Mattel toys are being brought to the big screen next weekend when Max Steel debuts. The superhero tale has a reported budget of just $15-$20 million and that’s probably a good thing for its sake.
Steel features Ben Winchell in the lead alongside Ana Villafane, Andy Garcia, and Maria Bello and some CG aliens. The marketing campaign for this seems pretty darn quiet and one wonders if its studio has much faith in it.
A much higher profile Mattel related property will arrive later when Justin Lin directs a pic based on the Hot Wheels line. As far as this one goes, unless there’s a legion of Max Steel lovers clamoring for a barely marketed adaptation, I see this debuting poorly and fading quickly.
Max Steel opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
Kevin Hart has been busy at the box office in 2016. Ride Along 2 debuted in January with an overall gross of $90 million (shy of its predecessor, but not bad). This summer came Central Intelligence, his team-up with The Rock that marked his second highest grosser ever at $127 million (after the first Ride Along, which made $134M). While the comedian has broken through on the silver screen in a major way, he hasn’t forgotten his stand-up roots. That leads to Kevin Hart: What Now?, out next weekend, which presents his latest comedy tour with a show taped in 2015 in Philadelphia.
For comparisons sake, it’s been three years since Mr. Hart released his last stand-up pic theatrically. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain had a $10 million premiere with a $32M eventual domestic haul. Comedy concerts released in multiplexes are a rare breed, but there’s some hope this could outshine Explain. The most obvious reason is that Hart has become a much bigger movie star in the three years that have transpired. On the other hand, moviegoers know even more now that Now will likely be available for their viewing pleasure via streaming quite soon.
Add that up and I believe What Now? will manage to outpace Explain for a debut in the low to mid double digits.
Kevin Hart: What Now? opening weekend prediction: $13.5 million
It’s been a busy year for Mr. Ben Affleck as he made his debut as the Caped Crusader in Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and will unveil his next directorial effort, the Prohibition era crime drama Live by Night, this December. And that’s not all because next weekend comes The Accountant.
The action thriller stars Batfleck and is directed by Gavin O’Connor, who’s had a mixed filmography with critical and commercial pleasers like Miracle and Warrior. There’s also his previous effort – the Natalie Portman flop of a Western Jane Got a Gun. This will be a true test of Affleck’s star power as he’s really the sole selling point. Costars include Anna Kendrick, J.K. Simmons, Jon Bernthal, Jeffrey Tambor, and John Lithgow.
Two Octobers back, the star had one of his largest career hits with Gone Girl, which debuted to $37 million. The Accountant will try to lure in adult moviegoers who (unlike in the summer) have had plenty of offerings to choose from, including Sully, The Magnificent Seven, Deepwater Horizon, and The Girl on the Train. While this could reach over $20 million, a debut in the high teens seems like the numbers this Accountant will manage.
The Accountant opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million
For my Kevin Hart: What Now? prediction, click here:
The first full weekend of the October box office brings us a trio of newcomers: big-screen adaptation of last year’s bestselling thriller The Girl on the Train, Nate Parker’s slavery drama The Birth of a Nation, and teen comedy Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
While my prediction for Train doesn’t get it near Gone Girl (the blockbuster pic released two years ago on the same weekend that it’s compared to the most), it shouldn’t have much trouble locking down the #1 position.
Birth has received plenty of publicity – first for its rave screenings at festivals and then regarding past legal issues for its director, writer, and star. I have this reaching just over double digits. As for Middle School, it could be stuck in a battle for the five spot with the third weekends of Magnificent Seven and Storks. That said, I’ll predict Storks has a small drop-off and leaps over both of them.
As for other holdovers, I expect current champ Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children to dip a bit further in its sophomore frame than Deepwater Horizon. Both should move down a spot to second and third.
Here’s how the blog’s readers feel about my estimates for the newbies:
The Girl on the Train – 48% Just About Right, 37% Too Low, 15% Too High
The Birth of a Nation – 42% Too Low, 35% Just About Right, 23% Too High
Middle School – 58% Too Low, 25% Too High, 17% Just About Right
And with that, a top 7 predictions for the weekend ahead:
1. The Girl on the Train
Predicted Gross: $28.2 million
2. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 50%)
3. Deepwater Horizon
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)
4. The Birth of a Nation
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
5. Storks
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 30%)
6. Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
7. The Magnificent Seven
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (how about that?? – representing a drop of 51%)
Box Office Results (September 30-October 2)
Tim Burton nabbed his seventh #1 opener of his filmography as Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children took in $28.8 million, schooling my $19.6M forecast. This is a pretty decent debut, though it’s unlikely to join the $100M club as six of the director’s other features have.
Deepwater Horizon premiered in second and I incorrectly had it making more than Peregrine and those strange kiddos. The big-budget disaster pic starring Mark Wahlberg had a muted start (especially considering its price tag) at $20.2 million, below my $24.7M estimate. Its best hope is for meager declines in coming weekends.
The Magnificent Seven was third, dipping a bit farther than anticipated in weekend 2 with $15.6 million. I predicted $18.2M. The Denzel Washington/Chris Pratt Western has made $61 million thus far.
Storks was fourth in its sophomore frame with $13.4 million (I was right there with a $13.2M estimate). The animated pic has grossed $38 million in ten days.
Sully was fifth with $8.2 million (I said $9.1M) as it entered nine digit territory with $105 million to date.
Lackluster newcomers filled the six and seven positions. The oft-delayed Masterminds earned $6.5 million, on the money with my $6.3M prediction. Disney’s Queen of Katwe failed to break through with audiences with just $2.4 million (less than half of my generous $5M projection).
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Two years ago, David Fincher’s Gone Girl successfully adapted its mega-hit novel source material. It earned $167 million stateside and nabbed an Oscar nomination for its lead, Rosamund Pike. This Friday’s The Girl on the Train has been compared to that title frequently. It’s based on a mystery thriller novel that scored with readers just last year. It’s expected to bring in a large female demographic when it debuts this weekend. It has a female lead (Emily Blunt) with a role some have speculated could garner Academy attention. In my previous Oscar prediction posts (they come out every Thursday folks!), I’ve listed Train as a possibility for Actress (Blunt), Supporting Actress (Haley Bennett), Adapted Screenplay, and even Picture. I will note that I had yet to include any of those nominations within the predicted five (or five to ten regarding Picture).
Well, today the critical reaction was unleashed on The Girl on the Train with numerous reviews rolling in. The verdict? Mixed. Very mixed. EW gave it a rave, but several other prominent writers were not kind at all. I don’t really believe this will endanger its box office prospects (I’ve got it slated for a $28.2M debut). Its Oscar prospects, on the other hand, appear… gone. This Thursday, I’ll have my updated post listing the possibilities for the previously mentioned categories. Blunt and Bennett have received some kind words in even some of the negative reviews. Yet their inclusion in the acting races appears far less likely than last week. Screenplay or Picture? Not a chance.
As has been discussed on the blog before, comedy is typically the genre that lends itself least to sequels. A major reason: most of ’em aren’t made with a planned follow-up in mind and therefore contrivances must be invented for them to exist.
This general rule applies to Neighbors2: SororityRising, which arrives two years after the success of the original. In 2014, the teaming of Seth Rogen and Rose Byrne vs. Zac Efron’s wild frat next door was a mostly effective raunchy pic with a couple of gags (air bags) that soared. $150 million domestic later, returning director Nicholas Stoller and his stars picked a pretty simple premise for another installment. Put a sorority there instead of a frat and watch similar hijinks ensue!
This happens when college freshman Shelby (Chloe Grace Moretz) goes to pledge at sororities and discovers they aren’t allowed to hold the wild bashes that their male counterparts are. So she enlists some other girls and Beastie Boys’s it beside the Radners (Rogen, Byrne) who are now expecting their second child. Kappa Nu is formed with an assist from Teddy (Efron), who’s still a bit salty from what went down when he inhabited the property. He’s also painfully still a man-child and the screenplay does get some decent mileage out of that (his changed friendship with frat bro Dave Franco is an example).
As with the first Neighbors installment, games of one upmanship (or upgirlship I guess) go down. The Radners are terrified because the house is in escrow as they’re set to become suburbanites and the new tenants might not appreciate the newly minted party pad. Shelby and her newfound sisters are determined to stay. And if that all sounds a lot like 2014, it is. Same story, different gender.
Rising gets a some solid chuckles out of exploiting the physique of both Mr. Efron and Mr. Rogen. The best moments come from our lead couple acting as de facto parents to Teddy, yet they’re few and far between. This is due to the familiar tale of Kappa Nu and their schemes that involve some serious felonies that the frat guys would’ve balked at.
There have been plenty of comedic #2’s far worse than this. The trio of Rogen, Byrne, and Efron do give it their all and don’t just go through the motions. Still – this one feels mostly uninspired despite the talent involved and keeps that general comedy sequel rule intact.
Another “re-imagining” of the Tarzan tale? Could this work at all?
YOU…
might be surprised by how some wise choices contribute to David Yates’s TheLegendofTarzan being a fairly satisfying experience.
The first solid choice is not to make this an origin story like we’ve seen repeatedly with franchises in recent years. When the proceedings begin, Tarzan (Alexander Skarsgard) is settled in London as Lord Greystoke with wife Jane (Margot Robbie). His childhood of growing up in the wild and being able to communicate with the jungle creatures is told as backstory and it doesn’t take up much screen time.
Of course, we know a plot point must return Greystoke to his native grounds. It involves bad guy Leon Rom (Christoph Waltz) collecting some precious diamonds from a tribe led by a Chief (Djimon Hounsou). In exchange for the stones, the Chief only wants Tarzan in return. You see – our title character had a run-in with the Chief’s only son years ago.
To the jungle we go with lots of CG animals that look fine, though maybe not quite as exquisite as in TheJungleBook or the revamped Apes franchise. Joining Big T on the adventure are his wife and American envoy George Washington Williams (Samuel L. Jackson).
The second welcome choice here is Robbie, who’s radiance has permiated everything she’s been in. Beyond her top-notch work, the screenwriters succeed in making her more than a Damsel in a White Dress. She’s tough, feisty, funny, and equal to her man.
Tarantino stalwarts Waltz and Jackson give you pretty much what you’d expect. Jackson gets a couple decent one-liners and Waltz could play the conniving villain role in his sleep (and has with superior writing). Skarsgard’s performance will be remembered more for his muscle tone and vine swinging than much else (he looks the part though).
Even though this legend has been around forever, you may find yourself recalling this year’s live-action version of Kipling’s JungleBook from time to time and not just because of the CG. A scene where elephants are bowed to and treated as mystical creatures? Check. Overtones of colonialism that the filmmakers don’t really know how to deal with? Little bit. That said, we’ve got hungry hippos in Tarzan and they weren’t in Jon Favreau’s movie!
So while this may feel a bit familiar, the aforementioned pluses make this frequent return to this legend an entertaining enough time.
We have seen numerous takes on the raunchy wedding comedy and MikeandDaveNeedWeddingDates is, well, another one. A grouping of actors who’ve done the genre in considerably better work before on film and television, the pic is stale and uninspired. It even wastes its gorgeous Hawaiian locale in a way that ForgettingSarahMarshall didn’t.
The title characters are actual people – the Stangle Brothers – whose life story inspired the events that take place here. Dave (Zac Efron) and Mike (Adam DeVine) lead an aimless and hard partying existence while running a liquor business. We’re not really shown many of their wild exploits. In fact, Dave seems like a somewhat well-adjusted and dull dude. Mike, with DeVine’s performance unsuccessfully attempting to ape a younger Jack Black, is more of an annoyance.
Brothers Stangle are called in by mom and dad when their little sister Jeanie (the coolly named Sugar Lyn Beard) is about to tie the knot. They’re asked to bring dates with the idea that they’ll be less prone to make a scene. So they put out an ad on social media which catches fire, culminating with appearing on Wendy Williams’s show.
When they finally choose their matches, it’s the equally aimless and wild duo of Alice (Anna Kendrick) and Tatiana (Aubrey Plaza). The girls are in it for the free vacay with Alice having the additional motivation of getting over recently being left at the altar. They try to act like good girls but bad things happen across the ocean.
What follows is a buffet of sex and drugs humor that does precious little to differentiate itself from other bawdy buffets we’ve been served up before. One central theme – “Hey, these gals are just as self-absorbed as the dudes!” – doesn’t add much. Like their male counterparts, Kendrick and Plaza have shined in superior material but can’t elevate this stuff. I don’t know what actually occurred or not in this story that bills itself as “sort of” true. I do know that I probably wouldn’t have wanted to hang with the real people and know for sure there’s not enough laughter in the 99 minutes watching others play them.
The New York Film Festival has begun and that means a fresh round of Oscar Watch posts will be coming your way over the next couple of weeks. For the first time in the fest’s history, a documentary kicked off the proceedings and it’s a very high-profile one.
Ana DuVernay’s 13th (named after the 13th amendment) explores issues of race relations in America over history. This is the director’s first effort since Selma. Early critical reaction from its screening indicate this is a powerful and emotional experience. And most viewers won’t have to wait long at all to view it as it premieres on Netflix a week from today (Friday, October 7).
Since the announcement of the project, 13th has been seen as a front-runner for Best Documentary at the Oscars. The buzz emanating from the Big Apple confirms that status. A more unknown question is whether this documentary expands outside of that category and becomes a player in Best Picture. To do so, it’ll need to make history as no doc has ever received a nod in the biggest race of all.
So for those making their list for probable Best Pic nominees, it’s best to leave 13th out at the time being. Yet it proved yesterday that it’s the one to beat in the Documentary Feature category.
It’s my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories coming your way and there has been some news since last Thursday. It was officially confirmed that Martin Scorsese’s passion project Silence will be released in December in time for awards consideration (maybe we’ll finally get a trailer soon!). There were trailers released for some high-profile contenders: Denzel Washington’s Fences and Mike Mills’s 20th Century Women.
As we do every week, I’ll rank my top 25 contenders for Best Picture along with top 15 for the directing, acting, and screenplay races (you can also see the movement from the previous week’s ranking to now).
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 4)
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
7. Moonlight (PR: 6)
8. Loving (PR: 8)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Jackie (PR: 11)
11. Arrival (PR: 12)
12. Sully (PR: 13)
13. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
14. Hell or High Water (PR: 16)
15. Live by Night (PR: 14)
16. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 15)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 19)
18. 20th Century Women (PR: 17)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 21)
20. Passengers (PR: 25)
21. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Founder (PR: 22)
23. Allied (PR: 18)
24. The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
Collateral Beauty
Hacksaw Ridge
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
7. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)
10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
11. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
12. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)
14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Robert Zemeckis, Allied
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 9)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
10. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 12)
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)
13. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 8)
14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
11. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)
12. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
14. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Sally Field, My Name is Doris (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Una
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)
7. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)
8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
9. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 10)
10. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)
11. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)
12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 13)
13. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
14. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
4. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)
8. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 11)
10. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
11. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 9)
12. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
13. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 10)
14. Sienna Miller, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty
Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La Land Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Jackie (PR: 4)
5. Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
8. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
9. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)
10. The Lobster (PR: 8)
11. Zootopia (PR: 11)
12. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
13. Gold (PR: 12)
14. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Collateral Beauty
Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Lion (PR: 4)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Elle (PR: 11)
9. Sully (PR: 8)
10. Love & Friendship (PR: 12)
11. Indignation (PR: 13)
12. The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)
13. Live by Night (PR: 9)
14. The Jungle Book (PR: 15)
15. A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denial
And that’ll do it for the weekly Oscar predictions! Check back next week, folks…
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