pleased with Mr. Brosnan and leery of a new 007. Those fears quickly dissipated with the release of Casino Royale.

Whatever actor is cast as the next Bond will unquestionably face enormous scrutiny from a public who will not want to let Craig go. It’s up to producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael Wilson to hit their casting out of the park, just as they did with Craig.

And while there are certainly many more questions to be discussed, one thing seems certain. The Bond franchise is going nowhere. Not in the short term. And not in the long term.

On a final note, I would encourage all Bond lovers to watch the documentary Everything Or Nothing, released late last year. The feature length documentary was made to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the franchise. It has interviews with all six Bonds, the producers, writers, directors, and many more. Everything Or Nothing is required viewing for those of us who’ve grown to love the series. I highly recommend it and you can catch it on Netflix right now.

Box Office Predictions: March 1-3

A busy weekend at theaters as four new pictures try to shake up a rather sluggish box office in which only Melissa McCarthy’s Identity Thief has broken out with moviegoers.

Bryan Singer’s Jack the Giant Slayer, a “reimagining” of the Jack and the Beanstalk fairy tale, was pushed back from its original June 2012 release date. The reason given was more time needed to work on visual effects. Singer has directed the well-received first two X-Men features, as well as the not-so well-received Superman Returns from 2006. With a huge $190 million dollar budget, Warner Bros. is taking quite a gamble here. It’s one that may not pay off. The picture’s trailers don’t seem to convey this as a “must-see” event and plenty of moviegoers may just wait until next weekend to see what appears to be 2013’s first real tentpole release, Oz the Great and Powerful. Anything below a $30 million opening would have to be considered disappointing and I suspect Slayer is headed in that direction.

Touting itself as from the writers of The Hangover is the R rated teen comedy 21 and Over. Shot on a puny $13 million budget, 21 and Over seems to have run a fairly effective marketing campaign and audiences might be ready for a raunchy comedy. On this very same weekend last year, a similar title (Project X) managed to exceed expectations and deliver a $21 million opening. There is even a small possibility 21 and Over could open #1 if Slayer falls far below expectations. An opening in the high teens for 21 seems likely, but it could tick up even higher.

Our next offering is The Last Exorcism Part II, the sequel to the successful 2010 original. This is another title looking to exceed expectations. I’m not so sure with this one, just like Slayer. While the original managed a truly impressive $20 million opening, it dropped fast. Audiences didn’t seem to particularly care for it, so the thought that they would be clamoring for a sequel seems unlikely. The second Exorcism may be lucky to open at half of  its predecessor’s gross. However, like most horror titles, it could surprise and deliver a much bigger opening than anticipated.

Last, and most certainly least, is Phantom. This submarine thriller, set in the 1960s, stars Ed Harris and David Duchovny. Inexplicably, it’s opening on a hefty 2,000 screens. This kind of movie has “made for TV” or “direct to DVD” written all over it. I have no idea how this got a major theatrical release. Expect it to post embarrassing numbers.

The three newbies talked about first should open 1-3. This leaves last weekend’s two top grossers, Identity Thief and Snitch, likely to round out the top five.

And with that, here are my box office predictions for the weekend:

1. Jack the Giant Slayer

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

2. 21 and Over

Predicted Gross: $18 million

3. The Last Exorcism Part II

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

4. Identity Thief

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 42%)

5. Snitch

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 45%)

Finally, I look for Phantom to open with a tiny $2.3 million.

Check back through the weekend as final numbers come in!

Movies You Might Not Know: Stephen King Edition

A more appropriate heading for this post could be Movies You Might Think Todd Is Crazy For Recommending.

The literary works of the great Stephen King has given us some classic films from 1976’s Carrie to 1980’s The Shining to 1990’s Misery to 1994’s The Shawshank Redemption. There’s also been major disappointments. Two pictures from 1993 immediately come to mind: The Dark Half and Needful Things. There’s a whole lot more from Arnold Schwarzenegger’s guilty pleasure The Running Man to that creepy clown played by Tim Curry in “Stephen King’s IT”, an effective and frightening TV movie.

Any self-described movie buff has those films that they seem to like, even though pretty much no one else seems to agree. One of those titles for me is undoubtedly 2003’s Dreamcatcher, based on King’s 2001 novel.

First off: I will readily admit Dreamcatcher is a mess of a film. Tonally it’s all over the map, switching from psychological drama to gross-out horror flick to alien invasion military thriller, sometimes from scene to scene.

There is a lot of talent involved here. The director is Lawrence Kasdan, who brought us The Big Chill and Silverado. He also co-wrote the screenplays to The Empire Strikes Back, Raiders of the Lost Ark, and Return of the Jedi. His co-writer here is William Goldman, writer of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, Marathon Man, All the President’s Men, and The Princess Bride. And, once again, it’s based on a work by one of the world’s most celebrated novelists.

The cast includes Morgan Freeman, Tom Sizemore, Damian Lewis (Brody from “Homeland”!), Jason Lee, Thomas Jane, Timothy Olyphant, and Donnie Wahlberg.

With all the pedigree involved, audiences had a reasonable expectation that Dreamcatcher could join the pantheon of classic King adaptations. What audiences got is a movie that is just… well, way out there. Its plot involves a group of guys reuniting for their annual Maine hunting trip at a cabin when they encounter alien forces… including in one extremely disgusting and shocking bathroom scene. Turns out the group all became telepathic as young boys after they befriended a mentally challenged boy who also possessed similar abilities. It’s as strange as it sounds. When the alien forces who have infiltrated the cabin are revealed, the military moves in with Morgan Freeman playing a ruthless commander.

Just when you think Dreamcatcher can’t get more bizarre, it does. Consistently. And there is no doubt that moviegoers were probably completely blindsided by it. I know I was. Strangely enough, though, I totally dug it. I sincerely admired its go-for-broke attitude, even though it doesn’t always work. I found it quite entertaining.

Film goers did not respond positively. Dreamcatcher grossed a weak $33 million domestically and suffered a nearly 60% drop in its second weekend, indicating that audiences were not telling their friends to go see it.

Now, ten years later, I am telling my friends to go see it. You may resent me for it if you take me up on the offer. Or you might have the same positive reaction I did. That’s what movies are all about and that’s why I’m proud to recommend Dreamcatcher for your consideration.

 

Movies You Might Not Know: Matt Damon Edition

He might be Jason Bourne or Will Hunting to most moviegoers, but in my humble opinion, Matt Damon gave the performance of his career in an under appreciated 2009 feature that I highly recommend if it’s a Movie You Might Not Know.

Steven Soderbergh’s The Informant! give us one of those stories that’s so unbelievable, it must be true. Kind of like Argo, for an ultra timely reference. Damon plays Mark Whitacre, a corporate executive who becomes a famous whistle blower shedding light on his company’s price fixing activities. All the while he’s embezzling millions from that same company.

The depth of Whitacre’s illegal activities becomes more and more wild as the film moves along. Did he take $500,000? $1 million? $2 million? It keeps getting crazier and crazier as the FBI, who started out working with Mark, are simply dumbfounded by his actions.

Based on a true story, Soderbergh makes the choice to make The Informant! a comedy. It’s a decision that pays off. The script is razor sharp and filled with terrific supporting characters. They include Scott Bakula (Sam from “Quantum Leap”!) and Joel McHale (“The Soup”, “Community”, Ted) as the FBI partners tasked with unenviable job of working with Whitacre. Melanie Lynskey shines as Marc’s poor wife, who’s just as duped by him as everyone else. There’s also a great musical score by the late Marvin Hamlisch, who was honored at last night’s Oscars.

Ultimately, though, it is Damon’s often hilarious and sometimes touching portrayal of Whitacre that makes The Informant! a special movie. This is a guy who has serious issues, namely the fact that he simply can’t stop lying. Mr. Damon should have been nominated for Best Actor for his work here. I truly believe this a career-best performance.

The Informant! is one of those films that I’ve grown to like more and more with each viewing. It did not connect with audiences in 2009, grossing a meager $33 million. The film deserves a larger audience and if you haven’t seen it, do yourself a favor.

 

The 2012 Oscars: My Final Thoughts

After a whole lotta speculation on this here blog, the 2012 Oscars have come and gone. Soon enough, I’ll be speculating on what/who gets nominated for 2013 movies. That’s a little ways off, however, so let’s talk about the ceremony last night.

As far as the winners, no huge surprises. I went 15/20 on my picks (not bad). In the six major categories, it was 5 for 6. I picked Tommy Lee Jones to win for Lincoln, but the Academy honored Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained. As I mentioned before on the blog, this category was more wide open than many others and I saw Jones, Waltz, and De Niro as real possibilities to win. Needless to say, Mr. Waltz’s association with Mr. Tarantino has turned out quite well.

The precursor award ceremonies like the SAG and Golden Globe awards made it much easier to predict Argo for the win and that’s what happened. When I made that decision, it made it easier to predict Ang Lee would get honored for his achievements directing Life of Pi, with Argo director Ben Affleck not being nominated. The folks out there expressing shock that Lincoln and Spielberg didn’t win probably should have paid more attention to the precursors… in which the film and Mr. Spielberg pretty much got nothing. While the film and director weren’t victorious, Daniel Day-Lewis being honored was a foregone conclusion and he becomes the first to win Best Actor three times. Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook had gained the momentum in the last few weeks, giving her the edge over Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty. And Anne Hathaway, like Day-Lewis, was an obvious choice as she’d won every major precursor.

I was slightly surprised Brave won Best Animated Feature over Wreck-It Ralph, but lesson learned. Don’t bet against Pixar in that category. I also predicted Anna Karenina would win Production Design. Lincoln won. I picked up Skyfall for Sound Mixing and Les Miserables won. And I wrongly picked against Les Mis for Makeup/Hairstyling, incorrectly guessing The Hobbit. An interesting note in another race: I did correctly pick Skyfall for Sound Editing, but it actually tied with Zero Dark Thirty. That is the only the sixth time in 85 years of Oscars where a tie has occurred.

Interestingly, the six major categories were awarded to six different movies that were all nominees in the Best Picture race. This shows you more than anything else what a strong year 2012 was in the theaters.

As for the ceremony itself? Eh, it was decent. It went way longer than it should have, like it always does. Seth MacFarlane proved to be an adequate host. He was probably a bit tamer than some would have expected, but “edgy” and “Oscar host” usually doesn’t mix. I love David Letterman and Chris Rock, but they seemed a bit out of place when they handled hosting duties. There was nothing particularly memorable about MacFarlane in his hosting gig (let’s face it: it’s a thankless job). But he was pretty solid. If I was producing the Oscars, I’d have Jimmy Fallon and Justin Timberlake co-host. I think they’d be great.

The show’s focus on musicals produced a mixed bag. For me personally, there were probably a couple too many song and dance numbers. And I found it a strange choice to honor “the history” of musicals with Chicago, Dreamgirls, and Les Miserables, three films released in the past decade. I mean, Jennifer Hudson is a wonderful singer, but I seem to recall that same Oscar performance only six years ago. On the flip side, two terrific musical moments came from the James Bond franchise, with Shirley Bassey and Adele killing it with “Goldfinger” and “Skyfall”, respectively.

Some of the acceptance speeches were quite good. I’m particularly thinking of Mr. Day-Lewis and a clearly emotional Ben Affleck accepting Best Picture. And J-Law is just great!

All in all, the Oscars closed a chapter on a truly impressive year in film in satisfactory fashion.

We’re two months into 2013 and I think I can safely say none of next year’s Best Picture nominees have come out yet. Not even Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters.

Box Office Results: February 22-24

It was, as expected, a quiet week at the box office as Identity Thief returned to the #1 spot as two newcomers posted mediocre results.

Thief was back on top with a gross of $14 million, slightly below my $14.9M projection. The Rock’s action drama Snitch opened second with a soft $13.2 million, inches below my $13.3M estimate. At third, the animated Escape from Planet Earth with $10.7 million (I said $11.1M). A Good Day to Die Hard fell from 1st to 4th, dropping farther than I thought it would. The fifth installment in the franchise grossed $10.2 million in its second weekend, well below my $14.1M projection. Finally, the horror thriller Dark Skies was a big disappointment in sixth with $8.2 million, less than my $10.6M estimate.

Be sure to check back Wednesday for next weekend’s prediction, when Jack the Giant Slayer, The Last Exorcism Part II, 21 and Over, and Phantom all debut.