After four years of box office dormancy, Alvin and Simon and Theodore bring their CGI rodent selves back to the silver screen for the fourth time in Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip. Jason Lee returns as Dave along with a voice over cast including Justin Long, Jesse McCartney, Christina Applegate, Anna Faris and Kaley Cuoco.
The chipmunk franchise has been a gold mine for 20th Century Fox. The 2007 original was a surprise smash with a $44 million premiere and a $217 million domestic take. Its 2009 sequel The Squeakquel improved on that performance with a $48 million three day and $75 million holiday start and eventual $219 million haul. Two years later, third pic Chipwrecked saw fortunes go down with a $23 million opening and $133 million overall showing.
The Road Chip faces two hurdles that could be equally troubling: the four year layoff (where kiddie franchise fans have now grown up) and the fact that it opens against Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which will undoubtedly bring in a massive family audience.
Considering those factors, this fourth chip down 80s cartoon memory lane should find itself with the weakest debut of the series thus far.
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million
For my Star Wars: The Force Awakens prediction, click here:
Nearly eight years after they had a decent size hit with Baby Mama, Tina Fey and Amy Poehler team up again for Sisters, out next Friday. The modestly budgeted $30 million comedy also stars Maya Rudolph, John Leguizamo, Ike Barinholtz, John Cena, James Brolin, and Dianne Wiest.
Universal Pictures is hoping that Sisters will appeal to a female demographic that may not be chomping at the bit to see Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which this bravely opens against. The two stars certainly have their fans and the strategy may work. 2008’s Baby Mama earned $17.4 million out of the gate and an eventual gross of a sturdy $64 million.
Based on the competition alone, I feel Sisters will struggle to reach that opening number next weekend yet it could manage close to Mama’s grosses if it performs well over the subsequent holiday weekends.
Sisters opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million
For my Star Wars: The Force Awakens prediction, click here:
It is not only the most anticipated film of the year but probably of the 21st century. This is not hyperbole. 38 years after George Lucas changed the movie industry forever with Star Wars, the baton has been passed to J.J. Abrams with Star Wars: The Force Awakens, out December 18. We’ve seen over a decade pass since the unevenly received second trilogy that ran from 1999-2005. This marked the end of Mr. Lucas’s involvement in the franchise and the end of 20th Century Fox producing the entries (no iconic Fox music before “In a galaxy far, far away” may take a little getting used to).
Instead we have Disney taking over the most beloved franchise in silver screen history and we’ve repeatedly seen their brilliance at marketing blockbusters (think Marvel Cinematic Universe). The Force Awakens has been omnipresent for months and it’s ramped up to the point where every other commercial seems to be connected somehow to it. The official trailers and TV spots have been events. It’s sold $100 million dollars at press time in pre-sale tickets, which was previously an unimaginable haul. With all the exposure, the studio has done a truly remarkable job in keeping plot details under wraps.
We know this: original trilogy stars Mark Hamill, Harrison Ford, and Carrie Fisher return in the iconic roles of Luke Skywalker, Han Solo, and Princess Leia. A new generation makes up the supporting cast that includes John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Daisy Ridley, Adam Driver, and Domhnall Gleeson. Oh and there’s Chewbacca, R2-D2, and C-3PO.
For those of us old enough to remember the breathless anticipation afforded to 1999’s Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace, it’s probably the only thing that compares in the past couple of decades. There are many hotly anticipated blockbusters but Star Wars is simply on a different planet.
So now the nine figure question: how much will The Force Awakens earn its opening weekend? How much is it capable of making? Will its debut set the all time record? Fascinating queries indeed, these are.
We begin with this: the current record holder came out just this summer when Jurassic World earned $208.8 million, which edged out previous champ The Avengers at $207 million. I’m sure Disney would love to get that record back that the dinosaurs took away in June. These are the only two pictures that have made over $200M out of the gate. Both were released in summer, as are seven of the all time top ten domestic premieres.
None came out in December and this is not an inconsequential point. In fact, the current highest December debut belongs to The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. It made $84 million and that’s good for just the 57th largest opening ever. Truth be told, even massive blockbusters that open in December usually open smaller than they might in the summer. 2009’s Avatar began with $77 million before becoming the biggest stateside grosser ever. The reason is simple: Christmas time releases tend to play well over multiple weekends while similar summer titles make the bulk of their coin immediately.
Let’s dispatch with the glaringly obvious: The Force Awakens will obliterate the December record. At worst, it should double The Hobbit’s initial earnings. Frankly, guessing what Star Wars is capable of is a dicey proposition, but the low end of estimates is around $170-$175 million. If it managed that, it would sincerely be a fine start.
Yet there is a suspicion that Jurassic’s six month long record could be headed for extinction. The combo of Disney hype and a true love across all ages for the series has contributed to an Event Experience we rarely witness. What’s the highest it could go? Honestly, I don’t know. The figure of $300 million has been mentioned. That seems a bit crazy, but you just never know. There’s part of me that believes $275-$280 million might just be reachable and another that feels it could fall short of the record with around $185-$205 million.
What’s a box office predicting blogger to do? Split the difference. With this wide range of possibilities, I’ll project that Star Wars: The Force Awakens will achieve the best American opening ever and by a rather considerable margin. I’ll be one among many speculating over the next ten days before its debut, but my two cents is in, my friends. Let’s see what happens!
Star Wars: The Force Awakens opening weekend prediction: $234.7 million
Just one week ago, I wrote a blog post detailing the Oscar prospects for David O. Russell’s latest Joy, which comes out on Christmas. Seven days ago, I believed its prospects for a nomination in Best Picture were still fairly decent. Some of this was due to Mr. Russell’s track record over the decade. His last three pictures – The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle – all were nominated, as was Russell. Those three movies represent an astounding 11 acting nominations with three wins. And the advance word of mouth on Joy was cautiously optimistic enough that I still felt it stood a good shot at Academy attention.
What a difference a week makes. The official embargo on Joy reviews was lifted this morning and a clearer picture has emerged. Bottom line: Joy will not be nominated for Best Picture. David O. Russell will not be nominated for Director. None of the supporting players that includes Robert De Niro, Bradley Cooper, Edgar Ramirez, Virginia Madsen, Diane Ladd, and Isabella Rossellini will hear their names called. Reviews have been extremely mixed. While some critics have heaped praised, other prominent reviewers have called it his worst movie. While the number is bound to fluctuate, it currently stands at just 53% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Fighter? 90%. Silver Linings Playbook? 92%. American Hustle? 93%. You get the idea.
The only bright spot is that Jennifer Lawrence’s inclusion in Best Actress still appears be solid. Writers have singled out her work and the superstar looks to land her third recognition in a row for a Russell directed effort.
The Joy bubble bursting will surely give rise to another film that many prognosticators had under their bubbles for Picture predictions, including my own. This could represent good news for pictures ranging from Mad Max: Fury Road to Creed to Son of Saul to Anomalisa to The Big Short.
One thing is nearly certain: Russell’s joyful Oscar streak looks to be finished.
Call it the call before an intergalactic storm as the second week of December brings just one new entry: Ron Howard’s In the Heart of the Sea with Chris Hemsworth. The film has picked up decent reviews (65% on Rotten Tomatoes) yet it seems to be flying a bit under the radar and it posted disappointing results in its overseas debut over the weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Even with my predicted mediocre opening for Sea, it shouldn’t have much trouble premiering at #1 as the rest of the top five should consist of holdovers The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, Krampus, Creed, and The Good Dinosaur. Comedic holiday horror fest Krampus had a better than anticipated opening (more on that below), but it should suffer the largest drop-off as that genre usually does.
All in all, it should be a pretty quiet weekend before the box office juggernaut Star Wars: The Force Awakens looks to demolish records the following week. And I’ll have my individual prediction post on that pic up later this week!
With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
In the Heart of the Sea
Predicted Gross: $18.4 million
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 44%)
3. The Good Dinosaur
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. Creed
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)
5. Krampus
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Box Office Results (December 4-6)
As expected, it was a quiet post Thanksgiving weekend at the box office as The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 managed to stay on top for the third weekend in a row. The bright spot was Krampus, which exceeded the expectations of prognosticators by a nice margin.
Katniss and company ruled the charts with $18.8 million, right in line with my $18.5M estimate and the final chapter in the franchise has taken in $227M.
Krampus soared past my $7.1 million projection to earn $16.2 million for a solid runner-up showing. The mostly well reviewed horror comedy, as mentioned, surpassed nearly all estimates.
Disney/Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur continued to show disappointing results with $15.3 million in weekend #2, below my $18.7M prediction. It stands at $75 million at press time and is in very real danger of being Pixar’s lowest domestic grosser of all time.
The critically hailed Creed made $14.9 million in its sophomore frame, a bit below my $16.4M estimate for an overall haul of $64M. A gross of over $100M seems within reach.
Finally, Spectre rounded out the top five with $5.5 million, in range with my $6M projection for a total of $184M.
The Austrian horror pic Goodnight Mommy gained some fairly significant attention stateside due to its hauntingly effective and hair raising trailer. The trailer is a work of art. The film itself? Well, it’s not without its merits for genre lovers. And it isn’t without its flaws.
Mommy takes place almost entirely at a remote lake house in Austria where the “Mommy” (Susanne Wuest) has just returned back after cosmetic surgery to her face. This leaves her with heavy bandages around her dome that are quite creepy. She is mother to twin 10 year old boys (real life twins Elias and Lukas Schwarz). Upon her return from her mysterious operation, they immediately notice that something seems off with her. She’s more temperamental. It gets to the point where the boys become convinced that Mommy is not Mommy at all and this sets a course from some disturbing set pieces and seriously questionable parenting.
Horror aficionados will likely eat up the sequences involving giant roaches and gut churning uses for Super Glue. However, this just applies to the art house crowd. Goodnight Mommy is by no means mainstream and I suspect many a casual genre fan will be let down. For starters, this is not to be judged by its considerably better trailer. Second, while the arty crowd may not mind the “twist” involved that can perhaps purposely be seen from a mile away, it hindered the process for me.
It’s a nice touch having real life twins play the scared youngsters here and the Schwarz brothers work well together. Wuest capably balances her complex role which alternates between being terrifying and being terrified. The production design with its off kilter and dispassionate home setting is first rate.
All in all, a jaw dropping moment here and there in Goodnight Mommy can’t really overcome the general obviousness of it all. I’ll give directors Veronika Franz and Severin Fiala credit for showing some promise to build on, but this movie will be remembered best for its magnificent preview watched by millions on YouTube and not the final product.
As critics organizations have started handing out their year end best of honors starting last week, two stories have stood in the forefront: the love fest enveloping Mad Max: Fury Road and the lack of attention to what many consider to be Oscar’s soft front runner. That would be Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight, the true life story of Boston Globe reporters exposing the Catholic Church priest sex abuse scandal. In fact, when Boston’s online critics organization bestowed their awards over the weekend, many assumed they would select Spotlight due to the geographic factor alone. They went with Max.
Today, however, two organizations from both coasts feted Spotlight with some love. It also finally got some hometown attention as the Boston Society of Film Critics named it their Best Picture. Just a few hours later, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association followed suit, making it a very good day for Spotlight.
Director McCarthy, on the other hand, was not picked by either coast in the Director race. Boston went with Todd Haynes for Carol and Los Angeles picked George Miller for Mad Max with Haynes as their runner up.
Truth be told, Spotlight winning the L.A. award may not be the greatest harbinger. In the 21st century, only one feature that won its top category went onto win the Oscar: 2009’s The Hurt Locker. The Los Angeles group is also known for making some out of left field choices in the acting races and they did with their supporting choices. Michael Shannon took Supporting Actor for the little seen 99 Homes and he’s not considered much of a threat in the Academy hunt. Runner up: Mark Rylance, whose chances are considerably better for Bridge of Spies. For Supporting Actress, they went with Alicia Vikander and she is widely expected to be nominated come Oscar time. Yet L.A. honored her for Ex Machina and not the film everyone expects her nomination for, The Danish Girl. Runner up: Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria and Ms. Stewart won in Boston today. Her previously thought to be improbable Oscar nod keeps growing more probable everyday.
For Best Actress, it was a nice day for Charlotte Rampling, who won on both coasts. Her performance in little seen drama 45 Years has also been gaining attention and that could well translate into an Academy notice. L.A.’s runner up was Brooklyn’s Saoirse Ronan and her Oscar chances are excellent.
Los Angeles may have provided a lifeline to Michael Fassbender who took Actor for Steve Jobs. That film’s Oscar chances have taken a hit due to its dismal box office performance and some have begun speculating whether that factor could affect even Fassbender getting noticed. These critics awards help. The runner up was Geza Rohrig for foreign feature Son of Saul. In Boston, there was a tie between Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant and Paul Dano in Love and Mercy. DiCaprio is seen by many as the current Academy front runner while Dano is being campaigned for in Supporting Actor at the Oscars (where his inclusion is definitely a question mark).
As always, I’ll keep updating you on these precursors as they continue. Today’s bottom line: a true spotlight on Spotlight.
Another day, another critics organization bestowing their best of in movies for 2015. And like the National Board of Review before it, the Boston Online Film Critics have honored Mad Max: Fury Road as their favorite of the year. Its director, George Miller, was victorious as well. This marks yet another win for the fourth entry in the action franchise and increases momentum for the Academy honoring it for a nod in January. I have yet to include Fury Road among my predicted nominees, but that could change soon.
Perhaps the most surprising thing about Max’s win in Boston was that they didn’t pick Spotlight, the Catholic Church priest scandal expose that centers on Boston Globe reporters. Spotlight was included among their other nine selections of the year’s best along with Creed, Brooklyn, Carol, Clouds of Sils Maria, Bridge of Spies, The Martian, Anomalisa, and Tangerine. Notable pics left off: The Revenant, The Hateful Eight, and Joy.
Boston’s selections also marked a great day for Creed. Michael B. Jordan took Best Actor and Sylvester Stallone got Supporting Actor. While Jordan’s chances at an Oscar nod are up in the air (though he’s got some momentum), Stallone is looking more and more like a lock for inclusion.
The actress categories mirrored what the New York critics did earlier this week. Saoirse Ronan won for lead in Brooklyn and she seems a safe bet for Academy attention. Kristen Stewart picked up her second award for the little seen Clouds of Sils Maria and while I’ve yet to list her as an Oscar nominee, she seems to be coming on strong over the past week.
As always, I’ll keep updating the blog as these awards precursors keep coming. Stay tuned!
We are a bit over a month away from Oscar nominations coming out (January 14th) and it’s time to ramp up my predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the eight top races. I’m adding the two Screenplay categories (Original and Adapted) for the first time and the plan is to make weekly Oscar predictions each weekend until nominations come out. With each race, I’ll inform you what’s changed since the previous predictions post.
And with that, let’s get to predicting, shall we?
Best Picture
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Other Possibilities:
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Creed
The Danish Girl
Joy
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Steve Jobs
Straight Outta Compton
Changes Since Last Predictions: Bridge of Spies, Inside Out (IN), Joy, Steve Jobs (OUT)
Best Director
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Other Possibilities:
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Ryan Coogler, Creed
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
David O. Russell, Joy
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Changes Since Last Predictions: George Miller (IN), David O. Russell (OUT)
Best Actor
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Michael Caine, Youth
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
Will Smith, Concussion
Changes Since Last Predictions: NONE
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Changes Since Last Predictions: Charlotte Rampling (IN), Blythe Danner (OUT)
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Other Possibilities:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Harvey Keitel, Youth
Jacob Tremblay, Room
Changes Since Last Predictions: Tom Hardy (IN), Idris Elba (OUT)
Best Supporting Actress
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Joan Allen, Room
Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Kristin Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Changes Since Last Predictions: Jane Fonda (IN), Joan Allen (OUT)
Best Original Screenplay (first prediction in category)
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Love and Mercy
Spotlight
Other Possibilities:
Joy
Sicario
Straight Outta Compton
Youth
Best Adapted Screenplay (first prediction in category)
Anomalisa
Brooklyn
Carol
Room
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
The Big Short
Creed
The Martian
The Revenant
And there you have it – folks! The next update will come next weekend…
While its reviews are embargoed for another week and a half or so, Quentin Tarantino’s eagerly awaited The Hateful Eight has conducted industry and critics screenings over the past few days. The celebrated and controversial director’s ninth feature film has been a major question mark as to its Oscar chances ever since the project was announced. Quentin’s last two features, 2009’s Inglourious Basterds and 2012’s Django Unchained, were both nominated for Best Picture so it stood to reason that Eight could follow suit.
The verdict based on word of mouth that’s seeped out? Well, it’s still a bit of a question mark. The Hateful Eight, based on its buzz, seems to be on the bubble of receiving a nod in the big race. Some screenings have indicated a mixed reaction and when it comes to ultra violent awards worthy fare, voters may only recognize Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s The Revenant. Based on these factors, I find it unlikely that Mr. Tarantino will nab his third nomination for Director (after 1994’s Pulp Fiction and Basterds). Where he’s more likely to be honored is in Original Screenplay, for which he’s won twice.
Tarantino pics have a nice history of getting their actors nominated and this is likely to hold true for Jennifer Jason Leigh in Supporting Actress. She could a threat to win. As for the males – Samuel L. Jackson, Kurt Russell, Bruce Dern, and others may cancel themselves out.
The other category where a nomination seems probable is Cinematography, where Robert Richardson’s work shooting in 70 mm is assured to earn him attention.
As the weeks roll along, you can follow how The Hateful Eight tracks as, beginning this weekend, I’ll be doing weekly updates on my Oscar predictions. Stay tuned!
