Month: January 2016

Short Gets A Big Boost

Last night, the Producers Guild of America bestowed their Best Picture honor and it created yet more confusion as to which movie will emerge victorious come Oscar evening. The PGA’s award went to Adam McKay’s The Big Short and it undoubtedly increases its chance at Academy Award glory exponentially.

Want proof? How’s this? Since the group started naming Best Picture in 1989, it has lined up with the Academy’s winner 19 out of 25 times (or 76% for you math fans). The Oscar and PGA recipients have correctly matched during the last eight years. The last time it didn’t was in 2006 when Little Miss Sunshine won over Academy honoree The Departed.

It’s probably fair to say that The Big Short is now the soft front runner in the race. That designation once belonged to Spotlight, which took home several critics awards precursors. The front runner status then shifted to The Revenant, which is killing it at the box office and was the Golden Globe winner for Best Drama. And now it’s The Big Short. Truth be told, this is a genuine three picture race for Oscar gold and up until yesterday, I had The Big Short running third. The PGA has shifted the paradigm.

The Intern Movie Review

Nancy Meyers brings her brand of comedic drama featuring a strong female character to the screen once again in The Intern. This time it’s Anne Hathaway as Jules, the CEO of a flourishing NYC online fashion company who’s struggling to balance her harried work life with her personal one. The latter includes her stay at home husband (Anders Holm) and little girl. Jules finds someone to assist with that balance in the form of Ben (Robert De Niro). He used to work at a phone book company (an obsolete business) and he’s battling general boredom in his retirement. The 70 year old widower decides to apply for a senior internship with Jules’s company and he’s soon assigned to work directly under her.

The Intern explores the issues of Jules deciding whether or not to hand control of the business over to an outside CEO. There’s also some marital issues at hand and her ongoing frustration with her distant mother, which helps explain some of her own personality quirks. We have Ben’s burgeoning romance with the company’s in house masseuse (Rene Russo). As the over two hour tale unfolds, the pathos level continues to increase as Ben and Jules become closer.

It’s all perfectly pleasant, continually earnest, and sad to say – a little dull. Hathaway’s performance gives her an interesting and strong character to play with, even if her work here comes off a bit mannered occasionally. De Niro is in Mr. Nice Guy mode and he’s just fine, even if this part isn’t exactly challenging in any way.

Frankly, there’s not much else to say here. The Intern can be a little bland but it’s engaging enough to not be a total waste of time. Faint praise, I recognize. If you’ve enjoyed Meyers pics such as What Women Want, Something’s Gotta Give and It’s Complicated, you’ll probably think this is decent.

**1/2 (out of four)

Jane Got a Gun Box Office Prediction

It boasts an acclaimed director with an Oscar winning actress, but next weekend’s Jane Got a Gun seems poised to misfire upon its debut. Gavin O’Connor, maker of Miracle and Warrior, directs this western headlined by Natalie Portman with Joel Edgerton and Ewan McGregor costarring.

The long delayed pic was originally set to open in the summer of 2014, then delayed to 2015, and is now finally rolling out in the doldrums of January. Marketing for it has been low-key and I feel part of its struggle could be that audiences just aren’t aware of its existence. Added to that, female driven westerns are historically not a commercially viable genre (see Bad Girls, The Quick and the Dead).

Jane Got a Gun, while having a relatively small $25 million budget, could have trouble grossing half that number overall. I don’t even think this reaches $5 million in its opening.

  • bloggers note: upon word this is only opening on 550 screens, I’m downgrading this prediction from $3.4M to $1.7M

Jane Got a Gun opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million

For my Kung Fu Panda 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/20/kung-fu-panda-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Fifty Shades of Black prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/fifty-shades-of-black-box-office-prediction/

For my The Finest Hours prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/the-finest-hours-box-office-prediction/

The Finest Hours Box Office Prediction

Disney hopes to bring audiences in next weekend with the true life disaster pic The Finest Hours, but I have a feeling that choppy waters could be ahead. The 1950s set tale of a Coast Guard rescue mission comes with a reported $80 million budget and stars Chris Pine, Casey Affleck, Ben Foster, and Eric Bana. Craig Gillespie, who last worked with the Mouse Factory on the commercially disappointing Million Dollar Arm, is behind the camera.

The studio probably hopes that Hours can appeal to adult viewers looking for an old fasioned adventure film, but trailers and TV spots haven’t been too impressive. Early reviews have been pretty underwhelming to boot. I believe this may struggle to even reach double digits, but I’ll predict it clocks in just past that for a letdown of a debut.

The Finest Hours opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million

For my Kung Fu Panda 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/20/kung-fu-panda-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Fifty Shades of Black prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/fifty-shades-of-black-box-office-prediction/

For my Jane Got a Gun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/jane-got-a-gun-box-office-prediction/

Fifty Shades of Black Box Office Prediction

Reteaming with his same cowriter and director from the two A Haunted House pics from 2013 and 2014, Marlon Wayans is back in spoof territory with Fifty Shades of Black, out next weekend. In case you couldn’t tell, the timely sendup satirizes last year’s smash hit Fifty Shades of Grey, which debuted to $85 million over Valentine’s Day 2015. Kali Hawk, Mike Epps, Jane Seymour, and Fred Williard costar.

Three years ago in January, the aforementioned A Haunted House surprised predictors with an $18.1 million debut and a $40 million overall gross. Its 2014 sequel didn’t fare nearly as well with just an $8.8 opening and $17 million eventual take. What could assist Black is the timeliness of the film it’s making fun of.

Still, I’m not convinced that means it tops what Marlon and company did with the first House. I’ll project that Black debuts in the mid teens before what should likely be a quick fadeout.

Fifty Shades of Black opening weekend prediction: $16 million

For my Kung Fu Panda 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/20/kung-fu-panda-3-box-office-prediction/

For my The Finest Hours prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/the-finest-hours-box-office-prediction/

For my Jane Got a Gun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/jane-got-a-gun-box-office-prediction/

Kung Fu Panda 3 Box Office Prediction

Jack Black is back kicking it again as Po in Dreamworks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 3, out next weekend. The threequel comes nearly five years after the second installment with a slew of famous faces voicing characters in the martial arts comedy toon. They include Angelina Jolie Pitt, Dustin Hoffman, Lucy Liu, Jackie Chan, Seth Rogen, Bryan Cranston, Kate Hudson, J.K. Simmons, and David Cross.

In 2008, the original Panda chopped its way to a fabulous $60 million opening on its way to a $215 million domestic haul. The inevitable 2011 sequel couldn’t quite match that performance with a $47 million premiere and $165 million take. Part 3, unlike its two predecessors, isn’t debuting in the summer so competition is less steep. That said, the five year old layover could lead to slightly dwindling returns once again.

Kung Fu Panda 3 will almost undoubtedly set one record: biggest animated opening of all time in January (it only needs to top the $19.4 million accomplished by The Nut Job two years ago). It should double that at least, but I’ll predict it has the lowest opening of the trio.

Kung Fu Panda 3 opening weekend prediction: $41.7 million

For my Fifty Shades of Black prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/fifty-shades-of-black-box-office-prediction/

For my The Finest Hours prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/the-finest-hours-box-office-prediction/

For my Jane Got a Gun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/jane-got-a-gun-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: January 22-24

Three new titles open Friday to challenge Ride Along 2, The Revenant, and Star Wars at the box office: Robert De Niro/Zac Efron comedy Dirty Grandpa, British horror pic The Boy, and YA thriller The 5th Wave. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/14/dirty-grandpa-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/15/the-boy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/14/the-5th-wave-box-office-prediction/

Any one of these newbies (especially Grandpa or The Boy in my view) could over perform, but as predicted I have this trio all debuting in the $11-$14 million range. I am also speculating that current champ Ride Along 2 (which didn’t match the gross of its predecessor) is likely to dip over 50%. That should leave The Revenant (fresh off receiving the most Oscar nominations) in a position to get to #1 after two weeks in the runner up position and Star Wars in a position to potentially remain in third.

And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Revenant

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

2. Ride Along 2

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Dirty Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

5. The Boy

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

6. The 5th Wave

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

Box Office Results (January 15-17)

As expected, the return of Kevin Hart and Ice Cube in Ride Along 2 debuted atop the charts, finally knocking off Star Wars. Yet it didn’t earn quite as much as its predecessor did on the same weekend two years ago. The sequel posted $35.2 million, under my $45.5M prediction. Over the four day MLK day, it’s made $41M while the original made over $48M in 2014.

After a dozen Oscar nods, The Revenant held up remarkably well with $31.7 million, skyrocketing past my $21.4M estimate. Leo and the Bear clearly benefited immensely from the Academy buzz and its terrific total stands at $95M.

Star Wars finally fell closer to Earth after four weeks on top with $26.3 million (I said $23.9M) and its record setting total is at $858M.

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi had a so-so start with $16.1 million for fourth place, well under my kind $29.3M projection. Its 4 day MLK haul: $19.2M. Not bad, but for a film that generated heavy publicity, it’s a bit underwhelming.

Daddy’s Home was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It made $9.5 million and sits at $131M.

The animated Arctic tale Norm of the North was sixth, premiering with a weak $6.8 million compared to my $9.3 estimate. Its 4 day MLK take? $9.3 million (of course).

And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Until next time…

The Big Short Movie Review

There’s a fine line between comedy and tragedy and it’s explored in sometimes serious and often darkly funny detail in Adam McKay’s The Big Short. Based on Michael Lewis’s book detailing the people who correctly predicted the housing bubble that burst wide open in 2008, Short chronicles their stories while condemning so many who looked the other way. Prior to this, director McKay has been solely known for Will Ferrell comedies and some of them (The Other Guys and even Anchorman 2) nibbled around the edges with the subject of corporate greed. With this film, McKay manages to balance a complex issue foreign to most viewers while infusing it with much needed humor. It helps because without it, we might just want to scream at the screen for two hours and that still happens from time to time.

Michael Burry (Christian Bale) is a highly eccentric hedge fund honcho who figures out that something is majorly wrong with our nation’s housing market about three years before the foundation totally collapses. His timely discoveries are met with skepticism from nearly all corners. The exceptions are from Ryan Gosling’s bond salesman, Steve Carell’s unhappy Wall Street hedge fund manager, and a duo (John Magaro and Finn Wittlock) trying to take their fledgling business into the NYC scene. They all come to believe Burry’s siren calls and they all try to maneuver their way to profit off it. There are no real heroes here, but they really have no idea at first just how corrupt the system is that’s creating the impending doom.

McKay realizes that the many Wall Street technical terms are, frankly, confusing as hell. In a nice stroke, he enlists celebrities like The Wolf of Wall Street ingenue Margot Robbie and others to creatively explain what we are witnessing. It helps, but the director and his cowriter Charles Randolph delve into a deeper truth: no one really understands what’s happening or are willing to own up to it while billions of dollars line the pockets of many. Meanwhile, scores of people believe they can actually afford the pretty home they dwell in.

The Big Short hearkens back to 1970s filmmaking in certain manners. It’s political, has a point of view, and isn’t afraid to show it. If you felt McKay’s annoyance at the elite crowd in those Ferrell pics, this opens up an unmistakable furious floodgate. He’s enlisted a stable of talented performers to tell the tale. In particular, Bale continues to demonstrate his ability to disappear into a role while Carell continues to show his dramatic abilities are just as strong as his comedic ones. Brad Pitt also turns up as an ex banker who helps uncover the fraud. The screenplay provides many guffaws, but this is not a “comedy”, no matter what the awards shows portend. And a well deserved shout out goes to Hank Corwin, the picture’s editor who does a masterful job.

You’ll likely cringe while you’re laughing and that’s the way McKay wants it. The biggest scare is that this effort doesn’t pretend like the crisis explained here won’t occur once again. According to The Big Short, believe it won’t at your own risk and don’t bet the house on it.

***1/2 (out of four)

Todd’s Ten Songs of the Week: January 17 Edition

And now for a new feature on the blog that I’ll try to post weekly on every Sunday. The concept is simple – I’m giving you ten songs to listen to for your musical enjoyment. Those who know me obviously know I’m a huge movie buff, but I’m also a major music lover.

For this initial post, I cannot help but make some track suggestions from the great David Bowie. Most of us know his many hits but for this evening, I’m selecting ten that perhaps you don’t know. Do yourself a favor and do what I’ve found myself doing this week – just select a Bowie album and let it rip. It’s worth it to truly appreciate his one of a kind genius.

Here we go:

“Always Crashing in the Same Car” from Low (1977)

“Win” from Young Americans (1975)

“Beauty and the Beast” from Heroes (1977)

http://youtu.be/l4fFL4uU_RE

“Word on a Wing” from Station to Station (1976)

http://youtu.be/5PYvqa7DFN

“Dirty Boys” from The Next Day (2013)

http://youtu.be/mQA_qFeahtc

“New Killer Star” from Reality (2003)

“DJ” from Lodger (1979)

http://youtu.be/QgPUxjQOk-w

“Everything’s Alright” from Pinups (1973)

http://youtu.be/yytTqi2CNvE

“No Control” from Outside (1995)

http://youtu.be/JKz_YJhQtzs

“I Can’t Give Everything Away” from Blackstar (2016)

And there you have it – DJ Todd shall return next weekend!

Todd’s 2015 Oscar Winner Predictions: Round 1

It’s been two days since the Oscar nominations came out, allowing some time to pass to digest what and who is being recognized. After numerous posts prognosticating the nominations, we now arrive at this question: What Will Win??

Today brings my initial round of guesses on the movies and performers that I believe will get their gold statues. I will definitely have a second and final round posted probably two to three days before the February ceremony.

Let’s get to it:

BEST PICTURE

First off, there are four selections that basically should be happy with the nomination: Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Martian, and Room. Mad Max: Fury Road is a major long shot. That leaves a three picture race and indeed it is. Between The Big Short, The Revenant, and Spotlight – this is truly a competitive category this time around. I’m currently giving the ever so slight edge to Spotlight, which has been considered the soft front runner for a while now. Be warned though: the other two are hot on its heels.

PREDICTED WINNER: Spotlight

BEST DIRECTOR

Tom McCarthy’s work in Spotlight could be honored with outside chances for Adam McKay (The Big Short) or George Miller (Mad Max). Lenny Abrahamson’s surprise nomination for Room succeeded in screwing up people’s predictions. He has no chance to win. Yet I’ll go with the Academy honoring Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s direction in The Revenant, just one year after he received the prize for Birdman.

PREDICTED WINNER: Inarritu

BEST ACTOR

We will make this simple: it appears that Leonardo DiCaprio is finally going to win a statue for The Revenant. He is the very heavy favorite and if he doesn’t emerge victorious, it would probably constitute the largest upset of the evening.

PREDICTED WINNER: DiCaprio

BEST ACTRESS

Like lead Actor, there is a front runner here with Brie Larson in Room. Unlike Actor, the possibility for an upset is real with both Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) and Saoirse Ronan. I’ll stick with Larson though. Cate Blanchett (Carol) and Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) seem like non factors.

PREDICTED WINNER: Larson

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This was an incredibly difficult category to predict with about 12 performances in the running. Now that we know the nominees, this is a race ripe for an upset. Any of the five – Christian Bale (The Big Short), Tom Hardy (The Revenant), Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), Sylvester Stallone (Creed) – are feasible recipients. Rylance has won some precursors, but like the Golden Globes, I’ll project that sentimentality wins out with Stallone standing center stage.

PREDICTED WINNER: Stallone

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

No major front runner here but Alicia Vikander had a great year with another heralded role in Ex Machina. I’ll predict her work in The Danish Girl eeks out a win over Rooney Mara (Carol), Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Globes winner Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), and Rachel McAdams (Spotlight).

PREDICTED WINNER: Vikander

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Short and sweet here – Spotlight is the heavy front runner here and I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t win here. I’m much more confident in predicting a victory for it here than in Picture.

PREDICTED WINNER: Spotlight

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Martian or Room have outside shots, but this looks like a win for The Big Short.

PREDICTED WINNER: The Big Short

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Anomalisa has its hardcore fans, but Pixar’s Inside Out is the big favorite.

PREDICTED WINNER: Inside Out

BEST FOREIGN FILM

Easy pick. Son of Saul is a huge front runner. Mustang is the only completion.

PREDICTED WINNER: Son of Saul

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Amy, chronicling the career of the late singer Amy Winehouse, is the favorite. For now, however, I’m going with an upset pick in the form of Cartel Land.

PREDICTED WINNER: Cartel Land

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The legendary John Williams could be in the running for his latest Star Wars score, but I’ll predict the Academy honors another legend: Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight.

PREDICTED WINNER: The Hateful Eight

http://youtu.be/6_UI1GzaWv0

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Was very surprised to see “See You Again” from Furious 7 snubbed. To me, that would have been the main competition for “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground, performed by Lady Gaga.

PREDICTED WINNER: “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground

BEST SOUND EDITING

I believe these sound categories will come down to a battle between Mad Max and Star Wars, with The Revenant as a spoiler. For now, I’m splitting the difference.

PREDICTED WINNER: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST SOUND MIXING

See above.

PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Once again, I see this as a contest between Chewbacca and Max. I’ll give Max the slight edge.

PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

This is another tough one with Mad Max maintaining a small edge over The Revenant and The Martian.

PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Hateful Eight stands a chance here, as does Mad Max. However, I believe Emmanuel Lubezki will take home his third Oscar in a row for The Revenant.

PREDICTED WINNER: The Revenant

BEST EDITING

This race often matches Picture and could here with Spotlight. The Big Short, Mad Max, and The Revenant are in the mix. This is practically a coin flip for me right now so don’t be shocked if this changes.

PREDICTED WINNER: The Big Short

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Only three nominees here and Mad Max and The Revenant are likely the only two winner possibilities.

PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Sandy Powell could split her own vote between Carol and Cinderella. Mad Max and The Danish Girl are in the running, but I’ll go with Powell and her work in Carol.

PREDICTED WINNER: Carol

http://youtu.be/H4z7Px68ywk

And there you have it! My first Oscar winner predictions.