Three new titles open Friday to challenge current two week champ Dawn of the Planet of the Apes for box office dominance. They are the Scarlett Johannson action pic Lucy, The Rock led Hercules, and the Michael Douglas/Diane Keaton rom com And So It Goes. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/lucy-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/hercules-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/and-so-it-goes-box-office-prediction/
As I see it, Lucy and Hercules may fight it out for the #1 position. If both underwhelm, there is an outside chance for Dawn to three-peat. As for other holdovers, current #2 The Purge: Anarchy is likely to suffer the typically big decline that horror titles do, though I’m not predicting it’ll drop as precipitously as the original fell (75%) last summer. The animated Planes: Fire & Rescue should have the smallest decline of all titles in its sophomore weekend while And So It Goes may have to settle for a sixth place debut.
And with that – my predictions for this coming weekend’s top 6:
1. Lucy
Predicted Gross: $28.1 million
2. Hercules
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
3. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $19.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)
4. Planes: Fire & Rescue
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)
5. The Purge: Anarchy
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 65%)
6. And So It Goes
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
Box Office Results (July 18-20)
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes remained #1 for the second week in a row with $36.2 million, just above my $34.6M projection. The well-reviewed sequel has earned $139 million in ten days and a gross north of $200 million seems in the cards.
I far underestimated The Purge: Anarchy, which debuted strongly at second with $29.8 million – way beyond my $15.5M prediction. I incorrectly surmised that audience’s dislike of the original would hurt this. It didn’t. Expect a part 3 next year.
Disney’s Planes: Fire & Rescue opened third with a decent $17.5 million, under my generous $25.4M estimate. It couldn’t match the $22 million that its predecessor accomplished last summer, but it should hold well in future weekends.
The bomb of the weekend was undoubtedly the Cameron Diaz comedy Sex Tape, which stumbled out of the gate with $14.6 million – about half of my $29.1M projection. Oops. There’s no doubt that highly negative reviews hurt this and this will go down as one of the season’s biggest flops.
In fifth was holdover Transformers: Age of Extinction with $9.8 million in its fourth weekend, above my $7.7M estimate. It’s taken in $227 million so far and should get to $250 million, which will most likely allow it to be summer’s highest domestic grosser.
That’s all for now, everyone!
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