Box Office Predictions: March 18-20

Two new entries populate the multiplexes this weekend as third YA franchise entry The Divergent Series: Allegiant and faith based drama Miracles from Heaven debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/the-divergent-series-allegiant-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/miracles-from-heaven-box-office-prediction/

While I have Allegiant opening below its predecessors Divergent and Insurgent, it should still manage to end the two week dominance of Zootopia atop the charts. I have Miracles posting a solid third place showing and it could play well into Easter weekend in its sophomore frame if word of mouth is strong.

As for holdovers, Disney’s Zootopia should fall to the runner up position and keep its terrific returns coming. 10 Cloverfield Lane was a hit with the critics but only received a middling B- Cinemascore grade, so I look for its second week drop to be big. Deadpool should round out the top five.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

The Divergent Series: Allegiant

Predicted Gross: $43.7 million

2. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 37%)

3. Miracles from Heaven

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $20.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday prediction)

4. 10 Cloverfield Lane

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (March 11-13)

Zootopia continued to rule the box office kingdom this weekend with an even smaller than expected drop in weekend #2. The Disney animated tale, fresh off its record setting opening frame, grossed $51.3 million (outpacing my $41.6M estimate) for a $143M total.

10 Cloverfield Lane couldn’t come to close to matching its predecessor’s $40 million premiere in 2008, but managed a respectable $24.7 million (compared to my $28.3M prognosis). Considering its reported small budget, it should turn a nice profit.

London Has Fallen was third in its sophomore weekend with $10.8 million, just above my $9.9M prediction for a ten day total of $39M.

Fourth place was massive hit Deadpool with $10.8 million (a bit higher than my prediction of $9.4M) for a four week tally of $328M.

In fifth was the Tina Fey comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot with $4.6 million for a ten day total of $14M. I incorrectly had it outside my top 6 predictions.

That’s because I grossly overestimated two newcomers. There was one exception: rom com The Perfect Match was sixth with $4.2 million. I said $4.1M. At least I was close on that one…

As for The Young Messiah and The Brothers Grimsby… not so much. The faith based drama Messiah opened in seventh at just $3.2 million, way below my generous $12.7M estimate. As for Sacha Baron Cohen’s critically reviled Grimsby, it fared even slightly worse in 8th place with $3.2 million compared to my generous $11.4M estimate.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 11-13

Four new titles debut this weekend at the box office to try and challenge Zootopia after its record breaking debut. They are: semi-sequel 10 Cloverfield Lane, Sacha Baron Cohen comedy The Brothers Grimsby, Biblical drama The Young Messiah, and rom com The Perfect Match. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/10-cloverfield-lane-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-brothers-grimsby-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-young-messiah-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-perfect-match-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Disney’s Zootopia should fairly easily control the #1 spot for the second weekend in a row, unless Cloverfield significantly exceeds my prognosis. The real battle among the newcomers could be for the #3 slot and I have Messiah slightly edging Grimsby. The number five position could be a battle between holdovers London Has Fallen and Deadpool as I believe the former will have a higher percentage dropoff than the latter. Opening on a limited number of screens, my $4.1M prediction for The Perfect Match should keep it outside the top six.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for this weekend:

Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $41.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

2. 10 Cloverfield Lane

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

3. The Young Messiah

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. The Brothers Grimsby

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. London Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

6. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (March 4-6)

Disney had a banner weekend as Zootopia had the largest traditional animation opening ever for the studio at a blazing $75 million, soaring past my meager $54.4M projection. The animal tale can also claim highest animated debut for the month of March. As mentioned, it should easily stampede its competitors and remain in first next weekend.

Action sequel London Has Fallen couldn’t match its predecessor Olympus Has Fallen‘s $30M premiere from three years ago. The badly reviewed follow-up earned $21.6 million, under my $24.6M prediction and I look for it to lose over half its audience in its sophomore frame.

Deadpool dropped to third with $16.7 million (in line with my $16.9M estimate) for an incredible tally of $311M.

Tina Fey’s so-so reviewed war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot had a soft opening for fourth with $7.4 million, a tad below my $8.4M projection.

In fifth, box office dud Gods of Egypt took a nosedive from its dismal debut last weekend with $5.1 million (I was slightly kinder with $5.8M) for a total of $23M.

Finally, British horror offering The Other Side of the Door opened in limited fashion with only $1.2 million (compared to my $2.1M estimate) for just 16th place.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 4-6

A quartet of new releases start out the month of March at the box office this weekend. They are Disney Animation’s Zootopia, action sequel London Has Fallen, Tina Fey war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, and British horror entry The Other Side of the Door. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/zootopia-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/london-has-fallen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/whiskey-tango-foxtrot-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/the-other-side-of-the-door-box-office-prediction/

Zootopia should have no trouble ending the three week domination of Deadpool atop the charts while I expect London to hit the #2 spot, putting Ryan Reynolds’ vulgar superhero in the three spot with Whiskey placing fourth. Box office dud Gods of Egypt should be fifth in its second weekend, as long as its anticipated hefty decline doesn’t allow Kung Fu Panda 3 to remain in the top five. As for The Other Side of the Door, it’s only opening on around 500 screens and my $2.1 million prediction for it leaves it far outside the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $54.4 million

2. London Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million

3. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Gods of Egypt

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (February 26-28)

As anticipated, Deadpool maintained the #1 position for the third weekend in a row. The three new entries were, as Donald Trump might say, “low energy”. Ryan Reynolds’ phenomenon took in $31.1 million (compared to my $28M forecast) for a total of $285M.

Gods of Egypt proved to be the first massive bomb of the year as the inexplicably budgeted $140 million action fantasy grossed just $14.1 million, which was on pace with my $13.9M estimate.

Animated sequel Kung Fu Panda 3 was third in weekend #5 with $8.8 million, in line with my $8.2M projection for a total gross of $128M.

Biblical drama Risen was fourth in its sophomore frame with $6.8 million, right there with my $7.1M prediction for a ten day total of $22M.

Two newcomers had soft debuts for the fifth and sixth slots. Heist thriller Triple 9 earned $6.1 million (just below my prediction of $6.9M) for fifth while Olympic drama Eddie the Eagle was iced in sixth with only $6 million (I was much kinder with an $11.2M estimate).

And that’ll do it for now. folks! Until next time…

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot Box Office Prediction

Tina Fey headlines the war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, out next weekend and the 30 Rock star hopes to capitalize on the goodwill audiences gave with her Christmas time hit Sisters. Glenn Ficarra and John Requa, the directors of Crazy, Stupid, Love and Focus, are behind the camera with Margot Robbie, Martin Freeman, Billy Bob Thornton, and Alfred Molina amongst the supporting players.

The Afghanistan set pic could benefit with solid reviews (they’re not out yet). Even if Foxtrot receives them, it likely faces an uphill battle to open big out of the gate. Sisters started rather slow at $13.9 million, but eventually grossed nearly $90M domestically (it did open against something called Star Wars: The Force Awakens, to be fair). However, that film had Fey’s partner in hilarity Amy Poehler alongside her.

I believe this should manage to open higher than Fey’s Admission, which flunked out with a $6.1M opening three years ago. Whether it reaches double digits is a legit question and I’ll predict it falls a bit under that.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million