Author: toddmthatcher

Oscar Watch: mother!

One of the more eagerly awaited titles has screened at the Venice Film Festival as Darren Aronofsky’s mother! has seen its first reactions. The psychological horror pic debuts stateside next weekend and early word-of-mouth indicates it’s quite a head trip.

One could see from the effective trailers that mother! looks bizarre and pretty out there. It’s a tale of a couple (Jennifer Lawrence and Javier Bardem) whose remote home is visited by various strangers, including Ed Harris and Michelle Pfeiffer. The Venice reaction was reportedly all over the map – a mix of wild cheering and boos. This could indicate how audiences may feel about it. mother! is said to be in the vein of the director’s earlier Black Swan (which received multiple nominations and a Best Actress win for Natalie Portman) and Rosemary’s Baby. 

While mother! currently stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, its apparent divisiveness could stand as a hindrance for a Best Picture or Director nomination. That said, it could also benefit from some voters ranking it as their #1 or #2 picture on the ballot.

As for the performers, Jennifer Lawrence would be gunning for her fifth nomination. She won in 2012 for Silver Linings Playbook, got lead nominations for Winter’s Bone (2010) and Joy (2015), and was nominated for Supporting Actress for American Hustle (2013). It’s been discussed a lot on this blog recently, but the Actress category is looking very strong right now and her inclusion could be a long shot. The best chance at recognition could belong to Michelle Pfeiffer, a three-time nominees whose last nod came 25 years ago. It should depend on the strength of that category, which is yet undetermined.

Bottom line: mother! has rather unsurprisingly garnered acclaim, but how it plays with audiences remains to be seen. We shall know soon enough and that may be a determining factor as to its Oscar viability.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Annette Bening is an actress that some might be surprised to find has never won an Oscar. She’s been nominated for four – as Supporting Actress in 1990’s The Grifters and in the lead race for 1999’s American Beauty, 2004’s Being Julia, and 2010’s The Kids Are All Right. In 1999 and 2004, she was considered a front runner for much of the season and was defeated by Hilary Swank both years.

Ms. Bening will not be “swanked” in 2017, but she may have trouble getting into the mix altogether. Paul McGuigan’s Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool premiered at the Telluride Film Festival. The May-December romance casts its lead as old school Hollywood actress Gloria Grahame and focuses on her relationship with a younger man portrayed by Jamie Bell.

Much like another festival screening this weekend – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – the early awards chatter focused solely on the female lead. With Ebbing, the new buzz has also centered on costar Sam Rockwell. With Liverpool, some reviews have singled out Bell as the real revelation and a possibility for Supporting Actor.

Critical reaction has been mixed and even with Best Actress looking extremely competitive, Bening could still manage to get in. However, that looks less likely now than it did before the long weekend began. And despite the Bell praise, I don’t envision him getting in if his counterpart doesn’t.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Another day, another entry in the Best Actress derby as Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has premiered at the Venice Film Festival. This time it’s Frances McDormand, starring in Martin McDonagh’s pic about a mother going to great lengths to find her daughter’s killers.

Early reviews suggest a strong and nuanced performance from McDormand, who won Best Actress 21 years ago for Fargo. She’s also been nominated three other times in Supporting for 1988’s Mississippi Burning, 2000’s Almost Famous, and 2005’s North Country. While Missouri could feasibly nab McDormand her fifth nod, it’s no slam dunk and that’s due to competition that has been discussed on the blog all weekend.

An interesting nugget from the Venice buzz surrounds Sam Rockwell, whose performance seems to be generating more word-of-mouth than Woody Harrelson’s in Supporting Actor. If Rockwell manages to land a nomination, it would be his first and looked at as long overdue by many.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Hostiles

Today’s earlier Oscar Watch post focused on Victoria and Abdul, the Queen Victoria biopic featuring Judi Dench that’s set in the late 19th century. We are in the same time period for this next write-up, but it’s a much different genre and setting.

Scott Cooper’s Hostiles has premiered at the Telluride Film Festival and award chatter for it has been bolstered. Christian Bale headlines as an Army captain escorting a Native American chief back to his native land. The Western’s costars include Rosamund Pike, Wes Studi, Jesse Plemons, Ben Foster, and Timothee Chalamet (who could be in the Oscar mix for another performance in Call Me by Your Name).

Cooper directed Jeff Bridges to an Oscar win in 2009 with Crazy Heart. This is his second collaboration with Bale after 2013’s Out of the Furnace and his follow-up to the 2015 Johnny Depp Whitney Bulger pic Black Mass. Any advance word of Hostiles has been low-key for a rather simple reason. It’s yet to have been picked up by a distributor so its release by 2017 was uncertain. Positive word-of-mouth emanating from Telluride should solve that problem.

That said, whichever studio that picks up Hostiles for an awards qualifying run will have a stiff challenge. The film’s success or non success among audiences could determine whether it’s seriously looked at as a contender. Time will tell, but at the least Telluride has provided it hope for Academy attention.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KczRX9oOl5U

Oscar Watch: Victoria and Abdul

Victoria & Abdul has screened at the Venice Film Festival and the late 19th century period piece has been looked at as potentially scoring Judi Dench her eighth Oscar nomination. Why? Well, pretty simple: 1) it’s Judi Dench; 2) it casts her once again as Queen Victoria, whom she played in 1997’s Mrs. Brown where she landed her first nod; 3) it reunites her with her Philomena director Stephen Frears where she received her seventh nomination; and 4) it’s Judi Dench, people.

Predictably, the Dame has garnered solid notices for her return to the role two decades later. That said, competition is becoming fierce in the Actress race. Both the Venice and Telluride Festivals have showcased potential nominees such as Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes, Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water, Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird, and Annette Bening in Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool. That’s in addition to some performances with promise like Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Jennifer Lawrence in Mother!, as well as pics to be screened later showcasing Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game) and Meryl Streep (The Post).

There’s only five nominations to go around and Dench could find herself on the outside looking in. It’s also highly unlikely costar Ali Fazal or the Picture or Director will find themselves in contention.

Bottom line: it’s Judi Dench (once again), so there’s a chance but competition could provide some difficulties for nod #8.

Oscar Watch: Battle of the Sexes

Another widely anticipated Oscar hopeful was served up at the Telluride Film Festival as Battle of the Sexes has screened. The film is centered on the 1973 tennis match between Billie Jean King (Emma Stone) and Bobby Riggs (Steve Carell) and comes from Little Miss Sunshine makers Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris.

Early buzz out of Telluride suggests this is a major crowd pleaser and also a timely tale about gender that is being compared to the 2016 presidential election. If Sexes manages to score with audiences (and it likely will), that momentum could carry it to Best Picture recognition (I’m not quite as sold yet on a nomination for its directors).

Then there’s Emma Stone, who won just last year for La La Land. She looks poised to receive yet another nod and it would be her third in four years (she got a Supporting nomination for 2014’s Birdman). It was also confirmed this week that Carell will be campaigned for in lead Actor. His inclusion in that category should hinge on how potentially considerable competition shakes out in coming weeks and months.

Bottom line: Battle of the Sexes was expected to be in the conversation for Oscar attention and today solidified that.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Suburbicon

George Clooney’s directorial career has one Oscar bright spot in the form of 2005’s Good Night, and Good Luck which received six nominations, including Picture and Director. His other work behind the camera (2002’s Confessions of a Dangerous Mind, 2008’s Leatherheads, 2011’s The Ides of March, 2014’s The Monuments Men) haven’t fared as well on the awards circuit. With its Venice Film Festival, Clooney’s latest Suburbicon is looking like it will belong in the latter category.

The 1950s set crime comedy was penned by acclaimed directors Joel and Ethan Coen and early critical reaction indicates it has the feel of one of their efforts. However, reviews thus far are mixed with a current 60% Rotten Tomatoes score. Matt Damon, Julianne Moore, and Oscar Isaac are among the cast. Mr. Damon could have more of a good night and good luck come Oscar time with Downsizing, but I don’t look for Suburbicon to receive much attention come nominations time (perhaps some Golden Globe in the Comedy categories could surface).

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Darkest Hour

My recent Oscar Watch posts have largely focused on the Venice Film Festival (and there’s more posts from that fest coming your way shortly), but the Telluride Film Festival is also underway and it premiered Joe Wright’s eagerly awaited Darkest Hour. 

The film casts Gary Oldman as British Prime Minister Winston Churchill during WWII and the actor has been considered a Best Actor front runner for some time already. The Telluride screening all but confirms that notion with Oldman drawing raves for his performance. Crazily enough, with the lead’s three decade long sterling career, he’s only managed one Academy nod for 2011’s Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. It’s safe to say that this will land him his second as Variety deemed him the instant favorite.

While Oldman’s nomination has always seemed likely, initial reaction also puts Darkest in line for potential Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay (Anthony McCarten) nods and some down the line technical categories. Interestingly, it’s Ben Mendelsohn’s supporting work that’s garnered notice and not Kristin Scott Thomas, who now seems a bit of a long shot for Supporting Actress.

Bottom line: Darkest reaction sheds light on several potential nominations, but Oldman’s seems assured.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

 

Todd’s Early 2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

We have now arrived at Best Actor for my earliest 2017 Oscar predictions! At first glance, this appears to be potentially loaded with heavy hitters. This includes Gary Oldman going for his first Oscar as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, Daniel Day-Lewis going for his fourth (!) in Phantom Thread, and Tom Hanks going for #3 in The Papers. We also have Hugh Jackman in what could be a show stopping role as P.T. Barnum in The Greatest Showman and Joaquin Phoenix in his already screened and acclaimed performance for You Were Never Really Here. 

This is addition to several other very recognizable names listed as possibilities. Bottom line: Best Actor looks packed in 2017 and here’s my initial projections:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

Tom Hanks, The Papers

Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

Other Possibilities:

Chadwick Boseman, Marshall

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

Matt Damon, Downsizing

Andrew Garfield, Breathe

Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin

Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House

Robert Redford, Our Souls at Night

Denzel Washington, Roman Israel Esq.

Best Director is next, folks!

Todd’s Early 2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

In my earliest of Oscar predictions now that autumn and festival season is upon us, we’ve arrived at Best Actress! If you missed my previous posts on the Supporting categories, you may peruse them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/30/todds-early-2017-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/30/todds-early-2017-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

Yesterday’s Venice screening of The Shape of Water significantly increased the possibility that Sally Hawkins could find herself in the mix. Another piece of the puzzle should come into focus this weekend as Frances McDormand’s work in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is screened for festival goers. Same goes for Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes, Judi Dench in Victoria and Abdul and Jennifer Lawrence in mother!

Obviously, there’s much uncertainty at this juncture but not for long and here’s my first pass at Best Actress:

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game

Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Meryl Streep, The Papers

Other Possibilities:

Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night 

Isabelle Huppert, Happy End

Diane Kruger, In the Fade

Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outisde Ebbing, Missouri

Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Debra Winger, The Lovers

Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

Best Actor will be up next!