The 1974 comedy Blazing Saddles rustled up three Oscar nominations and nearly 50 years later, Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank is loosely based on the Mel Brooks classic. Paramount and Nickelodeon are hoping family audiences turn out for the martial arts animated tale that is co-directed by Rob Minkoff (who helmed 1994’s The Lion King) and Mark Koetsier.
Box office success seems unlikely. Reviews are so-so with a current 65% Rotten Tomatoes score. They’re not sharp enough for the Academy to pay much attention. As far as animated fare hitting theaters widely tomorrow, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On is the one that seems destined for awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
With an eye popping budget of $200 million (a reported record for Netflix), spy thriller The Gray Man begins streaming tomorrow. Anthony and Joe Russo (no strangers to gargantuan price tags thanks to Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame) direct Ryan Gosling and Chris Evans. Costars include Ana de Armas, Jessica Henwick, Rege-Jean Page, Wagner Moura, Julia Butters, Dhanush, Alfre Woodard, and Billy Bob Thornton.
The high priced endeavor is garnering mixed reviews with the positive ones not exactly over the moon. Its Rotten Tomatoes score is 49%. Unlike the Russo’s MCU extravaganzas, the visual effects here shouldn’t attract the attention of Academy voters. Same goes for Sound or anything else. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (07/21): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my Nope prediction slightly from $49.2M to $53.2M
Five years after his first feature Get Out was a critical and box office phenomenon, Universal is hoping audiences say yep to Jordan Peele’s Nope on July 22nd. The plot for the sci-fi horror tale is pretty successfully being kept under wraps. Based on the footage, it appears to involve cowboys and aliens. Daniel Kaluuya (who rose to stardom in Get Out) headlines alongside Keke Palmer, Steven Yeun, Brandon Perea, and Michael Wincott.
In the spring of 2017, Peele’s debut rode a wave of buzz to a $33 million opening and eventually legged out to $176 million domestically. His 2019 follow-up Us was breathlessly awaited based on the Out appreciation. It got off to a $71 million start. However, it was not nearly as universally beloved by moviegoers. Us‘s legs were less sturdy and it actually grossed $1 million less than Out at $175 million.
The trailers and TV spots for Nope have keyed in on the Peele participation. That strategy worked for Us (especially the opening). Will it matter less this time around? Probably. Us had the advantage of following its predecessor by only two years. We’ve waited almost three and a half years for Peele’s third genre excursion.
As I write this post, we have yet to see reviews. That could cause my initial projection to rise or fall. I am rather confident that Nope won’t reach Us levels as far as the debut weekend. Estimates have this generating between $40-$60 million and that seems right. At press time, I’m thinking the $50 million mark seems doable. I’ll put it just a touch under with the possibility of revision possible.
Delia Owens had a massive bestseller released in 2018 with Where the Crawdads Sing and the North Carolina set mystery’s film adaptation is out on Friday. Directed by Olivia Newman, the cast of mostly relative unknowns includes Daisy Edgar-Jones, Taylor John Smith, and Harris Dickinson.
The review embargo is lifted and critical reaction is mixed at best. With a 38% Rotten Tomatoes rating, it’s safe to assume awards voters will ignore it… with one possible exception.
A big fan of the source material, superstar Taylor Swift composed the track “Carolina” for the soundtrack. If the Academy nominates it in Best Original Song, that practically guarantees Oscar night performances from Swift and Lady Gaga (whose Top Gun: Maverick ballad “Hold My Hand” should be a no brainer for the final five). Gaga’s chances are considerably stronger, but it could be tempting to bring that double star power to the evening’s festivities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sporting a 92% Rotten Tomatoes rating, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris lands in theaters this Friday and Focus Features is hoping for a midsize hit. Based on a 1958 novel by Paul Gallico, Lesley Manville stars a widowed housekeeper who treks to the title city to obtain a Dior dress.
The talented Ms. Manville is no stranger to pictures covering the fashion world. In 2017, she secured an Oscar nod alongside Daniel Day-Lewis in Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread. While the reviews are complimentary, Paris is highly unlikely to compete for major above the line categories… with the possible exception of Actress. While I wouldn’t count on it, if the Best Actress derby doesn’t produce many surefire contenders in the coming months, Manville could be a factor. I would, however, say it’s far more feasible that she gets a nod at the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy competition. BAFTA recognition is also doable.
Where the picture stands the strongest chance is in Costume Design since that’s a significant focus of the storyline. That category should have its share of upcoming hopefuls – Babylon and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever immediately come to mind. Don’t be surprised if Paris is in that mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A trio of new titles populate the mid-July box office though Thor is unlikely to be dethroned in his second frame. We have rural drama Where the Crawdads Sing (based on the bestseller), animated martial arts family comedy Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank, and the 1950s set dramedy Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Despite solid reviews thus far, Paris won’t reach the top five and top ten could even be tricky. Part of that is due to its smallish output on roughly 900 screens. My estimate is $2.3 million.
The wild card could be Crawdads. The novel is recent (it was the top selling book of 2019) and has its ardent fans. A debut of over $20 million is possible and it could reach the runner-up position. I’m putting it a bit under that and that should mean third place.
As for Paws, my projection of just over $10 million would put it in a dead heat with Top Gun: Maverick in its 8th weekend. If anything, I could see my guesstimate for the animated pic being revised down.
Thor: Love and Thunder hammered out the third largest opening of 2022 (more on that below). Yet the B+ Cinemascore average (low for the MCU) could mean a hefty sophomore dip. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness had the same grade and tumbled 67%. A low mid 60s drop for the Asgardian king should mean a $50-55 million range.
Minions: The Rise of Gru should remain in second (unless Crawdads impresses) with a third weekend take of between $20-25 million.
Here’s how I envision the top five:
1. Thor: Love and Thunder
Predicted Gross: $50.2 million
2. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $23.1 million
3. Where the Crawdads Sing
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
5. Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
Box Office Results (July 8-10)
Thor: Love and Thunder easily set a personal best among the four Chris Hemsworth led pics with $144.1 million, besting predecessor Ragnarok by over $20 million. While a rock solid start, it’s on the lower end of expectations and I said $155.7 million. Out of the 29 MCU blockbusters, it ranks 12th as far as beginnings.
Minions: The Rise of Gru slipped to second with $46.1 million, just shy of my $48.8 million prediction. The Illumination smash is up to $210 million already.
Top Gun: Maverick was third with $15.5 million and I was more generous with $18.5 million. Tom Cruise’s phenomenon is flying high with $597 million.
Elvis was fourth with $11.1 million (I said $11.6 million) as the biopic has taken in a sturdy $91 million.
Jurassic World: Dominion rounded out the top five with $8.5 million. I went with $9.1 million. Total is $350 million.
Adapted from the last novel ever written by Jane Austen, Persuasion streams on Netflix beginning July 15th. British theater vet Carrie Cracknell makes her directorial debut with Dakota Johnson headlining the cast. Costars include Cosmo Jarvis, Nikki Amuka-Bird, Richard E. Grant, and Henry Golding.
While we’ve seen some Austen renderings attract Oscar attention such as Sense and Sensibility and Pride & Prejudice, don’t expect voters to be persuaded here. The pic is generating lackluster reviews and it currently stands at just 32% on Rotten Tomatoes.
For its star, there could be a silver lining as her supporting turn in Cha Cha Real Smooth could be recognized in Supporting Actress. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Focus Features is hoping that it will be fashionable to check out Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris when it debuts on July 15th. They’re certainly hoping it won’t be a dud. Based on a late 1950s novel by Paul Gallico once adapted into an early 90s TV movie starring Angela Lansbury, Anthony Fabian directs with Phantom Thread Oscar nominee Lesley Manville in the title role. Costars include Isabelle Huppert, Lambert Wilson, Alba Baptista, Lucas Bravo, and Jason Isaacs.
Paris is being unveiled on approximately 900 screens so that will certainly limit the potential. The distributor is banking on a female audience to turn out. That could be a challenge considering Where the Crawdads Sing opens the same day and will be competing for eyeballs.
Its best hope is siphoning off some older moviegoers. With the low theater count, a gross of over $5 million would be pretty impressive. I don’t think it gets there. It might be lucky to reach half of that.
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
For my Where the Crawdads Sing prediction, click here:
After a brief theatrical run last month, the animated adventure tale The Sea Beast began its Netflix streaming run today. Chris Williams, a Disney vet who co-directed Big Hero 6 and Moana, helms the project. Actors behind the voices include Karl Urban, Zaris-Angel Hator, Jared Harris, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, and Dan Stevens.
Reviews for the monstrous tale are quite positive with a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score. Its potential inclusion could hinge on whether Netflix mounts a major campaign. In the animation field, they may throw all their chips behind Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (due in December).
The critical reaction is a bonus for Beast. The question is whether it’s still fresh in voters minds a few months from now and if Netflix is reminding them of it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank from Paramount and Nickelodeon hopes to bite into the family audience market when it opens July 15th. The animated martial arts comedy takes its inspiration from the classic 1974 Western spoof Blazing Saddles. Rob Minkoff (a former Disney vet who co-directed 1994’s The Lion King) helms along with Mark Koetsier. The voice cast includes Michael Cera, Ricky Gervais, Michelle Yeoh, Samuel L. Jackson, George Takei, Aasif Mandvi, Djimon Hounsou, Gabriel Iglesias, and Mr. Mel Brooks himself.
Originally titled Blazing Samurai, Legend arrives two weeks after Illumination’s massive Minions: The Rise of Gru and two weeks before DC League of Super-Pets. This isn’t based on known IP and I suspect it may get lost in the summer shuffle.
Even lower tier animated offerings can over perform, but I’m putting this barely over double digits for a quiet start.
Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million
For my Where the Crawdads Sing prediction, click here:
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