Warner Bros looks for its fruitful 2025 to keep rolling when The Conjuring: Last Rites hits theaters on September 5th. The studio has had horror hits this year via Sinners and Weapons. Rites marks the fourth proper feature in the series that began in 2013 and ninth overall in the franchise when counting spinoffs Annabelle and The Nun and their sequels. Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga reprise their roles as paranormal investigators Ed and Lorraine Warren. Michael Chaves, who made #3 The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It and The Nun II, directs. Costars include Mia Tomlinson and Ben Hardy.
2021’s Devil actually had the lowest opening weekend of the entire franchise with $24 million. That comes with an asterisk as it premiered during COVID times and was unveiled simultaneously on HBO Max. 2023’s The Nun II brought the scary universe back to normal debuts at $32 million. The original Nun from 2018 boasts the highest debut of the whole lot at $53 million.
Last Rites is pacing to reach those heights and should exceed the $40 million beginnings like the first two Conjuring pics managed to do at $40 million and $41 million, respectively. I am projecting that it’ll outdo The Nun for a franchise best haul.
The Conjuring: Last Rites opening weekend prediction: $58.2 million
Three newcomers and one summer classic celebrating a half century in existence will work hard to earn box office dollars this Labor Day weekend. We have comedy remake The Roses with Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman, Darren Aronofsky’s crime thriller Caught Stealing starring Austin Butler and Zoë Kravitz, Peter Dinklage in the splatter reboot The Toxic Avenger Unrated, and the 50th anniversary reissue of Steven Spielberg’s Jaws out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:
We’ll discuss Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event in the results section below. We know it won’t be #1 since the streamer put it out only as a two-day multiplex event on Saturday and Sunday this past weekend.
That means Weapons should return to the top spot as I don’t see the fresh foursome challenging it. The acclaimed horror flick should remain in the teens as holdovers usually have meager declines or even slight increases over the Friday to Monday of Labor Day weekend compared to the previous weekend.
The Roses could manage the best start of the new titles though I have it slightly behind the fourth weekend of Freakier Friday.
Caught Stealing might be stuck in fourth with The Fantastic Four: First Steps just behind in fifth and the Jaws reissue in sixth.
As for Toxic, my $1.8 million guesstimate puts it far down the charts.
The only placement I’m confident in is Weapons in 1st while the others jockey for position. Keep in mind that these estimates are made for the four-day holiday and here’s how I envision the top six:
1. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million
2. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
3. The Roses
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
4. Caught Stealing
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
6. Jaws 50th Anniversary
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (August 22-24)
After two months plus on the streaming service, Netflix made an unconventional move by releasing a sing-along version of their massive hit KPop Demon Hunters on Saturday and Sunday. They were conventional in not officially reporting its numbers. However, estimates put it at $19.2 million and that’s ahead of my $13.8 million call and easily strong enough for 1st place. With an over $11k plus per screen average, kids had no trouble getting their folks to bring them out. The specialized engagement is only for the aforementioned two days.
Weapons was second with $15.4 million, just under my $16.1 million projection. Zach Cregger’s disappearance tale has amassed $115 million in three weeks.
Freakier Friday was third with $8.8 million, on pace with my $8.7 million forecast. The Disney sequel has taken in $70 million after three weeks.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps, in week five, was fourth with $6 million (I said $5.8 million) for $257 million thus far.
The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $5.1 million, in line with my $5.2 million call for $66 million in four weeks.
Action sequel Nobody 2 tumbled 60% in its sophomore outing with $3.7 million. I was a bit more generous at $4.8 million. The tally is a mere $16 million.
Finally, Ethan Coen’s noirish comedy Honey Don’t! opened in 8th with $3 million. That’s nothing to brag about, but it did outshine my $1.8 million prediction.
We are only three days away from festival season beginning in earnest so let’s call these Oscar predictions the calm before the storm. And it’s certainly the last update before major changes will undoubtedly materialize.
Venice kicks off Wednesday where we get our first looks at numerous pictures listed below. That includes After the Hunt, Bugonia, Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Scarlet, and Below the Clouds to name a few. The Italian fest runs through September 6th.
On September 4th, the Toronto Film Festival gets underway. That’s right after Telluride plays over Labor Day weekend (their lineup will announce this week). The Canadian fest includes such high-profile contenders as Rental Family, Hamnet, Ballad of a Small Player, Hedda, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Christy, and The Lost Bus.
Keep an eye on this blog for scores of Oscar prediction posts over the next three weeks spotlighting these pics and more. As for this update – Picture, Director, and the four acting races remain the same. Even with that stability (for the moment), I’ll note some interesting developments:
The trailer for Daniel Day-Lewis’s first movie in eight years, Anemone, dropped. It was enough to almost put him in my Best Actor quintet as he rose three spots from 10th to 7th. His costar Sean Bean is also listed for the first time as a possibility in Supporting Actor.
Amy Madigan’s memorable (and creepy) supporting work in Weapons earns the actress her first mention in Supporting Actress. I have her in 8th, but don’t be surprised if she rises given the film’s box office success and the inevitable slides of performers currently ahead of her.
The first trailer for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme premiered. I now have it receiving the third most nominations behind Sinners and Wicked: For Good.
Ariana Grande’s Wicked: For Good turn is back at #1 in Supporting Actress with Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt) dipping from 1st to 3rd. We’ll know soon enough via Venice whether Hunt is an across the board awards player or not. There’s some general skepticism which explains the pic’s drop in numerous categories including BP, the supporting fields, and its original screenplay.
You can read all the movement below and be assured that lots of speculation is coming in the days ahead!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rental Family (PR: 10) (+2)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Hamnet (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)
16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (E)
17. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (E)
18. The Secret Agent (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Smashing Machine (PR: 20) (+1)
20. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (E)
22. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 19) (-4)
24. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
F1
The Life of Chuck
Nouvelle Vague
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)
12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (E)
13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (-3)
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (E)
11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (E)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (E)
13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (E)
14. Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (E)
13. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skaragård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (E)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Rental Family (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (+1)
12. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Die, My Love
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (E)
7. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 10) (+1)
10. SIrât (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All That’s Left of You
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Scarlet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Arco (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Below the Clouds (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Deaf President Now! (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Come See Me in the Good Light
Architection
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Couture (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)
10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mother Mary
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 28 Years Later (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Christy (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wolf Man
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Sentimental Value
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-1)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-2)
9. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
TBD from Zootopia 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-2)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (E)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Superman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (E)
5. F1 (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-2)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mickey 17
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
10 Nominations
Marty Supreme
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
After the Hunt, Bugonia, Jay Kelly
5 Nominations
Frankenstein, Rental Family
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
3 Nominations
Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Below the Clouds, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
We’re in the dog days of August as Weapons seeks to three-peat at #1 this weekend though a fascinating challenger could emerge depending on Netflix’s reporting. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event looks to capitalize on its massively successful animated streaming numbers with a Saturday and Sunday engagement of theatrical screenings. We also have Ethan Coen’s dark comedy Honey Don’t! out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
KPop Demon Hunters is already the highest viewed Netflix animated picture in history. The streamer decided to give it the silver screen sing-along treatment this Saturday and Sunday only. Here’s the catch: Netflix usually doesn’t report their numbers. I think they could make an exception due to the unprecedented nature of this release. If they do, I believe low teens is doable and maybe even more. If it manages to post a 1st or 2nd place debut, I would think Netflix would want the bragging rights. We shall see what they decide.
As for Don’t!, my lowly $1.8 million projection won’t get it in the top five regardless of whether KPop unveils its grosses. After receiving middling reviews from Cannes and being put out on a meager 1200 screens, look for this to fade rapidly.
That leaves holdovers and Weapons may see a drop in the mid 30s to repeat at #1. In fact, the top five should remain the same quintet if KPop isn’t in the mix. However, I suspect Nobody 2 might have the largest percentage drop and that could result in a fall from third to fifth (or fourth to sixth). That would allow The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 to each rise a spot with Freakier Friday either remaining runner-up or being third.
Here’s my top 6 take with the caveat that KPop‘s placement might not occur:
1. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
**2. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
3. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
5. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
6. Nobody
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
Box Office Results (August 15-17)
Weapons easily pummeled the competition yet again in its sophomore frame with $24.4 million, right in line with my $24.9 million call. Zach Cregger’s critically hailed horror thriller is up to $88 million after ten days.
Freakier Friday was second in weekend #2 with $14.2 million, slightly exceeding my forecast of $13 million. The Disney sequel has made $54 million.
Action sequel Nobody 2 with Bob Odenkirk opened at the lower end of expectations with $9.2 million, failing to catch my $11.3 million projection. While it managed to outdo its 2021 predecessor, the original faced COVID challenges.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps was fourth with $9 million (I said $7.5 million). The MCU pic’s tally is $247 million after four weeks.
The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $7.5 million. The 29% decline meant it surpassed my $5.5 million take. The animated sequel has earned $53 million in three weeks.
Action sequel Nobody 2 starring Bob Odenkirk is the only wide release vying for a spot in the top five this weekend as Weapons aims to repeat in first place. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:
The first Nobody in 2021 premiered as COVID was presenting challenges to theaters. The follow-up is expected to build upon on the original’s numbers. I still question whether this gets to teens and I am putting it a shade under. That likely means a third place showing.
Weapons from Zach Cregger had a spectacular debut (more on that below). With an A- Cinemascore (impressive for the genre), its sophomore dip could be less pronounced than other summer offerings. Lack of competition should also help. I will warn that my drop-off projections have been a bit generous lately. Yet I’ll say a low to mid 40s ease should mean a mid 20s gross and that leaves it in first with room to spare.
As for Freakier Friday, it could fall more than 50% and still remain in second. Holdovers The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 should round out the high five. Here’s how I have it playing out:
1. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
2. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $13 million
3. Nobody 2
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
5. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (August 8-10)
Weapons capitalized on its intriguing trailer and laudatory reviews, dominating the chart with $43.5 million. That’s way ahead of my meager $28.8 million take and another 2025 winner for Warner Bros. While I don’t see it legging out like Sinners (another WB property), the road ahead should be fruitful.
Disney’s Freakier Friday with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan had to settle for second with $28.5 million. That’s on the lower end of its expected range and a bit below my $32.5 million prediction. It’ll hope for family audiences to keep it afloat in the coming weeks. That could be a tall order with its intended audience going back to school.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps, after two weeks at #1, was third with $15.7 million. The near 60% plummet (again) was under my $18.9 million estimate and the reboot stands at $230 million.
The Bad Guys 2 was fourth with $10.5 million in its second go-round. Once again I was more generous at $13.6 million. The animated sequel has made $43 million and is likely to fall short of its predecessor’s domestic tally ($97 million).
The Naked Gun rounded out the top five with $8.3 million and I said it would do $10 million. The two-week total is $32 million.
Finally, Sketch from Angel Studios debuted in lowly 10th place with $2.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.9 million since its Wednesday bow. I went with $3.9 million and $5.8 million, respectively.
My first Oscar predictions in two weeks finds It Was Just an Accident (the Palme d’Or recipient at Cannes) moving back into my Best Picture top ten and its maker Jafar Panahi in the directorial quintet. This is at the expense of Frankenstein and its maker Guillermo del Toro. The acting derbies, meanwhile, remain unchanged as far as to the 20 nominees with festival season around the corner.
Starting in about three weeks – Venice, Telluride, and Toronto will start to clear a lot of this speculation up. I’ll sneak in another update in a couple weeks before the onslaught of screenings begin.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Hamnet (PR: 13) (-2)
16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 17) (+1)
17. No Other Choice (PR: 18) (+1)
18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 16) (-2)
19. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 20) (+1)
20. The Smashing Machine (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (+3)
22. The Secret Agent (PR: 21) (-1)
23. F1 (PR: 19) (-4)
24. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (-1)
25. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Die, My Love
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)
7. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)
15. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (+3)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12 ) (E)
13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, At the Sea
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)
15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Is This Thing On? (PR: 11) (-1)
13. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 15) (+2)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)
15. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ella McKay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)
14. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Die, My Love (PR: 14) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Scarlet (PR: 5) (+3)
3. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Arco (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Elio (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. Architection (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Timestamp
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Rental Family (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Rivals of Amziah King
Wicked: For Good
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Couture (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Snow White
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
5. After the Hunt (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
9. F1 (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wicked: For Good
Frankenstein
A House of Dynamite
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)
7. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Christy (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Superman
Mother Mary
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 5) (+1)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)
7. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Warfare (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Superman (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
After the Hunt, Bugonia, Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Rental Family
3 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
Kiss of the Spider Woman, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, Zootopia 2
In 2022, Zach Cregger impressed critics and horror fans alike with Barbarian. He seems to have repeated that success with Weapons, out Friday. Focused on a mystery surrounding 17 missing children, Josh Brolin and Julia Garner star. The supporting cast includes Cary Christopher, Alden Ehrenreich, Austin Abrams, Benedict Wong, and Amy Madigan.
With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 79 Metacritic (the latter score right in line with Barbarian), Weapons aims to be an August sleeper hit. This is a genre that struggles to generate awards attention. That should hold true here, though I’ll note several reviewers are praising Cregger’s script. Original Screenplay, however, is likely to be too crowded for Weapons to contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Freakier Friday looks to rule the whole weekend while critically lauded horror pic Weapons and family fantasy Sketch from Angel Studios also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan reprise their roles from the 2003 body swap remake Freaky Friday in Freakier Friday. An absence of female driven material over the summer and goodwill towards the predecessor should mean an #1 premiere and I’m projecting low 30s (barring a feasible Weapons over performance).
Weapons should be in line for a runner-up start with encouraging word-of-mouth and effective trailers. High 20s or possible more seems achievable.
As for Sketch, it’s getting solid initial reviews. However, distributor Angel has stalled with their output lately. While I think it could have the capacity to surprise, my $3.9 million estimate from Friday to Sunday and $5.8 million prediction when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers would put it outside of the top five (likely in 8th).
Let’s talk holdovers. The Fantastic Four: First Steps fell considerably more than I assumed in its sophomore frame (more on that below). For the third go-round, a 50-52% drop is probably what we’ll see. The dips shouldn’t be as pronounced for The Bad Guys 2 or The Naked Gun in their second weekends. I’ll say mid to high 30s for the former and 40% for the latter.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:
1. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $32.5 million
2. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $28.8 million
3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
4. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
5. The Naked Gun
Predicted Gross: $10 million
Box Office Results (August 1-3)
I wrongly thought The Fantastic Four: First Steps would experience a low 50s decline similar to Superman from a couple weeks back. Yet Marvel’s 37th feature tumbled 67% to $38.6 million compared to my far more generous $50.6 million take. The studio can’t love that though it should level off this coming weekend to around 50% (similar to what Thor: Love and Thunder dropped after its high 60s fall).
Two high-profile newbies couldn’t match my projections. DreamWorks Animation’s sequel The Bad Guys 2 was second with $21.9 million. That’s a bit under what its 2022 predecessor managed and I thought it would do a bit over at $28.1 million.
The Naked Gun reboot with Liam Neeson had critics on its side, but still opened on the lower end of its expected range at $16.8 million in third. I had it pegged at $22.3 million. Paramount is hoping for decent legs throughout August.
Superman was fourth with $13.7 million (I said $13.5 million) as the DC reboot has amassed $316 million after four weeks.
Jurassic World Rebirth rounded out the top five with $8.7 million, a tad ahead of my $7.6 million call. After five weeks, it is roaring with $317 million.
Finally, body horror tale Together with Dave Franco and Alison Brie was sixth with $6.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That’s on pace with my respective predictions of $7 million and $10.2 million.
After receiving critical kudos and impressive box office numbers for his solo directorial debut Barbarian in 2022, Zach Cregger’s follow-up Weapons is unloaded on August 8th. The horror mystery about a group of kids vanishing into the night stars Josh Brolin and Julia Garner (currently surfing multiplexes in The Fantastic Four: First Steps). Supporting players include Cary Christopher, Alden Ehrenreich, Austin Abrams, Benedict Wong, and Amy Madigan.
Effective trailers, appreciation for Barbarian, and early reviews (100% on RT currently) have caused genre fans to circle Weapons on their viewing calendar. While Cregger’s first scary movie started off with $10 million, his second is expected to double that figure and then some. Some estimates even have this getting to $30M+. I’ll be a bit more conservative and go high 20s.
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