2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

We have reached day 6 of my earliest Oscar predictions and that means the big one – Best Picture!

This week, the Venice Film Festival has helped make the scene a little clearer in a couple of ways. For one, Damien Chazelle’s La La Land not only looks like an easy pick for a nomination, but it could potentially be a winner. Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals and Denis Villenueve’s Arrival are also in the mix. For now – I’m leaving Arrival out and Animals in (obviously this could certainly change over the next weeks and months).

There’s plenty that we haven’t seen that appear strong – Martin Scorsese’s Silence. Denzel Washington’s Fences. Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight.

And there are others that have already screened at other festivals that look like contenders: Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea. Jeff Nichols’ Loving. This list also includes Nate Parker’s The Birth of a Nation and whether or not news stories involving its director prevent it from being nominated is a legit question. For now, I’ve got it in.

A host of other possibilities abound that have yet to be screened and I’ll be keeping you up to date with numerous prediction posts over the fall. At this juncture, I have nine movies being nominated (there can be anywhere from 9-10).

They are:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST PICTURE

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

The Birth of a Nation

Fences

La La Land

Loving

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Nocturnal Animals

Silence

Other Possibilities:

The 13th

20th Century Women

Allied

American Pastoral

Arrival

Collateral Beauty

The Founder

The Girl on the Train

Gold

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

I, Daniel Blake

Jackie

LBJ

Live by Night

The Lobster

Lion

Miss Sloane

Passengers

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Rules Don’t Apply

Snowden

Sully

A United Kingdom

Oscar Watch: Nocturnal Animals

Another piece of the potential Oscar puzzle has come into focus with Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals, which screened at the Venice Film Festival. The thriller has garnered a number of very positive critical notices and looks to be a player come awards season.

The feature is the second directorial feature from famed clothing designer Ford, who drew positive reactions from his first effort – 2009’s A Single Man (which earned Colin Firth a Best Actor nomination). Animals boasts an impressive cast – Amy Adams, Jake Gyllenhaal, Michael Shannon, Laura Linney, Armie Hammer, Isla Fisher, and Aaron Taylor-Johnson.

Based on early word, this looks to be a factor in Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay (tech categories such as Cinematography and Editing as well). As for the performers, it will be an interesting story to watch with Adams, as she’s likely to compete against herself with Arrival (which also screened at Venice). Gyllenhaal could be in the mix for Actor while Shannon has had a solid 2016 and could compete for Supporting Actor.

Another day. Another strong possibility for Oscar attention. Nocturnal Animals hits screens on November 18th.

The Wild Life Box Office Prediction

2016 has been a terrific year for animated movies with mega-hits like Zootopia, Finding Dory, and The Secret Life of Pets. The love isn’t likely to extend to The Wild Life, opening next weekend. It comes from Belgium and centers on a story involving Robinson Crusoe.

StudioCanal is releasing Life on approximately 2200 screens, so the opportunity is certainly there for family audiences to sign up. Yet this seems to be flying way under the radar and many younger moviegoers and their parents will probably just sit this one out. In fact, this could come in lower than the dismal opening of Ratchet & Clank, which earned just $4.8 million out of the gate in April. I’ll predict it will.

The Wild Life opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my Sully prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/31/sully-box-office-prediction/

For my When the Bough Breaks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/31/when-the-bough-breaks-box-office-prediction/

For my The Disappointments Room prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/01/the-disappointments-room-box-office-prediction/

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Day 5 of my early 2016 Oscar predictions continues with Best Director and this week has already helped solidify the standings of two: Damien Chazelle for La La Land (who looks like a shoo-in for a nod) and Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals (not guaranteed; but very good chance).

Then there’s Martin Scorsese for Silence. The legendary director has been nominated 8 times for this award, including for five of his last six pictures (winning for 2006’s The Departed). It’s a safe pick to put him in, but the only uncertainty is whether or not Silence is actually released this year.

Ang Lee has won the award twice (for Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi) and his Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk looks poised for several nominations.

There are many other possibilities: Denzel Washington could land his first directorial attention for Fences. Jeff Nichols’ Loving has already been the subject of much acclaim. Both Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) and Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) could find themselves in the mix, as could Denis Villenueve (Arrival) and Morten Tyldum (Passengers) for their science fiction pics.

Also worth noting: Nate Parker for The Birth of a Nation. This is a tricky one as the movie has been a critical hit yet prevalent stories on his past have called into question whether the Academy will make that a factor. We shall see.

Here’s how I have the race right now:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Martin Scorsese, Silence

Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Live by Night

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Garth Davis, Lion

Ana DuVernay, The 13th

Clint Eastwood, Sully

Gareth Edwards, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

David Frankel, Collateral Beauty

Stephen Gaghan, Gold

John Lee Hancock, The Founder

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Ken Loach, I, Daniel Blake

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

John Madden, Miss Sloane

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Jeff Nichols, Loving

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Rob Reiner, LBJ

Tate Taylor, The Girl on the Train

Morten Tyldum, Passengers

Denis Villenueve, Arrival

Ben Younger, Bleed for This

Robert Zemeckis, Allied

Best Picture tomorrow!

The Disappointments Room Box Office Prediction

If you haven’t heard much about The Disappointments Room – all I can say is that’s something you share with this blogger. It opens next weekend on approximately 1500 screens and I’ll be damned if I’ve seen a TV spot for it yet. That doesn’t bode well.

It does have some recognizable names and faces behind it. D.J. Caruso, maker of Distrubia, Eagle Eye, and I Am Number Four, directs with Kate Beckinsale, Lucas Till, and Gerald McRaney (TV’s Major Dad!) among the cast. It’s written by Wentworth Miller, star of TV’s “Prison Break”. Billed as a horror film, maybe it would stand a decent chance at OK box office dollars if anyone knew much about it. After all, the genre has performed quite well in 2016.

However, Rogue Pictures appears to have little confidence in selling it and I’ll predict there’s lot of disappointment in the rooms of their offices come next weekend.

The Disappointments Room opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

For my Sully prediction, click here:

Sully Box Office Prediction

For my When the Bough Breaks prediction, click here:

When the Bough Breaks Box Office Prediction

For my The Wild Life prediction, click here:

The Wild Life Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch: Arrival

Another potential Oscar contender has arrived at the Venice Film Festival in the form of, um, Arrival. The science fiction drama comes from director Denis Villeneuve, maker of acclaimed pics such as Prisoners and Sicario. It stars Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner, and Forest Whitaker.

Unlike Venice’s premiere selection, La La Land (which debuted to explosive Oscar buzz), Arrival‘s prospects seem a little more murky. Some early reviews have been raves while others are a bit more mixed. Nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay seem uncertain at this juncture. The pic could certainly play in some of the technical categories, including Sound Mixing and Editing, Cinematography, and Editing.

The only performer who’s likely to hear her name called is five-time nominee Amy Adams. She’s yet to win. Yet there is bound to be serious competition as Best Actress looks as crowded as it’s been in recent memory. In fact, her biggest competition for recognition could be herself, as she also stars in this fall’s Nocturnal Animals from director Tom Ford.

The unveiling of Arrival across the pond puts it in the conversation for several races at the Academy Awards, but it’s far from assured.

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

Day #4 of my first 2016 Oscar predictions brings us to Best Actor and in the past two years, even these incredibly early predictions yielded positive results. My 2014 late August/early September Actor predictions gave us four of the five nominees and in 2015 – three.

We start with Michael Keaton. He just missed out on a win in 2014 for Birdman and has had the distinction of appearing in the last two Best Picture winners (Birdman, Spotlight). It’s likely he’ll receive buzz for this December’s The Founder, in which he plays Ray Kroc – inventor of the McDonald’s franchise.

Denzel Washington both stars and directs in Fences, based on an acclaimed play. It’s been 15 years since he won for Training Day and it could be time to hear his name called again.

Casey Affleck has received raves for Manchester by the Sea. Same goes for Joel Edgerton in Jeff Nichols’ Loving. Readers of the previous posts in the Supporting races know that Moonlight looks to make some noise this season and that could extend to its star Trevante Rhodes.

Same goes for La La Land, which could mean a second nomination (ten years after Half Nelson) for Ryan Gosling. There’s Joe Alwyn in the title role of Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, the latest from double Oscar winner Ang Lee. Woody Harrelson plays the 36th President in LBJ. Double Oscar winner Tom Hanks is Sully. And so on and so on (I’ve even listed Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool as a possibility… even though it’s extremely unlikely).

This finally brings us to Nate Parker, director, writer, and star of The Birth of a Nation, which received raves on the festival circuit earlier this year. It is impossible to know right now how his recent publicity due to a years old rape charge (in which he acquitted) and the suicide of the alleged victim plays out in the minds of voters. For now, I do not have him being nominated. Whether that’s because of the serious competition or other reasons is a factor that is sure to be discussed as the nominations draw closer.

Here’s how I have this initial round shaking out:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Joel Edgerton, Loving

Michael Keaton, The Founder

Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Live by Night

Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

Colin Farrell, The Lobster

Andrew Garfield, Silence

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Tom Hanks, Sully

Woody Harrelson, LBJ

Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake

Joseph Gordon Levitt, Snowden

Matthew McConaughey, Gold

David Oyelowo, A United Kingdom

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Dev Patel, Lion

Brad Pitt, Allied

Chris Pratt, Passengers

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Michael Shannon, Midnight Special

Will Smith, Collateral Beauty

Miles Teller, Bleed for This

We’ll hit Best Director tomorrow and then Best Picture!

Oscar Watch: The Light Between Oceans

Derek Cianfrance’s The Light Between Oceans sure looked like an Oscar contender on paper, but things change quickly in the busy awards derby. Based on a bestselling novel and starring a trio of Oscar winners and nominees, the period piece romance opens Friday. Frankly, I thought it was a bit curious that reviews were embargoed until yesterday.

Now we may know why. Sitting at a so-so 56% on Rotten Tomatoes, many critics haven’t been kind to it. Cianfrance has experienced raves throughout his directorial career with 2010’s Blue Valentine and 2013’s The Place Beyond the Pines (neither received Academy attention, however).

Critics have been gentler with the performers, with Rachel Weisz especially being singled out. She remains a contender in Supporting Actress – albeit a long shot. Fassbender and Vikander appear to be out of the running, as do nods for Picture or Director. Its best chance at recognition probably goes to its composer, Alexandre Desplat. It would mark his ninth nomination.

While La La Land gave us a surefire autumn contender this week, The Light Between Oceans presented quite the opposite.

When the Bough Breaks Box Office Prediction

Screen Gems has quite a profitable enterprise going for the last two years and will try to keep it up for a third with When the Bough Breaks, opening next weekend. The thriller stars Morris Chestnut, Regina Hall, and Jaz Sinclair and was produced for a mere $13 million.

In 2014, the studio put out the similarly themed No Good Deed. The result was a $24.2 million opening. Last year, it was The Perfect Guy (also featuring Chestnut) and it took in $25.9 million for its start. These romantic potboilers have largely appealed to African-American female audiences over 30 and are pretty much critic proof (Perfect Guy didn’t bother to screen for reviewers).

I don’t see much reason why Bough wouldn’t break out in the same way. In fact, I believe it stands an excellent chance at being #1 next weekend over the Clint Eastwood directed/Tom Hanks starring Sully. A debut in the low to mid 20s looks probable for another Screen Gems cash cow.

When the Bough Breaks opening weekend prediction: $22.7 million

For my Sully prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/31/sully-box-office-prediction/

For my The Disappointments Room prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/01/the-disappointments-room-box-office-prediction/

For my The Wild Life prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/02/the-wild-life-box-office-prediction/

Sully Box Office Prediction

***BLOGGER’S NOTE (09/08/16): I’ve caved on Sully prediction. My $19.8M prediction is clearly too low, so I’m switching to $28.5M.

Clint Eastwood and Tom Hanks mark their first collaboration together in Sully, landing in theaters next weekend. The pic tells the true life tale of Captain “Sully” Sullenberger and his “Miracle on the Hudson” water heroics in 2009 and drama that followed. Costars include Aaron Eckhart and Laura Linney.

The film looks to break in adult audiences burnt out on summer blockbusters and having Mr. Hanks in the title role won’t hurt. Looking over his last two wide release starring roles, 2013’s Captain Phillips opened to $25.7 million (I would argue it had more buzz). Last fall’s Bridge of Spies premiered with $15.3 million.

**UPDATED to $28.5M prediction

Even with its familiar and much reported on subject matter, I believe Sully will probably place in between those two efforts. Good reviews and a lack of competition could lift it past that and this is something that could have solid legs with positive word of mouth. I’ll project it gets just under $30M for its start. That would actually give Mr. Eastwood his second highest directorial debut after the massive $89 million that his previous effort (2014’s American Sniper) brought in.

Sully opening weekend prediction: $28.5 million