February 13-16 Box Office Predictions

In a weekend that includes Friday the 13th, Valentine’s Day, and President’s Day, Hollywood is hoping for luck, love, and a commanding amount of cash to wake up a sleepy box office. There are a handful of newcomers – romantic drama Wuthering Heights, animated sports tale Goat, action thriller Crime 101, sci-fi action comedy Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die, and horror comedy Cold Storage. Three of them are likely to hold the top 3 slots while the other two are unlikely to make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:

Heights, Emerald Fennell’s loose adaptation of the Emily Brontë novel with Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, appears poised to dominate with a hefty female crowd (many of whom could bring along their significant others). My forecast is even higher than most with a three-day estimate in the mid 50s and four-day in the lower 60s.

Goat has the potential to exceed my projection with a sizable family audience. My long weekend prediction of just over $30 million would put it firmly in second. If it truly rises above expectations, it could challenge Heights if that film fails to match where I have it reaching.

Crime 101 with Chris Hemsworth should get in the teens for a third place showing based on decent word-of-mouth and the opportunity to reach a male demographic.

As for Good Luck with Sam Rockwell and Storage with Joe Keery, I have both falling short of the top five. They will compete for some of the same patrons and I’m not confident either will make a notable impact. For Luck, I’m going with $3.5 million from Friday to Sunday and $4 million when counting Monday. As for Storage, I’m calling for less with $1.7 million (Friday to Sunday) and $2 million (Friday to Monday).

Holdovers often see minimal declines over this particular holiday weekend and I have Send Help and Solo Mio in fourth and fifth and holding up well.

Here’s how I envision it shaking out:

1. Wuthering Heights

Predicted Gross: $55 million (3-day); $62.1 million (4-day)

2. Goat

Predicted Gross: $26.7 million (3-day); $30.4 million (4-day)

3. Crime 101

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million (3-day); $15.2 million (4-day)

4. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (3-day); $8.2 million (4-day)

5. Solo Mio

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (3-day); $7.5 million (4-day)

Box Office Results (February 6-8)

Sam Raimi’s Send Help managed two weeks in a row atop the charts over a sluggish frame with $9 million, in range with my $8.6 million prediction. The critically appreciated black comedy has made $34 million in its ten days of release.

Solo Mio was second and sparked a welcome return for Kevin James after a decade long absence from headlining on the silver screen. The Angel Studios dramedy posted a better than anticipated $7 million, ahead of my $5.2 million take.

Video gamed based Iron Lung was third in its sophomore outing with $6.7 million (I said $7.1 million) for a two-week tally of $31 million.

Stray Kids: The DominATE Experience, a concert film centered on the South Korean boy band, placed fourth with $5.6 million. I did not do an estimate for it and therefore had it omitted from the top 5.

Same goes for Luc Besson’s Dracula which bit off $4.4 million for a fifth place start. I had it making $3.5 million and outside of the top half of the chart.

The Strangers – Chapter 3 flopped in seventh with $3.4 million, under my $4.5 million guesstimate. I should’ve switched projections for this one and Dracula.

Finally, I gave too much credit to Melania in its second weekend. The doc about the First Lady fell 67% to tenth place with $2.3 million. I was more generous at $4.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Wuthering Heights

Emerald Fennell’s loose interpretation of Emily Brontë’s nearly 180-year-old romance Wuthering Heights is out Friday and expected to do brisk business at the box office. Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi (currently up for Supporting Actor in Frankenstein) headline with Hong Chau, Shazad Latif, Alison Oliver, Martin Clunes, and Ewan Mitchell costarring.

Critical reaction is of the mixed variety with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 61 Metacritic. In 2020, Fennell’s debut Promising Young Woman landed five Oscar nominations – Picture, Director, Actress (Carey Mulligan), and Film Editing with a victory for the auteur in Original Screenplay. 2023 follow-up Saltburn drew reviews more in line with Heights and landed zero mentions by the Academy.

Fennell’s third feature might split the difference. I do not anticipate nods in the major races considering the more divisive word-of-mouth. It could, however, show up in down-the-line competitions like Costume Design (where inclusion seems likely), Production Design, or one of the original songs from Charli XCX. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Crime 101 Box Office Prediction

Thor, Storm, Hulk, and Joan Baez populate the cast of Bart Layton’s thriller Crime 101 out February 13th. Looking to serve as counterprogramming to Wuthering Heights and Goat during the Valentine’s/President’s Day long weekend, the Amazon MGM production stars Chris Hemsworth, Mark Ruffalo, Barry Keoghan, Monica Barbaro, Corey Hawkins, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Nick Nolte, and Halle Berry.

Originally slated for release last year, 101 is the type of project that just as easily could’ve premiered via streaming. A worst case scenario would be a debut below $10 million. However, movies tend to exceed expectations and not underwhelm during this particular weekend.

I am taking the over and projecting a three-day in the low teens with a couple million extra when counting Monday.

Crime 101 opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $15.2 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Wuthering Heights prediction, click here:

For my Goat prediction, click here:

For my Cold Storage prediction, click here:

For my Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die prediction, click here:

Wuthering Heights Box Office Prediction

Wuthering Heights (stylized as “Wuthering Heights”) looks to have a commanding #1 debut over a crowded President’s Day weekend beginning February 13th. Loosely adapting Emily Brontë’s 1847 novel, the tawdry romantic drama marks the third directorial of Emerald Fennel behind Promising Young Woman and Saltburn. Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi headline with a supporting cast including Hong Chau, Shazad Latif, Alison Oliver, Martin Clunes, and Ewan Mitchell.

This could be seen as Robbie’s first majorly visible role since her 2023 phenomenon Barbie. Last year’s A Big Bold Beautiful Journey was barely marketed by Sony with poor word-of-mouth and reviews. Elordi has been on viewers’ radar with his Oscar-nominated turn in Netflix’s Frankenstein.

With that star power, familiar source material, and encouraging buzz, I suspect Heights could climb above current forecasts which are already rosy. The shrewdly timed release with Valentine’s Day falling on a Saturday could guarantee a large female turnout and plenty may bring their mates along for the journey. I’m going with a three-day in the mid to high 50s and a low 60s four-day

Wuthering Heights opening weekend prediction: $55 million (Friday to Sunday); $62.1 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Goat prediction, click here:

For my Crime 101 prediction, click here:

For my Cold Storage prediction, click here:

For my Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die prediction, click here: