Box Office Predictions: April 15-17

Disney should dominate the upcoming weekend as its live-action remake of The Jungle Book swings into theaters. It’s not the only new game in town though as Barbershop: The Next Cut and Kevin Costner/Ryan Reynolds action thriller Criminal also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

I have The Jungle Book outpacing the Mouse Factory’s terrific debuts for Maleficent and Cinderella. Word of mouth and reviews are both solid and my prediction puts it just under what Zootopia earned out of the gate in March.

My prognosis is also bright for Barbershop, the third entry in a franchise that’s been dormant for over a decade. As for Criminal, I have it coming in slightly under what Costner’s 3 Days to Kill accomplished two years ago. It’s worth saying that estimate for it is a bit above others that have it coming in with less than $10M.

Current champ The Boss may fall in the low to mid 40s while Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice should continue its streak of 50% plus dips in its fourth weekend. And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

The Jungle Book

Predicted Gross: $74.6 million

2. Barbershop: The Next Cut

Predicted Gross: $23.1 million

3. The Boss

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. Criminal

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

Box Office Results (April 8-10)

I predicted a tight race for the top spot between Melissa McCarthy’s The Boss and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice in weekend #3. It was even closer than I thought it would be as The Boss opened in first with $23.4 million. My prediction? $23.5M! Talk about being a boss, eh? Hey, this doesn’t happen too often, so I’ll enjoy it while I can.

That means BvS slipped to second place with $23.3 million, a tad below my $24.5M prognosis. Warner Bros superhero mashup stands at $296M after three weeks.

Disney’s Zootopia was third with $14.3 million – in line with my $14.9M estimate for a total of $296M as well.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 was fourth in weekend #3 with $6.4 million, a bit under my $7.3M prediction for a $4.6M total.

Finally – landing with a major thud in fifth place was the debut of first person action flick Hardcore Henry with just $5.1 million compared to my $7.8M projection. And I was on the lower end of estimates!

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 8-10

Melissa McCarthy’s latest comedy The Boss will look to demote Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice to the runner-up spot when it opens this weekend. Additionally, the video game like action pic Hardcore Henry debuts. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/31/the-boss-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/31/hardcore-henry-box-office-prediction/

I have The Boss opening a bit under what some recent McCarthy pictures have accomplished over the last three years. Still, considering the hefty sophomore decline that BvS experienced this past weekend (more on that below), it could create a photo finish for the top spot. My estimates have the Caped Crusader and Man of Steel slightly ahead for a narrow three-peat, as I see it dipping just over 50% in weekend 3.

As for the rest of the top five, Zootopia should easily manage a third place showing, as long as Hardcore Henry doesn’t rather significantly exceed expectations. I actually have Henry in a tight battle with My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 for the four spot and have it a bit ahead.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

Predicted Gross: $24.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. The Boss

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

3. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 23%)

4. Hardcore Henry

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (April 1-3)

All eyes were on the second weekend of Batman v Justice: Dawn of Justice, which had a terrific opening but was subjected to so-so audience word of mouth and many harsh reviews. The drop was even more significant than most prognosticated as it fell a steep 69% to $51.3 million (below my $59.1M prediction). The Warner Bros. tent pole has taken in $260 million in 10 days and while those numbers are nothing to sneeze at, the studio has to be at least a little concerned with a fall that massive.

Zootopia easily held the #2 spot with $19.3 million in its fifth weekend, zooming past my $14.9M estimate. The Disney animated smash has earned $275M so far.

In third was My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 with $11.2 million in its second weekend (I went a little under with $9.4M) for a $36M total. While it won’t even reach a third of its predecessor’s $241M domestic haul from 14 years ago, it’s still doing respectable business.

Faith based sequel God’s Not Dead 2 couldn’t match the opening of its predecessor two years ago. It made $7.6 million (I predicted $9.6M), which is under the $9.2M achieved by the original (which only debuted on half the number of screens).

Another Christian themed feature, Miracles from Heaven, rounded out the top five with $7.2 million, ahead of my $5.7M prognosis for a three-week gross of $46M.

Finally, the weekend’s other debut – the Mike Epps Purge spoof Meet the Blacks – exceeded most expectations in 8th place with $4 million, just ahead of my $3.7M projection.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 1-3

After a record-breaking Easter weekend for two iconic superheroes, the first weekend of April brings a slowdown as only two non major studio pics debut. They are faith-based sequel God’s Not Dead 2 and Mike Epps’ Purge parody Meet the Blacks. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/24/gods-not-dead-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/28/meet-the-blacks-box-office-prediction/

Let’s get the newbies out of the way first. I look for God’s Not Dead 2 to open within the same range as its predecessor two years ago. That should leave it in a close battle with the second weekend of My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, which I have falling by almost half.

As for Meet the Blacks, it’s only opening on about 1000 screens and I believe it will be lucky to reach $5 million. My $3.7 million estimate for it leaves it outside the top five.

Zootopia should continue its smallish declines and retain the #2 position. Miracles from Heaven should round out the top five, as long as Blacks doesn’t exceed my estimate.

That leaves the biggest question of the week: how much will Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice drop in its sophomore weekend? Down below, you can read all about its record-setting debut. Critics have not been kind and its B Cinemascore grade indicates that even audiences aren’t exactly loving it. Here’s how some other tent poles dipped in their second weekends (all of these titles made between $147-$191M out of the gate):

Avengers: Age of Ultron – 59%

Iron Man 3 – 58%

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 – 72%

The Dark Knight Rises – 61%

Spider-Man 3 – 61%

Furious 7 – 59%

Then there’s 2013’s Man of Steel, which serves as Justice‘s predecessor. It didn’t have the greatest buzz either and dropped 64% after a $116 million debut.

So where does that leave us? I actually believe BvS is going to fall right around with where Man of Steel did (63-65 percent).

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

Predicted Gross: $59.1 million (representing a drop of 64%)

2. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 38%)

3. God’s Not Dead 2

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 47%)

5. Miracles from Heaven

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 41%)

Box Office Results (March 25-27)

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice accomplished having the seventh largest opening of all time and kick starting Warner Bros. Justice League features and intended spin-offs to the tune of a $166 million debut. My prognosis? $166.4M! Pretty happy with this one. While critics were mostly not kind (a 29% Rotten Tomatoes score), audience anticipation was clearly peaked. It just missed being its studio’s biggest opener (the final Harry Potter did $169M), but it did set the record for the month of March and highest Easter performer. The big question, as mentioned above, is how far it falls in weekend #2 and I’m predicting it’ll be rather precipitous.

Zootopia took the runner-up spot with $24 million (in line with my $23.4M estimate) for a four-week tally of $241 million.

Opening in third and with higher than anticipated numbers was long gestating comedy sequel My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 with $17.8 million, above my $13.1M projection. This is a positive result considering reviews were poor and it had been 14 years since the mega hit original. This was never expected to approach the amazing $241M the first Wedding pocketed and it certainly won’t, but overall this is a fine result.

In a close battle for fourth among features in their second weekends, Miracles from Heaven edged out The Divergent Series: Allegiant. The faith-based Heaven capitalized on the Easter weekend with $9.6 million (a bit below my $10.9M estimate) for a total of $34M. Allegiant continued its plummet with $9.4 million (under my $12.7M projection) for an overall gross of $46M. It may top out at just around $65M – its two predecessors made $150M and $130M, respectively. Ouch.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 25-27

Two iconic superheroes look to set an all-time March opening weekend record as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice debuts Friday, along with rom com sequel My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice Box Office Prediction

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 Box Office Prediction

As outlined in the individual prediction on Dawn of Justice, it stands a real shot at becoming March’s biggest opener if it manages to get past the $152 million accomplished by The Hunger Games four years ago. I’m predicting that it will.

As for Greek Wedding 2, it’s the sequel to the highest earning romantic comedy in box office history. However, I believe the 14 year gap with this sequel could mean an opening in the low teens.

When it comes to holdovers, Zootopia should drop to second after 3 weeks on top while The Divergent Series: Allegiant looks to suffer a much heftier drop in its sophomore frame than Miracles from Heaven, which should capitalize on the Easter weekend. In fact, I see a genuine photo finish for the three spot between Wedding, Miracles, and Allegiant.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

Predicted Gross: $166.4 million

2. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

4. The Divergent Series: Allegiant

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

5. Miracles from Heaven

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

Box Office Results (March 18-20)

Disney’s Zootopia made it three weeks in a row on top with $37.1 million, a bit higher than my $32M forecast. The smash hit animated pic has earned $200M thus far and reaching above $300M now looks to be a foregone conclusion.

The results were not so hot for The Divergent Series: Allegiant, which posted the lowest numbers by far of the franchise to date. While 2014’s Divergent premiered to $54 million and Insurgent made $52 million, Allegiant managed just $29 million compared to my $43.7M prediction. This doesn’t bode well for part two of Allegiant, out next summer.

The faith based drama Miracles from Heaven debuted in third with a sturdy $14.8 million (just under my $15.8M projection) and a five day total of $18.3 million since its Wednesday opening (I said $20.8M). As mentioned, look for this continue to perform solidly this coming Easter frame.

10 Clovefield Lane was fourth in its second weekend with $12.5 million (I said $10.1M) and its two week total is $45M. Deadpool rounded out the top five with $8 million (I was close with $7.2M) for a cume of $340M.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Oscar Watch: Zootopia and Sausage Party

Two wildly different 2016 animated features could both find themselves in the Best Animated Feature category come Oscar time next year.

The first is Disney’s Zootopia, which has ruled the box office kingdom for the last two weeks and looks to reach an eventual gross of $275-$300 million domestically. With a fantastic 99% Rotten Tomatoes score and bragging rights for being the biggest opener of all time for a traditionally animated tale, there is little doubt it will be among the five nominees. It could even win, though its biggest competitor might be Disney/Pixar’s Finding Nemo sequel Finding Dory, which is out this summer.

Our second possibility is Sausage Party, which screened in a rough cut at the South by Southwest Festival last night. Billed as the first hard R rated CG flick, Party comes from the minds of Seth Rogen and his writing/producing partner Evan Goldberg. In addition to Mr. Rogen, featured voices include Kristin Wiig, Jonah Hill, Michael Cera, James Franco, Danny McBride, Craig Robinson, Edward Norton, and Salma Hayek. It’s not out until August, but word of mouth from the festival is strong and this looks to be a potential sleeper hit come summer. This isn’t your typical animated material that the Academy would recognize, but it might be tough for them to ignore.

We’ll see how this race plays out as more competition is released in the coming months, but we may already have a couple of major possibilities in the mix.

Box Office Predictions: March 18-20

Two new entries populate the multiplexes this weekend as third YA franchise entry The Divergent Series: Allegiant and faith based drama Miracles from Heaven debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/the-divergent-series-allegiant-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/miracles-from-heaven-box-office-prediction/

While I have Allegiant opening below its predecessors Divergent and Insurgent, it should still manage to end the two week dominance of Zootopia atop the charts. I have Miracles posting a solid third place showing and it could play well into Easter weekend in its sophomore frame if word of mouth is strong.

As for holdovers, Disney’s Zootopia should fall to the runner up position and keep its terrific returns coming. 10 Cloverfield Lane was a hit with the critics but only received a middling B- Cinemascore grade, so I look for its second week drop to be big. Deadpool should round out the top five.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

The Divergent Series: Allegiant

Predicted Gross: $43.7 million

2. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 37%)

3. Miracles from Heaven

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $20.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday prediction)

4. 10 Cloverfield Lane

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (March 11-13)

Zootopia continued to rule the box office kingdom this weekend with an even smaller than expected drop in weekend #2. The Disney animated tale, fresh off its record setting opening frame, grossed $51.3 million (outpacing my $41.6M estimate) for a $143M total.

10 Cloverfield Lane couldn’t come to close to matching its predecessor’s $40 million premiere in 2008, but managed a respectable $24.7 million (compared to my $28.3M prognosis). Considering its reported small budget, it should turn a nice profit.

London Has Fallen was third in its sophomore weekend with $10.8 million, just above my $9.9M prediction for a ten day total of $39M.

Fourth place was massive hit Deadpool with $10.8 million (a bit higher than my prediction of $9.4M) for a four week tally of $328M.

In fifth was the Tina Fey comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot with $4.6 million for a ten day total of $14M. I incorrectly had it outside my top 6 predictions.

That’s because I grossly overestimated two newcomers. There was one exception: rom com The Perfect Match was sixth with $4.2 million. I said $4.1M. At least I was close on that one…

As for The Young Messiah and The Brothers Grimsby… not so much. The faith based drama Messiah opened in seventh at just $3.2 million, way below my generous $12.7M estimate. As for Sacha Baron Cohen’s critically reviled Grimsby, it fared even slightly worse in 8th place with $3.2 million compared to my generous $11.4M estimate.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 11-13

Four new titles debut this weekend at the box office to try and challenge Zootopia after its record breaking debut. They are: semi-sequel 10 Cloverfield Lane, Sacha Baron Cohen comedy The Brothers Grimsby, Biblical drama The Young Messiah, and rom com The Perfect Match. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/10-cloverfield-lane-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-brothers-grimsby-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-young-messiah-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-perfect-match-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Disney’s Zootopia should fairly easily control the #1 spot for the second weekend in a row, unless Cloverfield significantly exceeds my prognosis. The real battle among the newcomers could be for the #3 slot and I have Messiah slightly edging Grimsby. The number five position could be a battle between holdovers London Has Fallen and Deadpool as I believe the former will have a higher percentage dropoff than the latter. Opening on a limited number of screens, my $4.1M prediction for The Perfect Match should keep it outside the top six.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for this weekend:

Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $41.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

2. 10 Cloverfield Lane

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

3. The Young Messiah

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. The Brothers Grimsby

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. London Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

6. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (March 4-6)

Disney had a banner weekend as Zootopia had the largest traditional animation opening ever for the studio at a blazing $75 million, soaring past my meager $54.4M projection. The animal tale can also claim highest animated debut for the month of March. As mentioned, it should easily stampede its competitors and remain in first next weekend.

Action sequel London Has Fallen couldn’t match its predecessor Olympus Has Fallen‘s $30M premiere from three years ago. The badly reviewed follow-up earned $21.6 million, under my $24.6M prediction and I look for it to lose over half its audience in its sophomore frame.

Deadpool dropped to third with $16.7 million (in line with my $16.9M estimate) for an incredible tally of $311M.

Tina Fey’s so-so reviewed war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot had a soft opening for fourth with $7.4 million, a tad below my $8.4M projection.

In fifth, box office dud Gods of Egypt took a nosedive from its dismal debut last weekend with $5.1 million (I was slightly kinder with $5.8M) for a total of $23M.

Finally, British horror offering The Other Side of the Door opened in limited fashion with only $1.2 million (compared to my $2.1M estimate) for just 16th place.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 4-6

A quartet of new releases start out the month of March at the box office this weekend. They are Disney Animation’s Zootopia, action sequel London Has Fallen, Tina Fey war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, and British horror entry The Other Side of the Door. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/zootopia-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/london-has-fallen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/whiskey-tango-foxtrot-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/the-other-side-of-the-door-box-office-prediction/

Zootopia should have no trouble ending the three week domination of Deadpool atop the charts while I expect London to hit the #2 spot, putting Ryan Reynolds’ vulgar superhero in the three spot with Whiskey placing fourth. Box office dud Gods of Egypt should be fifth in its second weekend, as long as its anticipated hefty decline doesn’t allow Kung Fu Panda 3 to remain in the top five. As for The Other Side of the Door, it’s only opening on around 500 screens and my $2.1 million prediction for it leaves it far outside the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $54.4 million

2. London Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million

3. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Gods of Egypt

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (February 26-28)

As anticipated, Deadpool maintained the #1 position for the third weekend in a row. The three new entries were, as Donald Trump might say, “low energy”. Ryan Reynolds’ phenomenon took in $31.1 million (compared to my $28M forecast) for a total of $285M.

Gods of Egypt proved to be the first massive bomb of the year as the inexplicably budgeted $140 million action fantasy grossed just $14.1 million, which was on pace with my $13.9M estimate.

Animated sequel Kung Fu Panda 3 was third in weekend #5 with $8.8 million, in line with my $8.2M projection for a total gross of $128M.

Biblical drama Risen was fourth in its sophomore frame with $6.8 million, right there with my $7.1M prediction for a ten day total of $22M.

Two newcomers had soft debuts for the fifth and sixth slots. Heist thriller Triple 9 earned $6.1 million (just below my prediction of $6.9M) for fifth while Olympic drama Eddie the Eagle was iced in sixth with only $6 million (I was much kinder with an $11.2M estimate).

And that’ll do it for now. folks! Until next time…

Zootopia Box Office Prediction

Disney looks to end the box office domination of Deadpool next weekend with Zootopia, the studio’s 55th animated feature. It’s quite likely to succeed. The animal tale features the voices of Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Idris Elba, J.K. Simmons, and Shakira.

The pic has amassed positive reviews (currently 100% on Rotten Tomatoes) and it’s already done brisk business in overseas markets. Zootopia arrives just four months after a rare animated disappointment for The Mouse Factory – November’s The Good Dinosaur, which took in a much less than expected $121 million domestically.

That said, with a dearth of family fare out there, I expect this to improve on Dinosaur‘s numbers. An opening in the mid 50s seems most plausible.

Zootopia opening weekend prediction: $54.4 million