Blumhouse Productions hopes to have a sleeper hit on their hands over Labor Day weekend with Don’tLetGo. The supernatural thriller finds David Oyelowo attempting to retroactively prevent the death of loved ones. Jacob Aaron Estes directs with a supporting cast including Storm Reid, Bryon Mann, Mykelti Williamson, Alfred Molina, and Brian Tyree Henry.
The pic premiered eight months ago at the Sundance Film Festival to mixed reaction. Its Rotten Tomatoes score is at 47%. That’s not a great number to generate buzz and Go appears to be lacking it. While it’s a little risky to underestimate Blumhouse, the Labor Day release date isn’t exactly a vote of confidence.
I’ll say this doesn’t manage to achieve double digits over the four day holiday weekend. Mid single digits is possibly where this goes.
Don’tLetGo opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Expect a rather sleepy weekend at the box office as the dog days of August roll along. We have three releases ahead of us as action threequel AngelHasFallen, sports themed Christian drama Overcomer, and critically hailed black comedy ReadyorNot debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
While I do have Angel flying to the top spot, I have performing under the premieres of predecessors Olympus and LondonHasFallen. I think there’s a chance it goes even lower and finds itself in a race for #1 with the second weekend of GoodBoys (which surpassed all prognoses this weekend).
Overcomer is an interesting one. It’s from the director of WarRoom, which performed spectacularly four summers ago. These faith based pics have a history to over perform, though that’s not always guaranteed. I’m giving it the five spot behind the fourth weekend of Hobbs&Shaw and sixth weekend of TheLionKing.
I am not seeking an impressive gross for ReadyorNot despite its solid reviews. It’s out on Wednesday. My $5.8 million traditional Friday to Sunday estimate and $7.7 million five-day projection leaves it outside my top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
2. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
3. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
4. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
5. Overcomer
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
BoxOfficeResults (August16–18)
It was a frame that saw five new releases and if it wasn’t named GoodBoys, it didn’t do well. The aforementioned preteen comedy took in $21.4 million, way beyond my $14.3 million prediction. Boys is the first R rated comedy to hit #1 in over three years and it should manage to leg out decently.
Hobbs&Shaw was second with $14.1 million, a touch more than my $12.8 million estimate. It’s at $133 million.
TheLionKing took third at $12.3 million (I said $11.1 million) for a whopping $496 million overall.
TheAngryBirdsMovie2, which I said would be #1, struggled in fourth with just $10.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $16 million since its Tuesday opening. That’s well below my expectations of $17.2 million and $25.4 million, respectively.
ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $10 million. My prediction? $10 million! Tally is $40 million.
DoraandtheLostCityofGold mined $8.5 million in its sophomore outing for sixth (I said $9.3 million). The unimpressive total is $33 million.
47MetersDown: Uncaged was lost at sea in seventh place with $8.4 million. I was higher at $10.2 million. The shark sequel couldn’t match the $11 million plus earned by its predecessor two summers ago.
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood was eighth with $7.6 million, in line with my $7.1 million estimate. The Quentin Tarantino flick stands at $114 million.
I incorrectly had TheArtofRacingintheRain outside the top ten, but it was ninth with $4.5 million. Two-week gross is $17 million.
The Bruce Springsteen inspired dramedy BlindedbytheLight failed to find an audience in tenth with $4.3 million (I gave it more at $5.8 million).
Finally, Richard Linklater’s Where’dYouGo, Bernadette performed even weaker in 11th with a measly $3.4 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast.
Perhaps this is more of a Golden Globes Watch when it comes to the new comedy BrittanyRunsaMarathon. The pic features Jillian Bell as a hard partying single lady whose life is altered when she competes for the NYC Marathon. It screened at the Sundance Film Festival back in January to solid buzz. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 93% ahead of its release this weekend.
Bell has been a scene stealer on TV’s “Workaholics” and features such as 22JumpStreet. This appears to be her breakout starring role and some reviews have suggested it could be a minor hit if Amazon handles marketing correctly. While this holds little chance at Oscar recognition, it will be interesting to see if the studio mounts a campaign for Bell for Best Actress in Musical/Comedy at the Globes. She could follow in the footsteps of Amy Schumer in Trainwreck for a similar part that got nominated. That said, Brittany is definitely lower profile. My Oscar (or GG) Watch posts will continue…
A darkly comedic game of hide and seek is unveiled Wednesday in theaters next week in ReadyorNot. The pic stars Margot Robbie… actually it’s Samara Weaving (niece of Hugo). She’s a doppelgänger for Robbie and she plays a bride to be in a filthy rich family who subject her to the aforementioned game where they hunt her down. Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett direct. Costars include Mark O’Brien, Adam Brody, Henry Czerny, and Andie MacDowell.
Not was readied for a premiere in July at the Fantasia International Film Festival and critical reaction was strong. It currently holds a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, I’m not at all confident this will manage to break out with a wide audience. A late August release date doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. This could struggle to reach double digits over its five-day rollout and that means mid single digits for the traditional Friday to Sunday frame is what I’m thinking.
ReadyorNot opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $7.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The fact that acclaimed filmmaker Richard Linklater’s latest effort lifted its review embargo one day before release could be seen as a red flag. Considering his previous pic LastFlagFlying didn’t particularly connect with critics or audiences might have been seen as a harbinger of things to come for Where’dYouGo, Bernadette.
Reaction out today confirms the suspicions. The Cate Blanchett led mystery comedy, based on Maria Semple’s 2012 bestseller, holds just a 35% Rotten Tomatoes score at press time. Five years after Linklater’s Boyhood won and was nominated for multiple Oscars, it appears this will be quickly forgotten in the slow August frame.
Blanchett has managed some praise for her work. It’s been 15 years since she won Supporting Actress for Martin Scorsese’s TheAviator and 6 years since she took gold for her leading role in Woody Allen’s BlueJasmine. She’s been nominated five other times.
I wouldn’t anticipate this will be #8. And overall – If Oscar watchers are looking for Bernadette come nominations time, they’ll be left wondering where it went. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The brothers Alex and Stephen Kendrick’s brand of faith based features have had an impressive road to box office success. They hope to continue that trend next weekend with Overcomer. The sports themed drama is Alex’s directorial follow-up to 2015’s WarRoom, which shocked prognosticators with its eventual earnings. Stephen serves as co-writer for the screenplay with Alex in the starring role and costars including Priscilla Shirer and Shari Rigby.
Prior to WarRoom, the Kendricks Fireproof and Courageous both topped $30 million domestically. Room took them to a new level with an $11 million start as it legged out impressively to $67 million.
If Overcomer were to hit double digits, it won’t be as surprising as their previous hit. I’ll say it misses that mark, but it’s certainly in the realm of possibility.
Overcomer opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million
After premiering at the Sundance Film Festival in January, racial drama Luce has been doing decent limited release business over the past couple weeks. The film centers around a high school athletic prodigy (Kelvin Harrison Jr., in a performance drawing raves) and his adoptive parents played by Naomi Watts and Tim Roth. Octavia Spencer costars.
Luce drew its share of admirers on the festival circuit and it currently holds a 91% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Nigerian filmmaker Julius Onah directs with a screenplay he co-wrote along with JC Lee. It’s probably Original Screenplay where this holds a slight chance at being recognized. The likely scenario is this gets lost in the shuffle behind higher profile releases. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
After premiering last weekend in limited release to pleasing box office results, ThePeanutButterFalcon is generating buzz among audiences. The dramedy centers on a boy with Down syndrome (Zack Gottsagen) who dreams of becoming a pro wrestler and his unique journey to get there. The impressive supporting cast includes Shia LaBeouf (experiencing an indie career resurgence with this and HoneyBoy), Dakota Johnson, John Hawkes, Bruce Dern, Jon Bernthal, and Thomas Haden Church. It marks the directorial debut of Tyler Nilson and Michael Schwartz, who also penned the screenplay inspired by the tale of Huckleberry Finn.
When Falcon debuted earlier this year at the South by Southwest Festival, it picked up an Audience Favorite prize. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 96%. Could Academy voters take notice?
In order for that to occur, the pic will really need to take off with crowds in coming weeks and the jury is still out. I would say it stands an outside shot at an Original Screenplay nod, but competition could be brutal. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
In 2913, OlympusHasFallen surprised box office prognosticators with a gross of $98 million stateside, eclipsing the earnings of the similarly themed and higher profile WhiteHouseDown from that same year. The Gerard Butler action thriller has now spawned two sequels with AngelHasFallen rising in cinemas next weekend.
Butler’s Secret Service agent now finds himself framed for the attempted assassination of Morgan Freeman’s character. Ric Roman Waugh, best known for directing Dwayne Johnson in Snitch, is behind the camera. Costars include Jada Pinkett Smith, Lance Reddick, Tim Blake Nelson, Piper Perabo, Danny Huston, and Nick Nolte.
As mentioned, Olympus was a sleeper hit that soared out of the gate with $30 million. 2016 follow-up LondonHasFallen couldn’t match those numbers with a $21 million start and $62 million eventual tally.
My expectation is that the third edition will continue the downward trend. Mid to possibly high teens is likely. In the dog days of August, that might be enough for an unremarkable #1 debut.
AngelHasFallen opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million
After premiering in its home country in May at the Cannes Film Festival, the historical love story PortraitofaLadyonFire will make its North American debut at the Toronto Film Festival shortly. It marks the fourth directorial feature for Céline Sciamma and it made a splash with its European rollout. Set in 1770, Portrait centers on a forbidden romance between a would be bride and the woman commissioned to paint her portrait.
It won the Best Screenplay award at Cannes and currently has a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The film was acquired by Neon and Hulu for stateside distribution later this year. It stands an excellent chance at being France’s official selection for the Best International Feature category at the Academy Awards. Based on its sizzling buzz, its inclusion in that race is a strong possibility. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
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