Month: February 2015

Box Office Predictions: February 20-22

Three new titles attempt to take on the lovers of Fifty Shades of Grey and fighters of Kingsman: The Secret Service at the box office this weekend. They are the Kevin Costner sports drama McFarland, USA, raunchy comedy sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2, and teen comedy The DUFF. You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/hot-tub-time-machine-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/mcfarland-usa-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/the-duff-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect any of the trio to make much headway among audiences and have them debuting at spots 5-7. While Fifty Shades debuted to fabulous results, it is bound to suffer a huge fall in its sophomore frame. The shrewd Valentine’s Day weekend release and rabid fan base of its source material means many filmgoers rushed to see it right away. Even with the anticipated large drop I foresee, it should still remain on top.

Kingsman: The Secret Service also debuted to impressive results over the holiday weekend. It seems destined to lose around half its audience in weekend two. The SpongeBob Movie and American Sniper should stay third and fourth.

And with that, a top seven predictions for the weekend:

1. Fifty Shades of Grey

Predicted Gross: $29.2 million (representing a drop of 65%)

2. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. McFarland, USA

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

6. Hot Tub Time Machine 2

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

7. The DUFF

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

Box Office Results (February 13-15)

Fifty Shades of Grey burst onto the box office scene with the highest February opening of all time, surpassing 2004’s The Passion of the Christ. The phenomenon made $85.1 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, blasting past my $63.1M estimate. It earned $93 million when factoring in Monday’s gross when President’s Day allowed many adults the day off.

Kingsman: The Secret Service brought in the fellas as Fifty brought in the ladies to the tune of $36.2 million, ahead of my $30.6M projection. The comic book based critical hit stands at $41.7 million for the four day weekend.

Last weekend’s champ SpongeBob dropped to third with a strong $31.4 million, besting my $25.7M prediction. The Nickelodeon toon’s total stands at $103.1 million.

American Sniper took fourth with $16.4 million, in line with my $15.3M estimate. Its astonishing cume is at $306 million. Finally, sci fi dud Jupiter Ascending was fifth in its second frame with $9.2 million, a bit ahead of my $7.5 million. It has made just $33 million at press time.

That’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

http://youtu.be/dQDilmi8RwI

 

 

The DUFF Box Office Prediction

No it’s not a biopic of the 90s MTV VJ who costarred in Dumb and Dumber, but rather a PG-13 comedy where the “DUFF” stands for Designated Ugly Fat Friend. The teen pic will try to bring in some younger viewers while Hot Tub Time Machine 2 will compete for a slightly older R rated audience as they open on the same day.

Recognizable actors such as Allison Janney and Ken Jeong are in the cast mixed in with some unknowns. I actually foresee the two comedies each debuting to similarly tepid results. The DUFF looks like a generic and non-descript feature and I feel audiences will respond accordingly. Like Hot Tub, I do not see this reaching double digits.

The DUFF opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million

For my prediction on Hot Tub Time Machine 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/hot-tub-time-machine-2-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on McFarland, USA, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/mcfarland-usa-box-office-prediction/

McFarland, USA Box Office Prediction

He’s already made three films about baseball plus football, golf, and bicycle racing pics. Apparently it’s time for cross country track on the silver screen for Kevin Costner as McFarland, USA debuts in theaters Friday.

The Disney produced drama tells the true story of a Latino high school track team with Costner as the coach. Maria Bello costars. It’s a bit of a period piece as it is set in the 1980s when Mr. Costner first started making these types of flicks. Of course, the 80s and 90s were when the star could help successfully open a movie and that time has passed.

I could definitely see this debuting right around with what another Disney sports pic did last summer, Millin Dollar Arm with Jon Hamm which earned a middling $10.5 million. This should hover right around the double digit mark. Not anything special at all, but also not so bad considering its meager reported $17 million budget.

McFarland, USA opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million

For my Hot Tub Time Machine 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/hot-tub-time-machine-2-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The DUFF, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/the-duff-box-office-prediction/

Hot Tub Time Machine 2 Box Office Prediction

Nearly five years after the original turned into a somewhat minor cult classic, Hot Tub Time Machine 2 hits theaters this Friday and will attempt to at least make what its predecessor accomplished in 2010.

The R rated sequel was supposed to come out this past Christmas, but the studio pushed it to a less competitive February spot. Machine 1 star John Cusack opted not to return for the follow-up, but Rob Corddry, Craig Robinson, Clark Duke and Chevy Chase are back to reprise their roles with Adam Scott thrown into the mix.

The original premiered to a decent $14 million with an eventual solid gross of $50 million stateside. I have serious doubts as to whether this sequel can match that. The first certainly has its fans (I count myself among them) yet there doesn’t seem to be a big clamor for a second helping. Even some admirers of the 2010 pic could opt to wait for VOD.

As I see it, Hot Tub Time Machine 2 may struggle to even reach double digits out of the gate and, ultimately, I don’t believe it will.

Hot Tub Time Machine 2 opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million

For my McFarland, USA prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/mcfarland-usa-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The DUFF, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/the-duff-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Winner Predictions: Todd’s Take

We are officially ten days away from Neil Patrick Harris hosting the Oscars and it seems like a perfect time to chime in with an update on what and who I believe will win in the eight major categories. Next weekend – I’ll provide final predictions in all of the races. Here we go:

BEST PICTURE

Of the eight movies nominated here, it now appears only two have a legit shot at becoming 2014’s Best Picture: Richard Linklater’s Boyhood and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman. The momentum still appears to be on the side of Linklater’s 12 years in the making family drama.

Predicted Winner: Boyhood

Runner-Up: Birdman

Other Nominees: American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash 

BEST DIRECTOR

Like the Picture race, it’s between Linklater and Inarritu. This practically seems like a coin flip at this point, but I’ll give the Birdman maker the slight edge since he just won the Director’s Guild of America award (often a solid predictor of who wins here).

Predicted Winner: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Runner-Up: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Other Nominees: Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)

BEST ACTOR

While Michael Keaton remains the front runner for his Birdman comeback, don’t sleep on the chances of Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything, especially following his somewhat surprising SAG Awards victory. I’m still clinging to Keaton winning though.

Predicted Winner: Michael Keaton, Birdman

Runner-Up: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Other Nominees: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)

BEST ACTRESS

Julianne Moore’s work in Still Alice is widely expected to nab the celebrated actress her first golden statue. Any other winner here would be a rather big surprise.

Predicted Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Runner-Up: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Other Nominees: Marion Cotillard (Two Days One Night), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Another easy race to predict as J.K. Simmons’ turn as the sadistic music teacher in Whiplash has won essentially all precursors. Only a Birdman sweep could mean Edward Norton is victorious and that’s a long shot.

Predicted Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, Birdman

Other Nominees: Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Like the two previous acting categories, Patricia Arquette’s Boyhood performance has scored at other awards shows and anyone but her winning would be a massive upset.

Predicted Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Birdman

Other Nominees Laura Dern (Wild), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This is one heckuva category but again should come down to Birdman and Boyhood. Like in the Director race, Birdman gets a small edge. Watch out for Budapest as a potential spoiler.

Predicted Winner: Birdman

Runner-Up: Boyhood

Other Nominees: Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This would appear to be the best chance for The Imitation Game to win a major award, but Theory of Everything may be hot on its heels.

Predicted Winner: The Imitation Game

Runner-Up: The Theory of Everything

Other Nominees: American Sniper, Inherent Vice, Whiplash

And that’ll do it. Keep an eye out for final predictions next weekend!

The Late Night Carousel and Jon Stewart

For longtime followers of my blog, you may know that I’m endlessly fascinated by the nowadays seemingly constant shifts taking place on late night comedy TV. This evening, we were informed of yet another seismic shift in the medium.

Some context: when I was very young, there was essentially only one late night talk show in town and it belonged to The King of Late Night, Johnny Carson – who hosted The Tonight Show for 30 years. Competitors such as Joan Rivers and Alan Thicke, among others, tried and failed to take him on. Only Arsenio Hall managed some success against him in the waning years of Johnny’s run.

Of course, for many years, it was the man who followed Carson that was seen as his obvious heir apparent upon retirement: David Letterman, whose innovative Late Night show followed Tonight. When Jay Leno (one of Dave’s favorite guests) began filling in for Johnny as he began to vacation more, the paradigm shifted. It was Leno who would succeed Johnny in 1992 amid much controversy. It prompted Letterman to move to CBS the following year. For two years, Dave would reign supreme as the new King of Late Night until Leno (with an assist from Hugh Grant who appeared immediately following his shocking arrest with a prostitute) became #1 for nearly two decades.

Oh… There’s more! The Letterman departure to CBS as Leno’s competitor left a void at the 12:30 Late Night slot that’d be filled with an unknown SNL writer named Conan O’Brien. And in yet another highly controversial media frenzy some sixteen years later, Leno would reluctantly “retire” and hand Conan the Cadillac that is 11:30 on NBC. It didn’t go as planned. Jay would end up with a 10pm nightly program that failed badly. Conan’s ratings couldn’t match what Leno brought in and NBC let him go with a reported $40 million payout. He would eventually end up at TBS where he remains today and Leno would return to The Tonight Show.

Oh… There’s more! When Conan did first jump to 11:30, it once again left a hole at 12:30am and SNL vet Jimmy Fallon was named. By 2014, Leno would once again depart (for good this time) and Fallon was moved up. In the year since Jimmy has taken over, it’s gone considerably better for him than Conan. Fallon has kept The Tonight Show at #1 over Letterman and ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel.

And of course Letterman announced his retirement that will take place in May after 33 years at Late Night and Late Show. His successor will be Stephen Colbert in September. Colbert, along with Steve Carell, Ed Helms, Rob Corddry, John Oliver and many others, owe their careers to one program and one man…

Jon Stewart. You knew I’d get there eventually, right? Of course that would be the news of the day. The man who’s hosted The Daily Show for 17 years announced he is stepping down this year as host. There is no doubt that Mr. Stewart, like Dave and Johnny before him, has forever changed American comedy and late night. It changed the way people thought about news and received it (especially among the coveted 18-49 audience demographic).

What some younger viewers might not know is The Daily Show existed before Jon Stewart. The first host was former ESPN anchor Craig Kilborn. He left to host The Late Late Show, the talk show airing after Letterman. Kilborn’s eventual departure paved the way for Craig Ferguson, who also announced he’s stepping down this year and that has set up James Corden to be the new host who will follow Letterman successor Colbert.

Most importantly, Kilborn’s Daily Show exit led to Stewart in 1999. You also may not be aware that this wasn’t Stewart’s first talk show. It was his second. His first aired on MTV and then in syndication and was canceled after two seasons. On his final show on that program, he nabbed his biggest guest: his comedy idol. A man named David Letterman.

Conan and Kimmel and Stewart were all Dave disciples, in the same way Letterman was a Johnny disciple. Yet Stewart brought something new to his iteration of “The Daily”. He turned it into must see TV very often. His political satire could shape people’s views on stories and politicians. As mentioned before, it provided his correspondents a platform to big things whether on film or the small screen.

There will be breathless speculation as to who will take over The Daily Show. Had Stewart made the announcement last year, my guess is John Oliver would be the easy choice. After all, he filled in for an extended period of weeks when Stewart took a sabbatical to make his directorial movie debut with Rosewater. Oliver did such a great job as guest host that HBO quickly snatched him for his acclaimed weekly Sunday evening program. He’s likely to stay put. So is Seth Meyers at Late Night, who succeeded Fallon.

My hunch is that Comedy Central will look to their current crop of Daily contributors which includes Jason Jones and Aasif Mandvi. And I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they go with their current longest tenured correspondent Samantha Bee, giving a much needed late night female face among the two Jimmy’s, Stephen’s, Seth’s, etc…

One thing is nearly certain: while Johnny Carson was not the first host of The Tonight Show and Jon Stewart was not the first Daily Show hosts, these two landmark television programs will always be linked to them, even as the Late Night carousel keeps spinning.

And here it is. Your Moment of Zen:

 

Box Office Predictions: February 13-15

It’s going to be a busy Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend at the box office as two eagerly awaited titles debut: erotic drama Fifty Shades of Grey, based on the massive bestseller and comic book based spy pic Kingsman: The Secret Service. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/07/fifty-shades-of-grey-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/07/kingsman-the-secret-service-box-office-prediction/

The two newbies should populate the top two spots this weekend. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water enjoyed a fabulous debut (more on that below) and should lose around half its audience during its sophomore frame. American Sniper should place fourth while Jupiter Ascending (which suffered a rather dismal beginning) is likely to have a huge fall in its second weekend.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Fifty Shades of Grey

Predicted Gross: $63.1 million

2. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)

4. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. Jupiter Ascending

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (February 6-8)

As previously mentioned, Nickelodeon has a fantastic weekend as sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water had the fifth biggest February opening of all time at $55.3 million or double my meager $27.8M projection. Expect a third Sponge-worthy tale soon without the decade long wait.

American Sniper held up stronger in its fourth wide release weekend with $23.2 million. I predicted $17.7M. The Oscar nominated phenomenon stands at $281 million.

Big budget sci fi actioner Jupiter Ascending stumbled out of the gate with just $18.3 million, just below my $20.9M projection. Bad reviews didn’t help and this marks the third Wachowski directed flop in a row after Speed Racer and Cloud Atlas.

Jupiter wasn’t the only fantasy pic dud of the weekend as Seventh Son took in only $7.2 million, a bit under my $8.9M estimate. The Jeff Bridges starring critical disappointment simply didn’t resonate with its target crowd.

Finally, bear tale Paddington rounded out the top five with $5.2 million – right on target with my $5.3M prediction.

That’s all for now folks! Until next time…

 

St. Vincent Movie Review

“Don’t worry , it’s going to get better.”

It’s a line stated in Theodore Melfi’s debut feature in St. Vincent and it applies to our central characters here. Bill Murray is Vincent MacKenna, a grumpy, gambling and alcoholic swilling curmudgeon who begrudgingly befriends his new neighbor boy Oliver (Jaeden Lieberher). The boy’s mother Maggie (Melissa McCarthy) is a recent divorcee who’s working hard to make ends meet and this allows Vincent to become Oliver’s unconventional babysitter. Soon enough Oliver is learning some things not being instructed by his kindly Catholic school instructor (Chris O’Dowd). He even meets Vincent’s “lady of the night” friend Daka (Naomi Watts), a pregnant hooker with a Russian heart of gold. Luckily young Oliver assumes she has a night job.

There is a lot more, however, to Vincent than his personality and demeanor suggest. He’s desperately trying to care of his Alzheimer’s ridden wife who resides in a care facility. Vincent is a war hero. The central and sweet concept of the film is simple: don’t judge a book by its cover. Also, embrace your flaws but try to do some good. At one point, Daka expresses to Vincent: “You always lose. You should be comfortable by now.”

Vincent and Maggie are both experiencing losing streaks. Yet they’re both trying. McCarthy breaks from her traditional persona and sass here. The role of Maggie is an understated one and she plays it well. This is more vulnerable and sensitive than we’re used to seeing her. She gets to shine in one scene where she confesses her problems to the faculty at Oliver’s school and McCarthy nails it. Naomi Watts takes what is mostly a cliched and familiar part and manages to turn it into a winning performance. Lieberher is key. We often see where a child actor can dampen proceedings with sub par acting. Not here. The kid is just fine.

St. Vincent is a formula movie for sure. We know where the screenplay is eventually headed. Subplots involving the school bully and a custody battle are by the numbers. Don’t worry though. St. Vincent is solid enough and gets better. While the aforementioned performers deserve some credit, let’s get real. Bill Murray is a national treasure. He’s an incredibly gifted actor comedically and dramatically. He gets to exhibit both qualities in large doses here. Director/writer Melfi fashions a template for Murray to play in that’s quite good. Murray makes it near great.

***1/2 (out of four)

Kingsman: The Secret Service Box Office Prediction

It certainly doesn’t have the name recognition of your Avengers or X-Men, but Kingsman: The Secret Service still may use its superhero related formula to bring in successful box office results. Based on a 2012 comic book, the 20th Century Fox production utilizes some familiar names and faces in its genre. Matthew Vaughn, director of X-Men: First Class, serves behind the camera with Nick Fury (Samuel L. Jackson) and Alfred the Butler (Michael Caine) in supporting roles. Oscar winner Colin Firth headlines.

The spy action comedy has been receiving mostly strong critical notices and it stands at 80% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Kingsman could serve as smart counter programming for the male audience as much of the female audience will be watching Christian Grey and whips and blindfolds. Trailers and TV spots have been prevalent and well produced.

I’ll estimate that Kingsman manages a sturdy debut of around $30 million. That’s less than half what I’m predicting Fifty Shades makes, but it’s still quite good for this picture.

Kingsman: The Secret Service opening weekend prediction: $30.6 million

For my Fifty Shades of Grey prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/07/fifty-shades-of-grey-box-office-prediction/

Fifty Shades of Grey Box Office Prediction

This President’s and Valentine’s Day weekend, Fifty Shades of Grey is expected to capture the full attention of many moviegoers, especially the female audience. Based on the E.L. James phenomenon of a bestseller, Sam Taylor-Johnson directs the film adaptation with relative unknown actors Dakota Johnson as Anastasia Steele and Jamie Dornan as Christian Grey. With its well known source material, this erotic drama should whip all competitors and clamp down on the #1 spot. The figure of over $50 million out of the gate are probably safe words for how this will perform.

Universal Pictures is shrewdly releasing the project on Valentine’s weekend and there are already two sequels reportedly in the works. While Shades is unlikely to approach the all time February opening of The Passion of the Christ at $83 million, it could flirt with the $69 million #2 of the month opening that was last year’s LEGO Movie. It might not quite get there, but it should surpass Hannibal’s $58 million debut to overtake the number three record domestic haul for February.

I’ll predict Fifty Shades of Grey gets off to a very healthy start with its legions of mostly female fans. It may not hold up too well in subsequent weekends, but with its smallish $40 million budget, it won’t matter much.

Fifty Shades of Grey opening weekend prediction: $63.1 million

For my Kingsman: The Secret Service prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/07/kingsman-the-secret-service-box-office-prediction/