Month: August 2019

Early 2019 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

And away we go with my very early initial Oscar predictions for the films of 2019! As has become tradition on this here blog, I make my first projections in the six top races (the acting categories, Director, Picture) in late August. This is right on the cusp of festival season (Toronto, Venice, Telluride, New York) when dozens of hopefuls will screen beginning Thursday and into the next several weeks. Expect a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts coming your way!

At that time, the outlook will become considerably clearer when it comes to real deal contenders and pretenders. Beginning Thursday and through October, I will have a weekly column estimating my top 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 entries in the five other races. They will be ranked unlike these first posts. Starting in November, that will dwindle down to 15 Pictures and top 10 predictions in all other categories weekly.

There is no doubt that these lists will fluctuate significantly as the year progresses. We begin with Supporting Actress. Last year, only one of my initial 5 predictions for this race ended up being nominated. It happened to be the winner… Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk. Of the 10 performers below the estimated five, two scored nods (Amy Adams in Vice and Rachel Weisz in The Favourite).

So without further adieu, Todd’s first Oscar calls for 2019!

EARLY PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Annette Bening, The Report

Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Florence Pugh, Little Women

Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell

Other Possibilities:

Anne Hathaway, Dark Waters 

Jennifer Hudson, Cats

Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

Nicole Kidman, Bombshell

Nicole Kidman, The Goldfinch

Janelle Monae, Harriet

Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Meryl Streep, The Laundromat

Meryl Streep, Little Women

Emma Watson, Little Women

Best Supporting Actor is next!

Don’t Let Go Box Office Prediction

Blumhouse Productions hopes to have a sleeper hit on their hands over Labor Day weekend with Don’t Let Go. The supernatural thriller finds David Oyelowo attempting to retroactively prevent the death of loved ones. Jacob Aaron Estes directs with a supporting cast including Storm Reid, Bryon Mann, Mykelti Williamson, Alfred Molina, and Brian Tyree Henry.

The pic premiered eight months ago at the Sundance Film Festival to mixed reaction. Its Rotten Tomatoes score is at 47%. That’s not a great number to generate buzz and Go appears to be lacking it. While it’s a little risky to underestimate Blumhouse, the Labor Day release date isn’t exactly a vote of confidence.

I’ll say this doesn’t manage to achieve double digits over the four day holiday weekend. Mid single digits is possibly where this goes.

Don’t Let Go opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

August 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Expect a rather sleepy weekend at the box office as the dog days of August roll along. We have three releases ahead of us as action threequel Angel Has Fallen, sports themed Christian drama Overcomer, and critically hailed black comedy Ready or Not debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Angel Has Fallen Box Office Prediction

Overcomer Box Office Prediction

Ready or Not Box Office Prediction

While I do have Angel flying to the top spot, I have performing under the premieres of predecessors Olympus and London Has Fallen. I think there’s a chance it goes even lower and finds itself in a race for #1 with the second weekend of Good Boys (which surpassed all prognoses this weekend).

Overcomer is an interesting one. It’s from the director of War Room, which performed spectacularly four summers ago. These faith based pics have a history to over perform, though that’s not always guaranteed. I’m giving it the five spot behind the fourth weekend of Hobbs & Shaw and sixth weekend of The Lion King.

I am not seeking an impressive gross for Ready or Not despite its solid reviews. It’s out on Wednesday. My $5.8 million traditional Friday to Sunday estimate and $7.7 million five-day projection leaves it outside my top five.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Angel Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

2. Good Boys

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

3. Hobbs & Shaw

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

4. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

5. Overcomer

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

Box Office Results (August 16–18)

It was a frame that saw five new releases and if it wasn’t named Good Boys, it didn’t do well. The aforementioned preteen comedy took in $21.4 million, way beyond my $14.3 million prediction. Boys is the first R rated comedy to hit #1 in over three years and it should manage to leg out decently.

Hobbs & Shaw was second with $14.1 million, a touch more than my $12.8 million estimate. It’s at $133 million.

The Lion King took third at $12.3 million (I said $11.1 million) for a whopping $496 million overall.

The Angry Birds Movie 2, which I said would be #1, struggled in fourth with just $10.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $16 million since its Tuesday opening. That’s well below my expectations of $17.2 million and $25.4 million, respectively.

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $10 million. My prediction? $10 million! Tally is $40 million.

Dora and the Lost City of Gold mined $8.5 million in its sophomore outing for sixth (I said $9.3 million). The unimpressive total is $33 million.

47 Meters Down: Uncaged was lost at sea in seventh place with $8.4 million. I was higher at $10.2 million. The shark sequel couldn’t match the $11 million plus earned by its predecessor two summers ago.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was eighth with $7.6 million, in line with my $7.1 million estimate. The Quentin Tarantino flick stands at $114 million.

I incorrectly had The Art of Racing in the Rain outside the top ten, but it was ninth with $4.5 million. Two-week gross is $17 million.

The Bruce Springsteen inspired dramedy Blinded by the Light failed to find an audience in tenth with $4.3 million (I gave it more at $5.8 million).

Finally, Richard Linklater’s Where’d You Go, Bernadette performed even weaker in 11th with a measly $3.4 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Watch: Brittany Runs a Marathon

Perhaps this is more of a Golden Globes Watch when it comes to the new comedy Brittany Runs a Marathon. The pic features Jillian Bell as a hard partying single lady whose life is altered when she competes for the NYC Marathon. It screened at the Sundance Film Festival back in January to solid buzz. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 93% ahead of its release this weekend.

Bell has been a scene stealer on TV’s “Workaholics” and features such as 22 Jump Street. This appears to be her breakout starring role and some reviews have suggested it could be a minor hit if Amazon handles marketing correctly. While this holds little chance at Oscar recognition, it will be interesting to see if the studio mounts a campaign for Bell for Best Actress in Musical/Comedy at the Globes. She could follow in the footsteps of Amy Schumer in Trainwreck for a similar part that got nominated. That said, Brittany is definitely lower profile. My Oscar (or GG) Watch posts will continue…

Ready or Not Box Office Prediction

A darkly comedic game of hide and seek is unveiled Wednesday in theaters next week in Ready or Not. The pic stars Margot Robbie… actually it’s Samara Weaving (niece of Hugo). She’s a doppelgänger for Robbie and she plays a bride to be in a filthy rich family who subject her to the aforementioned game where they hunt her down. Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett direct. Costars include Mark O’Brien, Adam Brody, Henry Czerny, and Andie MacDowell.

Not was readied for a premiere in July at the Fantasia International Film Festival and critical reaction was strong. It currently holds a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, I’m not at all confident this will manage to break out with a wide audience. A late August release date doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. This could struggle to reach double digits over its five-day rollout and that means mid single digits for the traditional Friday to Sunday frame is what I’m thinking.

Ready or Not opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $7.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Angel Has Fallen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/13/angel-has-fallen-box-office-prediction/

For my Overcomer prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/14/overcomer-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Where’d You Go, Bernadette

The fact that acclaimed filmmaker Richard Linklater’s latest effort lifted its review embargo one day before release could be seen as a red flag. Considering his previous pic Last Flag Flying didn’t particularly connect with critics or audiences might have been seen as a harbinger of things to come for Where’d You Go, Bernadette.

Reaction out today confirms the suspicions. The Cate Blanchett led mystery comedy, based on Maria Semple’s 2012 bestseller, holds just a 35% Rotten Tomatoes score at press time. Five years after Linklater’s Boyhood won and was nominated for multiple Oscars, it appears this will be quickly forgotten in the slow August frame.

Blanchett has managed some praise for her work. It’s been 15 years since she won Supporting Actress for Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator and 6 years since she took gold for her leading role in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine. She’s been nominated five other times.

I wouldn’t anticipate this will be #8. And overall – If Oscar watchers are looking for Bernadette come nominations time, they’ll be left wondering where it went. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Overcomer Box Office Prediction

The brothers Alex and Stephen Kendrick’s brand of faith based features have had an impressive road to box office success. They hope to continue that trend next weekend with Overcomer. The sports themed drama is Alex’s directorial follow-up to 2015’s War Room, which shocked prognosticators with its eventual earnings. Stephen serves as co-writer for the screenplay with Alex in the starring role and costars including Priscilla Shirer and Shari Rigby.

Prior to War Room, the Kendricks Fireproof and Courageous both topped $30 million domestically. Room took them to a new level with an $11 million start as it legged out impressively to $67 million.

If Overcomer were to hit double digits, it won’t be as surprising as their previous hit. I’ll say it misses that mark, but it’s certainly in the realm of possibility.

Overcomer opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million

For my Angel Has Fallen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/13/angel-has-fallen-box-office-prediction/

For my Ready or Not prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/16/ready-or-not-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Luce

After premiering at the Sundance Film Festival in January, racial drama Luce has been doing decent limited release business over the past couple weeks. The film centers around a high school athletic prodigy (Kelvin Harrison Jr., in a performance drawing raves) and his adoptive parents played by Naomi Watts and Tim Roth. Octavia Spencer costars.

Luce drew its share of admirers on the festival circuit and it currently holds a 91% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Nigerian filmmaker Julius Onah directs with a screenplay he co-wrote along with JC Lee. It’s probably Original Screenplay where this holds a slight chance at being recognized. The likely scenario is this gets lost in the shuffle behind higher profile releases. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: The Peanut Butter Falcon

After premiering last weekend in limited release to pleasing box office results, The Peanut Butter Falcon is generating buzz among audiences. The dramedy centers on a boy with Down syndrome (Zack Gottsagen) who dreams of becoming a pro wrestler and his unique journey to get there. The impressive supporting cast includes Shia LaBeouf (experiencing an indie career resurgence with this and Honey Boy), Dakota Johnson, John Hawkes, Bruce Dern, Jon Bernthal, and Thomas Haden Church. It marks the directorial debut of Tyler Nilson and Michael Schwartz, who also penned the screenplay inspired by the tale of Huckleberry Finn.

When Falcon debuted earlier this year at the South by Southwest Festival, it picked up an Audience Favorite prize. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 96%. Could Academy voters take notice?

In order for that to occur, the pic will really need to take off with crowds in coming weeks and the jury is still out. I would say it stands an outside shot at an Original Screenplay nod, but competition could be brutal. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Angel Has Fallen Box Office Prediction

In 2913, Olympus Has Fallen surprised box office prognosticators with a gross of $98 million stateside, eclipsing the earnings of the similarly themed and higher profile White House Down from that same year. The Gerard Butler action thriller has now spawned two sequels with Angel Has Fallen rising in cinemas next weekend.

Butler’s Secret Service agent now finds himself framed for the attempted assassination of Morgan Freeman’s character. Ric Roman Waugh, best known for directing Dwayne Johnson in Snitch, is behind the camera. Costars include Jada Pinkett Smith, Lance Reddick, Tim Blake Nelson, Piper Perabo, Danny Huston, and Nick Nolte.

As mentioned, Olympus was a sleeper hit that soared out of the gate with $30 million. 2016 follow-up London Has Fallen couldn’t match those numbers with a $21 million start and $62 million eventual tally.

My expectation is that the third edition will continue the downward trend. Mid to possibly high teens is likely. In the dog days of August, that might be enough for an unremarkable #1 debut.

Angel Has Fallen opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million

For my Overcomer prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/14/overcomer-box-office-prediction/

For my Ready or Not prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/16/ready-or-not-box-office-prediction/