Early reviews have been released for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, out on Friday, July 11 and they are something to behold. The critic from Hollywood Reporter has compared it to The Empire Strikes Back while Variety says it bests its predecessor in every way. Drew McWeeny at Hitfix says it’s one of the year’s best films.
The box office prospects for Dawn looked bright before this rapturous word-of-mouth began and this only greatly accentuates it. 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes was released in August and quickly became one of the summer’s pleasant surprises. It received solid reviews and took in an impressive $176 million domestically.
Three years later – Apes could be in a legitimate position to claim the thrown of summer 2014’s largest grosser. This is due to a combination of certain pictures not meeting expectations. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and How to Train Your Dragon 2 immediately come to mind. X-Men: Days of Future Past performed solidly, but should top out at around $235 million while Disney’s Maleficent may earn just under that.
The picture to beat (unsurprisingly) is Transformers: Age of Extinction, which got off to an estimated $100 million start this weekend. Still, that opening means a probable gross of between $250-$275 million and $300 million is a stretch.
Dawn‘s fawning reviews could lead to it being seen as a must-see event picture. We have seen examples of tent pole flick sequels outshining their predecessors in recent years. 2000’s X-Men earned $157 million while its better reviewed sequel X2 made $214 million, a $57 million improvement. 2002’s The Bourne Identity made $121 million while The Bourne Supremacy hauled in $176 million two years later… a $55 million improvement. 2011’s Captain America made $176 million (coincidentally Rise‘s gross) while its sequel The Winter Soldier will top out at over $260 million… about an $85 million upgrade.
And then there’s the largest example by a mile. 2005’s Batman Begins grossed $206 million domestically while The Dark Knight three years later earned an astonishing $534 million. While Dawn will get nowhere near that figure, it’s reasonable now to see a path close to $300 million, which would make it the season’s top dog… or ape.
Having said all that, the bots of Transformers could still end up on top. And as far as the full year’s top grosser – that crown should belong to The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part I when it debuts this fall. Regardless, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes has become a real contender in summer 2014 and we will see just how much monkey business it manages very soon.
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