Tag: Woody Harrelson

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 Box Office Prediction

This Friday, only one new release debuts in the marketplace, but it’s a massive one. Yes, Katniss and company are back in The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 and expect a number of 2014’s records to be broken.

For starters, it needs only to top the $100 million earned by Transformers: Age of Extinction to have the largest opening weekend of the year. That should be no problem whatsoever. 2012’s original Games got off to a $152M start while last year’s sequel Catching Fire took in $158M. Additionally, Mockingjay 1 (the part two franchise finale is out next year) is almost certain to eventually gross higher than 2014’s current box office champ, Guardians of the Galaxy, which has earned $330M. Both of Mockingjay‘s predecessors have earned over $400M domestically.

Jennifer Lawrence returns at Katniss with a large ensemble cast including Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemsworth, Julianne Moore, Donald Sutherland, Elizabeth Banks, Woody Harrelson, Jeffrey Wright, Stanley Tucci, and the late Philip Seymour Hoffman. Reviews have been mostly strong, though notices for Catching Fire were more positive.

This third entry appears unlikely to gross under the original’s $152M out of the gate. However, I question whether it manages to top Catching Fire‘s $158M haul. I’ll predict this opens right in the middle of the first two while easily claiming the title of best roll out of the year.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 opening weekend prediction: $155.8 million

This Day in Movie History: December 27

This Day in Movie History – December 27 – brings us another trio of pictures that opened attempting to make their Oscar qualifying runs.

13 years ago brought Traffic, Steven Soderbegh’s epic pic which explored the war on drugs from various different angles with multiple storylines. With an all-star cast featuring Michael Douglas, Benicio del Toro, Don Cheadle, Catherine Zeta-Jones, and Don Cheadle, Traffic won Oscars for its Direction, Supporting Actor (del Toro), and Adapted Screenplay. It would lose Best Picture to Ridley Scott’s Gladiator. It was a massive box office success earning $124 million domestically. **Blogger’s note: a few scenes of Traffic were filmed in my town of Columbus, Ohio and I got to witness part of it being filmed at the Ohio Statehouse. I saw Michael Douglas descend the steps of the Statehouse (it’s early in the movie) and I even got to chat briefly with Mr. Soderbergh, who was wearing an Ohio State ball cap (Go Bucks!).

22 years ago today saw the release of Fried Green Tomatoes, Jon Avnet’s Depression era comedic drama. It combined the Best Actress winner from two years prior, Jessica Tandy, with the Best Actress winner from the previous year, Kathy Bates. The pic resonated with audiences with an $82 million domestic box office tally but received Oscar nods only for Tandy in Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay, winning neither.

Milos Forman’s The People vs. Larry Flynt opened 17 years ago today. The biopic of Hustler magazine founder Larry Flynt cast Woody Harrelson in the title role with Courtney Love and Edward Norton in supporting roles. Flynt failed to resonate with moviegoers earning just $20 million. It did manage to pick up Oscar nominations (but no wins) for Forman and Harrelson.

As for actors with birthdays today, John Amos turns 74. You may know the veteran actor best for TV work from “Good Times” to “The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air” to “The West Wing” to the miniseries Roots. He’s had his share of notable film roles as well, including Coming to America, Die Hard 2, and Madea’s Witness Protection.

Actress Theresa Randle is 49 today. She’s appeared in many high-profile pics over the past coupe of decades from the two Bad Boys flicks to Sugar Hill to Beverly Hills Cop III to her starring role in Spike Lee’s Girl 6.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two birthdays performers:

John Amos was in Coming to America with Eddie Murphy

Eddie Murphy was in Beverly Hills Cop III with Theresa Randle

And that’s today in Movie History!

Out of the Furnace Box Office Prediction

Christian Bale headlines an all-star cast in the crime thriller Out of the Furnace from Crazy Heart director Scott Cooper. It is the only wide release coming out during the first weekend of December where moviegoers could still be preoccupied with leftovers such as The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Disney’s Frozen.

Beside the Dark Knight himself, Furnace costars Casey Affleck, Woody Harrelson, Zoe Saldana, Forest Whitaker, and Willem Dafoe. Early reviews have mostly been positive (it currently sits at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes). There were some insiders who mentioned this pic for possible awards consideration though that talk has mostly fallen along the wayside. The marketing campaign has been fairly robust, but one has to wonder if audiences will rush out to see it.

A similar genre pic, Killing Them Softly with Brad Pitt, opened during the same weekend last year to highly disappointing results with only $6.8 million for its debut. That film also had mostly solid notices from critics. I believe Furnace will perform a bit better though it’s a legitimate question in my mind whether it reaches double digits or not. I’ll predict it doesn’t quite get there.

Out of the Furnance opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million

 

Box Office Predictions: November 22-24

The weekend before Thanksgiving brings us one of the year’s most anticipated titles, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which is primed for an explosive debut. The sequel will look to build upon the $152 million that its predecessor opened at in March 2012. My prediction puts it at #4 for all-time domestic openings. You can read my detailed post here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/the-hunger-games-catching-fire-box-office-prediction/

I have #2 and #3 as other sequels. Thor: The Dark World is likely to lose over half its audience in the third weekend. The Best Man Holiday debuted well beyond expectations with $30 million. Conventional wisdom tells me it’s likely to lose over 50% in weekend #2, but considering its rare A+ Cinemascore grade, it may not fall that far. The two should post very close results fighting for the runner-up spot.

The weekend’s loser may well be Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man, which is garnering mixed reviews and has been running a tepid marketing campaign. I expect a disappointing opening and you can read my detailed post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/delivery-man-box-office-prediction/

Rounding out the top five should be either holdovers Last Vegas or Free Birds, but I’ll give the edge to Vegas in weekend #4. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $166.7 million

2. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)

3. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

4. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

5. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 26%)

Check the blog’s Facebook page on Saturday for early results with final results on the blog Sunday!

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Box Office Prediction

In March of 2012, The Hunger Games opened to a massive $152.5 million domestic opening weekend and finished with a gargantuan $408M domestic haul. To say its sequel Catching Fire is eagerly awaited is quite the understatement.

Director Gary Ross is out and I Am Legend director Francis Lawrence is in. Of course, it’s a different Lawrence (Jennifer) and her costars Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemworth, Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, Stanley Tucci, Donald Sutherland, Lenny Kravitz and newcomers Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Jeffrey Wright that audiences are eager to see. Catching Fire comes with a much bigger $140 million budget compared to the $78M price tag for the original.

Reviews suggest this adaptation of Suzanne Collins novel is very faithful and the film sits an impressive 97% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Just how big could this be? Well, big. The sequel is likely to open larger than its predecessor, which currently holds the #6 all-time highest domestic opening. There are some who believe it could debut above $175 million which would put it at #2 all-time, above this year’s $174M opening of Iron Man 3. I’m not going that high, but would certainly say it’s possible. I believe a debut in the mid to high 160’s is the most plausible scenario. My prediction would put The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at #4 all-time – just below the $169M haul of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 and above the $160M opening of The Dark Knight Rises.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opening weekend prediction: $166.7 million

For my prediction on Delivery Man with Vince Vaughn, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/delivery-man-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: November 1-3

It isn’t often you have a weekend showcasing three new pictures that all stand reasonable shots at opening in first place, but that’s the situation we find ourselves for the first weekend of November 2013. We have the sci-fi epic Ender’s Game, the animated Thanksgiving tale Free Birds, and the all-star comedy Last Vegas all debuting. You could make legit arguments for any one of them being the weekend’s champ. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/free-birds-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/last-vegas-box-office-prediction/

The odds-on favorite is Ender’s Game and I have it easily taking the top spot. However, there is the chance it could flop and allow one of the others to leapfrog it. Free Birds could capitalize on its Thanksgiving subject matter. Last Vegas could cash in on the star power of Robert De Niro, Morgan Freeman, Michael Douglas, and Kevin Kline.

Ultimately, though, I’m not betting against Ender’s Game winning the weekend. As for holdovers, it could be a tight race for the four spot as Gravity will likely experience its typical small decline while last weekend’s #1 Bad Grandpa is poised to fall more than 50%.

Outside of the top five, Oscar front runner 12 Years a Slave expands to 400 theaters and could take in $3.5-$4 million.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Ender’s Game

Predicted Gross: $32.9 million

2. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $21 million

3. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

4. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Free Birds Box Office Prediction

Not enough animated movies this year after Escape from Planet Earth, The Croods, Epic, Monsters University, Despicable Me 2, Turbo, Planes, and Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2? Have no fear – the Thanksgiving themed Free Birds is out Friday.

Featuring the voices of Owen Wilson, Woody Harrelson, and Amy Poehler, Free Birds is the first venture from Reel FX Animation Studios, distributed by Relativity Media. The company was formed to produce modestly budgeted animated titles and Birds comes with a reported $35 million price tag which is small for these types of pics. The best thing Free Birds has going for it is the timing factor. If its halfway decent, this should play pretty well into the Thanksgiving holiday frame and could experience smallish declines from week to week throughout November.

Whether this means it’ll have a big opening is uncertain. The distributor has zero track record so that makes it a little tough to gauge. Anything below $20 million would have to be considered mildly disappointing. It’s rare for any wide release animated feature to fall much below that. A debut in the low 20s range where Turbo and Planes opened seems like a strong possibility. Of course, there’s always the chance this premieres higher than expected, but I’m not prognosticating it.

Free Birds opening weekend prediction: $21 million

For my Ender’s Game prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

For my Last Vegas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/last-vegas-box-office-prediction/