Best Picture 2018: The Final Five

We have reached 2018 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-17, they are linked at the bottom of the post.

2018 is a tricky year to winnow down. In fact, all 8 nominees have strong cases to make the final five. Only one thing is for sure. Peter Farrelly’s Green Book is one of the five considering it won Best Picture. It stands as one of the more surprising (and derided) victors in recent years. The race relations drama went an impressive 3/5 on its nominations – taking Picture, Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali), and Original Screenplay and missing Actor (Viggo Mortensen) and Film Editing.

So what of the other seven hopefuls? Here’s my speculation:

Black Panther

The only MCU flick (and for that matter comic book adaptation) to score a BP nom was Ryan Coogler’s phenomenon with Chadwick Boseman as the title character. Its seven nominations included three wins for Score, Production Design, and Costume Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Besides BP, the other six mentions were all technical. It missed directing, any acting inclusions, screenplay, and even editing. It’s hard to leave this out though that’s the case with everything here.

BlacKkKlansman

Spike Lee received his first and only Oscar for his adapted screenplay. That’s the only victory of the night among its six total nods as Lee did make the quintet for direction. The others were Supporting Actor (Adam Driver), Score, and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Had this not taken Adapted Screenplay, I’d leave this off. Yet that win has me (somewhat reluctantly) leaving it in.

Bohemian Rhapsody

Rami Malek was crowned Best Actor for his performance as Queen frontman Freddie Mercury in the biopic. Despite mixed reviews, Rhapsody was successful in four of its five noms. Picture is the only race it didn’t win as it took Actor, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. That 80% ratio solidifies it even without attention for the direction or screenplay.

The Favourite

The period piece from Yorgos Lanthimos tied all nominees with 10. The lone victory was an unexpected one as Olivia Colman took Best Actress over the favored Glenn Close (The Wife).

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Despite the 10% ratio, it still led all contenders with key placements in Director, two Supporting Actress bids (Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz), Original Screenplay, and Editing.

Roma

Alfonso Cuaron was your Best Director in the Mexican drama that was the other picture with 10 nods. It also won Foreign Language Film and Cinematography while contending in Actress (Yalitza Aparicio), Supporting Actress (Marina de Tavira), Original Screenplay, both Sound competitions, and Production Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes and easily. The Netflix property was supposed to be the streamer’s first BP (they’re still waiting) and was favored before that Book upset.

A Star Is Born

Bradley Cooper’s version of the frequently remade melodrama achieved 8 nominations and one win for the director’s duet with costar Lady Gaga “Shallow” in Original Song. Both Cooper and Gaga were up for their acting as was Sam Elliot in Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Mixing, and Cinematography.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but another tough call. Star‘s shine with voters seemed to dim as the season wore on. This is evidenced by it missing directing and editing.

Vice

This is a good time to point out that all 8 BP hopefuls won at least one statue. Adam McKay’s biopic of former Vice President Cheney (played by Christian Bale) took home the Makeup and Hairstyling award. Other noms were for the direction, Bale, Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell), Supporting Actress (Amy Adams), Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No and I really struggled here. Vice landed mentions everywhere it needed to. The so-so critical reaction made it a tad easier to leave it out. Simply put, this could’ve been in over BlacKkKlansman or Bohemian, but I had to make the judgment call.

So that means my 2018 final five is:

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

I’ll have my post for 2019 up soon! The 2009-17 write-ups are here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

Best Picture 2010: The Final Five

Best Picture 2011: The Final Five

Best Picture 2012: The Final Five

Best Picture 2013: The Final Five

Best Picture 2014: The Final Five

Best Picture 2015: The Final Five

Best Picture 2016: The Final Five

Best Picture 2017: The Final Five

Pearl Review

Every place other than home is where our demented dreamer wants to be in Pearl, Ti West’s prequel to X. Whereas the predecessor was set in 1979 and paid loving homage to the grime of 1974’s The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, this basks in the glow of The Wizard of Oz and other Golden Age works. Shot in New Zealand back to back, X and Pearl are vastly different experiences. They do share a setting where unspeakable gore occurs.

They also share Mia Goth. Unlike in X, she inhabits the screen from open to close. You will recall her from X as the elderly tormentor of a porn flick crew shooting on her property (Goth also played a drug addled starlet from the one day shoot that ends prematurely). As just Pearl here, we see her in 1918. The Great War is raging and that’s where her husband Howard is. She’s young, vibrant, and fantasizes of being a starlet herself. Pearl resides at the farm with her no nonsense German speaking mom (Tandi Wright) and sickly father (Matthew Sunderland). Her dreams of becoming a chorus girl are played out in the barn in front of the animals and their little bleating hearts.

We know from X that Pearl’s psychological issues are likely to kick into high gear. West and Goth (who cowrote the screenplay) still manage to take us in unexpected and stimulating directions. When Pearl meets a bohemian projectionist (David Corenswet) working at the local cinema, it arouses her desire to not be in Kansas anymore. **Side note: I don’t believe this is actually set in Kansas, but it could be with all those cornrows.

While Mom vehemently disapproves, Pearl hears of an audition opportunity to join a traveling troupe. We arrive there following family squabbles that lead our title character to see her dance tryout as her only means of escape. X was an ensemble piece. Pearl is a Goth show and she wows. From that aforementioned audition to a dinner table confession with her sister-in-law (Emma Jenkins-Purro, looking as petrified as the audience), this is perhaps the trippiest lead horror performance since Toni Collette’s in fellow A24 fright fest Hereditary. You don’t wanna take your eyes off her, including during the closing credits.

While X and Pearl do indeed share that farmland, I found the latter to be more rewarding overall. The director and lead are having a ball as they inject some darkness into the Technicolor brightness. It usually feels like they are giving the best of what they have.

***1/2 (out of four)

New York Circles Tár

The New York Film Critics Circle have made their selections for the year’s best and that kicks off a flurry of regional awards coming our way in the days and weeks ahead. This particular critics group (as is the case with most) isn’t much of a barometer on who and what will win. It is, however, a decent glimpse of who and what could contend.

Todd Field’s Tár and Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin each earned two honors. The former was named Best Film with Cate Blanchett taking the Actress award. Eight of the last 10 NYFCC victors in Film went on to receive a BP Oscar nomination. Yet none of those movies won the big prize from the Academy. The last one that did was 2011’s The Artist. And that make sense here. Tár appears highly likely to make the BP cut though it isn’t much of a threat to take the gold. Five of the past 10 Actress recipients were nominated with only one winner. Who was that winner? Cate Blanchett for 2013’s Blue Jasmine. She could certainly do so again. This won’t be the only critics branch to name her.

Colin Farrell was Best Actor for Banshees and After Yang. Like Actress, half of the previous ten New York honorees made the Oscar quintet with two winners – Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea). Farrell appears to be locked in a tight three-way race with Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Austin Butler (Elvis). Every precursor like this helps a little. Banshees also won Best Screenplay. That’s another Academy three-way battle in Original Screenplay with Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans.

The supporting fields are a bit more predictive as far as Academy matches. Eight of 10 Supporting Actor NYFCC takers were at the Oscars. That includes four winners in Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), and Mahershala Ali (Moonlight). We could see another match with Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Expect to hear his name a lot.

Supporting Actress, on the contrary, was more of a surprise. Keke Palmer’s work in Nope topped all rivals in a wide open field that’s hard to peg for Oscar prognosticating. 7 of 10 winners here made the big dance including the victorious Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), and Laura Dern (Marriage Story). I’ve yet to have Palmer in my top ten. I’m starting to wonder if she could get in the mix for her memorable performance in the sci-fi horror tale. I should note that NYFCC named Lupita Nyong’o Best Actress for Peele’s Us from 2019 and she came up short with Oscar voters.

The rest of the categories all showcased viable contenders in their respective competitions. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On picked up Animated Feature and I expect it to get love from the critics. Same with Non-Fiction Film and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (I have it ranked first in Oscar’s Documentary Feature). Poland’s EO was a slightly unexpected choice in Foreign Film over Decision to Leave (which I have pegged as the soft frontrunner for the Academy). Finally, Top Gun: Maverick aced Cinematography and it should get an Oscar nod there for the thrilling aerial camerawork.

Keep coming to the blog for all your awards news and I’ll have updated Oscar predictions up this Sunday!

Oscar Predictions: Emancipation

Will Smith rather notoriously won his first Best Actor Oscar last year for King Richard. His victory was not a surprise. Smith’s onstage slap of Chris Rock approximately 30 minutes before he received the gold statue was.

The superstar actor’s career has taken a hit since with some canceled or delayed projects. It has not altered the release of Emancipation. The historical action drama casts Smith as slave Whipped Peter, whose Civil War era photograph has become an iconic image. Antoine Fuqua, best known for shoot-em-ups like Olympus Has Fallen and The Equalizer pics, directs. The supporting cast includes Ben Foster, Charmaine Bingwa, Steven Ogg, Mustafa Shakir, and Timothy Hutton.

Emancipation is out in limited fashion tomorrow prior to a December 9th streaming rollout on Apple TV (they paid a whopping $130 million for the rights). The Rotten Tomatoes score is a mixed 63%.

There is praise for the performances, including Smith. An early consensus is that the action works better than some of the dramatic elements. Bottom line: this doesn’t sound line much of an awards contender whether there had been The Slap or no slap. One exception could be Robert Richardson’s cinematography. He’s a three-time winner for JFK, The Aviator, and Hugo. Richardson won’t get a fourth podium trip, but making the cut isn’t out of the question. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

December 2-4 Box Office Predictions

After a historically weak Thanksgiving frame that left moviegoers hungry for other options, the first weekend of December should be rather quiet at multiplexes as well. The lone wide release is Violent Night with David Harbour as a gun toting Santa. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Violent Night Box Office Prediction

Night, even though I have it falling under $10 million, should slide into the runner-up position behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. The MCU sequel looks to four-peat and should have no trouble doing so. A low to mid 50s drop would put it over $20 million. It’s likely to be #1 for five weekends until Avatar: The Way of Water arrives on December 16th.

After a disastrous opening (more on that below), Strange World should fall to third. With a weak B Cinemascore grade, the Disney animated flop could experience a plummet in the mid to high 50s. Who knows? Maybe even higher.

The four and five spots could be close between the second and third frames of Devotion and The Menu. Both should see dips in the mid 40s.

Here’s how I see the top 5 looking:

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

2. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

3. Strange World

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

4. Devotion

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

5. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

Box Office Results (Thanksgiving Weekend)

The Turkey Day holiday didn’t bring in the masses as the weekend fell under $100 million. That’s despite plenty of new releases for crowds to chew on.

Strangely enough, the biggest winner belonged to a streamer. Netflix doesn’t officially report numbers. They put Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, the acclaimed sequel to 2019’s blockbuster, on just under 700 screens. Word is out that it did approximately $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $13.3 million since the Wednesday start. That per theater average of over $13k is easily the best of the bunch. Onion is scheduled to leave its venues tomorrow before it hits Netflix on December 23rd.

Now back to the movies that do report official tallies. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever easily stayed atop the charts with $45.5 million, besting my $37.9 million prediction in weekend #3. The 17-day total is $367 million.

The story of the holiday was the dismal Strange World performance. The Mouse Factory had a disappointing result over the summer with Lightyear. This made it look like a phenomenon. World took in an embarrassing $12.1 million from Friday to Sunday and $18.8 million in the five-day. I said it would manage $19.3 million and $26.7 million, respectively. Simply put, Disney animated efforts aren’t supposed to do those anemic figures.

I suppose technically Glass Onion was third, so the war saga Devotion was fourth. Despite mostly decent reviews, it was a flop considering the reported $90 million budget. The Friday to Sunday take was $5.9 million with $9 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. I went higher with $7.2 million and $10.7 million.

The Menu rounded out the top five at $5.4 million (I said $6.4 million) to bring the two-week gross to $18 million.

Black Adam was sixth with $3.2 million, on target with my $3.3 million prediction. Total is $162 million.

Steven Spielberg’s awards hopeful The Fabelmans was on 638 screens and was seventh with $2.2 million ($3.1 million for the five-day). That’s under my guesstimates of $2.8 million and $4.1 million. While that’s easily the second best average of the newbies (after Onion), it’s still not too impressive. It will hope to develop legs during awards season.

The cannibalistic romance Bones and All wasn’t a recipe for success with an 8th place showing. The $2.2 million and $3.6 million three and five day earnings couldn’t match my $3.5 and $5.3 million projections.

Ticket to Paradise was ninth with $1.8 million (I went with $2.3 million) as the rom com is up to $65 million.

Fathom Event The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 was 10th as it dove 81% to $1.5 million. I was more giving at $2.4 million. In ten days, it’s made $13 million.

Finally, She Said was 11th after its poor premiere last weekend. With $1.1 million (I said $1.6 million), it’s at a lowly $4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Spoiler Alert

Spoiler Alert is out in limited release December 2nd with a nationwide expansion the following week. It’s based on the memoir of journalist Michael Ausiello as he recounts his boyfriend Kit’s battle with cancer. Jim Parsons plays Michael with Ben Aldridge as Kit. Costars include Sally Field and Bill Irwin. Michael Showalter, maker of The Big Sick (which received an Original Screenplay nod) and The Eyes of Tammy Faye (which won Jessica Chastain her Best Actress Oscar last year) directs.

The first handful of reviews are out and Spoiler currently has a 40% Rotten Tomatoes score. Parsons, of course, is an Emmy and Globe recipient for his small screen role on The Big Bang Theory. Like his other big screen starring role in 2020’s The Boys in the Band, don’t look for this to play to awards voters. And that’s not revealing too much to make that projection. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

If you’d told me in the spring that Puss in Boots: The Last Wish was better suited for an Animated Feature Oscar nomination than Disney’s Lightyear or Strange World, I might’ve questioned your awards prognosticating abilities. With its embargo lifted prior to the December 21st theatrical bow, this appears to be the case.

The DreamWorks Animation sequel is being praised as equal to or better than the 2011 predecessor. You may remember that it’s originally a spin-off from the massive Shrek franchise. Joel Crawford (who last made The Croods: A New Age) directs as Antonio Banderas and Salma Hayek return to voice the title kitty and his love interest. Other performers behind the mic include Harvey Guillén, Florence Pugh, Olivia Colman, Ray Winstone, John Mulaney, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

Early reviews have this at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and that’s beyond the 86% that the first Boots earned (we are still at under 10 write-ups so it could come down). The aforementioned Shrek from 2001 is actually the first movie to win the Academy’s animated prize. In 2004, Shrek 2 was nominated but lost to Disney’s The Incredibles. The third and fourth tales of the jolly green monster didn’t make the cut. However, Puss in Boots was among 2011’s quintet. Rango took the gold.

This is a strange year in the Animated Feature race. Of Disney’s trio of hopefuls, only Turning Red appears safe for inclusion. The frontrunner is Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio from Netflix. The steamer’s Wendell and Wild and My Father’s Dragon could also get in. We have A24’s Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and The Bad Guys (also from DreamWorks). I haven’t had Puss in Boots: The Last Wish in the top 10 of possibilities. After seeing the initial reaction, it definitely will make that jump. When I update my projections on Thursday, it could even enter the high five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Joyland

Despite submitting 10 pictures for consideration (including eight from 2013-20), the nation of Pakistan has yet to receive a nomination in the International Feature Film Oscar race. Could that change with Joyland?

The directorial debut of Saim Sadiq, the family drama won the Jury Prize when it premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in May. It also picked up a nod for Best International Film at the Independent Spirit Awards earlier this week. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.

We have plenty of potential heavy hitters in IFF for 2022 including likely frontrunners All Quiet on the Western Front and Decision to Leave. Pakistan has a non-existent track record of making the eventual cut, but Joyland might be its most promising contender so far. I haven’t listed it in my top five (or even top 10 yet), but I wouldn’t completely discount its viability. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Retrograde

Documentarian Matthew Heineman is no stranger to tackling hot button issues and awards voters have rewarded his features in the past. 2015’s Cartel Land was an Oscar nominee for Documentary Feature. Additional acclaim was bestowed upon 2017’s City of Ghosts and last year’s The First Wave, which took us into a NYC hospital at the height of the COVID epidemic. Heineman’s lone fictional work was 2018’s A Private War, in which Rosamund Pike nabbed a Golden Globe Best Actress nod in the Drama competition.

His latest is the Nat Geo produced Retrograde, recounting America’s final nine months in the Afghanistan War. It’s out already on an awards qualifying run prior to a December 11th Hulu bow. Initial reviews are typical for the filmmaker at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Both Ghosts and Wave didn’t make the Academy’s cut. If Retrograde can manage to make the shortlist, it could certainly vie for one of the five spots. Based on recent history, I’m not yet comfortable slotting it there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Violent Night Box Office Prediction

If Mel Gibson in 2020’s Fatman didn’t satiate your desire to see Kris Kringle toting semiautomatic weapons, we’ve got Violent Night sliding into theaters on December 2nd. David Harbour of Stranger Things fame is Santa in the satiric action pic from director Tommy Wirkola. Supporting players include John Leguizamo (currently appearing in The Menu), Cam Gigandet, Alex Hassell, Alexis Louder, and Beverly D’Angelo (already a holiday silver screen staple thanks to Christmas Vacation).

Universal is hoping audiences want a little comedic savagery in their Yuletide viewing plans. Harbour hasn’t had a big screen breakout. In fact, it’s quite the opposite as 2019’s Hellboy was a dud (he did turn up in last year’s MCU blockbuster Black Widow).

The best case scenario would be a premiere approaching 2015’s Krampus, which rolled out on the same December weekend. It made just over $16 million and eventually topped out at $42 million domestically. I don’t anticipate that kind of showing for Violent Night. There’s a chance it won’t even reach double digits. I’ll put it a hair under.

Violent Night opening weekend prediction: $9.4 million