Tag: Zach Cregger

September 25-27 Box Office Predictions

As September closes out, the top 5 should consist of 80% fresh product with four titles primed to gross $10 million and higher. However, current champ Resident Evil could maintain first position. We have the re-release of the MCU’s Avengers: Endgame Encore, DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island, Brad Pitt and a German Shepherd in the survival tale Heart of the Beast, and Robert Pattinson headlining the biographical thriller Primetime. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

Avengers: Endgame Encore Box Office Prediction
Forgotten Island Box Office Prediction
Heart of the Beast Box Office Prediction
Primetime Box Office Prediction

Let’s start with a caveat – this is an unpredictable frame. I believe all the newcomers have a shot at outperforming my forecasts. Avengers and Island, in particular, could exceed expectations and challenge for the top spot. My hunch is that, even with a 60% drop (fine for its genre), Resident Evil will maintain its #1 bragging rights with a mid-20s gross.

If I get the order of 2-5 right, I’ll be happy with myself. For the incoming quartet, I have all placing between $10-$20 million. With the advantage of following Spider-Man: Brand New Day and meant to drum up anticipation for December’s Avengers: Doomsday, Disney/Marvel’s Endgame return to theaters could approach the $20 million figure and I have it achieving runner-up status.

With solid reviews, Forgotten Island could be right behind in third or be second. The fact that it’s not based on known IP could be a hurdle for kiddos and parents to RSVP.

Pitt’s Beast, his first pic since last summer’s blockbuster F1, is also drawing decent critical reaction. Mid to high teens is certainly doable for a fourth place finish.

Primetime is perhaps the biggest unknown. With Pattinson as To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen, the trailer is buzzy as was reaction at the Venice Film Festival earlier this month. This might have more audience members seated than I’m estimating but my prognosis in the low teens has it rounding out the top five. I also wouldn’t be shocked if it fell between $8-13 million or even approached $20 million.

Here’s how I have this fascinating weekend shaking out:

1. Resident Evil

Predicted Gross: $24 million

2. Avengers: Endgame Encore

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

3. Forgotten Island

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

4. Heart of the Beast

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

5. Primetime

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

Box Office Results (September 18-20)

Horror enthusiasts and gamers came out in droves for Zach Cregger’s reboot of the Resident Evil franchise. The well-reviewed eighth overall entry in the series boasted a $60.1 million premiere, managing to top my $55.8 million prediction. That more than doubles the previous best of the bunch – 2010’s Resident Evil: Afterlife at $26 million and sets a personal best for the Weapons filmmaker.

Practical Magic 2 was second with a 60% fall in frame #2 as the witchy sequel made $12.1 million, in line with my $12.4 million take. Falling on the low end of its range, the two-week total is $50 million.

Summer holdovers populated slots 3-5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day was third with $6.4 million compared to my $4.7 million call. Earlier in the week, Day surpassed 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens to become the largest domestic grosser of all time at $944 million after eight weeks.

The Odyssey was fourth with $4.9 million (I said $4.6 million) as Christopher Nolan’s epic brought its tally to $609 million in ten weeks.

Finally, Coyote vs. Acme was fifth with $4.4 million, ahead of my $3.5 million projection for $54 million in four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Resident Evil

Before this week, the highest Rotten Tomatoes score among the seven Resident Evil pictures belonged to 2016’s Resident Evil: The Final Chapter at a whopping 37%. Of course, it was not the final chapter for the video game based franchise. Zach Cregger’s reboot opens this weekend where Evil is expected to post good grosses. Austin Abrams stars with a supporting cast including Zach Cherry, Kali Reis, and Paul Walter Hauser.

To say the Tomato record is broken is understatement as it sports 96% with Metacritic at 80 (Final Chapter also held the MC best at 49). Cregger’s predecessor Weapons was an unexpected summer smash in 2025 that won Amy Madigan a Supporting Actress Oscar as the witchy Aunt Gladys. The pic itself likely came close to nabbing Best Picture and Original Screenplay mentions.

Evil is not your typical awards player though Makeup & Hairstyling and Visual Effects are at least worthy of bringing up. Weapons might’ve come close to getting in for the latter. Despite the much better than expected critical reaction, I doubt this gets in those tech competitions but the shortlists will be worth monitoring down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

September 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Zach Cregger’s reboot of the Resident Evil franchise should easily dominate the box office charts and it’s the only new release I have in the top six. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Resident Evil Box Office Prediction

Coming off a massive summer 2025 hit with Weapons, Cregger’s latest should have no trouble achieving the best earnings of an Evil iteration. This is the eighth overall feature in the franchise that began in 2002. My mid 50s call has it doubling the current holder in 2010’s Resident Evil: Afterlife at $26 million.

That’s about it as far as intrigue for the weekend. Holdovers should populate slots 2-6 with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey battling it out for third and Coyote vs. Acme and Runner in a close competition for fifth. Practical Magic 2, after a subpar start, should fall to runner-up status with a decline that could approach 60%.. Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Resident Evil

Predicted Gross: $55.8 million

2. Practical Magic 2

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

3. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

4. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

6. Runner

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (September 11-13)

Audiences weren’t nearly as bewitched by Practical Magic 2 as I thought they might be. Arriving 28 years after the original, Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman’s return to witchy territory came in at the low end of expectations with $30 million. I thought it would conjure up $43.5 million. It did manage to knock off Spider-Man: Brand New Day after six weeks in first.

Spidey made $8.4 million compared to my $10.3 million projection. The MCU record breaker has amassed $935 million in seven weeks and will become the highest grossing domestic picture of all time early this week (beating out Star Wars: The Force Awakens).

The Odyssey was third with $7.5 million, a bit shy of my $8.6 million call for a fantastic $600 million after nine weeks of release.

I mistakenly undervalued Runner from Angel Studios with Alan Ritchson and Owen Wilson. I didn’t do an estimate for it, but the action comedy came in fourth with $6.4 million.

Coyote vs. Acme was right behind in fifth as it also made $6.4 million. The live-action/animated hybrid was in line with my $6.2 million forecast and is up to $47 million after three weeks.

Two other newcomers failed to attract eyeballs. South Korean sci-fi/action spectacle Hope was eighth with $3.2 million and $4.9 million since its Wednesday premiere. That’s well below my respective projections of $5.9 million and $9.4 million.

Andrew Garfield’s The Uprising was ninth with a paltry $3.3 million (I said $4.2 million). The Robin Hood origin story was another flop for that character after 2018’s Robin Hood and this summer’s The Death of Robin Hood.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Resident Evil Box Office Prediction

Adapted from the video games that kicked off 30 years ago, Resident Evil is rebooted for the second time on the big screen starting September 18th. It has the advantage of being directed by Zach Cregger. His Barbarian was a critical favorite in 2022 followed by the massive box office success ($150 million) of Weapons last year. Austin Abrams (who memorably appeared in Weapons) stars alongside Zach Cherry, Kali Reis, and Paul Walter Hauser.

Starting in 2002, Milla Jovovich headlined six Evil entries. The top opener was #4, Resident Evil: Afterlife and it took in $26 million for starters. Three others (parts 2, 3, 5) managed $20M+ out of the gate. However, audiences weren’t checking in by part 6 (The Final Chapter) which premiered with $13 million.

2021’s reboot Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City brought the pics to new lows with a debut just north of $5 million and $17 million overall stateside (both easy franchise lows). The tide should turn here in major fashion for the action horror series.

In a best case scenario, Cregger’s participation and a hunger from genre fans for fresh product could not only set an Evil best for opening weekends. That shouldn’t be an issue. This has the possibility of grossing $60M+ from Friday to Sunday and that would be more in three days than any Evil movie has made domestically in total. I think mid 50s is where it lands but don’t be too afraid to consider the over.

Resident Evil opening weekend prediction: $55.8 million

Oscar Predictions: Obsession

Curry Barker’s Obsession is out this weekend and exceeding expectations at the box office along with its glowing reviews. The horror flick about a granted wish gone horribly awry stands at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 77 Metacritic. Michael Johnston and Inde Navarrette headline with Cooper Tomlinson, Megan Lawless, and Andy Richter in the supporting cast.

This is not a genre that has historically performed well with awards voters. However, the Academy has shown a willingness to embrace it under the right circumstances. Obsession sports an A- Cinemascore grade. That’s very high for a scary movie and the first to do so since Zach Cregger’s Weapons. I bring it up because that movie ended up being Amy Madigan’s Oscar-winning Supporting Actress turn just two months ago. I suspect it also came close to an Original Screenplay nomination.

If Focus Features mounts a genuine campaign, I wouldn’t totally discount Navarrette’s chances in Best Actress. Her fatally attracted performance is receiving plenty of kudos as is Barker’s original screenplay. Obsession will not reach the financial heights of Cregger’s work even if it plays well throughout the summer. I wouldn’t count on it ultimately being an awards contender, but Weapons proved it’s a possibility at the previous ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Amy Madigan in Weapons

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our third contender among the Supporting Actress nominees is Amy Madigan for Weapons. If you missed the first two write-ups covering the performers from Sentimental Value, you can access them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Sentimental Value

Previous Acting Nomations:

1985 – Best Supporting Actress (Twice in a Lifetime) – lost to Anjelica Huston for Prizzi’s Honor

The Case for Amy Madigan:

The only thespian in the race who’s not a first-time nominee, Madigan’s work as the supremely creepy Aunt Gladys in Zach Cregger’s horror pic arrives 40 years after her initial nod for Twice in a Lifetime. She won the Critics Choice prize and has been nominated at the Globes and SAG Actor. If they bestowed the trophy based on number of Halloween costumed inspired by her role, Madigan would take this in a landslide.

The Case Against Amy Madigan:

Madigan was snubbed at BAFTA. You have to go back to 2018 and Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) to find the last Oscar recipient who didn’t make the cut there. Prior to that, it was Marcia Gay Harden (Pollock) in 2000. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) took the Globe as we await SAG. This genre doesn’t produce a lot of acting winners and Weapons missed all other categories including Original Screenplay and Makeup and Hairstyling. Penélope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona) is the last Supporting Actress honoree whose movie only got one nomination and that was in 2008.

The Verdict:

A SAG victory would elevate Madigan’s stock and she is probably runner-up in the race at the moment behind Taylor.

My Case Of posts will continue with third entrant in Supporting Actor – Delroy Lindo for Sinners…

September 5-7 Box Office Predictions

One Warner Bros horror flick looks to transfer the #1 spot to another as The Conjuring: Last Rites haunts multiplexes this weekend. We also have Disney releasing their filmed version of the Broadway play Hamilton. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The Conjuring: Last Rites Box Office Prediction
Hamilton Box Office Prediction

My mid 50s projection for Last Rites gives it the best opening of the franchise, just outpacing 2018’s The Nun and toppling the $40 million and change starts that the first two proper Conjuring flicks scared up. As mentioned, it will easily replace the WB’s Weapons from its Labor Day weekend perch atop the charts.

Hamilton is a tricky one. It could easily outdo my high single digits forecast, but it’s hard to ignore that audiences have been able to view it on Disney+ for five years. No matter what, it should manage a runner-up debut.

Weapons should place third while 4-5 could be awfully close between Caught Stealing and Freakier Friday.

Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $58.2 million

2. Hamilton

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

3. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

4. Caught Stealing

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (August 29-September 1)

In a rather quiet Labor Day frame, Weapons returned to #1 with KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event having completed its two-day engagement from the previous frame. Zach Cregger’s missing persons scare fest took in $13 million, falling short of my $15.9 million call over the four-day holiday. The four-week total is $135 million.

Jaws 50th Anniversary swam past my expectations with $11.3 million for second, more than doubling my $5.6 million prediction. Crowds clearly were down for revisiting the shark tale.

Austin Butler crime thriller Caught Stealing nabbed a so-so $9.5 million in third and that was more than my $6.3 million projection.

Freakier Friday was fourth with $8.7 million, in range with my $9.4 million estimate for a four-week tally of $82 million.

Comedic remake The Roses with Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman settled for fifth with $7.7 million, in line with my $7.9 million guesstimate.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps was sixth with $6.5 million (I said $6.1 million) for $266 million after six weeks.

Finally, The Toxic Avenger Unrated with Peter Dinklage didn’t crack the top 10 at $2.1 million. I went with $1.8 million.

And that does it now, folks! Until next time…

August 29-September 1 Box Office Predictions

Three newcomers and one summer classic celebrating a half century in existence will work hard to earn box office dollars this Labor Day weekend. We have comedy remake The Roses with Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman, Darren Aronofsky’s crime thriller Caught Stealing starring Austin Butler and Zoë Kravitz, Peter Dinklage in the splatter reboot The Toxic Avenger Unrated, and the 50th anniversary reissue of Steven Spielberg’s Jaws out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:

The Roses Box Office Prediction
Caught Stealing Box Office Prediction
Jaws 50th Anniversary Box Office Prediction
The Toxic Avenger Unrated Box Office Prediction

We’ll discuss Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event in the results section below. We know it won’t be #1 since the streamer put it out only as a two-day multiplex event on Saturday and Sunday this past weekend.

That means Weapons should return to the top spot as I don’t see the fresh foursome challenging it. The acclaimed horror flick should remain in the teens as holdovers usually have meager declines or even slight increases over the Friday to Monday of Labor Day weekend compared to the previous weekend.

The Roses could manage the best start of the new titles though I have it slightly behind the fourth weekend of Freakier Friday.

Caught Stealing might be stuck in fourth with The Fantastic Four: First Steps just behind in fifth and the Jaws reissue in sixth.

As for Toxic, my $1.8 million guesstimate puts it far down the charts.

The only placement I’m confident in is Weapons in 1st while the others jockey for position. Keep in mind that these estimates are made for the four-day holiday and here’s how I envision the top six:

1. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

2. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

3. The Roses

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

4. Caught Stealing

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

6. Jaws 50th Anniversary

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (August 22-24)

After two months plus on the streaming service, Netflix made an unconventional move by releasing a sing-along version of their massive hit KPop Demon Hunters on Saturday and Sunday. They were conventional in not officially reporting its numbers. However, estimates put it at $19.2 million and that’s ahead of my $13.8 million call and easily strong enough for 1st place. With an over $11k plus per screen average, kids had no trouble getting their folks to bring them out. The specialized engagement is only for the aforementioned two days.

Weapons was second with $15.4 million, just under my $16.1 million projection. Zach Cregger’s disappearance tale has amassed $115 million in three weeks.

Freakier Friday was third with $8.8 million, on pace with my $8.7 million forecast. The Disney sequel has taken in $70 million after three weeks.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps, in week five, was fourth with $6 million (I said $5.8 million) for $257 million thus far.

The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $5.1 million, in line with my $5.2 million call for $66 million in four weeks.

Action sequel Nobody 2 tumbled 60% in its sophomore outing with $3.7 million. I was a bit more generous at $4.8 million. The tally is a mere $16 million.

Finally, Ethan Coen’s noirish comedy Honey Don’t! opened in 8th with $3 million. That’s nothing to brag about, but it did outshine my $1.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 22-24 Box Office Predictions

We’re in the dog days of August as Weapons seeks to three-peat at #1 this weekend though a fascinating challenger could emerge depending on Netflix’s reporting. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event looks to capitalize on its massively successful animated streaming numbers with a Saturday and Sunday engagement of theatrical screenings. We also have Ethan Coen’s dark comedy Honey Don’t! out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event Box Office Prediction
Honey Don’t! Box Office Prediction

KPop Demon Hunters is already the highest viewed Netflix animated picture in history. The streamer decided to give it the silver screen sing-along treatment this Saturday and Sunday only. Here’s the catch: Netflix usually doesn’t report their numbers. I think they could make an exception due to the unprecedented nature of this release. If they do, I believe low teens is doable and maybe even more. If it manages to post a 1st or 2nd place debut, I would think Netflix would want the bragging rights. We shall see what they decide.

As for Don’t!, my lowly $1.8 million projection won’t get it in the top five regardless of whether KPop unveils its grosses. After receiving middling reviews from Cannes and being put out on a meager 1200 screens, look for this to fade rapidly.

That leaves holdovers and Weapons may see a drop in the mid 30s to repeat at #1. In fact, the top five should remain the same quintet if KPop isn’t in the mix. However, I suspect Nobody 2 might have the largest percentage drop and that could result in a fall from third to fifth (or fourth to sixth). That would allow The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 to each rise a spot with Freakier Friday either remaining runner-up or being third.

Here’s my top 6 take with the caveat that KPop‘s placement might not occur:

1. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

**2. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

3. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

6. Nobody

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

Box Office Results (August 15-17)

Weapons easily pummeled the competition yet again in its sophomore frame with $24.4 million, right in line with my $24.9 million call. Zach Cregger’s critically hailed horror thriller is up to $88 million after ten days.

Freakier Friday was second in weekend #2 with $14.2 million, slightly exceeding my forecast of $13 million. The Disney sequel has made $54 million.

Action sequel Nobody 2 with Bob Odenkirk opened at the lower end of expectations with $9.2 million, failing to catch my $11.3 million projection. While it managed to outdo its 2021 predecessor, the original faced COVID challenges.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps was fourth with $9 million (I said $7.5 million). The MCU pic’s tally is $247 million after four weeks.

The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $7.5 million. The 29% decline meant it surpassed my $5.5 million take. The animated sequel has earned $53 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Action sequel Nobody 2 starring Bob Odenkirk is the only wide release vying for a spot in the top five this weekend as Weapons aims to repeat in first place. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:

Nobody 2 Box Office Prediction

The first Nobody in 2021 premiered as COVID was presenting challenges to theaters. The follow-up is expected to build upon on the original’s numbers. I still question whether this gets to teens and I am putting it a shade under. That likely means a third place showing.

Weapons from Zach Cregger had a spectacular debut (more on that below). With an A- Cinemascore (impressive for the genre), its sophomore dip could be less pronounced than other summer offerings. Lack of competition should also help. I will warn that my drop-off projections have been a bit generous lately. Yet I’ll say a low to mid 40s ease should mean a mid 20s gross and that leaves it in first with room to spare.

As for Freakier Friday, it could fall more than 50% and still remain in second. Holdovers The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 should round out the high five. Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

2. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $13 million

3. Nobody 2

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

5. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (August 8-10)

Weapons capitalized on its intriguing trailer and laudatory reviews, dominating the chart with $43.5 million. That’s way ahead of my meager $28.8 million take and another 2025 winner for Warner Bros. While I don’t see it legging out like Sinners (another WB property), the road ahead should be fruitful.

Disney’s Freakier Friday with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan had to settle for second with $28.5 million. That’s on the lower end of its expected range and a bit below my $32.5 million prediction. It’ll hope for family audiences to keep it afloat in the coming weeks. That could be a tall order with its intended audience going back to school.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps, after two weeks at #1, was third with $15.7 million. The near 60% plummet (again) was under my $18.9 million estimate and the reboot stands at $230 million.

The Bad Guys 2 was fourth with $10.5 million in its second go-round. Once again I was more generous at $13.6 million. The animated sequel has made $43 million and is likely to fall short of its predecessor’s domestic tally ($97 million).

The Naked Gun rounded out the top five with $8.3 million and I said it would do $10 million. The two-week total is $32 million.

Finally, Sketch from Angel Studios debuted in lowly 10th place with $2.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.9 million since its Wednesday bow. I went with $3.9 million and $5.8 million, respectively.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…