Blogger’s Note (04/04): On the eve of its premiere, my estimate has changed from $59.5 million to $52.5 million
The DC Extended Universe adds another cinematic hero to its stable with the release of Shazam! next weekend. The tale of a teenager who morphs into a superhero was first introduced in comic book pages nearly 80 years ago. David F. Sandberg directs with Zachary Levi as the title character and Asher Angel as his younger self. Costars include Mark Strong, Jack Dylan Grazer, Djimon Hounsou, and Grace Fulton.
Said to heartfelt and funny, Shazam! is already a winner with critics and sporting a 92% Rotten Tomatoes score. DC, while not quite up to MCU levels, has been hitting its stride lately with mega performers like WonderWoman and Aquaman. There were previews of this that surprisingly managed to outdo what Jason Momoa’s creation did late last year. However, that was during the hustle and bustle of the holiday season.
The range expected is $40-$60 million. I have a hunch its good word of mouth will propel it to the upper reaches of those expectations. It’s feasible the range could be surpassed, but I’ll say high 50s.
Disney’s live-action version of their 1941 classic Dumbo arrives in theaters on Friday and the review embargo was lifted today. Tim Burton’s take on the flying elephant is the first of four Mouse Factory updates on their animated tales hitting screens in 2019.
The advance word out is quite mixed with a Rotten Tomatoes score of just 51%. No one seriously expected this would contend for Best Picture, but previous Disney updates in recent years have fared well with Oscar voters with technical nods.
Burton’s own AliceinWonderland in 2010 won Best Art Direction (now Production Design) and Costume Design and landed a nomination in Visual Effects. Costume Design nods were received by Maleficent in 2014 and by Cinderella the following year. In 2016, TheJungleBook emerged victorious in Visual Effects. BeautyandtheBeast nabbed nods for Production and Costume Design.
That’s a solid track record. Where’s that leave Dumbo? Tough to say at this juncture. Even the negative skewing reviews have praised the visuals. Yet there will be a lot of competition and that includes the other three live-action updates arriving later: Aladdin, TheLionKing, and Maleficent: MistressofEvil. Even more potentially serious competitors include Avengers: Endgame and the next StarWars.
Costume Design and Production Design remain more realistic possibilities. Bottom line: Dumbo could continue the recent tradition of this sub genre getting down the line category attention, but competition will be key. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Blogger’s Note (03/27): My Dumbo prediction has dropped from $65.6 million to $55.6 million.
After Us rocked the box office this past weekend, a quartet of newcomers open nationwide on Friday: Tim Burton’s live action rendering of Disney’s 1941 animated classic Dumbo, true life action thriller HotelMumbai, Pure Flix pro-life drama Unplanned, and Matthew McConaughey stoner comedy TheBeachBum. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Dumbo should have little trouble flying into the winners circle. I have it slated for a mid 60s opening. That’s far from what the Mouse Factory achieved with the non drawn versions of BeautyandtheBeast and TheJungleBook and more in line with 2015’s Cinderella.
The remainder of the premieres may all have trouble reaching the top five. Mumbai could fare the best after a decent limited release start, even though it’s on less screens than Unplanned or TheBeachBum. I have those titles hitting just $2.6 million and $1.6 million, respectively. I’m a bit more optimistic with Mumbai, putting it at $3.4 million.
A big question this weekend is how far Us will drop after its fantastic performance out of the gate (more on that below). It stands to reason that this will be more front loaded than Jordan Peele’s GetOut, which rode a wave of water cooler chatter. I foresee a dip in the mid to possibly high 40s range.
CaptainMarvel, FiveFeetApart, and WonderPark could populate the rest of the high-five, assuming none of the new trio not named Dumbo manages to exceed expectations.
Here’s my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Dumbo
Predicted Gross: $55.6 million
2. Us
Predicted Gross: $38.4 million
3. CaptainMarvel
Predicted Gross: $20.2 million
4. FiveFeetApart
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
5. WonderPark
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
BoxOfficeResults (March22–24)
As mentioned, acclaimed horror flick Us dominated the charts and proved that its maker Jordan Peele is a valuable commodity at the moment. Taking in $71.1 million (well past my $58.8 million projection), Us is the largest live action feature based on original material since 2009’s Avatar. It doubled the $33 million brought in by Peele’s breakout GetOut. With a meager $20 million budget, it’s safe to assume the champagne bottles are popping over at Universal.
CaptainMarvel dropped to second after two weeks on top with $34.2 million, just under my $36.4 million estimate. The MCU effort has amassed $320 million thus far.
WonderPark was third with $8.7 million. I was a little higher at $10.4 million. The two-week tally is $29 million.
FiveFeetApart was close behind in fourth with $8.5 million (I said $7.7 million) and $26 million overall. I expect Park and Feet to flip positions this weekend.
HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld rounded out the top five with $6.5 million compared to my $6.1 million prediction. Its total is $145 million.
The true life action thriller HotelMumbai expands nationwide this weekend after its limited engagement over this past one. Recounting the 2008 Taj Mahal Palace Hotel terror attacks in India, the film marks the directorial debut of Anthony Maras. Dev Patel and Armie Hammer headline with costars including Anupam Kher and Jason Isaacs.
Mumbai was originally screened at the Toronto Film Festival last fall to mostly positive reviews. It stands at 77% on Rotten Tomatoes. Over the weekend, it managed a per theater average of over $20,000 on four screens.
That’s pretty decent, but that average should dip significantly as it’s scheduled to hit about 800 this weekend. The number is lower than other new wide releases like Unplanned and TheBeachBum. However, Mumbai could top the grosses of those titles – making it the biggest earning newcomer that isn’t named Dumbo.
HotelMumbai opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million
Director Harmony Korine brings his drug fueled comedic sensibilities to the screen next weekend with the release of TheBeachBum. The Kids and SpringBreakers maker’s latest casts Matthew McConaughey as a stoner poet named Moondog. The supporting cast includes Isla Fisher, Snoop Dogg, Jonah Hill, Zac Efron, and Martin Lawrence.
There’s a niche market for Korine’s product and more solid reviews may have assisted. However, when Bum debuted at the South by Southwest Festival, it did so to mixed reaction. It currently has a 55% Rotten Tomatoes score.
It was only recently announced that this is being rolled out in wide fashion on Friday. A screen count could change my estimate, but as of now I’ll say it’ll be lucky to reach $2 million.
TheBeachBum opening weekend prediction: $1.6 million
The Pure Flix drama Unplanned hits approximately 1000 theaters this Friday. Based on a true story, the film is focused on Planned Parenthood employee Abby Johnson, who becomes a pro-life advocate. Ashley Bratcher plays the lead role with God’sNotDead writers Chuck Konzelman and Cary Solomon directing.
This studio that specializes in faith-based efforts has seen its material underperform lately. Titles like Unbroken: PathtoRedemption, LittleWomen, and Indivisible have all fallen under projections in the past couple of years. Unplanned has received some publicity lately due to its R rating (a first for Pure Flix), with some outlets believing that designation is excessive.
Even with that extra attention, I’ll estimate this debuts in the $2-$3 million range.
Unplanned opening weekend prediction: $2.6 million
The DC Extended Universe branches out to lesser known source material on April 5 with the release of Shazam! The superhero tale puts a teenage boy in the body of an adult crime fighter with David F. Sandberg (Annabelle: Creation) directing and Zachary Levi in the title role.
The character has been around since 1940 and this big screen treatment is receiving praise based on its early screenings. Critics are calling this sweet and funny and continuing in the more lighthearted vein that DC has employed lately with hits like WonderWoman and Aquaman.
With a 93% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, could Shazam! resonate with Oscar voters? It’s doubtful. If the aforementioned DC efforts couldn’t land a single nod, it’s tough to envision any for this.
Bottom line: Shazam! should be another box office success for the revitalized franchise, but don’t expect awards chatter to follow. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
In the 21st century cinematic universe, the famed web slinger has been reinvented on a number of occasions – from Tobey Maguire to Andrew Garfield to Tom Holland. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse is the first one that feels truly inventive. Anyone thinking this animated experience would be a sub par spin-off or money grab will find themselves sorely mistaken. This iteration of the iconic hero has a lot of heart, plenty of action, and a warped sense of humor that elicits genuine laughs. Directors Bob Perischetti, Peter Ramsey, and Rodney Rothman (who co-wrote the screenplay along with Phil Lord) have drawn up what is probably the most satisfying Spidey pic on its own terms.
The picture posits the theory that our title character does his Spidey thing in multiple dimensions and in different forms than just Peter Parker. These characters are familiar to fans of the Marvel Comics and even includes Spider-Ham, representing the hero in pig form. He’s here and he’s fabulous. Our primary Spidey here is Miles (voiced by Shameik Moore), a Brooklyn teen with a police officer father and a potentially shady uncle that he admires. Miles attends a prep school and feels lost in his adolescence just like Peter Parker did. He’s a fan of Spider-Man, who is currently fighting Big Apple crime in the manner we’re accustomed to. That’s until bad guy Kingpin (Liev Schrieber) knocks him off, but not before Miles get a radioactive bite that gives him the well-known powers.
What follows is a visually splendid adventure where it’s clear that the makers really adore the character. At the same time, they take him in unforeseen directions that perhaps only the animated format could allow. Miles’s Spidey teams with an aging and out of shape Peter Parker (Jake Johnson) from a different “verse”, along with Spider-Woman (Hailee Steinfeld) and the aforementioned Ham version. There’s others, but part of the fun is watching them appear without me spoiling it.
Plenty of superhero movies take themselves quite seriously and many have succeeded with that tone. GuardiansoftheGalaxy and Deadpool introduced a different dynamic that is evident here. Yet Spider–Verse is not derivative. It manages to take one of the most repeated story arcs in the genre and cleverly turn it on its head. I enjoyed it immensely. The possibilities are many for this particular universe to continue and I’m up for it.
Blogger’s Note (03/27): My Dumbo prediction has dropped from $65.6 million to $55.6 million.
With Tim Burton at the helm, Disney’s live-action rendering of Dumbo flies into theaters next weekend. The elephant tale (based on the Mouse Factory’s 1941 animated feature) is headlined by Colin Farrell, Michael Keaton, Danny DeVito, Eva Green, Alan Arkin, and plenty of CG effects.
This is the first live-action remake from the studio in two years, following up on the monstrous success that was BeautyandtheBeast. That lapse in their sub genre won’t apply to 2019 as there’s three more on the way – Aladdin in May, TheLionKing in July, and Maleficent: MistressofEvil this October.
It’s also not Burton’s first foray remaking Disney classics. 2010’s AliceinWonderland was a huge hit that grossed $116 million for its start. When it comes to Beauty, Aladdin, and LionKing, they have the advantage of being based on 90s efforts as opposed to a title released 50 years prior.
Expectations for Dumbo aren’t quite as lofty and they’re in the $60-$70 million premiere range. That sound about right and I’ll put it right in the middle of those numbers, similar to what Cinderella achieved in 2015.
This weekend at the box office, it’s all about Us – as in Jordan Peele’s critically acclaimed and eagerly awaited follow-up to his breakthrough hit GetOut. It’s the only new wide release before us and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
I have the horror pic slated for a mid to high 50s debut and that should easily nab it the top spot, knocking CaptainMarvel off after two weeks in first. The rest of the top five should be populated by holdovers WonderPark and FiveFeetApart, which both exceeded expectations in their premieres, as well as HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Us
Predicted Gross: $56.8 million
2. CaptainMarvel
Predicted Gross: $36.4 million
3. WonderPark
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million
4. FiveFeetApart
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
5. HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
BoxOfficeResults (March15–17)
CaptainMarvel easily held onto first in its sophomore frame with $67.9 million, a touch below my $71.3 million projection. The Marvel blockbuster has amassed $264 million in its first ten days of release.
Animated WonderPark placed second with $15.8 million, well beyond my $10.3 million prediction. Considering its reported $100 million budget, that’s still nothing spectacular, but it is definitely on the highest end of estimates.
Romantic drama FiveFeetApart was third with $13.1 million, ahead of my $10.7 million forecast. Unlike WonderPark, the price tag here was a measly $7 million and it nearly doubled that out of the gate.
HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld was fourth with $9.2 million (I said $9.4 million) for $135 million overall.
I didn’t give Mr. Perry enough credit as AMadeaFamilyFuneral rounded out the top five with $7.8 million compared to my $5.6 million take. The three-week tally is $58 million.
Spanish comedy sequel NoManchesFrida2 was sixth, opening with $3.8 million on under 500 screens. I was close at $3.4 million.
In seventh, the barely publicized alien invasion thriller CaptiveState took in just $3.1 million (I said $2.8 million).
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