Twelve years ago, director Terry George’s Hotel Rwanda earned several Oscar nominations, including Actor (Don Cheadle), Supporting Actress (Sophie Okonedo), and Adapted Screenplay. George’s follow-up, 2007’s Reservation Road with Joaquin Phoenix, was a hoped for awards contender that faded away.
His latest effort is The Promise, which focuses on the Armenian genocide and stars Oscar Isaac and Christian Bale. Due to the pedigree involved, it was eyed as potential Academy bait for this season.
The Promise has screened at the Toronto Film Festival to a host of middling reviews and it appears to be a casualty of so-so buzz. The festival season always anoints some big contenders and dilutes others to non-factor status. This appears to be the case here and for Oscar followers, I wouldn’t look for The Promise to grant you any potential nominations in the future.
My Oscar Watch posts will continue as further hopefuls screen up north and elsewhere…
In just over two weeks, Peter Berg’s action packed retelling of the BP drilling rig explosion Deepwater Horizon hits theaters. Festival audiences in Toronto got their sneak peek at it yesterday and early reviews suggest it’s an audience pleaser that is likely to be a big hit.
Horizon teams director Berg with his Lone Survivor star Mark Wahlberg. The supporting cast includes Kurt Russell, Kate Hudson, John Malkovich, Gina Rodriguez, and Dylan O’Brien. Even with its positive critical notices, Horizon is not expected to be any sort of player in the major categories. Mr. Russell was singled out by a couple of writers, but a Supporting Actor nod would be a major surprise.
Where the pic could make an impact is in the two Sound races (Editing and Mixing), just like Lone Survivor did with its nominations. Visual effects is a possibility, but it’ll have a lot more competition in that particular category. The film’s large $156 million budget is said to contribute to it sounding and looking pretty amazing and voters could reward it in these technical competitions.
Warner Bros keeps the onslaught of animated titles being delivered to theaters going with Storks, opening next weekend. The comedic adventure comes from Nicholas Stoller and Doug Sweetland. Mr. Stroller is known for his live-action genre titles like Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Get Him to the Greek, and the Neighbors franchise. The pic features the voices of Andy Samberg, Jennifer Aniston, Keegan-Michael Key, Jordan Peele, Kelsey Grammer, and Ty Burrell.
2016 has been a banner year for animated material with mega-hits like Zootopia, Finding Dory, and The Secret Life of Pets and critically acclaimed fare like Kubo and the Two Strings and Sausage Party. With all those titles mentioned, it’s a distinct possibility that an animated feature will really have to stand out now for family audiences to plunk down their dollars. Whether Storks fits that bill is a legit question.
September has been an occasionally fruitful month for the genre. Hotel Transylvania and its sequel are responsible for the month’s two largest openings at $42 and $48 million, respectively. The two Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs flicks both opened above $30 million. Warner Bros should be ecstatic if Storks manages those numbers.
I don’t believe this will quite reach that level and a debut in the mid to high 20s seems more probable.
Storks opening weekend prediction: $27.9 million
For my The Magnificent Seven prediction, click here:
There are few actors out there who can truly open a movie, but Denzel Washington is one of them. He’s back on screen for the first time in two years with The Magnificent Seven next weekend. A remake of the 1960 classic with Yul Brynner (which itself was a reworking of 1954’s Seven Samurai), this Western re-teams Washington with his Training Day and The Equalizer director Antoine Fuqua. It also features the red-hot Chris Pratt, Training costar Ethan Hawke, Vincent D’Onofrio, Peter Sarsgaard, and Haley Bennett.
Early reviews for Seven have been mixed, but this is likely to be a critic proof exercise that delivers an impressive debut. To give you some perspective on Washington’s star power, his last seven pictures have made over $20 million out of the gate (The Taking of Pelham 123, The Book of Eli, Unstoppable, Safe House, Flight, 2 Guns, The Equalizer). Three (Eli, House, Equalizer) have topped $30M and Safe House managed $40M. With its familiar title and the participation of Pratt (coming off summer 2014’s biggest hit Guardians of the Galaxy and summer 2015’s biggest hit Jurassic World), Seven could also join the plus $40M club. In fact, if this reaches over $43 million (the number that Washington’s 2007 pic American Gangster accomplished), it would mark his largest opening.
I believe it will accomplish that feat for a mid to high 40s debut and that would give it the #2 September premiere of all time.
The Magnificent Seven opening weekend prediction: $47.1 million
In the midst of several Oscar Watch posts deriving from the Toronto, Venice, and Telluride Film Festivals, this evening brings one that slipped my radar months ago. In January at Sundance, the comedic drama OtherPeople debuted. It’s been released in limited fashion this past Friday and has garnered some attention for one particular performance.
SNL’s Molly Shannon has received raves for her role as a dying mother being cared for by her gay son (Jesse Plemons of “Breaking Bad”). For those of us who know Shannon for her wild and broad characters from the famed sketch show, this is said to be quite the impressive departure.
The film itself, from former SNL writer Chris Kelly, has been met with largely positive reviews (85% on RT). However, only Shannon in Supporting Actress stands any realistic shot at Academy attention. It may turn out to be too small a picture in their minds to nominate her. And let’s face it – actors known mostly for comedy often struggle to get their votes anyway. Yet it’s worth a mention as Shannon stands a remote chance at a nod along with four other people.
Much attention has been paid on this blog to the Best Actress race at the 2016 Oscars and deservedly so as it figures to be the most competitive it’s been in some time. Yet there’s another category that’ll be fun to watch. This year has been a banner one for animated features. In some years, it’s a bit of a challenge to think of five worthy of inclusion. In 2016, it’ll be fascinating to see what’s left out.
Two contenders have an odd thing in common: Matthew McConaughey. The 2013 Best Actor winner for DallasBuyersClub has his voice featured in both KuboandtheTwoStrings and Sing, which has screened in Toronto and will be out statewide in time for Christmas. Animated McConaughey has, in fact, had a much stronger year than the Lincoln Lawyer in human form. His summer Civil War drama FreeStateofJones was a critical and commercial flop. Late last month, he starred in Gus Van Sant’s drama TheSeaofTrees. It also received scorn from reviewers and has grossed a truly embarrassing $20,000 in its limited release. Perhaps this December’s Gold will turn things around for him.
Back to his cartoon version. Kubo opened last month to decent box office numbers (it’s made $40 million domestically thus far). Critics went wild for it though and its RT score stands at 97%. Though there’s other animated material that will gross far more than it, its inclusion for a nomination looks solid.
One of those movies that’ll probably far outgross it is Sing. The 3D computer animated musical comes from the company behind the DespicableMe franchise. In addition to McConaughey, it feature the voices of Reese Witherspoon, Scarlett Johansson, Seth MacFarlane, and John C. Reilly. Early reaction from Toronto is positive and suggests it’ll be a major holiday hit.
Yet its chances at an Animated Feature nod appear murkier due to the aforementioned heavy competition. Let’s briefly run the rest of the contenders down. There’s Disney’s spring juggernaut Zootopia. It’s in. There’s Disney’s Moana, their November offering from the team behind TheLittleMermaid and Aladdin. Most prognosticators, including myself, are reserving a slot for it. The foreign title TheRedTurtle opened to raves at Cannes. Japanese entry MissHokusai looks to be a factor. And there’s mega-hits like FindingDory and TheSecretLifeofPets to think about. Finally, how about SausageParty?
All in all, this is one of the most exciting races to follow in 2016 and who knew the stoner guy from DazedandConfused would be right in the thick of it?
The Oscar Watch posts continue as the Toronto Film Festival does with Denial, a true-life legal drama pitting a historian (Rachel Weisz) against a Holocaust denier (Timothy Spall). Mick Jackson directs and he’s had quite the varied career that includes the 1992 blockbuster The Bodyguard, in addition to flops like 1994’s Dana Carvey comedy Clean Slate and 1997 disaster pic Volcano. He’s found greater success on TV recently, like with 2010’s Temple Grandin.
Early festival reviews are mostly positive, but not to the level where I expect Best Picture or Director attention. In a year where the Best Actress was less competitive (and there’s been those in recent years), previous winner Weisz may stand a chance at recognition. I don’t expect that to be the case in 2016 where several performances already seem to be in contention. They include Emma Stone (La La Land), Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals or Arrival), Ruth Negga (Loving), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins). And we still have Viola Davis (Fences) and Annette Bening (20th Century Women) out there for their pics to screen. In other words, it may be too crowded.
Timothy Spall may be another story if Bleecker Street chooses to mount a Supporting campaign for him. The well-respected British actor has yet to receive an Oscar nomination, even though many thought he should have gotten one two years ago for Mr. Turner. If the Supporting Actor race doesn’t get too crowded, he could be a factor.
The third weekend of September brings us four new films (just as last weekend did) and they are: horror sequel Blair Witch, rom com three-quel Bridget Jones’s Baby, Oliver Stone’s political thriller Snowden, and faith-based concert documentary Hillsong – Let Hope Rise. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, Bridget Jones’s Baby looks like it’ll easily place third for the weekend – unless Snowden does considerably better than my estimate. However, I have Snowden pretty far behind in fourth.
Hillsong is unpredictable (it doesn’t help that I don’t have a screen count). I have it in eighth place at $3 million.
The battle for #1 could be one to watch. My estimate for Blair Witch puts it there, but I expect Sully to experience a rather smallish decline. If Witch comes in below my prognosis, the Clint Eastwood/Tom Hanks could land in first for the second frame.
As for current #2 When the Bough Breaks, I look for it to place fifth with a hefty decline.
Here’s how the blog readers feel about my newcomer predictions:
Blair Witch: 36% Too High, 33% Just About Right, 31% Too Low
Bridget Jones’s Baby: 51% Too Low, 32% Just About Right, 17% Too High
Snowden: 71% Too Low, 23% Just About Right, 6% Too High
**I made my Hillsong prediction just this evening, so no real data on that one yet.
And with that, a top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Blair Witch
Predicted Gross: $27.4 million
2. Sully
Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)
3. Bridget Jones’s Baby
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million
4. Snowden
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
5. When the Bough Breaks
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 61%)
Box Office Results (September 9-11)
Sully had a terrific debut over the weekend with $35 million – good for the fifth highest September opening ever and coming in above my $28.5M estimate. It also marks Tom Hanks’s largest live-action premiere in seven years. With an A Cinemascore grade, expect Sully to have sturdy legs moving forward.
The news wasn’t as good for When the Bough Breaks, which made $14.2 million for runner-up status. I was way higher with $22.7M. The romantic thriller couldn’t match the September openings of similarly themed 2014 and 2015 pics – No Good Deed and The Perfect Guy. That said, Bough‘s price tag is only a reported $10 million so a tidy profit is in order for studio Screen Gems.
Don’t Breathe, as expected, dropped to third after two weeks on top with $8.2 million – in line with my $7.5M forecast for a total of $66M. Suicide Squad was fourth with $5.7 million (I predicted $5.1M) for a $307M tally.
Fifth place belonged to Belgian animated entry The Wild Life and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It earned $3.3 million (I went with $3.2M) for a lackluster beginning.
Kubo and the Two Strings was sixth, also at $3.3 million (I said $3.8M) to bring its gross to $40M.
Last and least, Kate Beckinsale’s horror flick The Disappointments Room bombed in a 17th place showing with just $1.4 million. I was a bit more generous at $2.3M.
And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…
BLOGGER’S Update: (09-12-16, 8:24pm) It’s just been revealed that Hillsong will only be released on approximately 815 screens. This lowers my projection to $3 million dollars.
This Friday, the faith based concert film Hillsong – Let Hope Rise hits theaters and will try to attract music loving Christian moviegoers. The documentary chronicles the Australian band’s story as they’ve sold millions of albums since their formation in 1998. It was originally scheduled to be released over a year ago, but was pushed back at least twice due to the bankruptcy of its studio.
Yes, I Googled all of this information as Hillsong is not a group I’m personally familiar with. My uncertainty for its box office prognosis is on a couple of levels. I don’t have a screen count for it yet, most importantly. The difference between 800 theaters or 2000 could greatly fluctuate my estimate (I’ll reserve the right to change this when it is released). Also, faith based audiences have been known to cause pictures to greatly exceed expectations.
So… guess work, folks! As it stands now, I’ll say Hillsong reaches somewhere between $4-6 million and we’ll see how it goes…
Hillsong – Let Hope Rise opening weekend prediction: $3 million (Updated – see above)
Director J.A. Bayona’s name may not be too familiar yet with the moviegoing public. At least not yet. His two previous movies were acclaimed 2007 horror pic TheOrphanage and 2012’s Tsunami drama TheImpossible, which earned Naomi Watts a Best Actress nomination. His name ID will surely increase soon as he’s about to take on the sequel to last summer’s biggest blockbuster, JurassicWorld. Or perhaps even sooner with AMonsterCalls, his fantasy tearjerker which opens December 23rd statewide and screened at the Toronto Film Festival this weekend.
It’s been reported that Monster received a rapturous audience ovation after its premiere. Based on a 2011 bestseller by its author Patrick Ness, the film stars Sigourney Weaver, Felicity Jones, newcomer Lewis MacDougall, and the voice of Liam Neeson as the calling title character. Buzz from Toronto suggests this is a weepie crowd pleaser that deals with serious themes such as parental loss coupled with more fantastical elements.
Not all critics seemed to fall for it with some calling it heavy handed. However, if Monster can break through at the box office, it could find itself with some Oscar talk in Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay. Certain technical category nods seem more likely. And Felicity Jones is said to be a highlight. She’s the It Girl of Fall 2016, appearing in this, Inferno alongside Tom Hanks, and headlining a little something called RogueOne: AStarWarsStory. Her inclusion in Supporting Actress for this one is not out of the question.
As Toronto continues, look for more Oscar Watch posts.
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