The post Thanksgiving box office weekend is usually a fairly sluggish one and there’s only one new title joining the fray – the Christian Bale crime thriller Out of the Furnace. You can read my full prediction post on it here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/01/out-of-the-furnace-box-office-prediction/
Unless it majorly underwhelms (which is somewhat possible), Furnace is pretty much assured the #3 spot for its debut. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Disney’s Frozen appear destined to duke it out for the #1 slot.
Catching Fire is entering its third weekend and post Thanksgiving blockbusters typically drop below 50% in December’s first weekend. For instance, 2011 and 2012’s Twilight entries dipped 60% in their third frames over the same weekend. Catching Fire may not drop quite that far, but it should be close.
On the other hand, Disney’s Frozen opened at #2 over Turkey Day weekend with the best opening for the holiday of all time. Its chances of not falling over 50% seem better and, if that happens, Frozen would catapault to first and Fire would fall to second.
Thor: The Dark World should be fourth in its fifth weekend while Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man and The Best Man Holiday should fight it out for the five spot. And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:
1. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $34.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)
2. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 57%)
3. Out of the Furnance
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
4. Thor: The Dark World
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)
5. Delivery Man
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
As always, I’ll have final results on the blog this Sunday!
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