JC Chandor’s AMostViolentYear finds our central character succeeding and struggling to achieve the American dream. It is a journey hampered by time, place, and competition. It is one helped by his own drive and tireless ambition and a genuine belief that he is always attempting to do the right thing.
That person is Abel Morales (Oscar Isaac) circa New York City 1981. He owns Standard Heating Oil Company and he’s already taken it from a small operation to a growing one. The time and place troubles he faces is a metropolis plagued by high crime rates. His trucks are frequently being hijacked. The competition troubles comes from his suspicions that his rivals are responsible. And that attempting to always do the right thing business doesn’t mean an ambitious District Attorney (David Oyelowo) isn’t breathing down his neck.
Abel’s professional endeavors are assisted by two key individuals: his wife Anna (Jessica Chastain) and his attorney (Albert Brooks) who seems to rarely give him good news. Anna is a fascinating character and Chastain’s performance only accentuates her. We are told she comes from a known family with a Brooklyn gangster father. We see flashes of ruthlessness in her that likely came from that upbringing. There are times when you wonder if Abel’s burgeoning yet troubled enterprise would run more smoothly (and probably with more bloodshed involved) if she were CEO.
We’ve seen plenty of crime dramas where our subject is a bad guy attempting to go good. Abel is more of a protagonist trying not to turn antagonist. Isaac is terrific. There are absolutely times where his acting reminds us of Pacino in the first Godfather. He’s a man surrounded by corruption, but with a moral compass that allows him to sleep at night.
For a movie called AMostViolentYear, we see little of it. A subplot involving one of Abel’s drivers (Elyes Gabel) provides some suspenseful and unexpected moments. There is thematically nothing very new here, but I welcomed this Sidney Lumet influenced character study and the first rate acting. Its early 80s NYC vibe doesn’t feel retro. More pleasingly, Year just feels like it could have made in 1981 when we would have watched it in old school VHS glory.
Faith based comedic drama The Resurrection of Gavin Stone debuts next weekend and it hopes to over perform like several other Christian themed pics have in recent years. Co-produced in part by Blumhouse Tilt and WWE Studios, it stars Brett Dalton, Anjelah Johnson, Neil Flynn, Shawn Michaels (yep, the wrestler), and D.B. Sweeney (yep, one half of the ice skating duo in early 90s flick The Cutting Edge).
Focusing on a washed up child star who pretends to be a person of faith to play Jesus in a megachurch production, Stone comes with just a teeny $2 million budget. Profitability shouldn’t be a tall order.
That said, I expect it to fall just under its budget in the opening frame with the caveat that it could surprise a bit.
The Resurrection of Gavin Stone opening weekend prediction: $1.6 million
For my xXx: Return of Xander Cage prediction, click here:
20th Century Women first screened at the New York Film Festival in the fall and quickly became mentioned for awards attention. The 1970s set comedic drama is directed by Mike Mills and stars Annette Bening, Greta Gerwig, Elle Fanning, and Billy Crudup. Reviews have been strong and it stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Yet it can’t be denied that its Oscar hopes have appeared to dim significantly. Its Best Picture prospects appear gone and even Annette Bening (once looked at as a sure fire Actress nominee) could be on the outside looking in. This is important because the lack of buzz could greatly hurt its box office abilities when it opens wide next weekend.
Women has performed decently in limited release, but I’m not convinced that will hold true for its roll out. I’ll say this manages just under $3 million.
20th Century Women opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million
For my xXx: Return of Xander Cage prediction, click here:
Well, hello everyone! It’s Thursday and my first Oscar predictions of the new year have rolled in…
In the past two weeks we’ve seen the Golden Globes occur, which showered its love upon La La Land. We’ve had BAFTA and Producers Guild nominations (that one produced a surprise nod for Deadpool and puts the comic book pic in the top 20 for the firs time). And the Director Guild announced their five nominees this morning, which exactly matches my picks here. We’ve seen pictures (in my estimation) increase their chances (Arrival, Hidden Figures) and others fall a bit (Silence).
On Thursday the 19th, I will make my final round of Thursday predictions and on Sunday the 22nd – my “final” final predictions prior to the announcement on January 24th.
Here’s how I see it all right now…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 7)
5. Lion (PR: 5)
6. Fences (PR: 4)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Silence (PR: 6)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)
13. Sully (PR: 13)
14. Jackie (PR: 14)
15. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
16. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 16)
18. Patriots Day (PR: 17)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)
20. Zootopia (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
7. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
9. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Paterson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
7. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)
8. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
5. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
9. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)
9. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Lupita Nyong’o, Queen of Katwe (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Arrival (PR: 4)
3. Lion (PR: 2)
4. Fences(PR: 3)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
7. Loving (PR: 8)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
9. Silence (PR: 5)
10. Elle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sully
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. Toni Erdmann (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Zootopia (PR: 9)
10. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I, Daniel Blake
Best Animated Feautre
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. The Little Prince (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 5)
7. Finding Dory (PR: 6)
8. Your Name (PR: 9)
9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
April and the Extraordinary World
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)
2. Gleason (PR: 4)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)
4. 13th (PR: 3)
5. Cameraperson (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The Ivory Game (PR: 9)
7. Life, Animated (PR: 5)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. Weiner (PR: 10)
10. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 2)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. The King’s Choice (PR: 5)
7. Tanna (PR: 8)
8. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: 9)
9. Paradise (PR: 7)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Arrival (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Lion (PR: 6)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
9. Jackie (PR: 8)
10. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
4. Allied (PR: 3)
5. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
7. Silence (PR: 6)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Live by Night (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Alice Through the Looking Glass
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
4. Arrival (PR: 3)
5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Silence (PR: 5)
8. Lion (PR: 7)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Jackie
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)
2. Deadpool (PR: 3)
3. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)
5. Suicide Squad (PR: 4)
6. The Dressmaker (PR: 6)
7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 7)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Jackie (PR: 5)
8. The BFG (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hidden Figures
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 3)
4. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
5. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 6)
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 4)
8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
9. “Faith” from Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 8)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)
9. Allied (PR: 6)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)
5. Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 6)
7. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 7)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Allied (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Captain America: Civil War
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)
Other Possibilties
6. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
7. Sully (PR: 6)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)
9. Deadpool (PR: 10)
10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Allied
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 5)
7. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 10)
8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 8)
9. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 7)
10. Passengers (PR: 9)
That equates to the following number of nominations for each film:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea
6 Nominations
Lion, Hacksaw Ridge
4 Nominations
Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Hell or High Water, Jackie
2 Nominations
Captain Fantastic, Nocturnal Animals, Toni Erdmann, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Deepwater Horizon
1 Nomination
Elle, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, The Little Prince, I Am Not Your Negro, Gleason, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Cameraperson, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Allied, Love & Friendship, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange.
Michael Keaton has had the rare feat of appearing in the last two Best Picture Oscar winners with 2014’s Birdman and 2015’s Spotlight. For awhile, TheFounder (out next weekend) was looked at as potential awards bait. Keaton headlines the biographical drama playing Ray Kroc, the man who acquired what would become the multi billion dollar McDonald’s franchise. John Lee Hancock directs and his previous efforts include TheBlindSide and SavingMr. Banks. Laura Dern, Nick Offerman, John Carroll Lynch, Linda Cardellini, Patrick Wilson, and B.J. Novak costar.
TheFounder has had a shifty journey to the big screen. It was originally tapped to debut in November before being pushed up to August before being pushed back to January. It had a very limited release in December to qualify for Academy consideration, but that probably won’t matter much. While reviews so far have been decent (81% on Rotten Tomatoes), it’s likely to receive zero nominations. This won’t be a Keaton trifecta for Best Picture.
What does it all mean for the box office? While any moviegoer is certainly familiar with the subject matter, I don’t that see that translating to much business. That said, the pic comes with just a tiny reported $7 million budget. I’ll predict it mkea under that in its first weekend for a mid single digits start.
TheFounder opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million
For my xXx: ReturnofXanderCage prediction, click here:
The cinematic horror stylings of M. Night Shyamalan returns to theaters next weekend when Split debuts. His latest fright fest stars James McAvoy as a man with multiple personalities who kidnaps three teen girls. Anya Taylor-Joy and Betty Buckley are among the costars acting alongside all of McAvoy’s characters.
Split screened at a couple of film festivals during the fall and early word suggests a return to form for the auteur. The current Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 82%. Of course, Shyamalan’s filmography is a checkered one. He sprinted out of the gate with commercial and critical hits such as TheSixthSense, Unbreakable, and Signs. Disappointments from critics and audiences would come with LadyintheWater, TheHappening, and AfterEarth. His previous effort, 2015’s TheVisit, drew mixed reaction from reviewers and crowds yet it debuted with a better than anticipated $25 million weekend and $65M overall domestic take.
In fact, the smallest first weekend from the director since he’s become a celebrity in his own right remains LadyintheWater at $18 million. I incorrectly predicted TheVisit would open under that over one year ago and was proven wrong.
With solid reviews and effective TV spots and trailers, I’ll predict Split gets over that $18 million figure and just shy of $20M.
Split opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million
For my xXx: ReturnofXanderCage prediction, click here:
Lest ye forget, the Fast and Furious series isn’t the only franchise that Vin Diesel has been a part of and I’m not talking about Riddick or Guardians of the Galaxy. Next weekend, Mr. Diesel returns in the title role of xXx: Return of Xander Cage.
In 2002, the star (hot off the first Fast feature) headlined summer action blockbuster xXx, which opened to $44 million with an eventual $142M domestic haul. Yet, just like the first Furious sequel, he decided to sit out the follow-up, xXx: State of the Union which featured Ice Cube instead. That one didn’t fare so well with just a $12 million debut and $26M overall gross.
Cage finds D.J. Caruso taking over the directorial duties with a supporting cast that includes Samuel L. Jackson, Donnie Yen, Toni Collette, Ruby Rose, Deepika Padukone, Nina Dobrev, and Tony Jaa. The question is: will moviegoers return to the super spy action series nearly 15 years after the original?
The answer: to an extent. Diesel has obviously gotten max exposure in recent years with the well-received Furious extravaganzas. There is the cautionary tale of 2015’s The Last Witch Hunter, which he hoped would turn into a franchise but sputtered with just $27 million domestically. xXx may earn that and then some in its first weekend of release. I’ve got it pegged in the mid to high 20s and even though that’s not reaching what the first Cage opus made a decade and a half ago, it’s OK.
xXx: Return of Xander Cage opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million
Well, folks, it’s the third four-day holiday box office frame in four weekends as MLK Day is Monday and there’s a total of six (yes six) pictures debuting or rolling out in wide release. They are: the Peter Berg directed Boston Marathon dramatic thriller Patriots Day, Ben Affleck’s gangster pic Live by Night, Jamie Foxx action flick Sleepless, inexplicably huge budget and long delayed family pic Monster Trucks, horror entry The Bye Bye Man, and Martin Scorsese’s historical epic Silence. You can experience my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:
With this infusion of new product invading the marketplace, it could create a lot of intrigue as to what comes out on top. The four-day frame should mean rather small drops for returnees (Underworld could be the exception) and in some cases, we could see increases.
Hidden Figures got off to a terrific start in wide release. With an A+ Cinemascore grade and rapturous word of mouth, I see a slight increase for it that might be enough to keep it #1, ever so slightly ahead of Patriots Day. I believe that it will have the highest debut of the newbies.
My estimates put Live by Night in sixth with a disappointing debut with Sing and Rogue One in third and fourth. Other newcomers (Sleepless, Trucks, Bye Bye) will be in the 7-8-9 spots as I believe La La Land will post a fifth place showing. This is due to its huge success at the Golden Globes and an expected significant increase in screens next weekend.
Finally, Silence is only debuting on 750 screens and I expect it to fall outside of the top ten.
And with that, my top ten predictions for the long and bustling weekend:
1. Hidden Figures
Predicted Gross: $24.1 million (representing an increase of 6%)
2. Patriots Day
Predicted Gross: $23.6 million
3. Sing
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 21%)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 27%)
5. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing an increase of 36%)
6. LivebyNight
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
7. Sleepless
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
8. Monster Trucks
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
9. The Bye Bye Man
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
10. Underworld: Blood Wars
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)
Box Office Results (January 6-8)
In a rather surprising result, Hidden Figures dislodged Rogue One from the top spot with a better than expected $22.8 million. This tops my $19.3M projection. As mentioned, its encouraging audience reaction bodes well for this weekend and beyond.
Rogue One slipped to second after three weeks on top with $22 million, under my $28.2M estimate for a total of $477M.
Sing was third with $20.7 million (under my $25.3M prediction) for a $214 overall tally.
Underworld: Blood Wars, the first new 2017 wide release, posted lackluster results in fourth with just $13.6 million (I was higher at $17.6M). All four previous franchise entries had debuted to over $20M.
La La Land rounded out the top five with $10.1 million (I said $12.8M) to bring its gross to $51M.
The rest of the top ten were all holdovers and were as follows:
6. Passengers: $8.8 million ($80M total). My prediction: $9 million
7. Why Him?: $6.9 million ($48M total). My prediction: $6 million
8. Moana: $6.3 million ($225M total). My prediction: $6.6 million.
9. Fences: $4.8 million ($40M total). My prediction: $6.7 million.
10. Assassin’s Creed: $4.1 million ($49M total). My prediction: $4.2M.
Finally, the critically acclaimed A Monster Calls was ignored by audiences and made just $2 million out of the gate, lower than my $3.4M forecast.
To borrow a phrase that will surely be used many times over this evening and tomorrow, the Hollywood Foreign Press went ga ga for LaLaLand at the Golden Globes and made some history in the meantime. The Damien Chazelle musical won 7 trophies and was victorious in every category it was nominated for: Picture (Musical/Comedy), Director (Chazelle), Screenplay (Chazelle), Actor in Musical/Comedy (Ryan Gosling), Actress in Musical/Comedy (Emma Stone), Score, and Original Song (“City of Stars”). And ladies and gents – that’s a record number of wins in Globes history, topping the six received by OneFlewOvertheCuckoo’sNest and MidnightExpress.
The biggest shocker of the night happened right away when Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s work in NocturnalAnimals took Supporting Actor. It was a big surprise when he was nominated and far more so that he won. There’s a pretty decent possibility he could be the extremely rare GG winner to not receive an Oscar nod (though he certainly just upped his chances).
Overall – this blogger went 9 for 14 in his picks. The LaLa Express was responsible for a couple of those misses. I predicted Hugh Grant in FlorenceFosterJenkins over Gosling and Moonlight over LaLa for screenplay.
A slightly less surprising miss – Isabelle Huppert in Elle taking Best Actress (Drama). I predicted Natalie Portman in Jackie. Elle also took Foreign Language Film over my pick ToniErdmann, yet that wasn’t totally unexpected.
So… what does this all mean for the big dog, the Academy Awards? Well, LaLaLand is unquestionably the favorite with the runner-up being Moonlight, which I correctly predicted for Best Drama.
In acting races, Best Actor (Drama) recipient Casey Affleck in ManchesterbytheSea maintains an edge over Denzel Washington for Fences. Emma Stone is beginning to look more solid by the day for Actress. Supporting Actor is more of a question mark to be sure, though Mahershala Ali in Moonlight is what we’ll call a soft front runner. I correctly predicted Viola Davis for Supporting Actress in Fences and she remains the Academy fave.
Animated Feature went to Disney’s Zootopia and it holds as the mostly likely Oscar winner.
As for the show itself, it felt a little long and rushed at the same time. Steve Carell and Kristin Wiig provided the biggest laughs while host Jimmy Fallon was moderately successful in the short time he was given (he did seem to disappear pretty quickly).
That’s my recap, folks! Updated Oscar predictions coming Thursday…
Recounting the BP Oil Spill disaster of 2010 that was both a human and environmental tragedy, DeepwaterHorizon spends a good deal of its running time concentrating on the competence of those workers on the enormous rig. Peter Berg’s dramatization of the events off the Southern coast of Louisiana finds Mark Wahlberg’s engineer Mike and Kurt Russell’s supervisor Jimmy trying their best at their positions while dealing with cost cutting corporate elements. It’s something many in the audience are likely to relate to and the pic coasts for a bit on simply being a story about people working.
Yet it’s the elements that arrive later during that massive explosion that give Deepwater its disaster flick cred. Had this not been a true story, I’m not so certain the visual spectacle that pervades the third act would’ve been as meaningful. The action sequences are well rendered if not particularly anything new from a run of the mill summer blockbuster.
We get to know more than just Mike and Jimmy. There’s John Malkovich’s BP “company man”. He’s the guy cutting corners and the actor himself is given a pretty decent monologue about it. There’s Kate Hudson as Wahlberg’s wife, watching the drama unfold from afar and Gina Rodriguez as a fellow crew member.
Horizon also features a lot of technical jargon that those without an engineering degree or knowledge of the industry could be lost with. It doesn’t really matter. The script does a perfectly serviceable if unspectacular job letting us meet some people whose everyday occupations put them in previously unseen peril.
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