Lionsgate is hoping the Jesus Revolution picks up plenty of followers when it debuts February 24th. The faith based drama set in the 1970s is directed by Jon Erwin and Brent McCorkle. Erwin, along with his brother Andrew, are responsible for making such genre successes as Woodlawn, I Can Only Imagine, and American Underdog. The cast includes Joel Courtney, Anna Grace Barlow, Jonathan Roumie, Kimberly Williams-Paisley, and Kelsey Grammer.
Christian themed pics are tricky to predict. They can often exceed expectations, but there’s a few that don’t match forecasts. The track history of the Erwins is more with the former. A gross exceeding $10 million is certainly doable. Underdog, focused on the rise of quarterback Kurt Warner, made $5.9 million in its premiere. However, it opened during Christmas weekend of 2021 when competition was fierce. I’ll say Revolution tops that figure while not hitting double digits.
Jesus Revolution opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million
Blogger’s Note (03/14/18): I am revisiting my estimate considerably upwards to $5.4 million
Playing in theaters next weekend is the faith based drama ICanOnlyImagine, which tells the story behind the making of the most popular Christian contemporary song of all time. The song shares the title of the film from the band MercyMe with J. Michael Finley as lead singer Bart Millard. Costars include Dennis Quaid, Cloris Leachman, and Trace Adkins. The directors are Andrew and Jon Erwin, makers of Woodlawn and Moms’ NightOut.
I’ve yet to see a theater count for Imagine, but I would guess it’ll be relatively low at about 1,000. This genre has shown the ability to over perform estimates. That said, this one seems to be generating rather meager buzz. The Erwin brothers have seen their previous two outings make about $4 million for their starts. I’ll predict Imagine doesn’t quite reach that number.
ICanOnlyImagine opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million
It’s an extremely busy weekend at the box office as five new titles open up: the wide release of the acclaimed Steve Jobs, Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter, sixth franchise entry Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, Bill Murray comedy Rock the Kasbah, and 80s cartoon live-action adaptation Jem and the Holograms. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
With the quintet of newbies premiering, it’s creating some real unpredictability as to what will come out on top, especially considering the fact that current champ Goosebumps could see a minimal decline in its second weekend due to the Halloween frame.
I’m going with Steve Jobs and its hot Oscar buzz coming out on top, but it could certainly debut a little lower than my estimate with meager drop-offs in subsequent weekends. The Last Witch Hunter could certainly over perform, though it appears unlikely Paranormal Activity has any shot at the top of the charts due to its lower theater count (my individual post on it explains further). Kasbah and Jem seem likely for single digit debuts outside the top five.
As for other holdovers, look for Bridge of Spies to have the tiniest decline of all unless Goosebumps holds up even better than my forecast. Guillermo del Toro’s Crimson Peak is likely to have the worst sophomore decline after its lackluster opening.
And with that, on a supremely unpredictable weekend, my estimates for the top ten:
Steve Jobs
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
2. Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (representing a drop of 25%)
3. The Last Witch Hunter
Predicted Gross: $15.8 million
4. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)
6. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
7. Rock the Kasbah
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
8. Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)
9. Crimson Peak
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 53%)
10. Jem and the Holograms
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
Box Office Results (October 16-18)
Kid friendly Goosebumps managed to knock The Martian off its two week perch on top as it grossed a solid $23.6 million, beyond my $19.4M projection. As mentioned, this should hold up well in weekend #2.
The Martian slipped to second with $21.3 million, a bit under my $24.6M forecast for a terrific three week total of $143M.
Landing in third was Steven Spielberg’s acclaimed Bridge of Spies, posting an OK $15.3 million (compared to my $21.2M estimate). The good news is that Spies should perform well throughout the fall with its own Academy Award buzz going for it.
Crimson Peak flopped in fourth place with just $13.1 million compared to my $15.8M prediction. This one more or less got lost in the shuffle and represents a disappointment for director Guillermo del Toro.
Hotel Transylvania 2 was fifth with $12.6 million, lower than my $16M projection and its total is at $136M.
Languishing in sixth is the bomb Pan with $5.8 million in its second weekend (I said $6.8M). Its embarrassing two week haul is at $25M.
Finally, faith based football drama Woodlawn debuted in ninth (as I predicted) with $4 million, right in line with my $4.3M estimate.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
It’s a very bustling weekend at the box office as four new titles make their debuts: Steven Spielberg’s Cold War thriller Bridge of Spies with Tom Hanks, family friendly Goosebumps, Guillermo del Toro’s gothic horror offering Crimson Peak and faith based football drama Woodlawn. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:
Even with the slew of high profile premieres, they all could fall behind Ridley Scott’s critically acclaimed and audience pleasing The Martian, which looks to three peat. After a great second weekend, the pic is likely to only lose about a third of its audience once again. As I see it, only Bridge of Spies and or Goosebumps could dethrone it, but I’m doubtful.
As for other holdovers, Hotel Transylvania 2 should continue its stellar run in week #4 while box office bomb Pan will probably lose over half its audience, leaving it flailing in sixth place.
And with that, my top 6 projections for what promises to be a fascinating weekend:
The Martian
Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)
2. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $21.2 million
3. Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $19.4 million
4. Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $16 million (representing a drop of 31%)
5. Crimson Peak
Predicted Gross: $15.8 million
6. Pan
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)
My prediction for Woodlawn, opening on a relatively low 1500 screens, is $4.3 million and that probably puts it in ninth place.
BOX OFFICE RESULTS (OCTOBER 9-11)
As expected, The Martian kept rolling along with its impressive numbers while new entries to the weekend all failed to gain an audience. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon sci fi blockbuster added $37 million to its coffers, right on pace with my $36.8M estimate to bring its total to $108 million (matching its reported budget).
Hotel Transylvania 2 remained in runner up position with $20.4 million, in line with my $21.7M projection for a three week haul of $116 million.
Another family offering, Peter Pan origin tale Pan, stumbled badly to the tune of a $15.3 million start. This is below my $17.6M prediction. With a rumored budget of $150 million, this represents a massive bomb for Warner Bros and it will struggle to even earn a third of that budget domestically. Ouch.
Holdovers populated spots 4-6: The Intern with $8.6 million compared to my $8M estimate to bring its total to $49 million; Sicario with $7.5 million compared to my $6.9M estimate to bring its total to nearly $27 million; and Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials with $5.3 million for a $70 million overall gross. I incorrectly had Maze outside the top six.
That’s because I gave far too much credit to Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, which expanded nationwide and posted a paltry seventh place showing of only $3.7 million. I predicted $11.9M. Oops. This easily gave the Oscar winning director of Forrest Gump the worst opening of his long career and pretty much snuffed out any chance of the critically respected effort garnering Academy Awards attention.
Finally, the Andrew Garfield/Michael Shannon thriller 99 Homes opened in limited fashion. I said it’d eek out a $1.8 million gross, but it managed just $647,000.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
This Friday, the faith based sports drama Woodlawn hits screens and it’s the latest in a steady stream of pictures in the genre to roll out. The desegregation football true story features Sean Astin, Jon Voight and Sherri Shepherd and comes from the makers of Moms’ Night Out, which made just $4.2 million in its debut in May 2014.
Woodlawn is slated to premiere on around 1500 screens, a relatively low number. In August of 2014, another Christian themed gridiron drama, When the Game Stands Tall, opened to $8.3 million on over 2600 screens. It would stand to reason that Woodlawn’s gross will be quite a bit lower, due to theater count alone.
Add it all up and I have it opening to just over what Moms’ Night Out earned for a pretty muted start.
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