Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 25th Edition

Merry Christmas, loyal blog readers! As you may know, I am know providing weekly Oscar predictions in all the categories with the exception of Foreign, Documentary, and Animated Short Subject as we draw closer to the actual nominations being released in January. Each week you can read what’s changed and the altering of ranking provisions for what and who I believe will get nods for the best of 2015.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Room (+1)
  3. Carol (+2)
  4. The Revenant (-2)
  5. The Big Short (+4)
  6. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
  7. The Martian (-1)
  8. Brooklyn (-4)
  9. Bridge of Spies (-1)

Other Possibilities:

10. Inside Out (No Change)

11. Straight Outta Compton (+8)

12. The Hateful Eight (-1)

13. Beasts of No Nation (+4)

14. Trumbo (-1)

15. Creed (+5)

16. Steve Jobs (+2)

17. Son of Saul (-3)

18. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-6)

19. Sicario (-3)

20. The Danish Girl (-5)

DROPPED OUT: Joy, Love and Mercy, Anomalisa

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
  2. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
  3. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (-1)
  4. Ridley Scott, The Martian (No Change)
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (+1)

7. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+4)

8. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (-2)

9. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (+1)

10. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-1)

11. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (+5)

12. Ryan Coogler, Creed (+5)

13. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (-1)

14. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-6)

15. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)

DROPPED OUT: Jay Roach (Trumbo), Danny Boyle (Steve Jobs), Tom Hooper (The Danish Girl)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
  2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (No Change)
  3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
  4. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (No Change)
  5. Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (-1)

7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)

8. Steve Carell, The Big Short (+4)

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (-1)

10. Michael Caine, Youth (-2)

11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (+2)

12. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (-2)

13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (-2)

WHAT’S CHANGED – IN: Damon. OUT: Depp.

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
  4. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (+1)
  5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)

7. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (+1)

8. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)

9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (-2)

DROPPED OUT: Carey Mulligan (Suffragette), Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van), Lily Tomlin (Grandma)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  2. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (+3)
  3. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (+1)
  4. Christian Bale, The Big Short (+5)
  5. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (No Change)

7. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (-4)

8. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (-1)

9. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (-1)

10. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (+1)

11. Jacob Tremblay, Room (-1)

WHAT’S CHANGED – IN: Bale. OUT: Dano.

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
  2. Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
  3. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
  4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (-1)
  5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jane Fonda, Youth (+1)

7. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (-1)

8. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (No Change)

9. Joan Allen, Room (+1)

10. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (-1)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Inside Out (No Change)
  3. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  4. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  5. Ex Machina (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Straight Outta Compton (+5)

7. 99 Homes (+1)

8. Son of Saul (-2)

9. Love and Mercy (-4)

10. Sicario (-1)

11. Youth (+1)

DROPPED OUT: Mad Max: Fury Road (in Adapted Screenplay category), Joy, Trainwreck

WHAT’S CHANGED – IN: Ex Machina. OUT: Love and Mercy.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Carol (+2)
  2. The Big Short (+2)
  3. Room (-2)
  4. Steve Jobs (+1)
  5. Brooklyn (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (No Change)

7. Beasts of No Nation (+2)

8. Trumbo (-1)

9. The Revenant (-1)

10. Anomalisa (No Change)

11. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Unranked)

12. The Danish Girl (-1)

13. Creed (Previously Unranked)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Animated Feature

  1. Inside Out (No Change)
  2. Anomalisa (No Change)
  3. Kahlil Gobran’s The Prophet (No Change)
  4. Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
  5. The Peanuts Movie (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Good Dinosaur (-1)

7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)

DROPPED OUT: Home

WHAT’S CHANGED – IN: The Peanuts Movie. OUT: The Good Dinosaur.

Best Cinematography

  1. The Revenant (+1)
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
  3. The Hateful Eight (-2)
  4. Sicario (+1)
  5. Son of Saul (Previously Unranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (-2)

7. Carol (-1)

8. Bridge of Spies (-1)

9. In the Heart of the Sea (Previously Unranked)

DROPPED OUT: The Danish Girl

WHAT’S CHANGED – IN: Son of Saul. OUT: The Martian

Best Production Design

  1. Carol (No Change)
  2. The Danish Girl (No Change)
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  4. Brooklyn (+3)
  5. Bridge of Spies (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cinderella (-2)

7. The Hateful Eight (+2)

8. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+2)

9. The Revenant (-3)

10. MacBeth (+1)

11. The Martian (-3)

WHAT’S CHANGED – IN: Brooklyn. OUT: Cinderella.

Best Editing

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  3. The Big Short (+1)
  4. The Revenant (-1)
  5. Steve Jobs (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (+1)

7. Bridge of Spies (+1)

8. The Hateful Eight (-2)

9. Room (No Change)

10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)

Best Costume Design

  1. The Danish Girl (+3)
  2. Carol (-1)
  3. Cinderella (-1)
  4. Brooklyn (-1)
  5. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Suffragette (+1)

7. The Hateful Eight (+2)

8. Far from the Madding Crowd (-3)

9. MacBeth (+1)

10. The Revenant (Previously Unranked)

DROPPED OUT: Trumbo

WHAT’S CHANGED – IN: Mad Max: Fury Road. OUT: Far from the Madding Crowd.

Best Makeup and Hairsyling

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (+3)
  2. Carol (No Change)
  3. The Danish Girl (-2)

Other Possibilities:

4. Black Mass (+1)

5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-2)

6. The Revenant (+2)

7. Mr. Holmes (Previously Unranked)

DROPPED OUT: Pan, The Hateful Eight

WHAT’S CHANGED – IN: Mad Max: Fury Road. OUT: Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Best Visual Effects

  1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+2)
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
  3. The Martian (-1)
  4. Jurassic World (No Change)
  5. In the Heart of the Sea (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Walk (-1)

7. The Revenant (-1)

8. Ex Machina No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: In the Heart of the Sea. OUT: The Walk.

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+2)
  3. The Revenant (-1)
  4. The Martian (-1)
  5. The Hateful Eight (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario (-1)

7. In the Heart of the Sea (+1)

8. Jurassic World (-2)

Best Sound Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (No Change)
  3. The Martian (No Change)
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
  5. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario (No Change)

7. The Hateful Eight (No Change)

8. Jurassic World (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Original Score

  1. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  2. Bridge of Spies (+5)
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
  4. Carol (-2)
  5. The Danish Girl (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spotlight (-3)

7. Mad Max: Fury Road (+3)

8. Steve Jobs (Previously Unranked)

9. Inside Out (Previously Unranked)

10. The Revenant (-4)

DROPPED OUT: Sicario, Brooklyn, Southpaw

WHAT’S CHANGED – IN: Bridge of Spies. OUT: Spotlight.

Best Original Song

  1. “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
  2. “So Long” from Concussion (+6)
  3. “See You Again” from Furious 7 (-1)
  4. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (+1)
  5. “Simple Song #3” from Youth (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-3)

7. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (-3)

8. “I’ll See You In My Dreams” from I’ll See You In My Dreams (Previously Unranked)

DROPPED OUT: “One Kind of Love” from Love and Mercy

WHAT’S CHANGED – IN: “So Long” and “Simple Song #3”. OUT: “Love Me Like You Do” and “Writing’s on the Wall”

These Christmas Day predictions reflect my current belief in this nomination breakdown:

10 Nominations

Mad Max: Fury Road

9 Nominations

Carol

7 Nominations

The Revenant

6 Nominations

The Danish Girl, The Martian

5 Nominations

Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Spotlight

4 Nominations

The Big Short, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Steve Jobs

3 Nominations

Room

2 Nominations

Inside Out, In the Heart of the Sea, Son of Saul, Trumbo

1 Nominations

Anomalisa, Kahlil Gobran’s The Prophet, The Peanuts Movie, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Joy, 45 Years, Creed, Beasts of No Nation, Ex Machina, Sicario, Jurassic World, The Hunting Ground, Concussion, Fifty Shades of Grey, Furious 7, Youth

And there’s my Christmas Day Oscar picks, my friends! The next update will come to you on New Year’s Day…

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