Box Office Predictions: June 20-22

Two new pictures enter the marketplace this Friday with the Kevin Hart led sequel Think Like a Man Too and the Clint Eastwood directed adaptation of the Broadway smash Jersey Boys. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/think-like-a-man-too-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/jersey-boys-box-office-prediction/

Depending on the percentage drops of sequels 22 Jump Street and How To Train Your Dragon 2, there could be a legitimate three-way race for the top spot among those “part two’s” and the second Think Like a Man. My prediction for Man is on the higher end of expectations and I’m estimating Jump Street loses about half its audience and Dragon only loses around one-third of its debut gross.

This should leave Jersey Boys opening in the four spot with Maleficent rounding out the top five.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Think Like a Man Too

Predicted Gross: $38.2 million

2. How To Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 35%)

3. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $27.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)

4. Jersey Boys

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

5. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (June 13-15)

Well it’s not often that I miss a prediction by nearly $40 million dollars, but I’m embarrassed to report it happened this weekend. Simply put, How To Train Your Dragon 2 didn’t come anywhere close to what I believed to be its potential. Many insiders had pegged this as a candidate for summer 2014’s biggest grosser and I bought into it. It earned a just OK $49.4 million compared to my $88.7 million prediction. Ouch.

This allowed 22 Jump Street to post a terrific #1 opening with $57 million, just above my $53.1M projection. The goodwill left over from the 2012 original and rock solid reviews clearly contributed to its success.

Maleficent took the #3 spot in its third weekend with $18.5 million, barely outpacing my $17.4M estimate. The Disney hit had taken in $163M so far and looks to surpass $200 million when all is said and done.

Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow held up better in weekend #2 than I thought it would with $16.5 million for fourth, ahead of my $13.8M estimate. It’s taken in $57 million in ten days and has a shot of getting to $100 million.

This means last weekend’s #1 The Fault in Our Stars dipped further than my estimate with $14.7 million in its sophomore frame. I predicted $17.9 million. The John Green adapted weepie fell a steep 67%, but it’s already made $80 million in ten days and had a meager $12 million budget.

That’s all for now, folks. Until next time!