After premiering at Telluride and Toronto last fall, the South African drama Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight is in limited release stateside. It marks the directorial debut of actress Embeth Davidtz and is based on Alexandra Fuller’s 2001 memoir. Lexi Venter, Zikhona Bali, Fumani Shilubana, Rob Van Vuuren, Anina Reed, and Davidtz herself are in the ensemble.
With Sony Pictures Classics handling distribution, it will interesting to see if they mount a serious campaign for Best International Feature. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 93% with Metacritic at 74. South Africa saw two of its pictures nominated in the foreign country – Yesterday in 2004 and Tsotsi in 2005 (it won). Two decades have passed so getting this on voter radar screens could be a tall order. If Sony looks elsewhere, they could campaign lead Vinter for Best Young Performer at the BAFTAs. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
On Monday, one of the most significant Oscar precursors announces their nominations. Yes, we have the Golden Globe nods coming out with the SAG Awards following on Wednesday (except my predictions on them early this week).
While I’ve been updating my Oscar projections on a near weekly basis, I don’t do the same with the Globes. This will serve as my first and last batch of predictions for the ceremony airing in January with Ricky Gervais hosting.
As you’re likely aware, this show does it a bit different than the Oscars by splitting their film and lead actor categories into separate Drama and Musical/Comedy categories. For each race, I’m making my five predicted features or performers that I believe will make the cut as well as a first and second alternate.
Let’s get to it!
Best Motion Picture – Drama
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Little Women
Marriage Story
1st Alternate – Joker
2nd Alternate – The Two Popes
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Cats
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
1st Alternate – Dolemite Is My Name
2nd Alternate – Hustlers
Best Director
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1st Alternate – Greta Gerwig, Little Women
2nd Alternate – James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari
Best Actress – Drama
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
1st Alternate – Lupita Nyong’o, Us
2nd Alternate – Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Best Actor – Drama
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
1st Alternate – Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
2nd Alternate – Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Best Actress – Comedy or Musical
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Constance Wu, Hustlers
1st Alternate – Cate Blanchett, Where’d You Go, Bernadette
2nd Alternate – Kaitlyn Dever, Booksmart
Best Actor – Comedy or Musical
Daniel Craig, Knives Out
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
1st Alternate – Shia LaBeouf, The Peanut Butter Falcon
2nd Alternate – Himesh Patel, Yesterday
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
1st Alternate – Annette Bening, The Report
2nd Alternate – Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1st Alternate – Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
2nd Alternate – Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Best Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
1st Alternate – The Two Popes
2nd Alternate – Knives Out
Best Motion Picture – Animated
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
1st Alternate – Weathering with You
2nd Alternate – Abominable
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
Atlantics
The Farewell
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
1st Alternate – Les Miserables
2nd Alternate – Monos
Best Original Score
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1st Alternate – The Aeronauts
2nd Alternate – Us
Best Original Song
“Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats
“Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
“Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
“Spirit” from The Lion King
1st Alternate – “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4
2nd Alternate – “Stand Up” from Harriet
And that equates to the following features nabbing these numbers when it comes to nominations:
7 Nominations
Marriage Story
6 Nominations
The Irishman
5 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4 Nominations
Jojo Rabbit, Little Women
3 Nominations
1917, Knives Out, Parasite, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Bombshell, Cats, The Farewell, Ford v Ferrari, Frozen II, Hustlers, Joker, Pain and Glory, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Atlantics, Booksmart, Dolemite Is My Name, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, I Lost My Body, Judy, Late Night, The Lion King, Missing Link, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Toy Story 4
Rest assured that I will have a post up with reaction to the Monday announcements with a recap on how I did! Until then…
The British import BlindedbytheLight illuminates theaters this coming weekend after receiving glowing reviews from its debut earlier this year at the Sundance Film Festival. From director Gurinder Chadha, who made the breakout hit BendItLikeBeckham, the dramedy focuses on a teenager whose life is transformed by the music of Bruce Springsteen. Viveik Kalra is said teenager and the supporting cast includes Hayley Atwell, Rob Brydon, and Nell Williams.
As mentioned, Blinded was shown on the fest circuit and a 92% Rotten Tomatoes score followed. The pic would love to follow in the footsteps of this summer’s sleeper hit Yesterday, which rode its Beatles musical connection to impressive box office grosses. The ability for this to over perform is possible, but the likely scenario is a mid single digits premiere while it hopes to develop legs over subsequent weekends.
BlindedbytheLight opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million
For my TheAngryBirdsMovie2 prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (07/31): My Hobbs&Shaw estimate has dropped from $82.6 million to $72.6 million
It might be the last blockbuster of the summer 2019 season as Hobbs&Shaw debuts in the first frame of August. Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham headline the first spin-off of the FastandFurious franchise. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
While I don’t have it quite reaching the heights of the last three traditional Fast features, my low 80s projection revs it up for an easy and solid #1 debut, knocking TheLionKing from its two week perch atop the charts.
OnceUpon a TimeinHollywood should slip to third after a fine start (more on that below) with mega hit holdovers Spider–Man: FarFromHome and ToyStory4 filling out the top five.
There is a potential wild card this weekend with TheFarewell. The Awkwafina led comedy has been a winner with critics and performed quite well in limited release. It’s slated for nationwide expansion on Friday. However, without a theater count, I’m not totally comfortable placing it in the top five. That could change and I’ll update my post if so.
Here’s how I have the weekend playing out:
1. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $72.6 million
2. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $38.7 million
3. OnceUponaTimeinHollywood
Predicted Gross: $20.7 million
4. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
5. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (July26–28)
TheLionKing, as anticipated, had no trouble staying put in first in weekend #2, though it did drop a bit further than many (including I) figured. The Disney smash grossed $76.6 million (down 60%) compared to my $86.5 million take. In ten days, King has brought in a ransom of $351 million.
Quentin Tarantino achieved the biggest traditional Friday to Sunday debut of his career with OnceUponaTimeinHollywood. With $41 million (I was a touch lower at $38.7 million), the film capitalized on great reviews and the considerable star wattage of Leonardo Dicaprio, Brad Pitt, and Margot Robbie. It will be interesting to see how Hollywood legs out with a so-so B CinemaScore grade in future weekends.
Spider–Man: FarFromHome was third with $12.4 million (I said $13 million) to bring its tally to $344 million.
ToyStory4 had the four spot at $10.4 million, in line with my $10.8 million prediction. Total is $396 million.
I incorrectly had Crawl outside the high five, but it was fifth with $4 million to bring its three week earnings to $31 million.
Yesterday was sixth with $3 million (I went with $3.6 million) for an impressive $63 million overall.
Quentin Tarantino’s acclaimed OnceUponaTimeinHollywood with Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt is the sole fresh wide release this weekend. It looks to have a strong second place showing behind the sophomore frame of the record breaking TheLionKing. You can find my detailed prediction post on it here:
I have Mr. Tarantino’s ninth feature just barely topping his previous traditional weekend opening earner from a decade ago, InglouriousBasterds. My original estimate put it in the mid 40s, but I’ve had a gut feeling over the weekend that it won’t quite hit $40 million.
As for the behemoth King, I see a dip in the mid 50s range that would put it in the mid 80s. That’s similar to the drop experienced by last summer’s Incredibles2.
Spider–Man: FarFromHome looks to be third with ToyStory4 in fourth position. I look for Yesterday to vault over Crawl to remain in fifth place.
And with that, my take on the late July weekend ahead:
1. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $86.5 million
2. OnceUponaTimeinHollywood
Predicted Gross: $38.7 million
3. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $13 million
4. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
5. Yesterday
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (July19–21)
Disney’s magical summer continued in two significant ways. TheLionKing easily broke the all time July record with a roaring $191.7 million and that’s right in line with my $192.7 million projection. That captures the high mark previously set by HarryPotterandtheDeathlyHallowsPart2 by over $20 million.
Secondly, Avengers: Endgame took the #1 spot as the largest worldwide hit in history. At $2.7 billion, it has now edged out Avatar.
After two weeks on top, Spider–Man: FarFromHome slipped to second with $21.2 million compared to my $22.4 million take. The three week tally is $319 million.
ToyStory4 was third with $15.5 million as it elevated over my $13.2 million forecast. Total is $376 million with $400 million in its sights.
Crawl was fourth in weekend #2 with $6 million (I said $5.4 million) for $23 million in two weeks.
Yesterday rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The musical dramedy made $5 million for $57 million overall.
I had Aladdin holding stronger than it did at $5.5 million. It made $4 million for seventh place behind Stuber ($4.1 million). This Mouse Factory live action rendering is up to $340 million.
Disney once again looks to dominate the box office this weekend as TheLionKing stomps into theaters with Spider–Man: FarFromHome and ToyStory4 in the runner-up positions. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the Mouse Factory’s latest live-action rendering of an animated classic here:
TheLionKing could be poised for a top ten all-time debut and my estimate puts in at #8, behind BlackPanther but just ahead of Avengers: AgeofUltron.
Spider–Man, after two impressive weeks on top, should dip to second and lose around 50% of its volume with ToyStory4 in third.
Crawl, after a fair opening, might experience a drop of over 50%. That could put in a battle for fourth with Aladdin. That Disney update may well return to the top five when considering its likely drive-in pairings with the weekend’s champ.
Here’s how I have the top five playing out:
1. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $192.7 million
2. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $22.4 million
3. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
5. Crawl
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
BoxOfficeResults (July12–14)
The MCU, as anticipated, had no trouble staying atop the charts as Spider–Man: FarFromHome took in $45.3 million in its sophomore frame. That’s in line with my $43.5 million projection as the sequel now stands at $274 million.
ToyStory4 was second with $20.9 million (I said $20.7 million) for $346 million overall.
Crawl was an interesting case study. The alligator horror flick took in $12 million for third, a bit shy of my $14.2 million take. Considering its reported $13.5 million price tag, that’s a decent result. However, Paramount made a curious choice not screening it for critics and it ended up getting solid reviews. One wonders if the studio had let word of mouth percolate, if the numbers could have been higher.
The other newcomer was the Kumail Nanjiani/Dave Bautista comedy Stuber and it stalled in fourth with just $8.2 million compared to my $10.8 million prediction.
Yesterday rounded out the top five with $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) for $48 million total.
The newcomers this weekend are a bit low key and not your weekly dose of wannabe blockbusters as the alligator horror flick Crawl and Kumail Nanjiani/Dave Bautista action comedy Stuber debut. Neither have much of a shot of bitIng into the dominance of Spider–Man: FarFromHome. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
Crawl hopes to snag a sizable portion of moviegoers who have recently feasted on shark tales. I think that’ll equate to low to mid teens and third place.
As for Stuber, its rather generic ad campaign and middling reviews may mean it struggles to hit teens. That likely means fourth place.
After a terrific start, FarFromHome should easily hang onto first position. It’s worth noting that predecessor Spider–Man: Homecoming fell a steep 62% in its sophomore outing. While I don’t see this dipping that much, a drop of over 50% seems feasible.
Barring a surprising performance from the fresh players, ToyStory4 will play in second with Yesterday rounding out the top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $43.6 million
2. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $20.7 million
3. Crawl
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
4. Stuber
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
5. Yesterday
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
BoxOfficeResults (July5–7)
The Marvel Cinematic Universe ruled the long holiday weekend as Spider–Man: FarFromHome kept the gravy train rolling for Disney. Since its debut on Tuesday, the sequel has made $185 million. That’s just a tad under my $190.4 million projection. For the Friday to Sunday traditional frame, it made $92.5 million. My estimate? $92.5 million!!!
ToyStory4 was second at $33.8 million, topping my $28.9 million prediction. In ten days, the Pixar pic crossed the triple century mark at $306 million.
Yesterday displayed a sturdy hold in third with $10 million (I said $11.2 million). Total is $36 million.
AnnabelleComesHome was fourth with $9.4 million, a bit more than my $8.1 million take for $49 million overall.
I incorrectly left Aladdin outside the top five, but that’s where it was with $7.5 million. The impressive tally has risen to $320 million.
Finally, acclaimed horror entry Midsommar was sixth with $6.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.9 million since its Wednesday start. That’s below my respective estimates of $7.8 million and $13.2 million.
The box office could use some fireworks this weekend and they should come courtesy of the MCU with tomorrow’s release of Spider–Man: FarFromHome. On Wednesday, the critically acclaimed horror pic Midsommar hits the market. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
Spidey will easily dominate the long holiday weekend and I have it slinging nearly $200 million over its six-day rollout with just over $90 million of that coming in the traditional Friday to Sunday frame.
As for Midsommar, I’m a bit more skeptical that a large audience will turn up. I’m putting it at low teens for the five day period with under $10 million for the regular weekend.
ToyStory4 should relinquish the top spot and fall to second place after two weeks in first. Yesterday, after a healthy start, should continue to ride solid word of mouth and remain in third. That would vault it over AnnabelleComesHome in its sophomore outing and that demented doll sequel is likely to duke it out with Midsommar for fourth place.
And with that, my patriotic forecast for the week ahead:
1. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $92.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $190.4 million (Tuesday to Sunday)
2. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $28.9 million
3. Yesterday
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. AnnabelleComesHome
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
5. Midsommar
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
BoxOfficeResults (June28–30)
ToyStory4 played again atop the charts with $59.7 million, in line with my $60.3 million prediction. The Pixar fourquel stands at $238 million after ten days of release.
AnnabelleComesHome opened in second and with a bit less than anticipated. The Conjuring Cinematic Universe entry took in $20.2 million from Friday to Sunday with $31.1 million since the Wednesday start. That’s less than its predecessors, but not too shabby considering the reported $30 million budget. I went higher with respective projections of $27.4 million and $38 million.
Yesterday had a rocking start in third at $17 million, blowing away my $9.1 million forecast. With a sturdy A- CinemaScore grade, I expect this to stick around for a while.
Aladdin reached the triple century mark ($306 million overall) and was fourth with $10.1 million (I said $9.7 million).
Finally, TheSecretLifeofPets2 held the five spot with $7.3 million compared to my $5.7 million prediction. Total is $131 million.
Another creepy doll looks to hit the runner-up spot while ToyStory4 stays in first place this weekend as Conjuring Cinematic Universe entry AnnabelleComesHome debuts. We also have the high concept musical comedy Yesterday out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both newcomers here:
It seems awfully risky in the summer of 2019 to project that a sequel will come close to meeting expectations. Not even ToyStory4 managed to do that (more on that below), but that’s where I’m at by saying Annabelle will gross in the high 20s for its Friday to Sunday earnings and high 30s when taking in the Wednesday and Thursday money.
As mentioned, Pixar’s fourth pairing of Woody and Buzz should have no trouble maintaining top position. ToyStory3 dipped 46% in its sophomore frame and I look for this to lose around half its volume.
Yesterday, in my view, once had breakout potential. However, so-so reviews don’t help. My estimate for The Beatles themed pic puts it just behind Aladdin in fourth place. TheSecretLifeofPets2 may stay put in fifth as I figure the drops for Child’sPlay and MeninBlack: International will be more severe.
And with that, my top five for the weekend:
1. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $60.3 million
2. AnnabelleComesHome
Predicted Gross: $27.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $38 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
4. Yesterday
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
5. TheSecretLifeofPets2
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
BoxOfficeResults (June21–23)
Pixar scored yet another hit with ToyStory4. Yet the acclaimed sequel (arriving nine years after part three) unquestionably made less than anticipated at $120.9 million. While that’s $10 million over its predecessor, that’s a far cry from my $167.5 million forecast. And even if you think I was being generous, the floor for most projections was around $140 million. I wouldn’t feel too bad for Disney as they’re having a terrific year thus far.
The return of Chucky was met with ambivalence as Child’sPlay was second with $14 million compared to my $17.6 million prediction. Look for it to fade fast, especially with that other dastardly doll arriving Wednesday. The reboot only cost a reported $10 million to make so United Artists shouldn’t be too upset either.
Aladdin was third with $13.2 million (I said $13 million) and it’s up to $288 million in the coffers.
MeninBlack: International tumbled from first to fourth with $10.7 million, below my $13.1 million projection for just $52 million. This reboot, like DarkPhoenix before it, looks to come in under $100 million domestically.
TheSecretLifeofPets2 rounded out the top five with $10.2 million. I was higher at $12.6 million. The three-week tally is $117 million.
Finally, the Luc Besson action thriller Anna was a flop in ninth with $3.6 million. My prediction? $3.6 million! That almost makes up for being $40 million plus off ToyStory4! Ok maybe not…
Oscar winning director Danny Boyle, who clearly enjoys playing in multiple genres, tries his hand at a musical comedy next weekend with Yesterday. The high concept pic puts forth the theory that only one aspiring songwriter (Himesh Patel) rememberers The Beatles and cashes in on the world’s memory loss. Costars include Lily James, Kate McKinnon, and Ed Sheeran.
Mr. Boyle, as mentioned, has a varied filmography that includes Trainspotting and its sequel, 28DaysLater and its follow-up, Best Picture winner SlumdogMillionaire, and SteveJobs. When Yesterday premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival, its so-so reception killed any potential awards chatter. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 68%.
While there’s legions of Fab Four fans out there, I don’t see this turning into a summer sleeper. I believe this will struggle to reach $10 million.
Yesterday opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million
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