The title Halftime refers to Jennifer Lopez’s joint Super Bowl extravaganza with Shakira in 2020 (at a time when we were just beginning to hear the term coronavirus). The documentary from filmmaker Amanda Micheli has opened this year’s Tribeca Film Festival. While some of its focus lies with that performance, it also takes us through Lopez’s Oscar campaign for Supporting Actress in Hustlers. As you may recall, she was a frontrunner for a nod that never came to fruition.
Perhaps the Academy will reward this after the general feeling that she was snubbed three years ago. Halftime may stand at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes based on a handful of reviews, but they’re not raves. Premiering on Netflix on June 14th, I doubt this will be a threat to make the final five in Documentary Feature. And, this time around, Lopez’s exclusion will not be a surprise. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
When it comes to the nearly three decades old Jurassic franchise, only the first two (the ones directed by Steven Spielberg) have attracted Oscar attention. The 1993 classic received three nods for Sound Mixing, Sound Editing (those races have since combined), and Visual Effects. It won all three. The 1997 follow-up The Lost World: Jurassic Park managed a Visual Effects mention but lost to Titanic.
The dinosaurs have failed to make Academy ballots for 2001’s Jurassic Park III and the initial entries in the current trilogy – 2015’s Jurassic World and 2018’s Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.
Dominion is the closing chapter that reunites prominent cast members from both trilogies. It’s out Friday and the review embargo is extinct. The result? Only a 40% Rotten Tomatoes which serves as a series worst (predecessor Kingdom previously had the low point at 47%).
So while those creatures might still look cool, I don’t see any chance of a Visual Effects nomination or any others. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Director Tom Gormican and his cowriter Kevin Etten’s reverence for Nicolas Cage is on full display in The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. So is their affection for the kind of action packed and occasionally aimless buddy comedies that Cage might’ve starred in 30 years ago without all the meta sprinklings. Oh, and there’s also a deep reservoir of digging Paddington 2.
Playing a fictionalized version of himself (he might even be more normal in this), Nicolas Cage is smarting from the loss of a movie role when he decides to give up acting. He’s also estranged from his 16-year-old daughter (Lily Sheen) and ex-wife (Sharon Horgan) – or is at least always making everything about himself. Facing financial woes as described by his agent (Neil Patrick Harris), he accepts a million dollar payday to jet to the Spanish Mediterranean. The assignment: hang out with billionaire Javi (Pedro Pascal), who may also be the head of a crime syndicate. His host is a huge fan of the actor and this allows for references to obvious titles like The Rock, Con Air, Face/Off and National Treasure. Most amusingly, the 1994 Secret Service romp Guarding Tess costarring Shirley MacLaine is given its share of exposure.
CIA agents Tiffany Haddish and Ike Barinholtz (two funny people given nothing funny to do) are convinced that Javi has kidnapped the daughter of a politician. His guest of honor is recruited with breaking her out. For much of the running time, Talent coasts on just that of Cage and Pascal. Their chemistry clicks as they start plotting their own screenplay which this often mirrors.
Unlike, say, the brilliant Being John Malkovich – Gormicon’s invention feels like more like a novelty item. Yet it is a frequently witty one mixed with a surprising amount of sincerity. In fact, I found myself wanting it to dig a bit deeper at times. The screenplay attempts to say something about its two protagonists always being forced to act like someone they’re not before it gets distracted by the next reference (The Bees!). In Cage’s massive filmography filled with triumphs, turkeys and Tess‘s, there’s an enjoyable enough catalogue to sift through.
Blogger’s Note (06/16): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my Lightyear estimate down again – from $95.5M to $85.5M
Blogger’s Note (06/15): Revising my estimate down from $101.8M to $95.5M
Disney-Pixar is banking that the buzz for Lightyear will propel it to a nine figure opening orbit on June 17th. Serving as an origin story for one half of the beloved Toy Story duo, Angus MacLane makes his feature-length directorial debut. Captain America himself Chris Evans takes over vocal duties as the title character, replacing Tim Allen (who was heard in the four TS blockbusters). Additional actors providing the sounds are Keke Palmer, Peter Sohn, James Brolin, Taika Waititi, Uzo Aduba, and Isiah Whitlock, Jr.
The Mouse Factory is moving onward with theatrical only outputs for its Pixar brand after Soul, Luca, and Turning Red all hit the streaming circuit on Disney+. The last big screen studio offering was over two years ago with… Onward.
For over a quarter century, the Toy Story franchise has been a gold mine. In 2010, part 3 premiered with $110 million and eventually earned $415 million domestically. The fourth entry in 2019 built upon that with respective numbers of $120 million and $434 million. They also both took home the Best Animated Feature Oscar.
Lightyear may not quite reach those stratospheric heights since it’s a spin-off, but I don’t think it’ll come in with a whole lot less. I do believe a launch of just under $100 million is feasible.
Lightyear opening weekend prediction: $85.5 million
My first Oscar predictions in the six major categories for the month of June sees Top Gun: Maverick rising 3 spots to #17 in the BP derby. My ten predicted nominees remain the same as do the five estimated individuals in Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. There are changes in Actress with Cate Blanchett (Tar) in my five over Danielle Deadwyler (Till) and in Supporting Actress with Hong Chau (The Whale) being elevated over Vanessa Kirby in The Son. You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Son (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. She Said (PR: 9)
9. The Whale (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Rustin (PR: 11) (E)
12. Broker (PR: 12) (E)
13. Poor Things (PR: 18) (+5)
14. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)
15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Tar (PR: 24) (+8)
17. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Thirteen Lives (PR: 16) (-3)
20. White Noise (PR: 15) (-5)
21. Elvis (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Next Goal Wins (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Aftersun (PR: 25( +2)
24. Till (PR: 22) (-2)
25. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
Universal is looking for the dinosaurs to rule the box office landscape for the sixth time with Jurassic World: Dominion. It’s the only new wide release and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Dominion is the third feature in the second Jurassic trilogy and the numbers could be assisted by melding cast members from the original trilogy with the current one. I’m projecting it’ll improve on the opening weekend of predecessor Fallen Kingdom, but not approach the $200M+ debut of Jurassic World. That said – I have a strange feeling it might underperform so check back to see if my projection shifts later this week.
Top Gun: Maverick will be the runner-up after two incredible weeks on top including an astonishing sophomore hold (more on that below). It had no competition this past weekend and the dinos should eat into its grosses. Even with Dominion around, it still may only drop in the 40-45% range… maybe even less.
The rest of the top five should be populated by holdovers Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, The Bad Guys, and The Bob’s Burgers Movie.
Here’s how I see it:
1. Jurassic World: Dominion
Predicted Gross: $155.3 million
2. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $58.8 million
3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
4. The Bad Guys
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
5. The Bob’s Burgers Movie
Predicted Gross: $2.2 million
Box Office Results (June 3-5)
In a turn of events that was even more impressive than its Memorial Day weekend rollout, Top Gun: Maverick is officially a phenomenon as it dropped only 29%. That means a #1 frame of $90 million – towering over my $67.5 million projection. The number is the 8th largest sophomore output of all time. For perspective – it’s $6 million higher than Spider-Man: No Way Home and just $13 million below what The Avengers made during the same weekend. It’s the best hold we’ve ever witnessed for a picture that debuted above $100 million. The ten-day tally is $295 million and the sky looks to be the limit.
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness remained in second with $9.1 million. My guess? $9.1 million! The MCU behemoth is up to $388 million.
The Bob’s Burgers Movie fell a steep 63% in its second serving with $4.6 million, a bit under my $5.3 million prediction. Total is $22 million.
The Bad Guys took fourth with $3.3 million (I said $3.1 million) as it inches close to the century mark with $87 million.
Downton Abbey: A New Era rounded out the top five at $3.1 million, in line with my $3.2 million estimate for $35 million overall.
Sun drenched SoCal nostalgia permeates every land, air, and beach surface of Top Gun: Maverick and it’s a pleasure to bask in the glow. Many a franchise lately has attempted to tap into our sentimentality and many have failed. 36 years after the original, Maverick elevates what preceded it while making us misty about those very events from the mid 80s. Perhaps most thrilling is watching a movie star firmly in control of what’s made him a headliner for five decades.
Captain Pete Mitchell aka Maverick (Tom Cruise) has refused upward promotion in the Navy while spending the bulk of his working hours skyward as a test pilot. The romance that took his breath away with Kelly McGillis is seemingly long dormant. His friendship with Iceman (Val Kilmer), now a decorated Admiral, saves his tail after a work mishap. Instead of washing out, he’s sent back to San Diego as a TOPGUN teacher. Against the wishes of a Vice Admiral who goes by Cyclone (Jon Hamm), Maverick is tasked with instructing a new generation of pilots.
Their mission (and they’re forced to accept it) is to destroy an unnamed enemy nation’s uranium enrichment plant. It is (ahem) a potentially impossible mission and Maverick’s tutelage is complicated by one of the students. Rooster (Miles Teller) is the son of the late Goose (Anthony Edwards) from the original. You may recall that he perished in the arms of the leading man and therefore eliminated his ability to talk to anyone except for metaphorically.
While the dynamic between the teacher and his pupil is the pic’s emotional through line, there’s subplots aplenty. This includes Maverick’s courtship of Penny (Jennifer Connelly), who checks the boxes of being an ex-flame, single mother, and bar owner where standards from the 1960s can be drunkenly belted out. We also get a truly emotional sequence with Cruise and Kilmer made more touching by the latter’s real world health challenges. And, of course, there’s a whole new crop of pilots. Most memorable, by far, is the cocky Hangman (Glen Powell). You’ll leave the theater convinced Powell is going to become a major headliner himself.
Then there’s the fact that technology has soared by leaps and bounds since the first one. To put it simply – the aerial battles in the third act are awesome and I would suggest an IMAX venue to take it in. As mentioned, many fan service attempts in recent times have been serviceable at best or less. Top Gun: Maverick, with its megawatt star, is more than that. It earns its stripes.
Coasting on the adequate chemistry of its two leads, The Lost City might stick with you for about as long as the romance paperbacks penned by Sandra Bullock’s character. In other words – not for long but you won’t feel guilty while it lasts. This isn’t a remake of 1984’s Romancing the Stone though it certainly feels thematically similar.
Like Kathleen Turner’s character in that action comedy from nearly four decades ago, Loretta Sage (Bullock) writes steamy love stories while her own existence is a lonely one. She’s recently widowed from her archaeologist husband whose work influenced her novels. After prodding from her determined publisher Beth (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), Loretta reluctantly embarks on a book tour alongside Alan (Channing Tatum). He’s the cover model for her bibliography (think Fabio) and he’s known as Dash. His fame eclipses the author and she’s prepared to kill him off and retire to her bathtub with a glass of Chardonnay.
The plan hits a snag when kooky billionaire Abigail Fairfax (Daniel Radcliffe) snags Loretta. He’s convinced she can decipher a code to a lost treasure – make that Lost City – mentioned in one of her books. The locale is a remote one in The Atlantic so Alan pursues her along with the mysterious man of action Jack Trainer (Brad Pitt). Think of him as a bit like Michael Douglas’s lead in Romancing without actually being the lead.
Decked out in a glittery purple onesie that she wouldn’t dare don had she known kidnapping would be involved, what you expect is what you get from Bullock. Same goes for Tatum. Fortunately for us, they’re both better than serviceable. The supporting players elevate the material at times, especially Radcliffe playing against type and Randolph (so good in Dolemite Is My Name) providing solid comic relief.
Directed by brothers Adam and Aaron Nee, The Lost City often feels built from the spare parts of superior vehicles. It never crashes and burns due to the talent involved. Both Loretta and Alan have moments searching for the right words as their plot mandated courtship blossoms. I don’t have to search too hard – this is passable.
S.S. Rajamouli’s three-hour action epic RRR took in $13 million this spring domestically, but was a smash in its native country of India. Starring N.T. Rama Rao Jr., Ram Charan, Ajay Devgn, Alia Bhatt, Ray Stevenson, and Alison Doody, it’s picked up plenty of new viewers now that it’s available for streaming on Netflix.
With an 88% score on Rotten Tomatoes, it will be interesting to see if India mounts a spirited campaign for International Feature Film. I imagine they will. While RRR (that’s Rise Roar Revolt by the way) may not be your typical fare in the category (and there’s potential heavy hitters on the way like Broker and Bardo), it could have enough admirers to at least make the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Back in 2015, Mark Rylance scored an upset Supporting Actor Oscar victory over Sylvester Stallone (Creed) for his work in Steven Spielberg’s Bridge of Spies. He hasn’t made it back to the dance since, but he’s got two performances in 2022 generating praise.
The first was the spring’s spy drama The Outfit and the latest is The Phantom of the Open. The biographical comedic drama casts Rylance as Maurice Flitcroft, a golfer of questionable abilities who still managed to play the PGA Tour in the 1970s. Craig Roberts directs with a supporting cast including Sally Hawkins and Rhys Ifans.
Critics are mostly being kind and it holds a 91% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, I’m skeptical this gets enough stateside exposure to become Rylance’s second nod. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised if his performance here or in The Outfit lands him a BAFTA nomination. Another possibility could be making the cut for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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