Film festival season is upon us! And that means you can expect a ton of Oscar Watch posts over the coming days emanating from Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. We begin with TheTruth, which opened Venice just hours ago. It comes from director Hirokazu Kore’eda, fresh off his predecessor Shoplifters nabbing a Foreign Language Film nod last year.
The pic casts legendary French actress Catherine Deneuve as an aging screen diva. Early reviews are solid, but it’s likely any awards chatter will center around its lead and not the director or the supporting cast that includes Juliette Binoche and Ethan Hawke.
Deneuve’s sole Oscar nomination was 27 years ago for Indochine. Her latest scored a splashy festival premiere, but it needs to pick up distribution and a 2019 release date to be viable. It probably will and while it could be somewhat of a long shot, I wouldn’t count out the chances for her inclusion.
ItChapterTwo will no doubt float to the top of the charts next weekend when it’s unleashed in cinemas. The Stephen King adapted horror epic continues the story of the Losers Club battling demonic clown Pennywise and hopes to rake in similar earnings to its 2017 predecessor. Andy Muschietti returns in the director’s seat with Bill Skarsgard back as Pennywise. Jaeden Martell, Sophia Lillis, Finn Wolfhard, Chosen Jacobs, Jeremy Ray Taylor, Jack Dylan Grazer, and Wyatt Oleff reprise their roles as the youthful Losers Club. Part 2 also flashes forward in time and finds James McAvoy, Jessica Chastain, Bill Hader (said to be a scene stealer), Isaiah Mustafa, Jay Ryan, James Ransone, and Andy Bean portraying their adult versions. This is the only wide release of the weekend as other studios steered clear.
It was a genuine box office phenomenon when it came out during the same post Labor Day frame two years ago. Bursting out of the gate with $123.4 million, it ended its domestic gross at just over $327 million. That made It the largest September opening of all time and highest debuting and overall earning horror feature ever.
ChapterTwo stands a real chance at breaking those records. Unlike some sequels in 2019 that followed long after previous entries, chapter one is still fresh in the minds of audiences. There’s a desire to see how it wraps up. That said, I’ll say this falls under what that creepy clown and company accomplished in 2017.
ItChapterTwo opening weekend prediction: $109.7 million
We’ve arrived at the biggest contest of all in my inaugural Oscar predictions for 2019 – Best Picture! If you missed my first takes on director and the acting categories, you can read them right here:
As a reminder, Picture is the only race where the number of nominees can fluctuate anywhere from 5 to 10. In recent years, the magic number is normally 9. However, there were 8 movies up in 2018. My initial late August projections last year yielded three of the eventual 8: BlacKkKlansman, AStarIsBorn, and Roma. Three other flicks nominated were mentioned in my other possibilities: BlackPanther, TheFavourite, and Vice. Interestingly, eventual winner GreenBook wasn’t quite on my radar screen at that time.
I’ll go with nine for the time being. The multitude of film festivals starting Thursday and over the coming weeks will shape all races tremendously. My first ranked predictions in the top 6 categories will start this Thursday and be updated weekly.
Let’s get to it!
EARLYOSCARPREDICTIONS: BESTPICTURE
1917
Bombshell
TheFarewell
TheIrishman
LittleWomen
MarriageStory
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood
Parasite
TheReport
OtherPossibilities:
ABeautifulDayintheNeighborhood
AdAstra
AHiddenLife
Avengers: Endgame
DarkWaters
FordvFerrari
TheGoldfinch
Harriet
JojoRabbit
Joker
JustMercy
TheLaundromat
TheLighthouse
PainandGlory
Rocketman
TheTwoPopes
And there you have it! Expect a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts stemming from Toronto, Telluride, Venice, and New York in the near future…
My initial Oscar predictions for the 2019 season continues with Best Director with Picture on the horizon! If you missed my first takes on the acting categories, you can find them right here:
In 2018, my inaugural projections yielded 2 out of the 5 eventual nominees. That includes the winner Alfonso Cuaron for Roma and Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman. My ten other possibilities section a year ago called out two additional nominees – Yorgos Lanthimos (TheFavourite) and Adam McKay (Vice).
It’s Labor Day weekend as the summer movie season draws to a close. This is typically one of the more unexceptional holiday frames at the box office and 2019 should be no different. Blumhouse is putting out the supernatural thriller Don’tLetGo with David Oyelowo and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My four-day forecast for $4.5 million for Go takes it well out of top 5 contention. Instead we should see AngelHas Fallen managing a second weekend atop the charts after it rose above expectations, including my own.
GoodBoys should stay put in second. The rest of the top five could get interesting. This past weekend, we saw numbers 3-6 separated by a mere $100k. I expect that to continue here. Worthy of note is that these holdover summer offerings often see an increase in their grosses due to the extra day.
And with that, my take on the top 5 and take note that these are Friday to Monday numbers:
1. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
2. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
3. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Overcomer
Predicted Gross: $9 million
BoxOfficeResults (August23–25)
As mentioned, action threequel AngelHasFallen exceeded projections with a solid $21.3 million, easily ahead of my $15.2 million forecast. That’s only $300k under predecessor LondonHasFallen, reversing this season’s trend of follow-ups falling short of what came before.
GoodBoys was second with $11.6 million (I said $12.5 million) for a pleasing two week tally of $41 million.
Faith based sports drama Overcomer topped its entire budget in third with $8.1 million, slightly overcoming my $7.4 million prediction.
Hobbs& Shaw was fourth with $8 million, on pace with my guesstimate of $7.9 million. Total is $147 million.
TheLionKing rounded out the high five and also made $8 million (I said $7.5 million) for a massive haul of $510 million.
ReadyorNot debuted in sixth with… $8 million. The acclaimed horror comedy slashed past my $5.8 million estimate. Since its Wednesday rollout, earnings are $11 million and that’s above my $7.7 million projection.
A trio of bold performances carries the striking look and bawdy humor of TheFavourite, the latest effort from visionary filmmaker Yorgos Lanthimos. Set in the early 18th century, it takes considerable historical liberties with its Queen and her subjects. It’s all in the service of a semi tragic comedy with the three leads seeking to hold and attain power.
Olivia Colman is Queen Anne, increasingly sickly and dependent on closest advisor Sarah (Rachel Weisz). A war with France is raging and Sarah deftly moves to provide strategic advice. Other than the 17 rabbits she keeps as pets, the Queen typically has that audience of one. That’s until Abigail (Emma Stone), a cousin of Sarah’s, arrives in the luscious grounds to seek employment and eventually stake her claim as a confidante. Her scheming succeeds. This sets up a love triangle and an ever evolving quest for Anne’s affections.
The men in these women’s lives are largely disposable. Harley (Nicholas Hoult) is a thorn on their sides as the politician undermines war efforts and serves as Abigail’s co-conspirator when it fits her needs. Samuel (Joe Alwyn) has social standing important enough for Abigail to take him as a husband and accentuate her lifestyle. They’re tolerated.
This is a period piece that is anything but stuffy. If anything, it’s positively randy in its exploration of sex and greed. From its costume and production design and cinematography, this is a gorgeous looking picture.
Colman has the most dynamic part of the three. Sad and vulnerable and unwell, she’s still the ultimate actor to wield dominance and she never forgets it. While Abigail is more myopic in her thirst for influence, Sarah’s royal connection is a bit more complicated and compelling. Weisz makes the most of her layered role.
TheFavourite is short of great, but it is a feast for the eyes about people whose eyes are permanently fixed on their proximity to the throne.
My run through of the first 2019 Oscar predictions on the blog continues with Best Actor! If you happened to miss my calls on the lead Actress and supporting races, you can peruse them here:
As mentioned before, these are the pre festival projections. When dozens of anticipated titles begin to screen starting later this week, expect everything to come into a considerably sharper focus. In my Supporting Actor entry, I pointed out that there is uncertainty as to whether Tom Hanks will be placed there or in lead for ABeautifulDayintheNeighborhood. I am listing the two time winner as a possibility in both.
In 2018, these initial estimates for Actor yielded 2 out of the eventual 5 nominees – Bradley Cooper for AStarIsBorn and Willem Dafoe in AtEternity’sGate. In my ten other possibilities, I correctly named Christian Bale in Vice and eventual winner Rami Malek for BohemianRhapsody.
Today on the blog, we continue with initial Oscar predictions in the six major categories. The supporting races were covered yesterday and if you missed them, you can find the posts right here:
This brings us to Best Actress with a snapshot of the contenders before festival season kicks into high gear later this week. When I did my inaugural projections for this race in August 2018, it yielded two of the eventual nominees – Lady Gaga for AStarIsBorn and Glenn Close as TheWife. In the other possibilities portion naming ten others, winner Olivia Colman for TheFavourite and Melissa McCarthy in CanYouEverForgiveMe? were named.
Booksmart is about intelligent people with a lot left to learn. It’s a teen comedy that exists within the confines we expect. Yet it does so with characters who are flawed and likable and not stereotypical. As a directorial debut for Olivia Wilde, it’s a stylish accomplishment with a keen eye for casting. Like Superbad from over a decade ago, it convinces us that the two leads are best friends with a long history.
Kaitlyn Dever is Amy. She’s been out of the closet for two years and is planning a summer sabbatical in Africa post graduation. Amy hasn’t been out socially in her formative years and neither has her BFF Molly (Beanie Feldstein). She’s the class president with a ticket to Yale and a crush on the hunky VP who’s Mr. Popularity. On the final day of school, the duo decide to finally attend the biggest grad party of them all. It takes various excursions to get there and it doesn’t help that they don’t know the address.
As we suspect, Amy and Molly’s bond is tested as crushes are explored and unexpected romantic interests materialize. Both performers do a remarkable job with their chemistry and individual moments. A heated argument between them is shot to perfection. With a screenplay from four female writers, their interplay seems heartfelt and real.
That’s not to say some cliches aren’t overdone. Of course they’re going to be accidentally drugged, but the animated sequence accompanying that occurrence is a joy. Wilde’s hubby Jason Sudeikis shows up as the school principal/Lyft driver. Lisa Kudrow and Will Forte are Amy’s parents. These are well known comic actors, but the young adults playing high schoolers in the supporting cast truly stand out. This includes Billie Lourd as a rich girl who seems to be everywhere at all times and Skyler Gisondo as her best bud who tries too hard but has his heart in the right place.
That description applies to Booksmart as a whole. Like many of the best pics in this genre, it’s happily R rated. The writers don’t pigeonhole the kids as know it alls or morons, but as genuine seniors who make mistakes and do the right thing often when tested. Booksmart doesn’t always break the mold in this well worn genre, but it provides plenty of laughs and sincerity as Amy and Molly turn a page.
Continuing with my initial Oscar predictions for the 2019 season, we arrive at Best Supporting Actor! If you happened to miss Supporting Actress, you can find it here:
As mentioned in the previous posts, these are the pre-festival projections where there’s a whole lot of guesswork involved. However, my five performers that I called out in my initial 2018 predictions yielded a strong three of the eventual five nominees: Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman, Sam Elliot in AStarIsBorn, and Sam Rockwell in Vice. In the ten other possibilities, I did name nominee Richard E. Grant in CanYouEverForgiveMe? The only actor I didn’t list was eventual winner Mahershala Ali for GreenBook.
A couple of quick notes: Brad Pitt is likely a shoo-in for a nod. There seems to be a question as to whether Tom Hanks will be classified as lead or supporting for his role as Mr. Rogers in ABeautifulDayintheNeighborhood. I’m listing him as a possibility for both categories until it’s official.
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