The fact that acclaimed filmmaker Richard Linklater’s latest effort lifted its review embargo one day before release could be seen as a red flag. Considering his previous pic LastFlagFlying didn’t particularly connect with critics or audiences might have been seen as a harbinger of things to come for Where’dYouGo, Bernadette.
Reaction out today confirms the suspicions. The Cate Blanchett led mystery comedy, based on Maria Semple’s 2012 bestseller, holds just a 35% Rotten Tomatoes score at press time. Five years after Linklater’s Boyhood won and was nominated for multiple Oscars, it appears this will be quickly forgotten in the slow August frame.
Blanchett has managed some praise for her work. It’s been 15 years since she won Supporting Actress for Martin Scorsese’s TheAviator and 6 years since she took gold for her leading role in Woody Allen’s BlueJasmine. She’s been nominated five other times.
I wouldn’t anticipate this will be #8. And overall – If Oscar watchers are looking for Bernadette come nominations time, they’ll be left wondering where it went. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Today begins a new blog series where I’m looking back at five of the major Oscar categories from 1990 to the present: the four acting races and Best Picture. This is essentially the time period where I’ve closely watched and analyzed. My charge? Picking the three largest upsets in each said category and the three least surprising winners… a film or performer where it truly would have been a shock if they didn’t emerge victorious.
We begin with Best Supporting Actress and this is one in which there have been some genuine upsets over the past quarter century plus. Unlike some other races we’ll get to later, it was not a challenge to pick three unexpected winners.
The other agenda item here is I’m picking my personal selections for strongest and weakest overall field among the five nominees in the acting derby’s and five-ten for Best Picture.
For starters, here’s the list of women that won gold statues in the supporting race from 1990 to now:
1990 – Whoopi Goldberg, Ghost
1991 – Mercedes Ruehl, TheFisherKing
1992 – Marisa Tomei, MyCousinVinny
1993 – Anna Paquin, ThePiano
1994 – Dianne Wiest, BulletsOverBroadway
1995 – Mira Sorvino, MightyAphrodite
1996 – Juliette Binoche, TheEnglishPatient
1997 – Kim Basinger, L.A. Confidential
1998 – Judi Dench, ShakespeareinLove
1999 – Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted
2000 – Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock
2001 – Jennifer Connelly, ABeautifulMind
2002 – Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
2003 – Renee Zellweger, ColdMountain
2004 – Cate Blanchett, TheAviator
2005 – Rachel Weisz, TheConstantGardner
2006 – Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
2007 – Tilda Swinton, MichaelClayton
2008 – Penelope Cruz, VickyChristinaBarcelona
2009 – Mo’Nique, Precious
2010 – Melissa Leo, TheFighter
2011 – Octavia Spencer, TheHelp
2012 – Anne Hathaway, LesMiserables
2013 – Lupita Nyong’o, 12YearsaSlave
2014 – Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2015 – Alicia Vikander, TheDanishGirl
2016 – Viola Davis, Fences
2017 – Allison Janney, I, Tonya
I’ll begin with the least surprising winners. Truthfully, there are plenty of selections (and will be in each race) to pick from here. It’s normal procedure for the front runner to actually win. Here’s three that did just that:
3. Dianne Wiest, BulletsOverBroadway
Of the 28 recipients to choose from, note that 3 of them were under the direction of Woody Allen. None were surprise winners. That’s most evident with Wiest’s showcase work as an aging diva here. Her win here came just eight years following her Oscar winning role in another Allen pic, HannahandHerSisters.
2. Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Fans of the Broadway play this is based upon knew Ms. Hudson could have a legitimate breakthrough part here. She nailed it and her win was never in much doubt.
1. Anne Hathaway, LesMiserables
Similar to Hudson’s victory, Hathaway’s casting as Fantine and her “I Dreamed a Dream” dramatic solo made her the odds-on favorite from the moment the project was announced. That never changed.
Now we get to the upsets and there were four to choose from. I could easily include Anna Paquin in ThePiano, who became the second youngest winner when she beat out favorite Winona Ryder for TheAgeofInnocence. Here’s 3 I rank as even more surprising:
3. Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock
Harden had won no significant precursors and Kate Hudson was expected to have her name called for AlmostFamous. She wasn’t even nominated for a Golden Globe or SAG.
2. Juliette Binoche, TheEnglishPatient
While the film itself was the anticipated winner for Picture (which it did), the Oscars were expected to select the legendary Lauren Bacall for her work in Barbra Streisand’s TheMirrorHasTwoFaces. Yet it was Binoche’s performance that was unexpectedly honored.
1. Marisa Tomei, MyCousinVinny
For starters, comedic roles are rarely nominated and wins are even more unheard of. Tomei was a newcomer in a picture that wasn’t a factor in any other category. Her competition was a list of venerable actresses: Judy Davis (HusbandsandWives), Joan Plowright (EnchantedApril), Vanessa Redgrave (HowardsEnd), and Miranda Richardson (Damages). The victory here was so shocking that conspiracy theories emerged that presenter Jack Palance had accidentally read the wrong name. That’s been debunked, but Tomei’s trip to the stage remains one of Oscar’s largest jaw droppers.
As for the fields, I’m going with 1991 for the weakest link in the chain. I probably would have given the award to Juliette Lewis in CapeFear. However, the group was not particularly strong:
Mercedes Ruehl, TheFisherKing (Winner)
Diane Ladd, RamblingRose
Juliette Lewis, CapeFear
Kate Nelligan, ThePrinceofTides
Jessica Tandy, FriedGreenTomatoes
For the strongest field overall, I went with 2004 when Cate Blanchett won for her portrayal of Katherine Hepburn in Martin Scorsese’s TheAviator. The other nominees:
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Sophie Okonedo, HotelRwanda
Natalie Portman, Closer
And there you have it! I’ll have Supporting Actor up soon…
My weekly round of Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories brings a couple of updates from the past week:
Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel premiered at the New York Film Festival and the mixed reaction has caused it to roll all the way out of the top 25 possibilities for Best Picture. Kate Winslet still stands a decent shot at Best Actress in a very crowded race, but her nomination seems a bit less assured to me now. The film also takes a hit in the Original Screenplay derby.
It’s looking like The Leisure Seeker with Donald Sutherland will not be released until 2018. I’ve had the actor on the lower rungs of possibility for Best Actor, but until I see confirmation of an awards qualifying end of year release date, he’s out for now.
And with that, let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
As the New York Film Festival draws to its close, another piece of the Oscar puzzle has revealed itself with Woody Allen’s WonderWheel. Early critical reaction is a bit mixed yet there seems to be general consensus that Kate Winslet’s lead performance is wonderful.
As has been discussed numerous times already on the blog, Best Actress looks packed with this year. There’s already acclaimed performances from Frances McDormand in ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri, Margot Robbie in I, Tonya, Emma Stone in BattleoftheSexes, Sally Hawkins in TheShapeofWater, Judi Dench in VictoriaandAbdul, and Jessica Chastain in Molly’sGame, among others. That’s in addition to Meryl Streep’s unseen but likely contending work in ThePost. Even with all that significant competition, Winslet could well be in line for her 8th nomination, having won once in 2008 for TheReader.
The cinematography for Wheel has also received praise and that’s certainly a race where a nod is doable. However, I am now thinking Woody’s latest is a long shot to nab a Best Picture nomination and Original Screenplay seems less assured now (that’s another crowded category). Juno Temple has received some decent ink today, but a Supporting Actress nomination could be a stretch. Male costars Justin Timberlake and Jim Belushi appear to be non-factors.
Bottom line: Winslet keeps her name in the mix, but other categories seem less likely now than they did yesterday.
It’s Thursday and that means a fresh round of my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Some thoughts from the past week:
I can’t help but wonder if the disappointing box office performance of Blade Runner 2049 will hurt its chances at nominations for Picture and Director. It certainly doesn’t help. I had the film and director Denis Villeneuve getting in last week. Today that changes, but we’ll see if it manages to rise back up in subsequent weeks.
Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel is slated to premiere at the New York Film Festival tonight and that means reviews will be up. I have it getting nominations in Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay right now, but lots of questions will be answered in a matter of hours.
Sean Baker’s The Florida Project seems to be garnering a lot of goodwill and for the first time, I have it taking a major jump into an actual nomination. We’ll see if that sticks.
Finally, it appears Steven Spielberg’s The Post will qualify for Original Screenplay and not Adapted as previously thought. That change has been reflected here.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
9. The Florida Project (PR: 19)
Other Possibilities:
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
11. Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
12. Detroit (PR: 13)
13. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 11)
14. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)
15. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
16. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
17. I, Tonya (PR: 17)
18. Downsizing (PR: 18)
19. Get Out (PR: 16)
20. All the Money in the World (PR: 21)
21. Wonderstruck (PR: 24)
22. Lady Bird (PR: 20)
23. The Big Sick (PR: 22)
24. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Goodbye Christopher Robin
Molly’s Game
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)
8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
12. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 14)
13. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
14. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
15. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
7. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 7)
9. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 9)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)
12. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 13)
13. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 12)
14. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)
11. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 13)
12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 11)
13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)
14. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
7. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
8. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)
9. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 11)
10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
11. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 13)
12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)
14. Colin Farrell, The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying
Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 4)
3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 8)
8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 10)
11. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 11)
12. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)
13. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)
15. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin
Cicely Tyson, Last Flag Flying
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)
2. Mudbound (PR: 3)
3. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Beguiled (PR: 10)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
9. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 12)
10. All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)
12. Stronger (PR: 13)
13. The Death of Stalin (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)
15. Wonder (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The Post (moved to Original Screenplay)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Adapted Screenplay)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Florida Project (PR: 11)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 5)
8. Get Out (PR: 6)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Dunkirk (PR: 7)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
12. Downsizing (PR: 12)
13. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)
14. Wind River (PR: 14)
15. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Greatest Showman
And there you have it! I’ll be back at it next Thursday with fresh predictions…
Back at it once again with my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories as we move to October. Over the past week, I would say there’s been two significant developments. First, Richard Linklater’s Last Flag Flying debuted at the New York Film Festival to somewhat mixed results. I’ve had it in my predicted nine films to be nominated for Best Picture and that changes for now.
The other story is the critical reaction for Blade Runner 2049, which opens tomorrow. Many of the reviews have been raves and I believe it’s increased it chances greatly at nods for Picture and its director Denis Villeneuve, who was nominated just last year for Arrival.
One further story line is the falling prospects of Battle of the Sexes, which is not performing up to expectations at the box office. Much of the reasoning for it receiving nominations was that it could turn into a hit audience pleaser. That hasn’t occurred and its chances are in doubt. GoodbyeChristopherRobin has reviews out as well and its prospects are looking dim.
Per usual, just because I rank something at #1 doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is based on chances for a nomination. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 13)
9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
11. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)
12. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
13. Detroit (PR: 18)
14. The Greatest Showman (PR: 12)
15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)
16. Get Out (PR: 16)
17. I, Tonya (PR: 22)
18. Downsizing (PR: 19)
19. The Florida Project (PR: 23)
20. Lady Bird (PR: 21)
21. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)
22. The Big Sick (PR: 20)
23. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)
24. Wonderstruck (PR: 25)
25. Molly’s Game (PR: 24)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 11)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)
14. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)
15. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 12)
Back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions on the eight major categories and how those races are shaping up! In the next week, two big pieces of the Academy puzzle will come into focus. Last Flag Flying will screen this evening at the New York Film Festival and Blade Runner 2049 will have its reviews out as it opens a week from tomorrow (early word-of-mouth is strong). I’m also, for the first time, including Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris, which hasn’t been confirmed for release by the end of the year (though it’s expected to be).
As for this week, we’ve seen some significant changes in the rankings at the top for both Actress and Supporting Actress. Again, I’ll note that just because I’m ranking something first doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is strictly guesstimates on chances of being nominated.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Mudbound (PR: 5)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
9. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)
11. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)
12. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)
13. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)
14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)
15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
16. Get Out (PR: 24)
17. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)
18. Detroit (PR: 16)
19. Downsizing (PR: 13)
20. The Big Sick (PR: 21)
21. Lady Bird (PR: 25)
22. I, Tonya (PR: 20)
23. The Florida Project (PR: 19)
24. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Wonderstruck (PR: 22)
Dropped Out:
Coco
mother!
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
9. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
11. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)
12. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)
13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)
15. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
7. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)
9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)
10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)
12. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 13)
15. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (reportedly competing in Supporting Actor)
Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)
7. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 10)
9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 9)
11. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 11)
12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)
13. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)
15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, Mudbound
Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
5. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)
7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 8)
8. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
11. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
12. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 12)
13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 11)
14. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 15)
15. Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Best Supporting Actress
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)
3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 6)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)
7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 11)
8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)
11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
12. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 14)
15. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, Suburbicon
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (moved to Lead Actress)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post (PR: 1)
2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
10. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)
12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)
13. Stronger (PR: 9)
14. Wonder (PR: 13)
15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Logan
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
8. Dunkirk (PR: 8)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
11. Downsizing (PR: 9)
12. The Florida Project (PR: 11)
13. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)
15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Coco
And there you have it! Updates will be on the way next Thursday…
My weekly Thursday Oscar predictions are coming to you on a Friday this week (sorry for the delay) as the festival season shed some light on potential nominees. That said, there’s still lots of uncertainty with plenty left to be seen.
Per usual, I’m listing my predicted nominees in the eight major categories with 25 potentials for Best Picture and 15 in the others. Once again, note that just because I rank something first doesn’t mean I think it will win. These rankings are more geared toward what I think will definitely be nominated at this juncture. For instance, even though Dunkirk is placed 1st, I wouldn’t say it’s the front runner to take home Best Picture at all.
Let’s get to it and I’ll get the weekly post back to Thursdays next week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Mudbound (PR: 5)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 17)
8. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
9. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
11. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
12. Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)
13. Downsizing (PR: 11)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 16)
15. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 12)
16. Detroit (PR: 14)
17. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Coco (PR: 19)
19. The Florida Project (PR: 23)
20. I, Tonya (PR: 24)
21. The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Wonderstruck (PR: 18)
23. mother! (PR: 15)
24. Get Out (PR: 20)
25. Lady Bird (PR: 21)
Dropped Out:
Wind River
Wonder Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
9. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
11. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
12. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
13. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
15. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Alexander Payne, Downsizing
Darren Aronofsky, mother!
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)
8. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 9)
9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 11)
11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 12)
12. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)
13. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
14. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (PR: 15)
15. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (picture reportedly moved to 2018)
We’ve arrived at my second round of weekly Oscar predictions that will come your way every Thursday on the blog! Since last week, a number of titles have screened at the Toronto Film Festival, in addition to the Venice and Telluride fests that preceded it.
As I did last week, I will list my current predicted nominees in the eight biggest races with a total of 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 in the others. Beginning today, you’ll be able to see the fluctuation in rankings from last week to the current one and see what and who has joined and dropped out. Once again, rankings reflect who and what I think will be nominated and not necessarily win.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
5. Mudbound (PR: 4)
6. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)
11. Downsizing (PR: 8)
12. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 16)
13. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)
14. Detroit (PR: 14)
15. mother! (PR: 13)
16. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
17. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 18)
18. Wonderstruck (PR: 17)
19. Coco (PR: 19)
20. Get Out (PR: 20)
21. Lady Bird (PR: 22)
22. Wind River (PR: 21)
23. The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
24. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Wonder Woman (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
Molly’s Game
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
10. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
12. Alexander Payne, Downsizing (PR: 9)
13. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
14. Darren Aronofsky, mother! (PR: 13)
15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 5)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 15)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 7)
10. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 12)
12. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
13. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 10)
15. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
7. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 7)
11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 8)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)
13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)
14. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night (PR: 15)
15. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Isabelle Huppert, Happy End
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)
7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)
8. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)
11. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)
13. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 14)
14. Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Harrison Ford, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)
2. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 2)
3. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)
8. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: 7)
9. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 11)
10. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon (PR: 13)
11. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 14)
12. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
14. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)
7. Stronger (PR: 12)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. You Were Never Really Here (PR: 7)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)
12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)
13. Wonder (PR: 13)
14. My Cousin Rachel (PR: 14)
15. Logan (PR: 15)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
5. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
8. Dunkirk (PR: 9)
9. Downsizing (PR: 5)
10. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)
11. Lady Bird (PR: 11)
12. The Big Sick (PR: 10)
13. mother! (PR: 13)
14. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
15. The Florida Project (PR: 12)
And there you have it, folks! Expect more Oscar Watch posts to come your way and my next full predictions next Thursday…
Kate Winslet has received seven total Oscar nominations (with one win), so she pretty much belongs in the Meryl Streep category of almost any movie she makes will get automatic Academy speculation. OK, maybe not Divergent but most of them.
So when TheMountainBetweenUs got its Toronto Film Festival premiere this weekend, prognosticators were ready. The pic is a disaster pic/romance that casts Winslet as a plane crash survivor along with Idris Elba. They brave the wilderness while falling for each other.
Mountain is based on a 2011 Charles Martin bestseller and marks the English language debut of Israeli filmmaker Hany Abu-Assad, who’s received two Foreign Language Picture nods. Sounds like a potential Oscar player, right?
Not so fast. Early reviews out of Toronto are mostly just so-so. It would appear its possibilities for Academy nods are now grounded. The good news for Winslet? She could still find herself in the mix for attention for nomination #9 for Woody Allen’s WonderWheel later this year. And Elba stands a long shot chance in Supporting Actor for Molly’sGame.
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