We’ve got three new titles populating theaters this coming Friday: the Cameron Diaz/Jason Segel comedy Sex Tape, the horror sequel The Purge: Anarchy and Disney’s animated sequel Planes: Fire & Rescue. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/sex-tape-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/planes-fire-rescue-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/the-purge-anarchy-box-office-prediction/
These newbies could create a legitimate three-way race for the #1 spot. The main question is whether Sex Tape or Planes could exceed my expectations and knock current champ Dawn of the Planet of the Apes from its perch? It’s certainly possible. Some could make the argument that the Purge sequel could over perform and compete, but I just don’t see that happening.
Ultimately I’m predicting the Apes will keep their considerable monkey business at #1 with the new entries coming in second through fourth. The well-reviewed Apes flick is likely to lose 45-55% of its audience in its sophomore frame. Transformers: Age of Extinction should fall to fifth.
And with that, my top five predictions for the upcoming weekend:
1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $34.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. Sex Tape
Predicted Gross: $29.1 million
3. Planes: Fire & Rescue
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
4. The Purge: Anarchy
Predicted Gross: $15.5 million
5. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)
Box Office Results (July 11-13)
As expected, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes dominated the weekend with a very solid $72.6 million haul – though it did fall a little short of my $77.2M projection. This is a great start for it and pretty much guarantees more franchise entrees in the near future.
Falling to second in weekend #3 was Transformers: Age of Extinction with $16.3 million, right in range with my $16.8M prediction. The fourth film in the Michael Bay series has earned $208 million so far. It will likely top out around $250 million and will easily be the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise.
Melissa McCarthy’s critically panned Tammy held up a bit better than I figured, placing third with $12.5 million – above my $10.7M estimate. The comedy has earned $56 million in two weeks.
In fourth was 22 Jump Street with $6.5 million, just outshining my $5.6M prediction. The sequel has earned $171 million. In fifth was How to Train Your Dragon 2 with $6 million. My prediction? $6 million! The animated sequel has earned a less than expected $152 million. Finally, Earth to Echo was sixth in weekend #2 with $5.4 million, in line with my $5.2M projection. Its taken in $24 million in two weeks.
And that’s all for now, friends!
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