Box Office Predictions: September 16-18

The third weekend of September brings us four new films (just as last weekend did) and they are: horror sequel Blair Witch, rom com three-quel Bridget Jones’s Baby, Oliver Stone’s political thriller Snowden, and faith-based concert documentary Hillsong – Let Hope Rise. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

As I see it, Bridget Jones’s Baby looks like it’ll easily place third for the weekend – unless Snowden does considerably better than my estimate. However, I have Snowden pretty far behind in fourth.

Hillsong is unpredictable (it doesn’t help that I don’t have a screen count). I have it in eighth place at $3 million.

The battle for #1 could be one to watch. My estimate for Blair Witch puts it there, but I expect Sully to experience a rather smallish decline. If Witch comes in below my prognosis, the Clint Eastwood/Tom Hanks could land in first for the second frame.

As for current #2 When the Bough Breaks, I look for it to place fifth with a hefty decline.

Here’s how the blog readers feel about my newcomer predictions:

Blair Witch: 36% Too High, 33% Just About Right, 31% Too Low

Bridget Jones’s Baby: 51% Too Low, 32% Just About Right, 17% Too High

Snowden: 71% Too Low, 23% Just About Right, 6% Too High

**I made my Hillsong prediction just this evening, so no real data on that one yet.

And with that, a top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Blair Witch

Predicted Gross: $27.4 million

2. Sully

Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)

3. Bridget Jones’s Baby

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million

4. Snowden

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

5. When the Bough Breaks

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 61%)

Box Office Results (September 9-11)

Sully had a terrific debut over the weekend with $35 million – good for the fifth highest September opening ever and coming in above my $28.5M estimate. It also marks Tom Hanks’s largest live-action premiere in seven years. With an A Cinemascore grade, expect Sully to have sturdy legs moving forward.

The news wasn’t as good for When the Bough Breaks, which made $14.2 million for runner-up status. I was way higher with $22.7M. The romantic thriller couldn’t match the September openings of similarly themed 2014 and 2015 pics – No Good Deed and The Perfect Guy. That said, Bough‘s price tag is only a reported $10 million so a tidy profit is in order for studio Screen Gems.

Don’t Breathe, as expected, dropped to third after two weeks on top with $8.2 million – in line with my $7.5M forecast for a total of $66M. Suicide Squad was fourth with $5.7 million (I predicted $5.1M) for a $307M tally.

Fifth place belonged to Belgian animated entry The Wild Life and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It earned $3.3 million (I went with $3.2M) for a lackluster beginning.

Kubo and the Two Strings was sixth, also at $3.3 million (I said $3.8M) to bring its gross to $40M.

Last and least, Kate Beckinsale’s horror flick The Disappointments Room bombed in a 17th place showing with just $1.4 million. I was a bit more generous at $2.3M.

And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Hillsong – Let Hope Rise Box Office Prediction

BLOGGER’S Update: (09-12-16, 8:24pm) It’s just been revealed that Hillsong will only be released on approximately 815 screens. This lowers my projection to $3 million dollars.

This Friday, the faith based concert film Hillsong – Let Hope Rise hits theaters and will try to attract music loving Christian moviegoers. The documentary chronicles the Australian band’s story as they’ve sold millions of albums since their formation in 1998. It was originally scheduled to be released over a year ago, but was pushed back at least twice due to the bankruptcy of its studio.

Yes, I Googled all of this information as Hillsong is not a group I’m personally familiar with. My uncertainty for its box office prognosis is on a couple of levels. I don’t have a screen count for it yet, most importantly. The difference between 800 theaters or 2000 could greatly fluctuate my estimate (I’ll reserve the right to change this when it is released). Also, faith based audiences have been known to cause pictures to greatly exceed expectations.

So… guess work, folks! As it stands now, I’ll say Hillsong reaches somewhere between $4-6 million and we’ll see how it goes…

Hillsong – Let Hope Rise opening weekend prediction: $3 million (Updated – see above)

For my Blair Witch prediction, click here:

Blair Witch Box Office Prediction

For my Bridget Jones’s Baby prediction, click here:

Bridget Jones’s Baby Box Office Prediction

For my Snowden prediction, click here:

Snowden Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch: A Monster Calls

Director J.A. Bayona’s name may not be too familiar yet with the moviegoing public. At least not yet. His two previous movies were acclaimed 2007 horror pic The Orphanage and 2012’s Tsunami drama The Impossible, which earned Naomi Watts a Best Actress nomination. His name ID will surely increase soon as he’s about to take on the sequel to last summer’s biggest blockbuster, Jurassic World. Or perhaps even sooner with A Monster Calls, his fantasy tearjerker which opens December 23rd statewide and screened at the Toronto Film Festival this weekend.

It’s been reported that Monster received a rapturous audience ovation after its premiere. Based on a 2011 bestseller by its author Patrick Ness, the film stars Sigourney Weaver, Felicity Jones, newcomer Lewis MacDougall, and the voice of Liam Neeson as the calling title character. Buzz from Toronto suggests this is a weepie crowd pleaser that deals with serious themes such as parental loss coupled with more fantastical elements.

Not all critics seemed to fall for it with some calling it heavy handed. However, if Monster can break through at the box office, it could find itself with some Oscar talk in Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay. Certain technical category nods seem more likely. And Felicity Jones is said to be a highlight. She’s the It Girl of Fall 2016, appearing in this, Inferno alongside Tom Hanks, and headlining a little something called Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. Her inclusion in Supporting Actress for this one is not out of the question.

As Toronto continues, look for more Oscar Watch posts.

Oscar Watch: A United Kingdom

Amma Asante’s interracial romantic drama A United Kingdom has screened at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend. The pic tells the true life story of the relationship between an African prince (David Oyelowo) and a London woman (Rosamund Pike) some seven decades ago.

Initial critical reaction has mostly been positive, but not to the level where Academy attention seems realistic. The lead performers have been on the radar screen of Oscar voters just two years ago when Pike nabbed a nomination for Gone Girl and Oyelowo surprisingly missed out on a nod for Selma.

If Kingdom somehow breaks through at the box office, the dynamic could change. However, that looks doubtful at this juncture. In fact, awards voters are far more likely to turn their attention to Jeff Nichols’ Loving, another mixed race drama that has received more buzz.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue as more Toronto hopefuls screen…

Oscar Watch: Lion

Over the weekend, the Toronto Film Festival screenings have dampened the hopes of some pictures to garner Oscar attention, most notably Ewan McGregor’s American Pastoral and Oliver Stone’s Snowden. Yet they can bolster the chances of others and that appears to be the case with Lion.

The pic tells the true life tale of a young Indian boy who is separated from his family in the mid 1980s and uses the resources of Google Earth to relocate them 25 years later. First time director Garth Davis is behind the camera and the film is produced by the Weinstein Company, whose founder Harvey has a knack for Oscar campaigning. Due to the participation of its lead Dev Patel and the geographic location, some early reviews have drawn comparisons to Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire, which won the big prize eight years ago.

While not all critical notices have been raves, Lion has been singled out as an inspiring crowd pleaser that the Academy could warm to. A Best Picture nod seems in reach and that could extend to Davis and Luke Davies for his Adapted Screenplay. As for the performers, Patel seems most likely to receive recognition. It isn’t 100% certain whether he will be campaigned for in lead Actor or Supporting. If he goes lead, there’s a chance that young Sunny Pawar (playing Patel’s character during the first hour) could get some buzz. Rooney Mara and especially Nicole Kidman could be factors in Supporting Actress.

My Oscar Watch will continue as Toronto does…

Oscar Watch: Snowden

Oliver Stone has won two Best Director Oscars for 1986’s Platoon and 1989’s Born on the Fourth of July. He’s received little love from the Academy for the past two decades and his new true life political thriller Snowden hits screen next weekend.

It screened at the Toronto Film Festival this weekend. The verdict? Look for the lack of Oscar attention to continue. Some reviews marked it as a return to form for Mr. Stone, but others weren’t impressed. The tale of CIA analyst Edward Snowden (Joseph Gordon Levitt) had originally been scheduled to open late last year before being delayed.

The buzz is muted enough that I don’t expect any nominations for it, including its director, lead, and supporting cast that includes Shailene Woodley, Melissa Leo, Tom Wilkinson, Zachary Quinto, and Nicolas Cage.

As the Toronto Festival rolls along, so will my Oscar Watch posts.

Oscar Watch: American Pastoral

The Toronto Film Festival, arriving just days after Venice and Telluride, will continue to shape this year’s Oscar race. Entries of past years have gone onto see numerous nominations. Just last year, half of the eventual Best Picture nominees played up north including the winner Spotlight. And there were a number of films that featured acting nominees.

My Oscar Watch coverage of Toronto begins with American Pastoral, Ewan McGregor’s directorial debut based on Philip Roth’s crime drama novel. It’s been on the radar screen of awards prognosticators for some time. McGregor also stars alongside previous winner Jennifer Connelly and Dakota Fanning.

In my first edition of weekly Academy predictions on Thursday, I listed Pastoral at #9 in the Picture race. The buzz coming from Toronto based on its screenings has changed that dynamic and not for the better. The pic received a number of mediocre reviews and it looks now as if Pastoral will be on the outside looking in for Oscar recognition. Its actors, too, are unlikely to find themselves in contention.

I’ll have the Oscar Watch posts continuing throughout the day… And throughout the festival.

Sully Movie Review

Sully is the most feel good movie in recent memory that’s likely to make you feel woefully inadequate the next time you miss the mark parallel parking. After all, it tells the remarkable story of Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger (Tom Hanks), who became an American hero after completing an improbable water landing on the Hudson River in January 2009.

Clint Eastwood’s latest delves deeper into a story that inspired millions some seven and a half years ago. It also reminds us of that not so distant period when the economy had recently plummeted and the sight of an aircraft off course in New York City was a terrifying sight. While Sully and his trusty co-pilot Jeff (Aaron Eckhart) are confident that their reaction to a bird strike that caused engine failure on takeoff was correct, the NTSB is not so sure.

The film cuts back and forth between the pilots sitting in after the crash (or water landing as Sully insists it be called since no crash occurred) hearings and brief happenings before the most famous three-minute flight ever. There’s some back story showing a young Sully earnings his wings that somehow felt like unnecessary filler in a tight 96 minute runtime. We also see the title character trying to cope with instant fame in the immediate days following (he wonders into a bar one night where there’s already a drink named after him). And we see glimpses into his married life with Laura Linney in a role where her face is constantly connected to her cell phone. Her husband is stuck in NYC until the investigation’s completion.

We see the United Airways flight from multiple angles – that of the air traffic controller, of citizens in the Big Apple, of the Coast Guard. Most thrillingly, we see the cockpit reaction and split second decisions that had to be made to save 155 lives on board. Though we know the outcome, Eastwood and his editor direct these sequences in a way that generates maximum suspense. Speaking of the director, I was able to spot a subtle Eastwood cameo in a scene where Sully runs through Times Square. Hint: his hit Gran Torino happened to be the #1 movie in America when these events happened.

Hanks has long perfected the Everyman Doing Extraordinary Things role – so much so that we probably take his incredible talent for granted. He does it here again and creates another hero filled with doubts and fears. Sully is also a man who barely gets a moment to comprehend his deeds, with the media and government officials trying to monopolize the aftermath of the “Miracle on the Hudson”. To Captain Sully, he was just doing his job in an unreal set of circumstances. So does the team behind the re-telling of it.

*** (out of four)

Todd’s 2016 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 8th Edition

As readers of my blog may have seen last week, I made my first initial round of Oscar predictions last week. Now… we move onto the next phase. Every Thursday, I will be giving my weekly updated Oscar predictions in the following categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.

When we get into the later part of the year, the list will expand to include other categories. Each Thursday, I will list 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 possibilities for the other races and you’ll be able to track whether the picks go up or down on a weekly basis.

Please note that if I rank something #1 in a certain race, it doesn’t mean I think it’ll win. It means I think its nomination is currently the most probable. The film festival season (especially Toronto) can and probably will alter some of these picks even next week.

Let’s get right to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1) La Land Land

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Silence

4) Fences

5) Moonlight

6) Loving

7) Manchester by the Sea

8) Nocturnal Animals

9) American Pastoral

Other Possibilities:

10) The Birth of a Nation

11) Lion

12) Jackie

13) Arrival

14) 20th Century Women

15) Hidden Figures

16) Sully

17) Passengers

18) Hell or High Water

19) Allied

20) Moana

21) The Founder

22) The Jungle Bok

23) Collateral Beauty

24) Gold

25) Live by Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land

2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Martin Scorsese, Silence

4) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

5) Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

6) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

7) Jeff Nichols, Loving

8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

9) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

10) Denis Villenueve, Arrival

11) Garth Davis, Lion

12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

13) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

14) Pablo Larrain, Jackie

15) Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Denzel Washington, Fences

2) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

3) Joel Edgerton, Loving

4) Michael Keaton, The Founder

5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Other Possibilities:

6) Tom Hanks, Sully

7) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

8) Ryan Gosling, La La Land

9) Dev Patel, Lion

10) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

14) Andrew Garfield, Silence

15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Emma Stone, La La Land

2) Viola Davis, Fences

3) Natalie Portman, Jackie

4) Ruth Negga, Loving

5) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Other Possibilities:

6) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals

7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle

8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

9) Amy Adams, Arrival

10) Rooney Mara, Una

11) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures

12) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers

13) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

14) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

15) Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

2) Liam Neeson, Silence

3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

5) Stephen Henderson, Fences

Other Possibilities:

6) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

8) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This

9) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

10) Timothy Spall, Denial

11) Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

12) Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

13) John Legend, La La Land

14) Aaron Eckhart, Sully

15) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight

3) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals

4) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

5) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Other Possibilities:

6) Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

7) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

8) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation

9) Nicole Kidman, Lion

10) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

11) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan

12) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women

13) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty

14) Margo Martindale, The Hollars

15) Laura Dern, The Founder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Manchester by the Sea

2) Moonlight

3) La La Land

4) Loving

5) Jackie

Other Possibilities:

6) 20th Century Women

7) Hell or High Water

8) The Lobster

9) The Birth of a Nation

10) The Founder

11) Zootopia

12) Gold

13) Passengers

14) Rules Don’t Apply

15) Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Fences

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Nocturnal Animals

4) Silence

5) American Pastoral

Other Possibilities:

6) Lion

7) Hidden Figures

8) Arrival

9) Love & Friendship

10) The Girl on the Train

11) Elle

12) Sully

13) Live by Night

14) Denial

15) The Jungle Book

And that’ll do it for now, folks! My weekly updates will be back next Thursday…

The Boy Next Door Movie Review

Jennifer Lopez is given the role of a lifetime in The Boy Next Door. Make that – role of a Lifetime as this thriller is no different than the guilty pleasure schlock you find on that channel. The difference is that it feels better to watch that kind of material on a couch and far hidden away from the public eye. When big stars (one at least) are involved, it feels cheaper than that occasional junk food excursion into carbon copy TV movie territory.

Lopez is Claire, a recently separated English lit teacher trying to move on with her life with her teenage son (Ian Nelson). Her husband is John Corbett and he’s trying to patch things up after he was caught cheating with his secretary. It’s revealed that Claire discovered her husband’s infidelity via email and that his mistress smelled like chocolate chip cookies. Whether he meant fresh-baked or store-bought is a plot point left dangling for our collective imaginations.

The title character is 19-year-old Noah (Ryan Guzman), a new addition to the neighborhood who’s living with his elderly uncle. His parents are deceased and we see that as a red flag quickly. Same with his love of the subject Claire teaches as they ridiculously discuss Homer’s Iliad. Yeah, it’s painful. On a weekend where the rest of her family is away on a camping trip, Noah successfully seduces her. She immediately realizes it was a mistake the next morning (at least her walk of shame is short, right??). Noah doesn’t see it that way and the boy next door turns into the stalker next door.

There is hardly a moment here where the screenplay doesn’t feel as lazily choreographed as J Lo on her worst day as a “In Living Color” fly girl. There’s the supportive best friend played by the talented Kristen Chenoweth, who should have been anywhere else during the filming of this. We have Kevin being given a serious medical ailment with his allergies. I will give the script reluctant credit for not using that overused cliche in quite the way I anticipated.

Rob Cohen, who started the Fast and Furious and xXx franchises, directs this low-budget enterprise with Lopez producing. Her acting is acceptable, I suppose. Guzman has plenty of moments where he overacts painfully. The screenplay is essentially an hour of finding ways for him to torment Claire and almost expose her for her one night she’d like to forget. None of them are memorable or believable. We are told a video exists of their romantic encounter and that it must be erased from his laptop, pronto!! I couldn’t help but think that any 19-year-old would have backed that thing up like J Lo in 1999 when MTV was playing her videos. With The Boy Next Door, you’ll want to back up an hour and a half of your time if you go down Jenny’s block here.

*1/2 (out of four)

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