Author: toddmthatcher

The Gift Movie Review

Many psychological thrillers have memorable moments, but are hampered by cliched third acts that are utterly predictable. Joel Edgerton’s The Gift is more the inverse. For a long portion of its deliberate running time, it feels like every other genre title that was much more popular over two decades ago (think The Hand That Rocks the Cradle, Single White Female, Unlawful Entry). They’ve been called the “Blank from Hell” movies. Fatal Attraction = Mistress from Hell. Roommate, Cop, Nanny from Hell.

The Gift is the Old Friend from Hell. Yet not really an old friend. Simon (Jason Bateman) and Robyn (Rebecca Hall) are a yuppie couple recently relocated to Los Angeles from Chicago. Upon shopping at a home furnishing store, they’re encountered by Gordo (Edgerton, directing himself in his feature debut). He describes himself as a high school acquaintance of Simon’s though Gordo is hardly recalled by him. Gordon’s soon dropping off housewarming presents with notes punctuated by smiley and frowny faces. Twenty years ago when this kind of film thrived, that particular character trait may have seemed odd. Now everyone does it. Don’t worry, though, because Gordo has plenty of other legitimate quirks. He’s socially awkward and seems fixated on Robyn. It gets to the point where Simon must confront him.

And that’s when the hallmarks of this genre are on full display. Missing dog. A pregnancy to complicate matters. Our heroine in the shower, possibly vulnerable. There are hints of a deeper history between Simon and Gordo the Weirdo as he calls him. Side note: Weirdo was Edgerton’s original title (he wrote it too) and it’s much better than The Gift.

When the connection between them is revealed, The Gift stops being a typical entry in the Blank from Hell canon and becomes something far more interesting. It’s just too bad it takes a while to get there. When it does move into genuinely unexpected territory, I found enough to savor to make this just worthy of a recommendation. The trio of lead performers elevate it as well. Edgerton is a perfectly acceptable Weirdo and Bateman continues to show he’s a pro in non-comedic roles, too. While much of The Gift keeps on giving familiar material, the final parts that intensify the character’s relationships and motivations are a welcome surprise.

*** (out of four)

The Peanuts Movie Box Office Prediction

Some 65 years after Charles M. Schulz’s iconic characters first appeared in newspaper comic strips – Charlie Brown, Snoopy, and company hits screens next weekend in The Peanuts Movie. It’s been 35 years since they graced the silver screen in 1980’s Bon Voyage, Charlie Brown (And Don’t Come Back!!), but the Peanuts gang have been omnipresent on our TV screens around the holidays for decades.

The reported $100 million budgeted 3D animated affair looks to score with family audiences and it should. Obviously, there’s a built-in familiarity among all ages with this franchise and 20th Century Fox has likely found itself a series with sequels to come. It’s possible that some of the parents who’d be taking their kids to see it may choose to have their own date night with Spectre, but it shouldn’t be much of a factor.

As I see it, The Peanuts Movie should manage to surpass $40 million out of the gate, though anything beyond $50M seems a little high. As long as the buzz is solid, Peanuts should able to settle in a for a very solid run through the next couple of months.

The Peanuts Movie opening weekend prediction: $43.4 million

For my Spectre prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/29/spectre-box-office-prediction/

Spectre Box Office Prediction

Three years after the triumphant box office performance of the 23rd 007 entry Skyfall, Daniel Craig is back for the fourth time as James Bond in Spectre, out next Friday. The big question is whether or not it will manage to top the franchise high debut of its predecessor. It could come close or surpass it, as I see it.

Let’s take a little trip down memory lane with Craig’s 007 filmography. His first, 2006’s Casino Royale, started with $40.8 million on its way to a $167M eventual domestic gross. The second, 2008’s Quantum of Solace, earned $67.5 million out of the gate and just edged its predecessor’s haul with $168M. Then – 2012’s Skyfall was a game changer. It made $88.3 million for its astonishing opening weekend and ended with $304M. Worldwide, it took in a cool $1.1 billion, easily setting the high bar for the now 53 year old series.

The studio clearly has employed the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” rule as Skyfall director Sam Mendes has returned. Christoph Waltz joins the fray as the main villain with Ralph Fiennes and Naomie Harris returning as M and Moneypenny, respectively. Spectre has already set records in the United Kingdom, where it was already released this week. Reviews have been mostly strong and it stands at 79% on Rotten Tomatoes, though it’s worth noting that critics generally have stated it’s not quite at the level of what preceded it.

This 24th official Bond pic should debut with Skyfall like numbers. On the high end, it could possibly gather over $100M in its first weekend. It could also earn $75-$80M and that would certainly be on the lower end of expectations. My feeling is that it’ll be within about $5M of what the last one made on the same November weekend in 2012 and that Spectre will just manage to outdo it for the largest 007 premiere in U.S. history.

Spectre opening weekend prediction: $91.3 million

For my prediction on The Peanuts Movie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/29/the-peanuts-movie-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s October Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

This evening we arrive at the final installment of my second round of Oscar predictions for 2015 (October Edition). Of course, that means the biggest prize of all: Best Picture.

In my initial round nearly two months back, I predicted that eight movies would get nods. As you may know, unlike every other category, the number of Picture nominees can fluctuate anywhere between five and ten. I now have 9 pictures vying for the top prize.

Of the original eight that I predicted, six remain: Bridge of Spies, The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight, Joy, The Revenant, and Steve Jobs. It’s worth noting that half of them -have yet to be seen by anyone (The Hateful Eight, Joy, The Revenant) and I’m basing my inclusion of them mostly on the pedigree involved. And when you consider that pedigree is Quentin Tarantino, David O. Russell, and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – who can blame me, right?

So what two pictures fell off? That would be Carol and Suffragette, whose buzz has seemed to fade in recent weeks. Carol certainly remains a possibility, but I’m not even including Suffragette as having a chance at this point.

This also means we have three newbies joining the list and all have been screened and seem like strong contenders: John Crowley’s Brooklyn (which I barely left off last time), Lenny Abrahamson’s red hot indie drama Room, and Tom McCarthy’s journalistic expose Spotlight, which some have pegged as the current soft front runner.

Of course, things are bound to change by the time my third round of estimates is released in November, but at this juncture:

TODD’S BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS – OCTOBER EDITION

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

The Danish Girl

The Hateful Eight

Joy

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

The Big Short

Carol

Concussion

Inside Out

In the Heart of the Sea

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

Sicario

Son of Saul

Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens

Youth

And there you have it, my loyal readers! Expect the third round to be coming your way about Turkey Day time…

 

Todd’s October Oscar Predictions: Best Director

We are back at it for my second round of Oscar predictions – October edition. The acting categories have been completed and we’ve arrived at Best Director with Best Picture up next. And from my initial round of estimates nearly two months ago, much has changed. In fact, only two of my five original picks remain: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for The Revenant and Danny Boyle for Steve Jobs, who have both won this category before with Birdman and Slumdog Millionaire, respectively.

Out of the lineup are Todd Haynes (Carol), Tom Hooper (The Danish Girl), and David O. Russell (Joy). All remain possibilities. Joining the party are Tom McCarthy for Spotlight and Lenny Abrahamson for Room. Their pics have caught on as major festival favorites that are both set to hit screens nationwide in the next couple of weeks. For the fifth slot – there’s plenty of possibilities but I’m going with a bit of an upset name for now: George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road. He’s a long respected director whose return to the franchise that made him famous over three decades ago was seen as a triumph and I could see his fellow auteurs honoring him.

We shall see how it plays out when my third round arrives in November, but for now:

TODD’S OCTOBER OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST DIRECTOR

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Other Possibilities:

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul

David O. Russell, Joy

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

Best Picture is up next, folks!

Box Office Predictions: October 30-November 1

Three new films open this Halloween weekend and I have every one of them debuting to below $10 million. They are: Bradley Cooper drama Burnt, zombie comedy Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse, and Sandra Bullock political comedy/drama Our Brand Is Crisis. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/our-brand-is-crisis-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/burnt-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/scouts-guide-to-the-zombie-apocalypse-box-office-prediction/

After the downright embarrassing performances of some of last week’s newbies (much more on that below), I’m not even supremely confident that putting each of these new entries in the $7-9 million range is correct, but we shall see.

**blogger’s update: due to the previously unknown knowledge that Scouts Guide is only opening on 1500 screens, I am downgrading my $8 million estimate to just $4.2 million

As for the top spot, it could continue to be a battle between The Martian and Goosebumps and my estimates reflect a photo finish. Bridge of Spies, in its third weekend, should continue its small declines from week to week.

And with that, we’ll do a top five projections for what should be a sluggish frame before Spectre and The Peanuts Movie roll out the following weekend:

  1. Goosebumps

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)

2. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)

3. Burnt

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. Bridge of Spies

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 29%)

5. Our Brand Is Crisis

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (October 23-25)

Well, I thought it might be an unpredictable weekend and was it ever! Not too often that my #1 pick comes in seventh and my #4 pick finishes on top, but that’s exactly what happened.

Ridley Scott’s The Martian climbed back into the #1 position with $15.7 million, ahead of my $12.5M projection to bring its fine total to $166M in four weeks.

Last weekend’s champ Goosebumps fell to second with $15.5 million, under my $17.8M estimate for a two week tally of $43M. As mentioned above, I expect this and The Martian to duke it out for box office supremacy once again this weekend.

Bridge of Spies was third in weekend two with $11.3 million, on target with my $11.9M projection for a $32M total.

The first newcomer of five lackluster debuts belonged to Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter, taking in just $10.8 million compared to my $15.8M prediction. Poor reviews and a blah marketing campaign didn’t help.

Animated holdover Hotel Transylvania 2 was fifth with $8.8 million (I said $7.6M) for a current $148M haul.

In sixth was Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension with $8 million (as opposed to my $9.7M projection). The latest and reportedly final entry in the franchise went out with a whimper, partly due to its low number of screens due to controversy about it debuting on VOD in just two weeks. This caused several theater chains to boycott it. While this opening is certainly soft, it is worth noting that it had the highest per screen average of anything in the top ten.

The big surprise of the weekend was the performance of Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs, which came with sizzling Oscar buzz. I predicted it would win the weekend with $19.6 million, but it stumbled with a seventh place showing at $7.1 million – obviously way less than expected. Jobs will hope for small declines over subsequent frames as the studio hopes it can possibly play well into awards season.

Guillermo del Toro’s dud Crimson Peak was eighth in its sophomore frame with $5.6 million (I said $6.1M) for a lackluster $22M gross.

Positions nine and ten belonged to holdovers that I didn’t predict would be there – The Intern with $3.7 million and Sicario with $2.8 million. Their respective grosses stand at $64 and $39M.

That’s because two other new flicks had disastrous debuts. Bill Murray’s critically reviled Rock the Kasbah made just $1.4 million compared to my extremely generous $7.8M estimate and the live-action version of 80s cartoon Jem and the Holograms posted a pathetic $1.3 million (I said $4.1M). That’s good for respective 13th and 15th position debuts. Ouch.

And that’s all for now, my friends! Until next time…

Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse Box Office Prediction

**blogger’s note – due to previously unknown knowledge this is just opening on 1500 screens, I’m revising my original $8 million projection to just $4.2 million

Next weekend we have yet another zombified horror comedy as Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse hits screens. From the screenwriter of a number of the Paranormal Activity franchise flicks, Apocalypse stars Tye Sheridan, David Koechner and even Cloris Leachman.

It is tough to imagine this breaking through in any major way. Moviegoers have certainly seen their share of this genre in recent years and I am skeptical this will succeed in capitalizing on its Halloween weekend release. Like both other new entries rolling out next weekend (Burnt and Our Brand Is Crisis), I don’t believe this will manage double digits for its premiere.

Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million

For my Burnt prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/burnt-box-office-prediction/

For my Our Brand Is Crisis prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/our-brand-is-crisis-box-office-prediction/

Burnt Box Office Prediction

After his Oscar nominated smash hit American Sniper early this year, Bradley Cooper may experience his second box office disappointment with Burnt, out next weekend. The comedic drama features Cooper as a formerly drug addicted chef trying to rebuild his life. Costars include Sienna Miller, Uma Thurman, Daniel Bruhl, Alicia Vikander and Emma Thompson.

Reviews have not been strong as Burnt currently sits at just 31% on Rotten Tomatoes. It appears to be following a similar path to this summer’s Aloha with Cooper, which debuted to only $9.6 million. I wouldn’t be surprised if this suffers a similarly unimpressive fate and fails to reach double digits out of the gate.

Burnt opening weekend prediction: $8.9 million

For my Our Brand Is Crisis prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/our-brand-is-crisis-box-office-prediction/

For my Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/scouts-guide-to-the-zombie-apocalypse-box-office-prediction/

Our Brand Is Crisis Box Office Prediction

In her first live action role since her Oscar nominated turn in box office bonanza Gravity, Sandra Bullock headlines the comedic drama and political pic Our Brand Is Crisis, out next weekend. Supporting players include Billy Bob Thornton, Anthony Mackie, Joaquim de Almeida, and Ann Dowd. From the producers of Argo (Grant Heslov and Bullock’s Gravity costar George Clooney) and director David Gordon Green, Crisis was once looked at as a potential awards contender until it screened at the film festival circuit. Its mixed reviews put it at just 40% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Even Bullock’s legitimate star power may not save this from being a mediocre performer. Political movies are a tough sell generally, especially without critics praising it. Only positive buzz could turn this into a hit and it’s just not there. I believe Crisis may struggle to reach double digits and disappear rather quickly.

Our Brand Is Crisis opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my Burnt prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/burnt-box-office-prediction/

For my Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/scouts-guide-to-the-zombie-apocalypse-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s October Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

We’ve arrived at my second round of Oscar predictions in the category of Best Actor and like Best Actress yesterday, there’s only been one change since my initial predictions in early September.

It’s Don Cheadle’s work in Miles Ahead that has been omitted and this is for two reasons: it got mixed reviews on the film fest circuit and it’s likely been pushed back to 2016. Taking his place: Johnny Depp’s work as Whitey Bulger in Black Mass, which has earned the star some of the best reviews of his career.

The remaining four: Michael Caine in Youth, Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant, Michael Fassbender as Steve Jobs, and last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl.

I believe Caine could be the most vulnerable of the group and there’s a number of actors that could swoop in and replace him. That list now appears to be topped by Will Smith in Concussion or Matt Damon in The Martian, which has skyrocketed to critical acclaim and terrific box office numbers since my first predictions.

As for now, not a lot has changed here but we’ll see if that remains when my third round is released in November.

TODD’S BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS (OCTOBER EDITION)

Michael Caine, Youth

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Bradley Cooper, Burnt

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Matt Damon, The Martian

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes

Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul

Will Smith, Concussion

Best Director and Best Picture predictions for the second time around will be up on the blog soon!