The British import BlindedbytheLight illuminates theaters this coming weekend after receiving glowing reviews from its debut earlier this year at the Sundance Film Festival. From director Gurinder Chadha, who made the breakout hit BendItLikeBeckham, the dramedy focuses on a teenager whose life is transformed by the music of Bruce Springsteen. Viveik Kalra is said teenager and the supporting cast includes Hayley Atwell, Rob Brydon, and Nell Williams.
As mentioned, Blinded was shown on the fest circuit and a 92% Rotten Tomatoes score followed. The pic would love to follow in the footsteps of this summer’s sleeper hit Yesterday, which rode its Beatles musical connection to impressive box office grosses. The ability for this to over perform is possible, but the likely scenario is a mid single digits premiere while it hopes to develop legs over subsequent weekends.
BlindedbytheLight opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million
For my TheAngryBirdsMovie2 prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (07/31): My Hobbs&Shaw estimate has dropped from $82.6 million to $72.6 million
It might be the last blockbuster of the summer 2019 season as Hobbs&Shaw debuts in the first frame of August. Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham headline the first spin-off of the FastandFurious franchise. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
While I don’t have it quite reaching the heights of the last three traditional Fast features, my low 80s projection revs it up for an easy and solid #1 debut, knocking TheLionKing from its two week perch atop the charts.
OnceUpon a TimeinHollywood should slip to third after a fine start (more on that below) with mega hit holdovers Spider–Man: FarFromHome and ToyStory4 filling out the top five.
There is a potential wild card this weekend with TheFarewell. The Awkwafina led comedy has been a winner with critics and performed quite well in limited release. It’s slated for nationwide expansion on Friday. However, without a theater count, I’m not totally comfortable placing it in the top five. That could change and I’ll update my post if so.
Here’s how I have the weekend playing out:
Predicted Gross: $72.6 million
Predicted Gross: $38.7 million
Predicted Gross: $20.7 million
4. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
TheLionKing, as anticipated, had no trouble staying put in first in weekend #2, though it did drop a bit further than many (including I) figured. The Disney smash grossed $76.6 million (down 60%) compared to my $86.5 million take. In ten days, King has brought in a ransom of $351 million.
Quentin Tarantino achieved the biggest traditional Friday to Sunday debut of his career with OnceUponaTimeinHollywood. With $41 million (I was a touch lower at $38.7 million), the film capitalized on great reviews and the considerable star wattage of Leonardo Dicaprio, Brad Pitt, and Margot Robbie. It will be interesting to see how Hollywood legs out with a so-so B CinemaScore grade in future weekends.
Spider–Man: FarFromHome was third with $12.4 million (I said $13 million) to bring its tally to $344 million.
ToyStory4 had the four spot at $10.4 million, in line with my $10.8 million prediction. Total is $396 million.
I incorrectly had Crawl outside the high five, but it was fifth with $4 million to bring its three week earnings to $31 million.
Yesterday was sixth with $3 million (I went with $3.6 million) for an impressive $63 million overall.
Quentin Tarantino’s acclaimed OnceUponaTimeinHollywood with Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt is the sole fresh wide release this weekend. It looks to have a strong second place showing behind the sophomore frame of the record breaking TheLionKing. You can find my detailed prediction post on it here:
I have Mr. Tarantino’s ninth feature just barely topping his previous traditional weekend opening earner from a decade ago, InglouriousBasterds. My original estimate put it in the mid 40s, but I’ve had a gut feeling over the weekend that it won’t quite hit $40 million.
As for the behemoth King, I see a dip in the mid 50s range that would put it in the mid 80s. That’s similar to the drop experienced by last summer’s Incredibles2.
Spider–Man: FarFromHome looks to be third with ToyStory4 in fourth position. I look for Yesterday to vault over Crawl to remain in fifth place.
And with that, my take on the late July weekend ahead:
Predicted Gross: $86.5 million
Predicted Gross: $38.7 million
3. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $13 million
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
Disney’s magical summer continued in two significant ways. TheLionKing easily broke the all time July record with a roaring $191.7 million and that’s right in line with my $192.7 million projection. That captures the high mark previously set by HarryPotterandtheDeathlyHallowsPart2 by over $20 million.
Secondly, Avengers: Endgame took the #1 spot as the largest worldwide hit in history. At $2.7 billion, it has now edged out Avatar.
After two weeks on top, Spider–Man: FarFromHome slipped to second with $21.2 million compared to my $22.4 million take. The three week tally is $319 million.
ToyStory4 was third with $15.5 million as it elevated over my $13.2 million forecast. Total is $376 million with $400 million in its sights.
Crawl was fourth in weekend #2 with $6 million (I said $5.4 million) for $23 million in two weeks.
Yesterday rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The musical dramedy made $5 million for $57 million overall.
I had Aladdin holding stronger than it did at $5.5 million. It made $4 million for seventh place behind Stuber ($4.1 million). This Mouse Factory live action rendering is up to $340 million.
Disney once again looks to dominate the box office this weekend as TheLionKing stomps into theaters with Spider–Man: FarFromHome and ToyStory4 in the runner-up positions. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the Mouse Factory’s latest live-action rendering of an animated classic here:
TheLionKing could be poised for a top ten all-time debut and my estimate puts in at #8, behind BlackPanther but just ahead of Avengers: AgeofUltron.
Spider–Man, after two impressive weeks on top, should dip to second and lose around 50% of its volume with ToyStory4 in third.
Crawl, after a fair opening, might experience a drop of over 50%. That could put in a battle for fourth with Aladdin. That Disney update may well return to the top five when considering its likely drive-in pairings with the weekend’s champ.
Here’s how I have the top five playing out:
Predicted Gross: $192.7 million
2. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $22.4 million
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
The MCU, as anticipated, had no trouble staying atop the charts as Spider–Man: FarFromHome took in $45.3 million in its sophomore frame. That’s in line with my $43.5 million projection as the sequel now stands at $274 million.
ToyStory4 was second with $20.9 million (I said $20.7 million) for $346 million overall.
Crawl was an interesting case study. The alligator horror flick took in $12 million for third, a bit shy of my $14.2 million take. Considering its reported $13.5 million price tag, that’s a decent result. However, Paramount made a curious choice not screening it for critics and it ended up getting solid reviews. One wonders if the studio had let word of mouth percolate, if the numbers could have been higher.
The other newcomer was the Kumail Nanjiani/Dave Bautista comedy Stuber and it stalled in fourth with just $8.2 million compared to my $10.8 million prediction.
Yesterday rounded out the top five with $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) for $48 million total.
The newcomers this weekend are a bit low key and not your weekly dose of wannabe blockbusters as the alligator horror flick Crawl and Kumail Nanjiani/Dave Bautista action comedy Stuber debut. Neither have much of a shot of bitIng into the dominance of Spider–Man: FarFromHome. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
Crawl hopes to snag a sizable portion of moviegoers who have recently feasted on shark tales. I think that’ll equate to low to mid teens and third place.
As for Stuber, its rather generic ad campaign and middling reviews may mean it struggles to hit teens. That likely means fourth place.
After a terrific start, FarFromHome should easily hang onto first position. It’s worth noting that predecessor Spider–Man: Homecoming fell a steep 62% in its sophomore outing. While I don’t see this dipping that much, a drop of over 50% seems feasible.
Barring a surprising performance from the fresh players, ToyStory4 will play in second with Yesterday rounding out the top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $43.6 million
Predicted Gross: $20.7 million
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
The Marvel Cinematic Universe ruled the long holiday weekend as Spider–Man: FarFromHome kept the gravy train rolling for Disney. Since its debut on Tuesday, the sequel has made $185 million. That’s just a tad under my $190.4 million projection. For the Friday to Sunday traditional frame, it made $92.5 million. My estimate? $92.5 million!!!
ToyStory4 was second at $33.8 million, topping my $28.9 million prediction. In ten days, the Pixar pic crossed the triple century mark at $306 million.
Yesterday displayed a sturdy hold in third with $10 million (I said $11.2 million). Total is $36 million.
AnnabelleComesHome was fourth with $9.4 million, a bit more than my $8.1 million take for $49 million overall.
I incorrectly left Aladdin outside the top five, but that’s where it was with $7.5 million. The impressive tally has risen to $320 million.
Finally, acclaimed horror entry Midsommar was sixth with $6.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.9 million since its Wednesday start. That’s below my respective estimates of $7.8 million and $13.2 million.
The box office could use some fireworks this weekend and they should come courtesy of the MCU with tomorrow’s release of Spider–Man: FarFromHome. On Wednesday, the critically acclaimed horror pic Midsommar hits the market. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
Spidey will easily dominate the long holiday weekend and I have it slinging nearly $200 million over its six-day rollout with just over $90 million of that coming in the traditional Friday to Sunday frame.
As for Midsommar, I’m a bit more skeptical that a large audience will turn up. I’m putting it at low teens for the five day period with under $10 million for the regular weekend.
ToyStory4 should relinquish the top spot and fall to second place after two weeks in first. Yesterday, after a healthy start, should continue to ride solid word of mouth and remain in third. That would vault it over AnnabelleComesHome in its sophomore outing and that demented doll sequel is likely to duke it out with Midsommar for fourth place.
And with that, my patriotic forecast for the week ahead:
1. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $92.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $190.4 million (Tuesday to Sunday)
Predicted Gross: $28.9 million
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
ToyStory4 played again atop the charts with $59.7 million, in line with my $60.3 million prediction. The Pixar fourquel stands at $238 million after ten days of release.
AnnabelleComesHome opened in second and with a bit less than anticipated. The Conjuring Cinematic Universe entry took in $20.2 million from Friday to Sunday with $31.1 million since the Wednesday start. That’s less than its predecessors, but not too shabby considering the reported $30 million budget. I went higher with respective projections of $27.4 million and $38 million.
Yesterday had a rocking start in third at $17 million, blowing away my $9.1 million forecast. With a sturdy A- CinemaScore grade, I expect this to stick around for a while.
Aladdin reached the triple century mark ($306 million overall) and was fourth with $10.1 million (I said $9.7 million).
Finally, TheSecretLifeofPets2 held the five spot with $7.3 million compared to my $5.7 million prediction. Total is $131 million.
Another creepy doll looks to hit the runner-up spot while ToyStory4 stays in first place this weekend as Conjuring Cinematic Universe entry AnnabelleComesHome debuts. We also have the high concept musical comedy Yesterday out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both newcomers here:
It seems awfully risky in the summer of 2019 to project that a sequel will come close to meeting expectations. Not even ToyStory4 managed to do that (more on that below), but that’s where I’m at by saying Annabelle will gross in the high 20s for its Friday to Sunday earnings and high 30s when taking in the Wednesday and Thursday money.
As mentioned, Pixar’s fourth pairing of Woody and Buzz should have no trouble maintaining top position. ToyStory3 dipped 46% in its sophomore frame and I look for this to lose around half its volume.
Yesterday, in my view, once had breakout potential. However, so-so reviews don’t help. My estimate for The Beatles themed pic puts it just behind Aladdin in fourth place. TheSecretLifeofPets2 may stay put in fifth as I figure the drops for Child’sPlay and MeninBlack: International will be more severe.
And with that, my top five for the weekend:
Predicted Gross: $60.3 million
Predicted Gross: $27.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $38 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
Pixar scored yet another hit with ToyStory4. Yet the acclaimed sequel (arriving nine years after part three) unquestionably made less than anticipated at $120.9 million. While that’s $10 million over its predecessor, that’s a far cry from my $167.5 million forecast. And even if you think I was being generous, the floor for most projections was around $140 million. I wouldn’t feel too bad for Disney as they’re having a terrific year thus far.
The return of Chucky was met with ambivalence as Child’sPlay was second with $14 million compared to my $17.6 million prediction. Look for it to fade fast, especially with that other dastardly doll arriving Wednesday. The reboot only cost a reported $10 million to make so United Artists shouldn’t be too upset either.
Aladdin was third with $13.2 million (I said $13 million) and it’s up to $288 million in the coffers.
MeninBlack: International tumbled from first to fourth with $10.7 million, below my $13.1 million projection for just $52 million. This reboot, like DarkPhoenix before it, looks to come in under $100 million domestically.
TheSecretLifeofPets2 rounded out the top five with $10.2 million. I was higher at $12.6 million. The three-week tally is $117 million.
Finally, the Luc Besson action thriller Anna was a flop in ninth with $3.6 million. My prediction? $3.6 million! That almost makes up for being $40 million plus off ToyStory4! Ok maybe not…