Sony Pictures is banking on star power to land Fly Me to the Moon pleasing results when it debuts July 12th. Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum headline the 1960s set romantic dramedy with the Space Race as a backdrop. Nick Dillenburg, Anna Garcia, Jim Rash, Ray Romano, and Woody Harrelson are in the supporting cast with Love, Simon helmer Greg Berlanti behind the camera.
With a reported $100 million price tag, this a risky bet for its studio (Apple TV has streaming rights for a TBD date). This is counting on adult moviegoers to turn up for a summertime tale with no awards buzz. It is primarily relying on Johansson and Tatum to propel it and that’s asking a lot.
A best case scenario would put this near $20 million, but I think that might be wishful thinking. Low double digits or lower teens seems likelier.
Fly Me to the Moon opening weekend prediction: $12.2 million
Laura Chinn’s Suncoast premiered at Sundance, is out in limited fashion weekend, and hits Hulu this Friday. The coming-of-age drama stars Laura Linney, Nico Parker, and Woody Harrelson.
Distributed by Searchlight, the writer/director’s debut work failed to break out in Utah. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a so-so 68%. Despite some praise for Linney and Parker, I wouldn’t expect awards voters to shed light on this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In Bobby Farrelly’s Champions, we see glimpses of the gross-out humor that made the director and his brother Peter hugely successful filmmaker in the 90s. The co-maker of Dumb and Dumber, Kingpin, and There’s Something About Mary throws up puke, flatulence, and sex jokes, but it takes up limited screen time. This high concept dramedy is more centered on the heart than a fart (forgive me) and some of it scores. This also occasionally feels so desperate for our affection that you feel obliged to pet it, rub its belly, and tell it what a good movie it is.
Marcus Marakovich (Woody Harrelson) is a basketball coach whose skills aren’t being put to their best use. He’s an Iowa based assistant in the minors after squandering larger opportunities due to his hair-trigger temper. When his big mouth gets him canned yet again, he drinks his sorrows away and ends up with a DUI offense. The judge, in lieu of a lengthy jail sentence, assigns him to instruct a team with intellectual disabilities for 90 days.
The sports cliches follow as the hard-hearted Marcus’s outlook on life eventually is softened by his players who call themselves The Friends. One of the players is Johnny (Kevin Iannucci), the brother of his coach’s one-night stand turned potential love interest Alex (Kaitlin Olson). His primary character trait in the beginning is that he refuses to shower. The screenplay (co-scribed by Farrelly) doesn’t spend much time exploring the lives of these teammates. That might have been a worthwhile approach. For example, more airtime for Madison Tevlin’s forthright and self-confident Cosentino might have benefitted the picture. Same goes for Joshua Felder’s Darius, who’s the strongest player yet refuses to suit up for his legally bound coach (his reasons make good sense once revealed). Their performances make the absolute most of what they’re given. Unfortunately that’s limited.
Those character’s subplots could have turned into rewarding larger ones. We’ll never know. Champions is more focused on Marcus. He pines for NBA exposure instead of riding the pine in menial tutorial positions. Ironically the feel-good story of the Friends gets him closer to his goal as ESPN takes notice of his legally decreed assignment. Harrelson is no JV performer and he brings his A game to a script that never fully coalesces. He has a winning chemistry with Olson and their romantic interplay is a frequent plus.
A remake of a 2018 Spanish title, Champions isn’t offensive unless you count a short shot of projectile vomiting (there’s nothing approaching what we saw in the aforementioned Farrelly tales). I didn’t really find its treatment of the Friends objectionable either and that’s refreshing considering the filmmakers have a fine line to walk. On the other hand, there’s a fair share of mediocrity to deal with. For all the moments where the formula works, there’s a nagging feeling that this could end in the cast doing a dance routine to something like “Tubthumping” by Chumbawumba. Ahem, spoiler alert…
**Blogger’s Update (03/16): My Shazam! estimate continues to fall as I’m taking it down from $32.9M to $27.9M. Also bumping Scream VI from $16.6 to $17.6M and Creed III from $15.4M to $16.5M
Shazam! Fury of the Gods will keep the run of sequels in first place going at the box office, but it could deliver a so-so start. The DCEU follow-up to 2019’s original is the only wide release of the weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Zachary Levi’s superhero hopes to top the $53 million earned by its predecessor four years ago. I have it falling about $10 million shy of that mark in the low 40s which would be considered a letdown. This is especially true considering the recent franchise best starts for the Creed and Scream series. ***Blogger’s Update (03/15): Two days before its premiere, I have significantly lowered my estimate from $42.9M to $32.9M
Speaking of, it could be a close race for #2 between Scream VI and Creed III. The former slashed it way to a terrific debut (more on that below). Given its genre, a hefty sophomore decline is likely while Creed III may not suffer a steep drop.
A ginormous fall will probably greet 65 after the premiere. Adam Driver’s battle with dinosaurs managed only a C+ Cinemascore grade which means word-of-mouth may cause a second weekend percentage plummet close to its title number. It should be in a tight battle with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania for fourth position.
Here’s how I envision that top 5 looking:
1. Shazam! Fury of the Gods
Predicted Gross: $27.9 million
2. Scream VI
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
3. Creed III
Predicted Gross: $16.5 million
4. 65
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
5. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (March 10-12)
Scream VI needed to pass the $34 million earned by Scream 3 in 2000 to achieve the franchise’s high mark. It did so easily with $44.4 million, just edging my $42.6 million call. With a B+ Cinemascore (same as last year’s Scream which was Scream 5 and just not called that), audiences are liking what they’re seeing. As mentioned, it should still see a dip in the high 50s to low 60s range.
Creed III fell a respectable 53% to second with $27.2 million, punching past my $25 million take. The threequel from director and star Michael B. Jordan has amassed $101 million in ten days on its way to becoming the largest earner of the trilogy.
65 was third with $12.3 million. While that beats my $10.7 million prediction, that’s a meager beginning considering its reported large budget. Per above, expect this to become extinct quickly.
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania was fourth with $7.1 million compared to my $6.5 million estimate. The MCU adventure is approaching the double century club at $198 million. It might barely outpace its predecessor from 2018.
Cocaine Bear rounded out the top five with $6.2 million. My prediction? $6.2 million! The three-week total is $51 million.
Sports comedy Champions with Woody Harrelson kicked off in sixth with a blah $5.1 million. I said it would make… $5.1 million! The good news is its A Cinemascore and it will hope for small percentage losses in the frames ahead.
Finally, Jesus Revolution was seventh with $5.1 million and I said… (you guessed it!) $5.1 million. The three-week gross is $39 million.
Ghostface terrorizes NYC in Scream VI, Adam Driver fights dinosaurs in 65, and Woody Harrelson is ordered to coach a basketball team with intellectual disabilities in Champions. They are the newcomers hitting screens this Friday and my detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:
Just as Creed III smashed its franchise best record this past weekend (more on that below), Scream VI could be poised for the same. To do so, it would need to slash past the $34 million achieved by Scream 3 in 2000. I’m projecting it will do so with room to spare.
Creed III should fall to second in round 2. A mid to high 50s decline could give it a clean $25 million after its fantastic start.
65 appears likely for a third place start. Yet I’ve got the dino action pic barely topping $10 million. Considering its reported $90 million price tag, that would be a troubling premiere for the Sony property.
I’m not anticipating much out of Champions and my estimate ties it with the third frame of Jesus Revolution. That would mean holdovers Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and Cocaine Bear would be in a close contest for the four and five spots.
Here’s how I envision it looking:
1. Scream VI
Predicted Gross: $42.6 million
2. Creed III
Predicted Gross: $25 million
3. 65
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million
4. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
5. Cocaine Bear
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
6. Jesus Revolution
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
7. Champions
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
Box Office Results (March 3-5)
The month of March began with a potent punch at multiplexes as Creed III amassed $58.3 million. I way lowballed it at $39.2 million. Marking the directorial debut of its star Michael B. Jordan, it easily outpaced its predecessors. For context – Creed II, over the five-day Thanksgiving frame in 2018, made $55 million. In a month filled with potential blockbusters, the return of Adonis a promising pace.
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania fell to second after two weeks on top with $12.8 million. I was more generous at $14.6 million. The 60% drop was another troubling development for the threequel. Its total is $187 million.
Cocaine Bear was third with $11.1 million in its sophomore outing compared to my $13.2 million take. The 52% decline isn’t too shabby for its genre as the ten-day tally is $41 million.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village started in line with expectations in fourth with $10.1 million. I was close with $9.8 million. Expect a hefty dip in the range of 70% or more coming up.
Jesus Revolution rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $8.4 million. I had it raised higher at $11.3 million. The $30 million two-week gross remains rock solid.
Finally, Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre re-teaming Guy Ritchie and Jason Statham meekly rolled out in seventh with $3.1 million (I said $4 million).
Woody Harrelson headlines the sports comedy Champions on March 10th which marks the solo directorial debut for Bobby Farrelly. A remake of a 2018 Spanish pic, a basketball coach in legal hot water whose community service involves leading a team with intellectual disabilities. Kaitlin Olson, Matt Cook, Ernie Hudson, Cheech Marin, and Mike Smith are among the supporting cast.
Along with his brother Peter, the Farrellys directed comedy blockbusters including Dumb and Dumber and There’s Something About Mary. In between there was cult favorite Kingpin starring Harrelson. Peter’s solo career includes a Best Picture winner with 2018’s Green Book. This is Bobby’s first big screen behind the camera assignment since Dumb and Dumber To in 2014.
Bobby’s initial effort without his sibling is not expected to score highly at the box office. If it manages to top $10 million, that would be a pleasant surprise for Focus Features. I wouldn’t count on it. It might be lucky to gross half of that.
Champions opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
Ruben Östlund’s Triangle of Sadness is the penultimate Case Of post for the ten Best Picture nominees at this year’s Academy Awards.
The Case for Triangle of Sadness:
The Swedish filmmaker’s satire targeting the mega-rich began gathering buzz when it played at Cannes and received the Palme d’Or. That made it just the second feature in the 21st century to receive the top Cannes prize and nab a BP nod. The other is Parasite and it won BP three years ago. Östlund was a surprise nominee in Director which could indicate this is stronger than anticipated.
The Case Against Triangle of Sadness:
It hasn’t exactly cleaned up in the precursors. At Critics Choice, it had a sole mention for Best Comedy. There were two Globe noms for Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy and Dolly de Leon in Supporting Actress (the Academy left her off). The three BAFTA inclusions (de Leon, Original Screenplay, Casting) don’t include Picture. Furthermore, Triangle has yet to win any of these.
Other Nominations:
Director (Östlund), Original Screenplay
The Verdict:
Despite its maker unexpectedly making the directorial quintet, Triangle appears on course for an 0 for 3 performance on Oscar night.
My Case Of posts will continue with Women Talking!
Previous write-ups for the BP hopefuls can be accessed here:
Five days ahead of the Academy Awards nominations, our friends across the pond have revealed their picks. The BAFTAs (Great Britain’s Oscars equivalent) take place March 13th with Richard E. Grant hosting.
After the long lists of potential contenders were revealed, it was an impressive showing for Edward Berger’s WWI epic All Quiet on the Western Front. Today’s nods solidified its status as a favorite of this branch with a terrific 14 nominations. In short, it showed up everywhere it could’ve with the exception of Best Actor.
While Quiet made noise, it was the opposite for Women Talking and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Both were blanked. In particular, each were expected to contend in Adapted Screenplay (Talking is seen as a potential winner at Oscar). The Fabelmans only managed one mention. I projected that though not in the race where it materialized.
I went 83/119 on my forecasts. Let’s walk through each category with some quick takes.
Best Film
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár
How I Did: 4/5
No shockers here as Elvis got in over Triangle of Sadness. Given the performance by Quiet today, it may battle it out with Banshees (which did well this morning) and Everything for the grand prize.
Director
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
How I Did: 4/6
My runner-up Chan-wook making the cut was not a surprise. Prince-Bythewood getting in is. They’re in over Alice Diop (Saint Omer) who was my own surprise pick and Charlotte Wells (Aftersun). It’s worth noting that Aftersun had a rather subpar day. We already knew Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) was out since he didn’t make the long list. This might be Berger v. Daniels.
Actressk
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 5/6
Deadwyler over Lesley Manville in Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. As projected, this is another high profile omission for Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans. Her Oscar hopes are shakier by the minute.
Actor
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
How I Did: 5/6
McCormack unexpectedly pops up instead of Felix Kammerer – the one miss for All Quiet. Noteworthy that Tom Cruise couldn’t land here for Top Gun: Maverick (with a so-so haul of 4 tech nods).
Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)
How I Did: 4/6
The question here is whether Bassett keeps the victory streak alive or whether Condon, De Leon, or one of the others can disrupt a sweep. Curtis and Mulligan surface over my projected picks of Lashana Lynch (The Woman King) and Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion).
Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
How I Did: 4/6
Another call for Redmayne. He and Schuch join this sextet instead of Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness) and Brad Pitt (Babylon). Quan is the favorite.
Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
How I Did: 4/5
The sole nod for The Fabelmans is here and I thought Aftersun would be in the quintet instead. Will Banshees or Everything emerge?
Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, The Quiet Girl, She Said, The Whale
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch. As mentioned, no Glass Onion or Women Talking and I also had Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio listed. All Quiet, The Quiet Girl, and The Quiet Whale, errr just The Whale, were the trio I wasn’t counting on. Good luck selecting a winner here. I’m thinking Living at the moment.
Outstanding British Film
Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, See How They Run, The Swimmers, The Wonder
How I Did: 8/10
The only race with 10 contenders, one would think Banshees (as the only Best Film nominee) is out front. I had Blue Jean and Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris and not See How They Run or The Swimmers.
Outstanding Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer
Aftersun, Blue Jean, Electric Malady, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Rebellion
How I Did: 3/5
Malady and Rebellion over Emily and Wayfinder. Before this morning, I would’ve thought Aftersun was a slam dunk. It likely still takes this, but Grande could threaten given its over performance.
Film Not in the English Language
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Corsage, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl
How I Did: 4/5
Had EO and not Corsage. The only way All Quiet doesn’t take this in a blowout is if it wins Best Film and the voters want to choose something else. That probably won’t occur, but if so, Decision to Leave is viable considering the directing nod.
Animated Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
How I Did: 4/4
I won’t pat myself too hard on the back since the only category with a quartet wasn’t much of a challenge. Picking a recipient isn’t either as Pinocchio should prevail.
Documentary
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Moonage Daydream, Navalny
How I Did: 3/5
I admittedly went with a couple spoilers in Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song and The Ghost of Richard Harris. Fire and Navalny are present instead for what could be a preview of the Oscar five (or at least 4/5).
Casting
Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness
How I Did: 3/5
Chose Banshees and Fabelmans and not All Quiet (get used to hearing that) or Elvis.
Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 3/5
Had Athena and Tár as opposed to The Batman and Elvis.
Costume Design
All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Babylon, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
How I Did: 3/5
All Quiet and Amsterdam are suited for competition instead of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (a notable snub) and Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical.
Editing
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 4/5
Thought the Brits might select Moonage Daydream but it’s Banshees instead.
Make Up and Hair
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Whale
Didn’t have All Quiet or Matilda. Did have Amsterdam and Babylon.
Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Two of the year’s most acclaimed scores (Empire of Light, Women Talking) fall out with All Quiet and Everything in.
Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch Part II. Only correctly called Babylon and Elvis (the duo most likely to win). Incorrectly had Avatar: The Way of Water, Banshees, and Empire of Light.
Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 4/5
Tár in, The Batman out.
Special Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet in over Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. Despite a meager haul for Avatar, it should manage a victory in this race.
For those keeping score, that means these pictures garnered these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front
10 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
Elvis
5 Nominations
Tár
4 Nominations
Aftersun, The Batman, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
3 Nominations
Babylon, Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, She Said, The Woman King
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Amsterdam, Argentina, 1985, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Blonde, Blue Jean, Brian and Charles, Corsage, Electric Malady, The Fabelmans, Fire of Love, The Good Nurse, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Moonage Daydream, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Rebellion, See How They Run, The Swimmers, Till, Turning Red, The Wonder
I’ll have final predictions up shortly before the ceremony’s airdate!
Arriving five days before Oscar nominations are the British Academy Film Awards – commonly known as the BAFTAs. On January 6th, the long lists in each category were revealed. There were major surprises like Avatar: The Way of Water not being in the list of 10 for Best Film consideration (same goes for its maker James Cameron in Director). Perhaps the biggest shock was Steven Spielberg being omitted from the Directing race. That’s partly why I have The Fabelmans generating a grand total of 1 nomination.
This is a show that isn’t afraid to go their own way. In 2021, while all 5 Best Film contenders were also BP contenders with the Academy, none of the six Best Actress hopefuls scored an Oscar nod (I doubt that happens again). Only two of the six Actor nominees got the Academy’s consideration.
You know the drill. For each competition, I’m giving you my picks (nominees can be between 4 and 10 and mostly 5 and 6 depending on the race) and a runner-up. Let’s go!
Best Film
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Director
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Alice Diop (Saint Omer), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Charlotte Wells (Aftersun)
Runner-Up: Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Actress
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Runner-Up: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Actor
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Felix Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Front), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
Runner-Up: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Lashana Lynch (The Woman King), Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
Runner-Up: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Original Screenplay
Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
Runner-Up: The Fabelmans
Adapted Screenplay
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, She Said, Women Talking
Runner-Up: The Whale
Outstanding British Film
Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Blue Jean, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Wonder
Runner-Up: Lady Chatterley’s Lover
Outstanding Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer
Aftersun, Blue Jean, Emily, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Wayfinder
Runner-Up: Donna
Film Not in the English Language
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Decision to Leave, EO, The Quiet Girl
Runner-Up: RRR
Animated Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
Documentary
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Ghost of Richard Harris, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song, Moonage Daydream
Runner-Up: Navalny
Casting
Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front, Athena, Empire of Light, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Costume Design
Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Editing
All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Moonage Daydream, Top Gun: Maverick
Runner-Up: Aftersun
Make Up and Hair
Amsterdam, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, The Whale
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Original Score
Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking
Runner-Up: The Batman
Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Empire of Light
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
Runner-Up: Thirteen Lives
Special Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, Top Gun: Maverick
Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in nominations:
11 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front
6 Nominations
Aftersun, Elvis
5 Nominations
Babylon, Empire of Light, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
4 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
3 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, The Whale
2 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Blue Jean, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Moonage Daydream, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Woman King, Women Talking
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Amsterdam, Argentina, 1985, Athena, Blonde, Brian and Charles, Decision to Leave, Emily, EO, The Fabelmans (!), Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, The Ghost of Richard Harris, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, Saint Omer, She Said, Turning Red, Wayfinder, The Wonder
Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made an unexpected amount of noise when the British Academy of Film and Television Art (BAFTA) announced their shortlists prior to the final nominations on January 19th. The long lists can vary in size and so can the numbers of eventual nominees coming in two weeks.
It’s a little confusing and hard to keep track of, but one thing is certain. World War I epic Quiet is eligible for the most races with 15 followed by The Banshees of Inisherin at 14. The superb performance from the former only helps its recent surge in the Oscar race (where I elevated it to my 10 for BP contenders on Monday).
Not all pictures had good showings from our British colleagues. This is especially true for The Fabelmans (with a shockingly subpar showing) and Women Talking.
Let’s go through each feature length shortlist with some general comments. Predictions for the nominees will come shortly before the 19th when I’ll delve a bit deeper.
Best Film
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Living
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Half of these features will make the cut and it’s hard to imagine All Quiet not doing so considering its haul. Same for Banshees would could be a soft frontrunner. It’s also worth noting Everything did just fine. Key pics you won’t find here: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Women Talking.
Outstanding British Film
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Blue Jean
Brian and Charles
Emily
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Lady Chatterley’s Lover
Living
The Lost King
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
See How They Run
The Swimmers
The Wonder
Plenty of British titles here that aren’t expected to make a dent with the Academy’s voters. Only three of these hopefuls made Best Film and Banshees should have a leg up on Aftersun (which performed splendidly with BAFTA) and Living.
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Aftersun
Blue Jean
Donna
Electric Malady
Emily
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Nothing Compares
Rebellion
See How They Run
Wayfinder
This one should be Aftersun all the way considering it’s the only entry vying for the top prize.
Film Not in the English Language
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo
Close
Corsage
Decision to Leave
EO
Holy Spider
The Quiet Girl
RRR
While Saint Omer made the director cut, its miss is notable here. Bardo got in, but popped up nowhere else. Even more surprisingly – same goes for RRR. This should be an All Quiet win.
Documentary
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
A Bunch of Amateurs
Fire of Love
The Ghost of Richard Harris
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song
Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues
McEnroe
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Like the Academy, Good Night Oppy couldn’t make the shortlist while Descendant is another high profile snub.
Animated Film
The Amazing Maurice
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Lightyear
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
4 of 8 go through. While Pinocchio is out front – don’t sleep on Marcel.
Director
Colm Bairéad, The Quiet Girl
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Chinonye Chukwu, Till
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alice Diop, Saint Omer
Sara Dosa, Fire of Love
Todd Field, Tár
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Marie Kreutzer, Corsage
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King
Maria Schrader, She Said
Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
BAFTA puts up 8 male and 8 female filmmakers on the shortlist before it shrinks to 6 (three of each gender). I’ll have more on who I think gets in later, but how about who didn’t!?!? There’s James Cameron for Avatar (which had a mediocre performance overall). The giant shocker was not seeing Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. And this one feels like it could have Oscar implications. I’ve had him listed #1 in Director for months. That placement is in serious jeopardy. I think he still gets makes the Academy’s quintet, but I suspect his #1 status will take a hit when I update in a couple of days.
Leading Actress
Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
It’s a bit unexpected seeing Ackie and Chastain over some picks BAFTA might’ve gone for like Vicky Krieps in Corsage and Florence Pugh in The Wonder. Same goes (sort of) for Olivia Colman in Empire of Light. However, it’s worth pointing out that BAFTA also ignored her for The Father and The Lost Daughter (the Academy didn’t). And you won’t see Babylon‘s Margot Robbie in the mix either.
Leading Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Harris Dickinson, Triangle of Sadness
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Daniel Kaluuya, Nope
Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front
Daryl McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
I have a feeling the six eventual nominees may not include Dickinson, Kaluuya, Kammerer, and McCormack but that’s not a final call. Notable names out include Diego Calva (Babylon), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), Hugh Jackman (The Son, which was blanked) and Jeremy Pope (The Inspection).
Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Lashana Lynch, The Woman King
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Emma Thompson, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Aimee Lou Wood, Living
Ms. Thompson scored an unanticipated double nod thanks to this one as this 2022 hard to figure out Supporting Actress derby stayed that way. Like the Globes, no Jessie Buckley or Claire Foy from Women Talking.
Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Whishaw being the only acting nominee for Women Talking kinda came out of nowhere. So did familiar faces like Hanks and Harrelson over either of the Fabelmans contenders – Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch. Pitt at last lands Babylon an above the line nom.
Original Screenplay
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
The Menu
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Dare I say there’s no real surprises in this race.
Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Living
The Quiet Girl
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking
The Wonder
This could’ve been where White Noise got a lone nod, but nope. Considering the so-so performance of Women Talking, I wouldn’t automatically think it wins. But… what does?
***For the rest of these races, I’m listing just the shortlisted pics. Forecasted nominees are coming soon enough! I will say The Fabelmans is MIA in places where it was expected to be (especially Cinematography and Score).
Casting
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Living
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Athena
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Costume Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Corsage
Elvis
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Editing
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Moonage Daydream
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Make Up & Hair
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Elvis
Emancipation
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
The Whale
Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Tár
Women Talking
The Wonder
Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Special Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Jurassic World: Dominion
Top Gun: Maverick
Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Tár
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun: Maverick
Keep an eye out for BAFTA final predictions from these shortlists and the same for the Golden Globes and Critics Choice!
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