Author: toddmthatcher

Box Office Predictions: January 26-28

The month of January at the box office ends with one big new release and it’s Maze Runner: The Death Cure. The third franchise entry will look to finally dislodge Jumanji from its perch atop the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/17/maze-runner-the-death-cure-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I have Death not reaching the heights of its two predecessors. That said, even with a low 20s debut, it should be enough to allow it to become the first 2018 release to open #1 in 2018.

The other wide release is the expansion of Hostiles with Christian Bale. Despite stellar reviews, the once awards hopeful has been flying under the radar and posting lackluster per screen averages in its limited release. Current screen counts show it rolling out to 3000 screens. I’m a little skeptical it reaches that many (we’ll see on Thursday). If it does, I’ll peg its opening at $4.8 million and that leaves it outside the top five. If the theater count changes by Thursday, so will my estimate.

With competition rather light this weekend, holdovers should experience smallish declines with the seemingly unstoppable Jumanji, The Post and The Greatest Showman perhaps being the largest benefactors.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Maze Runner: The Death Cure

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million

2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million

3. The Post

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

4. 12 Strong 

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

Box Office Results (January 19-21)

For the third weekend in a row, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle dominated the box office charts while newcomers posted better than expected results. The franchise reboot took in $19.5 million and I was right there with my estimate of $19.6 million. It’s taken in $316 million overall.

The Chris Hemsworth led true life military tale 12 Strong took the runner-up position with a decent $15.8 million, topping my $13.9 million. That’s a smidge above what was expected of it.

The story of the weekend may well be the over performance of Gerard Butler’s Den of Thieves, which surprised everyone with a robust $15.2 million debut in third… way above my $6.1 million projection. It actually had the highest per screen average of all the wide releases over the weekend.

The Post was fourth in its second weekend of release with $11.7 million, shy of my $14 million projection for a total of $44 million.

The Greatest Showman rounded out the top 5 with $10.6 million (I said $9.9 million) for a tally of $113 million.

Finally, I incorrectly had The Commuter inside the top 5, but it was seventh with $6.6 million (I said $7.6 million). It’s two-week total is $25 million.

And that does it for now as far as box office predictions…

However, if you missed my FINAL Oscar predictions (they’re out tomorrow morning), you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/18/todds-2017-final-oscar-predictions/

The Killing of a Sacred Deer Movie Review

I’m not an attorney, but I’ve heard of the legal term known as Clean Hands. I might have heard it first from Judge Judy. Regardless, in layman’s speak, it means a defendant claims that a plaintiff can’t argue for equal remedy because they’re engaged in bad acts as well. I realize a lawyer might challenge my interpretation, but I’m reviewing a movie and I’m not on trial. Clean Hands could have been a more appropriate name than what I’m writing about, but instead we have the more pretentious The Killing of a Sacred Deer from director Yorgos Lanthimos.

The aggrieved party in our story is teenager Martin (Barry Keoghan), whose father died three years ago in a surgery performed by Dr. Steven Murphy (Colin Farrell, reuniting with his The Lobster director). The two befriend each other after the incident and Martin is eventually ingratiating himself with the doc’s family – wife Anna (Nicole Kidman), teen daughter Kim (Raffey Cassidy), and younger brother Bob (Sunny Suljic). Martin seems a bit strange and too eager to please, but his motives turn out far darker. He blames the doctor for his loss and plans to exact revenge.

Lanthimos isn’t interested with playing in the run of the mill revenge fantasy thriller genre. No family pet is harmed in the making of his screenplay with Efthymis Filippou, though there is one. Instead Martin wants to harm the family and any one of them will do. He also manages to capture the heart of Kim while he moves forward with his acts.

The Killing of a Sacred Deer is a dark and unsettling experience that sometimes struggles to earn the pain we go through watching it. From a technical standpoint, it’s often expertly rendered with a Kubrick like sense of clinical precision and a loud and evocative score. Farrell and Kidman (just seen together in The Beguiled) are just fine as the parents facing increasingly difficult circumstances and choices, but it’s Keoghan who electrifies plenty of his scenes. His misguided Martin gets under everyone’s skin, including ours.

That said, the style of Deer is frequently more potent than its subject and I struggled with whether it was worth it in the end. For all its bells and whistles, it kind of is a typical revenge fantasy with art house touches. Dr. Murphy may have made his mistakes, but there’s a Clean Hands defense when he discovers Martin’s bad acts. For this viewer, I offer a mixed defense of the picture itself.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Colette

The first major distribution deal at the Sundance Film Festival transpired this weekend when Bleecker Street and 30WEST acquired the rights to Colette. The biopic focuses on acclaimed French novelist Sidonie-Gabrielle Colette, played by Keira Knightley in a performance that has critics raving. Costars include Dominic West and Fiona Shaw. The pic is directed by Wash Westmoreland, who last helped guide Julianne Moore to a Best Actress Oscar in Still Alice.

It’s safe to assume the studios who payed for Colette will be making a push for Knightley to nab her second nomination after Pride and Prejudice in 2005. Her inclusion will depend on the competition over the next year and how well the film is marketed to audiences.

Bottom line: there’s enough buzz out of Utah to justify Knightley as one to watch in 2018.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Happy Death Day Movie Review

Happy Death Day begins with a universal disruption. Not the world suffering a catastrophe or anything of that sort, but the actual Universal logo repeating itself three times. It’s a signal of events to come in this horror version of Groundhog Day from the Blumhouse studio, which specializes in bargain basement budgeted genre pics.

The world as a whole may not be experiencing a crisis, but college student Tree (Jessica Rothe) sure is. Her birthday begins as many do for undergraduates. She wakes up in the dorm room of Carter (Israel Broussard) after a drunken night out. Not remembering the previous evening’s events, Tree makes a hasty exit complete with shame walking. She attends class where we learn she’s carrying on an affair with her professor. Tree doesn’t really gel with her sorority sisters, including her kindly roommate (Ruby Modine).

In fact, unlike most of the heroines in slasher flicks, Tree is a pretty unpleasant person. And she’s not that innocent. So I’ll give a bit of credit to screenwriter Scott Lobdell for changing that up, even if it makes her a smidge tougher to root for. When Tree goes out for another night of frivolity, she’s stalked and stabbed by a figure donning the mask of the university’s mascot.

And then… she wakes up on her birthday again nursing a hangover in Carter’s dorm room. Unlike Bill Murray rising to the sounds of Sonny and Cher, she repeats her day less than 20 times as she tries to figure out who’s knocking her off. Along the way, we learn some of the root causes of her unpleasantness. She’s mourning the loss of her mom for one. That death factors into the mix.

Happy Death Day has a sense of humor, which is often a good thing. Groundhog Day is mentioned as it would seem foolish not to (the title has become synonymous with anything repeating itself). Rothe is convincing as the bratty coed. Director Christopher B. Landon employs a handful of effective jump scares. The 90 minute runtime is a wise choice as the concept may not be able to sustain much more.

This is an easy and brisk watch. The PG-13 rating decision is a curious one and this may have been better served with more of the gore and aforementioned frivolity actually on display. Happy Death Day probably won’t stick in your memory for long, but it’s not a complete disruption of your time.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far On Foot

The Sundance Film Festival is in full swing in Utah and that means a batch of 2018 Oscar Watch columns are coming your way. In 2017, the fest gave us four pictures that find themselves in the awards mix: Get Out, Call Me by Your Name, Mudbound, and The Big Sick.

We begin with Gus Van Sant’s Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far On Foot, a biopic of Oregon cartoonist and quadriplegic John Callahan. He’s played by Joaquin Phoenix with a supporting cast that includes Jonah Hill, Rooney Mara, and Jack Black. Some of the early reviews out of Park City are quite positive, though not all of them are across the board. It’s scheduled for stateside release this May.

The project was originally intended as a starring vehicle for the late Robin Williams and it would’ve marked a reunion with his Good Will Hunting director. Van Sant has seen that film and 2008’s Milk garner multiple Oscar nods.

Could Foot follow suit? It’s certainly possible, especially for Phoenix and Hill. If so, it would mark the former’s fourth nod and the latter’s third. Neither have yet to win. Interestingly, Phoenix could face competition in the form of himself as his You Were Never Really Here played the festival circuit last year and won him acclaim.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2017 SAG Awards Predictions

With Oscar nominations set to drop Tuesday, a big precursor is bestowing trophies on Sunday night when the SAG Awards air. Oftentimes, this particular show can be a better indicator of things to come at the Academy Awards than the Golden Globes.

In the 23 years that the SAG ceremony has been held, the winners of the four categories have matched up with Oscar as follows:

Actor: 18/23

Actress: 17/23

Supporting Actor: 14/23

Supporting Actress: 16/23

Of course, since this is an award given out by fellow actors, there is no “Best Picture” category. Instead the night’s top prize is Best Ensemble (which has matched Best Picture just 10 of 23 times). The individual acting races could give further fuel to performers looking for that Oscar and continue to dilute the hopes of others.

Here’s my estimates for the SAG winners on Sunday:

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees:

The Big Sick

Get Out

Lady Bird

Mudbound 

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted Winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Predicted Winner: Gary Oldman

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Predicted Winner: Frances McDormand

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted Winner: Willem Dafoe

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Hong Chau, Downsizing

Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Predicted Winner: Allison Janney

And there you have it! You can peruse my FINAL Oscar predictions here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/18/todds-2017-final-oscar-predictions/

 

Todd’s 2017 FINAL Oscar Predictions

Well, here we are folks!

For over four months, I have been making weekly Oscar predictions and it all comes down to this Tuesday morning when they are at last revealed. These are my FINAL predictions along with a first and second alternate in each category.

Tuesday on the blog – I’ll have results on how I did with reaction to the nominations in general. Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Call Me by Your Name

Dunkirk

The Florida Project

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

1st Alternate – I, Tonya

2nd Alternate – The Big Sick

Best Director

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Jordan Peele, Get Out

1st Alternate – Steven Spielberg, The Post

2nd Alternate – Sean Baker, The Florida Project

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

1st Alternate – Tom Hanks, The Post

2nd Alternate – Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Actress

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Meryl Streep, The Post

1st Alternate – Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game

2nd Alternate – Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

1st Alternate – Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

2nd Alternate – Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Hong Chau, Downsizing

Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

1st Alternate – Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

2nd Alternate – Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me by Your Name

The Disaster Artist

Molly’s Game

Mudbound

Wonder

1st Alternate – Victoria and Abdul

2nd Alternate – Wonderstruck

Best Original Screenplay

Get Out

I, Tonya

Lady Bird

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

1st Alternate – The Big Sick

2nd Alternate – The Florida Project

Best Animated Feature

The Breadwinner

Coco

Ferdinand

The Girl Without Hands

Loving Vincent

1st Alternate – The LEGO Batman Movie

2nd Alternate – Cars 3

Best Foreign Language Film

A Fantastic Woman

Foxtrot

The Insult

In the Fade

Loveless

1st Alternate – The Square

2nd Alternate – The Wound

Best Documentary Feature

City of Ghosts

Faces Places

Icarus

Jane

Long Strange Trip

1st Alternate – Strong Island

2nd Alternate – Last Men in Aleppo

Best Film Editing

Baby Driver

Dunkirk

I, Tonya

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

1st Alternate – The Post 

2nd Alternate – Get Out

Best Cinematography

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

Mudbound

The Post

The Shape of Water

1st Alternate – Darkest Hour

2nd Alternate – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Production Design

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

1st Alternate – Beauty and the Beast

2nd Alternate – Murder on the Orient Express

Best Costume Design

Beauty and the Beast

Murder on the Orient Express

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Victoria and Abdul

1st Alternate – The Post

2nd Alternate – The Beguiled

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Darkest Hour

I, Tonya

Wonder

1st Alternate – Bright

2nd Alternate – Victoria and Abdul

Best Visual Effects

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

War for the Planet of the Apes

1st Alternate – Okja

2nd Alternate – Kong: Skull Island

Best Sound Editing

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

War for the Planet of the Apes

1st Alternate – The Shape of Water

2nd Alternate – The Greatest Showman

Best Sound Mixing

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Greatest Showman

The Shape of Water

1st Alternate – Star Wars: The Lat Jedi

2nd Alternate – Beauty and the Beast

Best Original Score

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

1st Alternate – Victoria and Abdul

2nd Alternate – Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Original Song

“It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit

“Mighty River” from Mudbound

“Remember Me” from Coco

“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall

“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

1st Alternate – “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast

2nd Alternate – “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name 

And that leaves the final predicted list of nominations for each picture:

13 Nominations

The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

Dunkirk

7 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5 Nominations

Lady Bird, I, Tonya, Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Get Out, Phantom Thread, Darkest Hour, The Post, Mudbound

3 Nominations

Baby Driver

2 Nominations

The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Wonder, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes, The Greatest Showman

1 Nomination

Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Beauty and the Beast, Murder on the Orient Express, Victoria and Abdul, Detroit, Marshall, The Breadwinner, Ferdinand, The Girl Without Hands, Loving Vincent, A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, The Insult, In the Fade, Loveless, City of Ghosts, Faces Places, Icarus, Jane, Long Strange Trip 

And there you have it, folks! I’ll have reaction up Tuesday…

Maze Runner: The Death Cure Box Office Prediction

Concluding a trilogy started in 2014, Maze Runner: The Death Cure races into theaters next Friday. Based on the James Dashner series of YA books, the sci-fi action pic stars Dylan O’Brien, Kaya Scodelario, Thomas Brodie-Sangster, Will Poulter, Nathalie Emmanuel, Giancarlo Esposito, Walton Goggins, Barry Pepper, and Patricia Clarkson. Wes Ball, who directed the first two installments, returns behind the camera. Reviews are so so thus far with a 40% Rotten Tomatoes score.

The reported $83 million production was originally scheduled for release in February 2017 until an injury suffered by star O’Brien on the set delayed production. The nearly two and a half-year lag time between sequels could be a hindrance to its potential.

In September 2014, the original Runner opened to $32 million with an eventual $102 million domestic haul. Sequel The Scorch Trials arrived one year later to diminishing returns – a $30 million debut and $81 million overall take. Enough of the fan base may stick around, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Death take in about 25% less out of the gate than its predecessor in 2015.

Maze Runner: The Death Cure opening weekend prediction: $22.8 million

In a Valley of Violence Movie Review

For all I know, director Ti West was exposed to the films of Quentin Tarantino last week. I doubt it. His western doesn’t really like feel inspired by QT’s genre works like Django Unchained and The Hateful Eight.

Instead, it seems like Mr. West’s western could be a product of the fact that the filmmaker was a young teen when Pulp Fiction came out in 1994. Just maybe that teen wanted to make a genre pic that felt a bit like Tarantino – the sudden jolts of violence, the dialogue that sounds a little hipper than the time period, the cool vintage fonts on the title cards. In 1994, Pulp resuscitated John Travolta’s career. Here he’s cast as the nefarious Marshal ruling a deserted Old West town. Ethan Hawke became a Gen X star that year as well in Reality Bites. Here he’s the strong, silent, and complicated hero who must go up against him. Maybe I’m reaching for connections to make my point. However, that’s how In a Valley of Violence felt to me and it was an appealing experience. And I haven’t mentioned the super cool dog yet…

Paul (Hawke) and his dog Abbie (Jumpy) are making their way to Mexico (their motives are unclear for a bit) when he comes across the town of Denton. It’s sparse in both population and set design, allowing this to look like a low-budget old timey western from decades ago. Blumhouse, the studio that specializes in bargain basement priced horror flicks, is behind this so it makes some sense. It’s clear that Paul knows how to fight, but doesn’t want to. Unfortunately dim-witted deputy Gilly (James Ransone) rattles his cage in small ways at first and then big ones. Suddenly Paul’s trip south of the border is delayed for revenge purposes. And he must also deal with Gilly’s father, Travolta’s aforementioned Marshal.

Valley doesn’t take itself very seriously. There’s a lot of humor and much of it is well written and well placed. Travolta has been known to overact over the last couple decades since his comeback. Here he does it in a role that seems appropriate for it. Hawke plays the lonely cowboy straight and solidly. Taissa Farmiga provides a spark as a town resident desperate to get out. And it’s not often I’d mention the real name of the dog in a film, but Jumpy deserves the shout out for a real performance. More kudos go to composer Jeff Grace for a pitch perfect score.

Again, I have no idea if my Ti West/Tarantino hypothesis (who’s worked in horror before this) holds merit. No, it doesn’t reach the brilliant level of impact and the dialogue isn’t consistently as poetic as Quentin’s. There’s moments and enough of them, however, to make the connection worth mentioning.

*** (out of four)

 

 

Box Office Predictions: January 19-21

Blogger’s Note (01/18/18): I am revising my 12 Strong prediction from $17.9 million down to $13.9 million

Two new titles vie for action fan attention this weekend as military themed 12 Strong and heist themed Den of Thieves debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

12 Strong Box Office Prediction

Den of Thieves Box Office Prediction

12 Strong could potentially make a play for the top spot, but I suspect Jumanji will continue its dominance in first place. Looking over the post MLK weekend from years past, it’s not rare for holdovers to experience smallish declines. I suspect that will hold true for Jumanji and The Post.

Along those lines, The Greatest Showman should drop to fourth with The Commuter rounding out the top 5. My $6.1 million estimate for Den of Thieves puts it outside my high five.

And with that – here they are!

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

2. The Post

Predicted Gross: $14 million

3. 12 Strong

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

4. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million

5. The Commuter

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (January 12–15)

Jumanji continued its remarkable run atop the charts over the four day MLK weekend with $35.1 million, edging past my prediction of $32.7 million. The smash sequel has amassed $291 million since its Christmas time debut.

There were plenty of new releases and expansions this weekend and Steven Spielberg’s Oscar hopeful The Post fared best in second with $23 million, in line with my $22.3 million estimate.

The Greatest Showman continued its stellar run with $16.1 million, singing beyond my $12.6 million prediction. It’s ready to join the century club as it stands at $98 million.

Liam Neeson took fourth with The Commuter as it opened with a fairly solid $15.8 million (I was a touch lower at $14.6 million).

One of the surprises of the weekend was the disappointing performance for critically acclaimed kiddie sequel Paddington 2, debuting in fifth with a mediocre $15 million. I had it pegged for a #2 premiere at $22.4 million. Oops.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi was sixth with $14.6 million (I said $15.5 million) for $594 million total.

Insidious: The Last Key fell from second to seventh with $14.3 million compared to my $13.2 million estimate. It’s earned $50 million in its two weeks of release.

In eighth place, Proud Mary with Taraji P. Henson had a muted start with $11.7 million, well under my $18.5 million projection.

Pitch Perfect 3 was ninth with $7.3 million. My prediction? $7.3 million. Woot woot. The three-quel is also on the cusp of nine figures with $96 million.

I incorrectly had Darkest Hour outside the top 10, but it placed 10th with $5.4 million and $36 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…