Four new titles populate multiplexes this Friday over the four-day MLK weekend – Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, Ride Along, Devil’s Due, and The Nut Job. You can peruse my prediction posts on each one of them at the following links:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/jack-ryan-shadow-recruit-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/ride-along-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/devils-due-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/the-nut-job-box-office-prediction/
The big question is: can any of these releases knock off Lone Survivor from staying at #1 for the second weekend? The Mark Wahlberg Navy SEAL pic had the second highest January debut of all time, far surpassing the box office predictions of prognosticators, including this one. With its remarkable A+ Cinemascore average, word of mouth on Survivor is very strong and it should hold up quite well in weekend number two.
The 2014 MLK weekend may well resemble the same one from five years ago when four new releases all posted healthy debuts. There was Paul Blart: Mall Cop which made $39 million over the four-day while My Bloody Valentine 3D, Notorious, and Hotel for Dogs all posted openings of over $20 million. The four new titles this year I have pegged at between $17-$25 million each, but any of them could do better and take top honors from Wahlberg and company. My predictions do not reflect that though and I believe Lone Survivor should stay alone at the top spot.
And with that, my predictions for the holiday weekend’s top five for the four-day Friday to Monday frame:
1. Lone Survivor
Predicted Gross: $30.4 million (representing a drop of 19%)
2. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million
3. Ride Along
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
4. The Nut Job
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
5. Devil’s Due
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
My Results from Last Weekend (January 10-12):
As I mentioned, Lone Survivor went beyond expectations with a terrific debut of $37.8 million, well ahead of my paltry $21.7M projection. Disney’s Frozen stayed at #2 with $14.7 million, a bit higher than my estimate of $13.5M. The Legend of Hercules debuted at third with a disappointing $8.8 million, below my $11.9M prediction. The Wolf of Wall Street was fourth, also with $8.8 million – right in line with my $8.5M estimate. American Hustle was fifth with $8.3 million and I incorrectly did not have it the top five. The six spot belonged to The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug with $8 million, just under my $8.4M projection.
Finally, two Oscar hopefuls expanded their theater counts with different results. August: Osage County was seventh with a solid $7.1 million on only around 900 screens, beyond my $5.8M projection. Her was a disappointment, managing only $5.3 million for an 11th place showing, well below my $8.3M estimate.
And that’s all for now, folks! I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the holiday weekend with final results next week.
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