As they frequently do over the Thanksgiving holiday, Disney should reign supreme with an animated effort. In 2025, they’ll do it via Zootopia 2 which follows up the 2016 original. Jared Bush and Byron Howard are back directing. Returning voice work comes from Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Shakira, Idris Elba, Alan Tudyk, Bonnie Hunt, and Jenny Slate. Newcomers to the franchise include Ke Huy Quan, Fortune Feimster, Andy Samberg, David Strathairn, Patrick Warburton, Quinta Brunson, and Danny Trejo.
At the 89th Academy Awards, Zootopia won Best Animated Feature against fellow studio competitor Moana and the acclaimed Kubo and the Two Strings. It opened early in the calendar (March) and maintained frontrunner status throughout the long awards season. Reviews were strong with 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic.
The sequel is also generating solid critical reaction with 93% on RT and Metacritic at 73. Those numbers are sturdy enough that I’m confident Zootopia 2 has reserved a spot in the Animated Feature quintet. It also has a shot to be victorious like its predecessor. However, I’ve had it ranked in second position behind the cultural juggernaut that is Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters. Overcoming that streaming phenomenon could be a tall order. It might be achievable but leaving it in second feels right unless precursors alter the narrative. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Zootopia 2 seeks to rule the Thanksgiving box office while rom com Eternity opens and will just try and make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Disney’s sequel to their 2016 Oscar-winning animated feature should easily the eclipse the $75 million debut of what came nine years ago. Zootopia 2 appears on track for the second highest Turkey frame behind the Mouse House’s own Moana 2 from last year.
As for Eternity, the heaven set pic with Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen may struggle out of the (pearly) gates on approximately 1500 screens. My projection leaves it outside the top five.
Speaking of the high five, I’m doing not doing an official estimate for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery. The third entry in Rian Johnson’s murder mystery series with Daniel Craig, it is slated for selected theaters prior to its December 12th Netflix bow. Three years ago, predecessor Glass Onion kicked off over the same holiday frame in nearly 700 venues. Though Netflix doesn’t officially report its numbers, figures of just over $9 million (three-day) and $13 million (five-day) were unofficially given for that rollout prior to its streaming start. Because hard figures aren’t revealed (and due to uncertainty about Wake‘s actual screen count), I’m not projecting it. That said, don’t be surprised if the unofficial tally reveals a third place showing with similar grosses to Onion. Got all that?
Moving to the holdovers, Wicked: For Good flew high with 2025’s second largest opening (more on that below). The first Wicked premiered in the same weekend in 2024 and dropped a mere 28% over Thanksgiving. The likelihood is that For Good is more front loaded and it may ease in the low to mid 40s for what would essentially be the same numbers for its sophomore play.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t, Predator: Badlands, and The Running Man should all move down a slot and here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $112.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $184.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Wicked: For Good
Predicted Gross: $82 million
3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
4. Predator: Badlands
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. The Running Man
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
6. Eternity
Predicted Gross: $3 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (November 21-23)
Wicked: For Good may not have completely defied prognostications, but its $147 million debut is second only to A Minecraft Movie for the year. Part 2 of the witchy and wizardly saga didn’t match my $158.1 million call though it managed to outshine the $112.5 million achieved by part 1.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t dropped to second with $8.9 million, in line with my $9.4 million prediction. The magic themed threequel has made off with $36 million.
Predator: Badlands was third in week 3 with $6.5 million compared to my $5.9 million take. It is up to $76 million overall.
In fourth position, The Running Man stumbled a steep 65% in weekend 2 with $5.7 million (I said $6.7 million) for just $26 million thus far.
Rental Family with Brendan Fraser, despite appreciative reviews and word-of-mouth, was fifth with a ho-hum $3.3 million. That is slightly above my $2.9 million estimate.
Finally, Finnish action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge was sixth with an unimpressive $2.4 million. I gave it more credit at $4 million.
Disney has owned the Thanksgiving holiday in recent years and that looks to continue when Zootopia 2 arrives November 26th. Jared Bush and Byron Howard are back directing the sequel to the 2016 blockbuster that took home Best Animated Feature at the Oscars. Returning voices include Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Idris Elba, and Shakira. New faces behind the mics are Ke Huy Quan, Fortune Feimster, Andy Samberg, David Strathairn, Patrick Warburton, Quinta Brunson, Roman Reigns, and CM Punk.
Last year, the Mouse House smashed the Thanksgiving box office record with Moana 2. That follow-up took in $139 million from Friday to Sunday with $225 million when counting Wednesday and Turkey Day. The previous highest three-day opening was the original Moana (also from 2016) at $56 million.
Zootopia 2 should fall between the Moana‘s in the record books. In a best case scenario, it could threaten part 2. In March 2016, the original exceeded expectations with a $75 million start on its way to $341 million overall domestically. This is widely anticipated to build on that with room to spare.
I’ll project a Friday to Sunday gross between $110 to $115 million and a five-day topping $180 million.
Zootopia 2 opening weekend prediction: $112.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $184.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Each year the American Film Institute (AFI) names their ten best films of the year and it’s become a reliable bell weather for 7-8 Best Picture nominees at the Oscars. How about a look at the past 15 years and their track record since the Academy expanded to more than five BP contenders?
2009: 5/10 match
2010: 9/10
2011: 7/9
2012: 8/9
2013: 7/9
2014: 6/8
2015: 6/8
2016: 7/9
2017: 7/9
2018: 5/8
2019: 7/9
2020: 6/8
2021: 8/10
2022: 7/10
2023: 8/10
There’s an important caveat as this is the American Film Institute. Therefore movies considered international do not make the cut. They often get a “special” award and that was the case with Roma, Parasite, and The Banshees of Inisherin.
Today’s AFI announcement was surprising in the sense that there was only one. Emilia Pérez was thought by most to be ineligible for the 10 due to its foreign flavor, but it managed to make the cut. The AFI list is as follows:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
Wicked
Not a shocker in the group. This seems like a key inclusion for Nickel Boys and A Real Pain in solidifying their status as legit BP players. I suspect that if some prognosticators knew Emilia would be eligible, several of them would’ve gone 10/10.
Let’s analyze, shall we? The AFI has a habit of naming mainstream pics that the Academy ignores. Examples in the last decade include Into the Woods, Inside Out, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Straight Outta Compton, Zootopia, Wonder Woman, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Knives Out, Soul, Nope, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Note the amount of animated features. This is where a nod for The Wild Robot wouldn’t have been unexpected. The fact that it didn’t land here is an indication of its chances in the Academy’s BP derby… none. The same might be said for Gladiator II. It’s been out of my top 10 and I had it placed 13th in Other Possibilities last weekend. Don’t be surprised it drops out of the top 15 in my next update.
Other features that could have benefitted from a spot here include The Substance, September 5, Nosferatu, Blitz, The Room Next Door, and recent Gotham recipient A Different Man.
That said… we don’t expect this to be the Oscar top ten…
Do we?!? It sure could be. Yes, that would be the first time AFI and the Academy match 10/10. Yet the only difference I have right now is The Substance over A Complete Unknown and the latter seems to be picking up some steam. We still have Critics Choice and their top ten en route. They’re another pretty reliable barometer. I’ll say right now, though, that at least 8 of AFI’s picks will be the Academy’s and perhaps more…
Keep an eye on this blog for all Oscar precursor chatter!
Moana 2, out this Thanksgiving weekend, was originally conceived as a Disney+ limited series before morphing into a proper sequel with a theatrical release. Now it’s widely expected to set the all-time record Turkey Day frame opening. David Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller direct with Auli’i Cravalho, Dwayne Johnson, Temuera Morrison, Nicole Scherzinger, Rachel House, and Alan Tudyk returning for voiceover work. Khaleesi Lambert-Tsuda, Rose Matafeo, and David Fane are among new cast lending behind the mic talents.
In 2016, Moana set the Friday to Sunday premiere record over Thanksgiving which still stands today… for the moment. The animated adventure also picked up two Oscar nominations in Animated Feature (where it lost to fellow Disney blockbuster Zootopia) and the Original Song “How Far I’ll Go”. That track came up short to “City of Stars” from La La Land.
The Mouse Factory waited until the last minute to lift the review embargo off of the sequel. It has a so-so 72% on Rotten Tomatoes (its predecessor has 95%) and 57 on Metacritic (Moana landed 81). That reaction likely won’t nab it one of the five slots in Animated Feature (though Disney should score a spot with Inside Out 2). As for songs, Lin-Manuel Miranda was involved in the tunes eight years ago. Without his involvement, don’t expect Moana 2‘s ditties to resonate with Academy voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
No, this is not a family friendly version of Oliver Stone’s 2012 drugs drama with John Travolta and Salma Hayek. Instead Swiss animator looks to make it two Best Animated Feature Oscar noms in a row with Savages (or Sauvages in French). The environmentally conscious stop-motion tale premiered at Cannes with stateside distribution still being worked out. The voice cast includes Babette De Coster, Martin Verset, Laetitia Dosch, and Benoit Poelvoorde.
The filmmaker’s previous full-length work was 2016’s My Life as a Zucchini, which made the contending quintet at the 89th Academy Awards (ultimately falling short to Zootopia). Reviews for Savages stand at 100% on RT based on a handful of write-ups. I would expect to see it in the mix for the 97th ceremony a few months down the road so be conscious of it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The American Film Institute announces their top ten pictures of the year tomorrow and it’s usually a good indication of half or more of the eventual BP contenders at the Oscars.
Keep in mind that American product only is eligible for this particular group. Since this list began in 2000, the Academy’s BP recipient has only missed here five times. Four of those occasions were due to the whole country of origin thing – 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s The King Speech, The Artist in 2011, and Parasite from 2019. The Departed in 2006 also didn’t make the cut. This means you shouldn’t expect Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Decision to Leave, or RRR to surface here.
So what will? The AFI ten and the Oscar ten had a solid match last year at 8. Tick, Tick… Boom! and The Tragedy of Macbeth were the AFI inclusions that didn’t make it with the Academy. They went with two features from outside the U.S. in Belfast and Drive My Car. In recent years, the match number is usually 6 or 7.
It’s not uncommon for AFI to pick blockbusters or animated fare that the Academy does not. Recent examples include Soul, Knives Out, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Wonder Woman, Zootopia, Inside Out,Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and Straight Outta Compton.
Let’s talk of the pics I have just missing the cut. It was hard to leave off Tár. If it fails to be named tomorrow, that would be two disappointing days in a row after it surprisingly missed the National Board of Review (NBR) list today. Same goes for She Said and The Whale while Till did make NBR. More popcorn flavored flicks like The Batman, Nope, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever are all viable contenders.
We shall see if any of them get in. Avatar, Babylon, Elvis, Glass Onion, Pinocchio, and The Woman King all feel like pics that should make it here if they have any hope of making the Academy’s cut. It is rare for the Oscars to nominate a more mainstream title that AFI doesn’t.
I’ll have a recap up tomorrow with commentary and how I did!
Disney has a history opening their animated product over the long Thanksgiving holiday and they’re back at it with Encanto. The Columbian themed musical fantasy comes from directors Byron Howard and Jared Bush, the creative team behind Zootopia. Featuring music from Lin-Manuel Miranda, the voice cast includes Stephanie Beatriz, John Leguizamo, Diane Guerrero, and Wilmer Valderrama.
Reviews are where they need to be with 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Mouse Factory rolled out their hits over the same five-day period from 2015-2018. Six years ago, the strategy produced the lowest premiere of the bunch with The Good Dinosaur. It made $39 million for the traditional Turkey Day weekend and $55 million when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday. The high point came a year later when Moana did $56 million and $82 million respectively. 2017’s Coco took in $50 million from Friday to Sunday and $72 million for the five-day. Ralph Breaks the Internet posted $56 million and $84 million the following Thanksgiving.
The Dinosaur haul was considered a disappointment, but that was during a pre-COVID era. If Encanto accomplishes what that pic did, it would be considered more than satisfactory. Family audiences have proven they’re up for a trip to the theater and have done so in the past few days. Clifford the Big Red Dog was a good boy at the box office when it lapped up $16 million last weekend from Friday to Sunday and $22 million overall as it started on Wednesday as well. If Clifford can do that, I imagine Encanto could double those grosses.
Encanto opening weekend prediction: $31.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $46.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The Best Animated Feature category at the Oscars was established in 2001 and since then, Disney has won the race 14 out of 20 times (including 8 out of the past 9). It’s safe to say they have a distinct advantage in the competition and that’s why Encanto has long been seen as a frontrunner. From 2016 winner Zootopia makers Byron Howard and Jared Bush, it features the voices of Stephanie Beatriz, John Leguizamo, Diane Guerrero, and Wilmer Valderrama.
With songs by Lin-Manuel Miranda, the musical fantasy opens over Thanksgiving and the review embargo lifted today. The current 92% Rotten Tomatoes rating is encouraging. The track “Dos Oruguitas” could put Miranda in the running for an EGOT. For the unfamiliar, that’s winning an Emmy, Tony, Oscar, and Grammy and only 16 people have done it. My guess is that Beyonce and her King Richard song “Be Alive” could prevent that from occurring.
I do believe Encanto stands the best chance of the 2021 Mouse Factory offerings to take the prize over Luca and Raya and the Last Dragon (which may miss the top five altogether). Yet there is a sturdy competitor with Flee, the Danish critically lauded effort that could make history with nods in Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, International Feature Film, and maybe even Best Picture. It’s a guessing game at the moment as to which of the first three it wins (if any). My best guess is that the animated competition is where it could do so and that could leave Encanto as runner-up.
That said, betting against Disney has been the correct call just 30% of the time. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
The American Film Institute will announce their top 10 pictures of the year tomorrow and it’s usually a safe predictor of half or more of the films that will land Best Picture nods at the Oscars. Over the past five years, the magic number has been 7 of the AFI selections getting Oscar love in the big race. That holds true for 2016, 2017, and 2019. In 2015 – it was 6. In 2018- it was 5.
So where do we stand this year? My overall estimates keep the estimated AFI number at 7 for my current Best Picture hopefuls (which could and probably will change). It is worth noting that for the previous two years, there’s a bit of an asterisk. Being that it’s the American Film Institute, foreign selections are ineligible. Due to this, surefire Oscar contenders Roma and Parasite didn’t qualify. This would apply in 2020 to The Father which is a British production.
As for the matches, they are as follows: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, and The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Now for the differences. AFI has shown a Disney love recently that the Academy did not share. AFI nominated Inside Out, Zootopia, and Mary Poppins Returns over the last five years with Oscar not following suit. Therefore I’m saying Pixar’s Soul makes the AFI cut.
The other two are critical favorites that (at press time) I have just missing Oscar’s cut: Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal. This means the three pics I have getting Oscar’s attention and not from AFI are Da 5 Bloods, The Father, and Judas and the Black Messiah.
What else could surprise? I would not be shocked to see Borat Subsequent Moviefilm make AFI’s list. If they don’t choose that comedy, there’s a lesser chance that Palm Springs could show up. AFI has also selected some blockbusters that Oscar ignored as of late. Examples include Knives Out, A Quiet Place, Wonder Woman, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. However, due to COVID in 2020, there’s just not a huge list of those types of contenders. Could Tenet sneak in? Doubtful.
Others that could be sleepers are First Cow, Pieces of a Woman, Malcolm & Marie, and Hillbilly Elegy, but here’s my take on what AFI does tomorrow:
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