For the third time in four summers, Universal Pictures and Blumhouse Productions are hoping that moviegoers will be purging as The Purge: Election Year debuts over the Independence Day weekend.
The third entry in the franchise sees James DeMonaco, director of the first two, returning with a cast that includes Frank Grillo, Elizabeth Mitchell, and Mykelti Williamson. Horror films generally begin to lose a bit of steam from pic to pic. The original Purge in 2013 shocked prognosticators with a $34 million opening and a $64 million domestic take. 2014’s sequel Anarchy made $29 million out of the gate and its overall haul was slightly higher with $71 million. As you can see, much of the franchise’s grosses are earned in the first weekend.
Having the Election Year angle in 2016 could help a bit and the series is likely still strong enough to post pleasing results the third time around (especially with a reported budget of only $10 million). I’ll predict it’ll do slightly less than what’s come before it, but not by too much.
The Purge: Election Year opening weekend prediction: $21.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $25.5 million (Friday to Monday)
Steven Spielberg returns to family friendly entertainment with The BFG, which steps into theaters over the Fourth of July weekend. Based on Roald Dahl’s book, the late Melissa Mathison (who wrote E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial) is responsible for the screenplay. Recent Oscar winner Mark Rylance is the BFG (Big Friendly Giant) with Ruby Barnhill, Penelope Wilton, Rebecca Hall, and Bill Hader in the supporting cast.
Disney is banking on the iconic director and the source material bringing kids and their parents to the multiplexes. Reviews have been mostly solid and it stands at 70% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
While The BFG is likely to finish highest among the three films opening over the holiday weekend, it could be hindered by its competition. Finding Dory is likely to have a nice third weekend and The Legend of Tarzan could divert some of its audience away.
I look for this to open in the high 20s-low 30s over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and probably get to the mid-high 30s when factoring in Monday’s July 4th.
The BFG opening weekend prediction: $26.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $33.2 million (Friday to Monday)
For my The Legend of Tarzan prediction, click here:
Well, it’s officially summertime and that means on this blog of mine, I recount the top ten movie hits of the season from 10 years ago and today… 20 years ago. When it comes to the film that ruled summer 1996, there’s a major connection to a sequel coming this very weekend…
As I have in years past, I’ll count down the top ten and then also mention some other notable pics, as well as big old flops. Let’s get to it…
10. The Cable Guy
Domestic Gross: $60 million
It may have managed to place in the top 10, but The Cable Guy (with its darker tones than any of his previous material) was considered to be Jim Carrey’s first flop. This was coming after a quintet of hits that included Ace Ventura and its sequel, The Mask, Dumb and Dumber, and Batman Forever. Critics and audience didn’t know what to make of this Ben Stiller directed effort at first, but it’s since gained a deserved cult following.
9. The Hunchback of Notre Dame
Domestic Gross: $100 million
It couldn’t match the earnings of previous 90s Disney animated fare like Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, The Lion King, or Pocahontas and it isn’t talked about too much anymore, but the studio did manage to get this to the century club… barely.
8. Eraser
Domestic Gross: $101 million
Arnold Schwarzenegger had his first major flop in summer 1993 with Last Action Hero and rebounded the following season in 1994 with True Lies. Action thriller Eraser falls somewhere in the middle. It did pretty well, but critics and audiences were a bit ambivalent.
7. Phenomenon
Domestic Gross: $104 million
John Travolta was still riding high on the momentum of Pulp Fiction, Get Shorty, and Broken Arrow and that continued with this fantasy drama that also included the Eric Clapton hit “Change the World”.
6. A Time to Kill
Domestic Gross: $108 million
John Grisham was a serious box office commodity when Kill hit, directed by Joel Schumacher (doing his second adaptation after 1994’s The Client). The all-star cast that included Sandra Bullock, Samuel L. Jackson, and Kevin Spacey helped and this gave mainstream audiences their first exposure to Mr. Matthew McConaughey.
5. The Nutty Professor
Domestic Gross: $128 million
After a trio of bombs (The Distinguished Gentleman, Beverly Hills Cop III, Vampire in Brooklyn), Eddie Murphy experienced a huge comeback with this remake of the Jerry Lewis comedy. It also kicked off a series of family friendly titles that gave Eddie a second wind in his filmography.
4. The Rock
Domestic Gross: $134 million
Fresh off his Oscar win for Leaving Las Vegas, Nicolas Cage parlayed that buzz into the action genre in this Michael Bay directed Alcatraz shoot-em-up with Sean Connery and Ed Harris. This one’s pretty good. Much of what would follow from Cage? Not so much.
3. Mission: Impossible
Domestic Gross: $180 million
Tom Cruise got his franchise and it started here with Brian De Palma’s rendering of the 1960s TV series. Ethan Hunt and his cohorts are still rolling today.
2. Twister
Domestic Gross: $241 million
Jan De Bont followed up Speed with this high-priced disaster pic starring Bill Paxton, Helen Hunt, and that infamous flying cow.
Independence Day
Domestic Gross: $306 million
Moviegoers loved their destruction in summer 1996 and they saw the White House and plenty of other landmarks blown to smithereens in this alien invasion extravaganza from Roland Emmerich. This was what really made Will Smith a superstar – so much so that he isn’t bothering with the long gestating sequel, out this Friday.
Something that struck me about those 10 highest grossing pictures? Not one sequel. Try getting away with that these days…
And now for some other notable movies in the hot months of ’96:
Kingpin
Domestic Gross: $25 million
The Farrelly Brothers followed up their smash hit Dumb and Dumber with this bowling comedy starring Woody Harrelson, Randy Quaid, and a glorious Bill Murray. It flopped upon release but has since gained a devoted following.
Trainspotting
Domestic Gross: $16 million
This British import was an indie fave of the season and gave American audiences their first big exposure to both director Danny Boyle and its star Ewan McGregor. A sequel is coming in 2017.
And now – the flops of the summer and there were many:
Dragonheart
Domestic Gross: $51 million
This fantasy adventure starring Dennis Quaid and the voice of Sean Connery couldn’t make its $57 million budget back domestically and critics were lukewarm.
Striptease
Domestic Gross: $33 million
Critics and audiences alike didn’t shell out their dollar bills for this Demi Moore “comedy” set in the world of strip clubs.
The Island of Dr. Moreau
Domestic Gross: $27 million
This massive flop gave us Marlon Brando at his most bizarre in this doomed adaptation of the H.G. Wells novel. Do yourself a favor and read about the making of for this project. It’s considerably more entertaining than the picture itself.
Escape from L.A.
Domestic Gross: $25 million
Sixteen years after the well-received Escape from New York, this sequel reuniting director John Carpenter and star Kurt Russell was mostly ignored.
Chain Reaction
Domestic Gross: $21 million
Keanu Reeves had a smash with Speed two summers before. Director Andrew Davis made the Oscar nominated The Fugitive three summer prior. Putting the two together for this stale action thriller was met with yawns.
Kazaam
Domestic Gross: $18 million
A few months before basketball fans turned out in droves for Michael Jordan and Space Jam, they said no thanks to Shaquille O’Neal’s entry onto the silver screen. Charles Barkley still gives him hell for it on “Inside the NBA”.
The Fan
Domestic Gross: $18 million
Between two major hits with 1995’s Crimson Tide and 1998’s Enemy of the State, Tony Scott had this bomb starring Robert De Niro as a baseball nut stalking favorite player Wesley Snipes.
The Phantom
Domestic Gross: $17 million
Comic books adaptations hadn’t quite hit their stride yet during the mid 1990s, as evidenced here with Billy Zane as the title character that couldn’t even earn half its $45 million budget.
The Frighteners
Domestic Gross: $16 million
This horror action comedy is the last major starring role for Michael J. Fox before he turned his attention back to TV and “Spin City”. This failed with moviegoers, but the director would go on to bigger things. His name? Peter Jackson.
Barb Wire
Domestic Gross: $3 million
Here’s another comic adaptation you don’t think of much – this ill-fated Pamela Anderson vehicle that proved audiences liked her better on the beach… or in other videos you didn’t have to pay for.
And that does it, folks! Your recap of summer 1996. I’ll be back next week talking about 2006…
2001’s Zoolander was an often uproarious novelty of a pic that showed Ben Stiller’s ability to essentially take a sketch character and stretch the premise out successfully for 90 minutes. The original took us into the incredibly narcissistic and dumb world of male modeling coupled with nonsensical international intrigue involving the attempted assassination of the Malaysian prime minister. It worked because of its star/director’s enthusiasm behind it and the fact it was a pretty original comedy at the time.
Most movies in this genre don’t need sequels. This is one of them. The novelty has worn badly. Zoolander 2 brings back almost everything and everyone that made us laugh fifteen years ago and has no clue what to do with them. Derek Zoolander (Stiller) is now a has been model living as a recluse. This is following a tragic accident involving his Center for Kids Who Can’t Read Good that was erected in the predecessor’s conclusion. His family life is shattered as is his ability to lock down his iconic facial expressions at opportune moments.
Derek soon finds himself recruited (by Billy Zane no less) to return to the real world when gorgeous celebrities start being offed. An Interpol agent (Penelope Cruz) believes both he and Hansel (Owen Wilson) can be of service. The bonkers plot (so was Zoolander’s, to be fair) finds a way to bring back Mugatu (Will Ferrell), in addition to scores of celeb cameos from the music and fashion world. The Fountain of Youth is involved. Derek finds himself trying to connect with his estranged son. Oh and Sting plays himself as a somewhat mythical figure, which isn’t much of a stretch. And there’s Kristin Wiig in unrecognizable makeup as a designer.
Any picture with these performers will have a few funny moments just based on the odds. I will admit that Kiefer Sutherland (playing himself) and his relationship status with Hansel provided a smile. And yet they are truly few and far between. Zoolander 2 is a title in search of a reason to exist that doesn’t find it. It feels lazy, unneeded, and desperate. For a director like Stiller that has shown so much ability with part one and Tropic Thunder and others, it’s surprising to find No. 2 even looking and feeling drab. I was satisfied at the original when Derek flashed Blue Steel, that magical look. It’s here, but my advice is look away. There’s little magic around.
Three new releases populate the final weekend in June as Independence Day: Resurgence, Free State of Jones, and The Shallows all debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Let’s get Free State and The Shallows out the way first, as I expect both to open in the low double digits and likely place fourth and fifth. I look for Central Intelligence to lose over half its opening audience, which should place it firmly in third.
The real battle could be for the top spot between current champ Finding Dory and Resurgence. I’m anticipating that Dory won’t quite drop 50%, which gives it the edge in my view.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
Finding Dory
Predicted Gross: $69.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)
2. Independence Day: Resurgence
Predicted Gross: $63.5 million
3. Central Intelligence
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million (representing a drop of 57%)
4. Free State of Jones
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
5. The Shallows
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million
Box Office Results (June 17-19)
The Cleveland Cavaliers weren’t the only ones making history this weekend as Disney/Pixar’s FindingDory had the largest animated debut in box office history with $135 million. This easily swam past my $127.3M prediction and topped the $121 million previous record held by ShrektheThird. The sequel to the 2003 classic provided a much needed boost to a summer that is lagging behind the previous one.
CentralIntelligence, as expected, had a sturdy second place debut with $35.5 million, comparable to my $34.1M projection. The debut is in line with recent premieres for costar Kevin Hart and having Dwayne Johnson at his side didn’t hurt.
Holdovers in their sophomore frames held the three-five spots. All experienced precipitous declines and all came in below my estimates. TheConjuring2 was third with $14.8 million (I said $20.3M) for a $71 million total. NowYouSeeMe2 was fourth with $9.3 million (I said $12.5M) for a gross of $41 million. Warcraft was fifth with $7.2 million (I said $8.9M). It’s made $38 million.
Today on the blog, we look at the top ten tracks that were monopolizing the airwaves ten summers ago. Last week, I gave you the top tunes from 1996 and two weeks ago – from 1986. You can read those posts here:
As I did with the previous posts, I’ll rate the song on a scale of 1 (summer bummer) to 10 (seasonal masterpiece) and answer the most important query: is it on my iTunes?
Let’s get to it!
10. “Snap Yo Fingers” by Lil Jon feat. E-40 and Sean P.
The middle of the previous decade was heavily dominated by club bangers when it came to hip hop. “Snap Yo Fingers” is basically, well, another one with Lil Jon’s signature shouts and a solid assist from Bay Area legend E-40. For what it is, it’s decent.
My Rating: 6
Is It On My iTunes? No
9. “Over My Head (Cable Car)” by The Fray
I’ll be totally honest here. I completely forgot about this song – the debut single from the Colorado based rock group. Verdict? Pretty good, though it probably says something that I forgot its existence.
My Rating: 6
Is It On My iTunes? No
8. “Unfaithful” by Rihanna
Written by Ne-Yo , this slow track from Rihanna’s second album shows off her fine vocals. It’s not at the very top of her slow tempo ballads, but it’s memorable.
My Rating: 8
Is It On My iTunes? Yes
7. “Buttons” by The Pussycat Dolls feat. Snoop Dogg
With an assist from The Doggfather, The Pussycat Dolls had a smash hit here. It’s no “Don’t Cha”, but it’s catchy.
My Rating: 7 and a half
Is It On My iTunes: Yes
6. “Ridin'” by Chamillionaire feat. Krayzie Bone
The Houston rapper had a phenomenon with the most smooth ditty ever about the issue of racial profiling. I’ll give it a 7 and a half. It might deserve more, but it really wore out of its welcome.
My Rating: 7 and a half
Is It On My iTunes? No (but it would’ve been in 2006)
5. “It’s Goin’ Down” by Yung Joc
Atlanta rapper Joc had a club smash here. Like “Snap Yo Fingers”, it belongs in that danceable, yet easily forgettable sub genre of hip hop.
My Rating: 5 and a half
Is It On My iTunes? No
4. “Me & U” by Cassie
Bad Boy artist Cassie had her only major hit here with this club friendly and pleasing track. No more, no less.
My Rating: 6 and a half
Is It On My iTunes? No
3. “Crazy” by Gnarls Barkley
Who knew a collabo between Danger Mouse and CeeLo Green would mark one of the most fantastic pop creations in years? It might have been overplayed, but this song is a masterpiece.
My Rating: 10
Is It On My iTunes? Yes
2. “Hips Don’t Lie” by Shakira feat. Wyclef Jean
Columbian singer/dancer Shakira had her largest hit (and her best) with this instantly dance-worthy creation with an assist from Wyclef.
My Rating: 9
Is It On My iTunes? Yes
“Promiscuous” by Nelly Furtado
Timbaland was at the top of his game in 2006 and it shows with his production here on Furtado this groovy Furtado song.
My Rating: 9 and a half
Is It On My iTunes? Yes
And there you have it! This list will return next summer with 1987, 1997, and 2007…
When it come to their movies getting nominated for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars, Pixar is in a class by itself. This specific category was created in 2001. Of the 15 pictures that have won, 8 have come from Pixar. They include 2004’s The Incredibles, 2007’s Ratatouille, 2008’s Wall-E, 2009’s Up, 2010’s Toy Story 3, 2012’s Brave, and 2015’s Inside Out.
And the first Pixar pic to claim the prize? 2003’s Finding Nemo and its long in the works sequel Finding Dory is out Friday. Will Dory become the 9th studio entry to take home the gold statue? After all, it has a glowing 94% Rotten Tomatoes score and could be the summer’s biggest hit.
Well… Not so fast. It’s also worth noting that in 2013 and 2014, two traditional Disney animated flicks took the Oscar with Frozen and Big Hero 6. While Finding Dory will unquestionably score a nomination, its main competition appears now to be Zootopia. That Disney animated traditional title, released in March, became a box office phenomenon itself (a billion worldwide) and holds an even better 98% RT rating. I would maintain that the animals of Zootopia currently hold the edge, with Dory swimming a bit behind it.
It’s Woman vs. Shark as The Shallows swims its way into theaters next weekend. Providing a considerably different aquatic experience than Finding Dory, the horror thriller pits bikini clad Blake Lively in the fight of her life against a big ol’ great white.
Jaume Collet-Serra directs and this is his first time in four films that he’s not working with Liam Neeson (he made Unknown, Non-Stop, and Run All Night). Columbia Pictures is hoping its simple premise and effective trailers will get horror buffs and Shark Week supporters to turn out.
Yet I don’t expect this will take a significant bite out of the box office. All shark movies are measured against Jaws (the original summer blockbuster). Those are big fins to fill and my prediction actually has this just outdoing 2010’s Piranha remake.
The Shallows opening weekend prediction: $10.4 million
For my Independence Day: Resurgence prediction, click here:
In a season of sequels and family entertainment, STX Entertainment is hoping adults will turn out for the Civil War drama Free State of Jones, out next weekend. Focused on the real-life story of a Southerner staging a rebellion against the Confederacy, Jones comes from director Gary Ross, known for Pleasantville, Seabiscuit, and the first Hunger Games pic. Matthew McConaughey stars with Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Keri Russell, and Brendan Gleeson among the supporting cast.
Jones was originally set for release in March prior to its summer push back. The reported $65 million production isn’t your typical summer fare and it may have made more sense with a spring (or especially fall) release date. The studio may be depending on counter programming to lure older audiences into the theaters. Strong reviews could help, but I’m not confident this will break through in a major way.
Even with its well-regarded leading man and accomplished director, I believe Free State of Jones will likely debut in the lower double digits and hope for small declines in further weekends.
Free State of Jones opening weekend prediction: $12.7 million
For my Independence Day: Resurgence prediction, click here:
20 years after its predecessor became the biggest summer hit of 1996 (and the year for that matter), the long gestating sequel Independence Day: Resurgence invades theaters next weekend. Long gestating? Absolutely. Long awaited? That remains to be seen.
Disaster director extraordinaire Roland Emmerich is back behind the camera for the reported $200 million budget alien pic and he’s brought along some of the original cast from two decades ago. That includes Jeff Goldblum, Bill Pullman, Judd Hirsch, Brent Spiner and Vivica A. Fox mixed in with new cast members Liam Hemsworth, Jessie Usher, Sela Ward, and William Fichtner. Conspicuously missing? Will Smith, whose character has been killed off (not a spoiler: the trailers say so). This wouldn’t have been the case if the Fresh Prince had signed up, but he’s got a more breathlessly anticipated summer ’16 flick coming with Suicide Squad.
The original was a phenomenon that took in $306 million domestically, which is equivalent to nearly $600 million today adjusted for inflation. Comparing the opening of the first Day is a tricky proposition. Independence Day opened on a Tuesday over the long Fourth of July weekend, generating $96 million over its six day roll-out. The Friday to Sunday take was $50 million.
Resurgence faces challenges that the first one did not. Will Smith was an emerging box office sensation at the time of release and he’s nowhere to be seen here. This summer has proven that there’s a touch of sequelitis occurring at the multiplex. Then there’s this – will younger audiences turn out in droves when part 1 was released when they were in diapers or before they were born?
While Resurgence shouldn’t have too much trouble topping that $50 million figure earned in the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, it’s highly unlikely to reach the over $300M accomplished by the first one. I’ll predict an opening gross in the low to mid 60s for a so-so debut.
Independence Day: Resurgence opening weekend prediction: $63.5 million
For my Free State of Jones prediction, click here:
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