Some Oscar categories may have become more solidified (Supporting Actor) while others remain unsettled (Actor and Supporting Actor and perhaps Best Picture) courtesy of tonight’s 32nd Actor Awards. Formerly known as SAG, Kristen Bell returned to host the Netflix aired ceremony where Sinners remained a viable alternative to One Battle After Another for Best Picture in two weeks.
It was the only film to take 2 prizes as I correctly called it for Best Ensemble. Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale did take an acting honor, but not the one I forecasted. In Best Actor, Michael B. Jordan is the winner over Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and this opens up the real possibility of him grabbing the Oscar. After Robert Aramayo (I Swear) took BAFTA, Chalamet is looking truly vulnerable.
On a night where I went 4 for 6, the other miss was projecting BAFTA victor Wunmi Mosaku’s work in Sinners for Supporting Actress. Instead the Screen Actors Guild went with Critics Choice winner Amy Madigan in Weapons. That race is legit looking like an open contest between Madigan (who now has 2 key precursors) and Mosaku and Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another).
Battle‘s Sean Penn is your Supporting Actor honoree and he’s grabbed 2 trophies in a row (BAFTA). I wouldn’t want to bet against him on Oscar night for what would be a third gold statue.
Jessie Buckley’s sweep continued in Best Actress for Hamnet. With all preceding ceremonies going her way, she is unquestionably the easiest acting derby to predict for the Academy.
In the Stunt Ensemble race, the voters predictably went with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.
From a pure precursor standpoint, Battle has won top honors at the Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and PGA. That mix is hard to deny. Yet late breaking momentum certainly makes Sinners the easy runner-up and a threat to be the Academy’s BP.
Stay tuned to the blog for final Oscar predictions in a few days!
The ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards is now the Actor Awards and the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs Sunday, March 1st. Kristen Bell returns to host a show that is tough to predict, especially in the supporting fields where no frontrunner has emerged via the precursors. Will the Screen Actors Guild help make it clearer or muddy it up even more?
Let’s walk through the six movie races with my thoughts and a winner and runner-up projection. I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with initial thoughts and how I did.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Over the past 10 years, this ensemble award has matched the Academy’s Best Picture half the time (Spotlight, Parasite, CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer). I would definitely say the two pics with a shot to win are Battle and Sinners, the two BP favorites. While the former may have an edge with the Academy, my hunch is that SAG goes with Ryan Coogler’s sprawling cast.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
This category has matched Oscar 6 out the last 10 years. Actress is the only competition where the possibility of a sweep is still open. Jessie Buckley has triumphed everywhere else and I see no compelling reason why this guild would change that.
WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
The idea of a Chalamet sweep was halted when BAFTA unexpectedly rolled with Robert Aramayo in I Swear (who isn’t nominated here or at the Oscars). My hesitation to pick Chalamet has less to do with that and more to do with the fact he won SAG Actor last year for A Complete Unknown. I could see Hawke taking this prize for his showy role or the voters selecting Jordan. Ultimately I’m not pulling the trigger on the upset, but don’t discount the possibility. There is a 7 for 10 Actor/Oscar match over the past decade.
WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Ugh… this is a tough one. There is no consistency among the precursors – Critics Choice went with Madigan, the Globes honored Taylor, and BAFTA picked Mosaku. One could certainly argue that Mosaku has the momentum and that if Sinners takes Best Ensemble, it increases the chances of a solo acting victory. Taylor could solidify her status as Oscar favorite with this award. This is essentially a three-way coin flip. Madigan could certainly emerge as this branch has shown the ability to honor the horror genre in a way the Academy doesn’t (see Demi Moore last year for The Substance). My gut says Sinners gets that one solo prize though I cannot stress enough that I almost went with Taylor. There is a 9 for 10 match with this branch and Oscar since 2015.
WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
There’s a 9 for 10 match here as well and this is just as wide open as Supporting Actress. Critics Choice called Elordi as their winner, Globes picked Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value (not nominated here), and BAFTA went with Sean Penn. In this case, I am going with the BAFTA momentum though his costar del Toro might pose the realest threat.
WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Tom Cruise’s franchise is known for stunts so I wouldn’t bet against it.
The 37th Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards take place this Saturday and their best of prize has become a rather reliable bellwether for the Academy’s Best Picture. The two have matched 7 out of the last 8 years with 2019 being the exception when PGA chose 1917 and Oscar went with Parasite.
PGA also honors documentaries and animated features. Let’s walk through each race with a winner and runner-up selection.
Daryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Weapons
PGA and the Academy have a 9 for 10 match this year. Weapons makes the cut on this list with The Secret Agent replacing it at the Oscars. This is expected to come down to Warner Bros offerings One Battle and Sinners. While I am predicting the latter to get Best Ensemble at Sunday’s Actor Awards, I still see Battle as the Oscar frontrunner and therefore am picking it here. That said, if Sinners gets this, the momentum will have shifted.
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
The Alabama Solution, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Mom Jayne, Ocean with David Attenborough, The Perfect Neighbor, The Tale of Silyan
At BAFTA over the weekend, Nobody rose above favored The Perfect Neighbor. In this doc derby, PGA has often shown a lean toward the most high profile project and that would be Neighbor. I’ll go with it with the caveat that this category can be unpredictable.
WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor
Runner-Up: The Alabama Solution
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
The Bad Guys 2, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Zootopia 2
I find myself tempted to go with Zootopia 2 in an upset, but I can’t bet against juggernaut KPop.
I didn’t anticipate mentioning the 2000 feature Billy Elliot in my BAFTA recap covering 2025 pictures, but these voters are dancing to the beat of a different drum so here we are! That’s one surprise of several that developed at the British equivalent of the Academy Awards. It was not surprising that Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another led the way and (yes) won one BAFTA after another. However, the outcome of the acting races provided legit unexpected results and might have a hand in reshaping what happens at the 98th Oscars.
As far as results, I went 14 for 23 in my projections and 1 for 4 in the acting derbies. I correctly forecasted Best Film and Director BAFTAs for One Battle After Another and its maker Anderson. Same goes for its victories in Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography. It also took the Editing prize where I had F1.
In Supporting Actor, Battle‘s Sean Penn emerged in a field where I picked Stellan Skasgård as the winner and had Penn’s costar Benicio del Toro as the runner-up. We now have 3 different Supporting Actor victors in the three highest profiles precursors – Penn at BAFTA, Skarsgård at the Globes, and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) at Critics Choice. Let’s see what SAG Actor does next weekend as this race is wide open.
Battle did nothing but help its status as BP Oscar frontrunner. Yet Sinners didn’t take a significant hit. It won Original Screenplay and I went with Sentimental Value. I correctly picked it for Original Score.
In Supporting Actress, it represented a One Battle miss and a Sinners pickup. I went with Teyana Taylor, but Wunmi Mosaku lodged her first major recognition. Like Supporting Actor, we now have a trio of recipients among the precursors – Mosaku at BAFTA, Taylor at the Globes, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) at Critics Choice. Once again, SAG Actor will be closely viewed in another wide open acting derby. Simply put, I can’t remember the last time both supporting fields were this unpredictable.
That’s not the case in Actress where Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) predictably did a podium walk as her chances at a seasonal sweep are looking strong.
We will not be seeing a Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) sweep. I had him taking Actor with Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) as runner-up. BAFTA went their own way with Robert Aramayo (I Swear). He was additionally named the BAFTA Rising Star. Aramayo is not nominated at Oscar. The last time a BAFTA Best Actor wasn’t among the Academy’s quintet? That would be Jamie Bell in the title role of… you guessed it (!) Billy Elliot.
Here’s where I managed to get it right – Hamnet for Outstanding British Film and Sentimental Value having a subpar day with its sole win for Film Not in the English Language. I was correct in calling Zootopia 2 as Best Animated Film. Same goes for Frankenstein with the trio of Costume Design, Makeup & Hair, and Production Design and F1 in Sound and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Special Visual Effects.
Here’s where I whiffed. I will pat myself on the back for predicting The Perfect Neighbor would not be the documentary that BAFTA selected. Unfortunately I went with 2000 Meters to Andrivka and not Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Could it emerge as a spoiler to a Neighbor Oscar prize?
Pillion looked like the pick for Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer, but BAFTA chose My Father’s Shadow. Same with Children’s & Family Film where Zootopia 2 looked probable, but Boong was listed in the envelope. In Casting (always a tough race to project), I Swear emerged over Sentimental Value and my runner-up One Battle.
So what’s the biggest takeaway? I’d say the chaos occurring in the supporting competitions and that Battle vs. Sinners appears to still be a battle.
Today’s ceremony bestowed these numbers of wins for these movies:
6 Wins
One Battle After Another
3 Wins
Frankenstein, Sinners
2 Wins
Hamnet, I Swear
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Boong, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, Sentimental Value, Zootopia 2
I’ll have winner predictions up for SAG Actor (happening a week from today) on the blog soon!
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our third contender among the Supporting Actress nominees is Amy Madigan for Weapons. If you missed the first two write-ups covering the performers from Sentimental Value, you can access them here:
1985 – Best Supporting Actress (Twice in a Lifetime) – lost to Anjelica Huston for Prizzi’s Honor
The Case for Amy Madigan:
The only thespian in the race who’s not a first-time nominee, Madigan’s work as the supremely creepy Aunt Gladys in Zach Cregger’s horror pic arrives 40 years after her initial nod for Twice in a Lifetime. She won the Critics Choice prize and has been nominated at the Globes and SAG Actor. If they bestowed the trophy based on number of Halloween costumed inspired by her role, Madigan would take this in a landslide.
The Case Against Amy Madigan:
Madigan was snubbed at BAFTA. You have to go back to 2018 and Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) to find the last Oscar recipient who didn’t make the cut there. Prior to that, it was Marcia Gay Harden (Pollock) in 2000. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) took the Globe as we await SAG. This genre doesn’t produce a lot of acting winners and Weapons missed all other categories including Original Screenplay and Makeup and Hairstyling. Penélope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona) is the last Supporting Actress honoree whose movie only got one nomination and that was in 2008.
The Verdict:
A SAG victory would elevate Madigan’s stock and she is probably runner-up in the race at the moment behind Taylor.
My Case Of posts will continue with third entrant in Supporting Actor – Delroy Lindo for Sinners…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our second contender among the Supporting Actress nominees is Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass for Sentimental Value. If you missed the first write-up covering her costar Elle Fanning, you can peruse it here:
The Norwegian thespian gets her first Oscar nod along with three of her costars for Joachim Trier’s acclaimed family drama. Precursors nods include the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and a win from the National Board of Review. Value did better than expected on nominations morning and the cast could benefit.
The Case Against Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass:
Her cast mate Stellan Skarsgård appears most likely to benefit in terms of victory chances. Lilleass wasn’t nominated at SAG Actor and only 2 of the 31 previous Academy recipients were ignored by SAG. Vote splitting is probable between her and Fanning. Precursors have gone to Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another (Globes) and Amy Madigan for Weapons (Critics Choice).
The Verdict:
A BAFTA win could increase the chances of a Lilleass upset, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second man up in Supporting Actor and that’s Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our first contender among the Supporting Actress nominees is Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value.
Previous Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Elle Fanning:
The 27-year-old has amassed numerous nods for her TV work on The Great, but her appearance in Joachim Trier’s Norwegian drama is her first Oscar at bat. She was nominated at Critics Choice and by several regional critics groups. Value also had a slight overperformance with nine mentions from the Academy.
The Case Against Elle Fanning:
She is likely to vote split with her costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Fanning did not receive nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG Actor, and wasn’t even shortlisted at BAFTA. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Amy Madigan (Weapons) have taken the Globe and Critics Choice, respectively. The best shot at a victory for this cast is in Supporting Actor with Stellan Skarsgård.
The Verdict:
Most prognosticators did not have Fanning in their quintet. I will give myself a pat on the back for predicting her, but I’m under no illusions that she is a threat to win.
My Case Of posts will continue with our first Supporting Actor write-up and that’s Benicio del Toro from One Battle After Another…
Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs were unveiled five days after the Academy revealed their list. The Brits equivalent of the Oscars can often indicate which nominees and pictures are (or aren’t) having momentum in the general awards space.
Overall I went 92 for 122 (75%) in the feature-length categories. Let’s walk through each race with the hopefuls in contention, how I did, and some initial thoughts.
Best Film
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
No surprise here as One Battle led all nominees with 14 and Sinners right behind with 13. It will probably come down to those two pics with Battle having an edge. I would say Hamnet is a spoiler but it missed some key races.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
The best film five and Lanthimos as I predicted. PTA is the favorite.
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
How I Did: 5/6
I gotta stop leaving out Kate Hudson. She’s in over my upset selection of Andrea Riseborough (Dragonfly). Bet on Buckley.
Best Actor
Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
How I Did: 5/6
Aramayo gets in over Pillion‘s Harry Melling. Chalamet could continue his sweep unless DiCaprio or Hawke upset.
Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)
How I Did: 5/6
A genuine surprise as Amy Madigan (Weapons) is left out in favor of Mulligan. This is likely between Lilleass and Taylor.
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
How I Did: 5/6
I had Stellan’s son Alexander Skarsgård (Pillion) joining the sextet and not Mullan. It’s Stellan who probably has the best odds.
Best Original Screenplay
I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
The Secret Agent over Blue Moon. This is a Value v. Sinners derby.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion
How I Did: 4/5
Ballad over Frankenstein with OBAA out front.
Best Animated Feature
Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
How I Did: 1/3
I whiffed here. First of all, this race typically has four nominees. I had Arco, Demon Slayer, and KPop Demon Hunters and not Elio or Amélie (which was frankly an oversight on my part). It could win and so could Zootopia 2 which is the only flick I correctly called.
Best Documentary
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, 2000 Meters to Andrivka
How I Did: 4/5
Some retribution after my 1/5 showing at the Oscars. I had Ocean with David Attenborough and not Cover-Up. I wouldn’t assume Neighbor takes this even though it’s the Oscar frontrunner. I actually think all five are viable.
Best Film Not in the English Language
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This matches the Academy’s quintet and, like that show, this is probably Agent or Value.
Best Casting
I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
Hamnet (in a notable miss) or Sirāt are out with I Swear and Supreme in. A likely Sinners trophy.
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
How I Did: 4/5
Frankenstein and not Hamnet in another interesting omission. I’ll note this is the only nom for Train Dreams as this should come down to Battle or Sinners.
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 4/5
Unlike Oscar, Wicked managed to get some BAFTA attention (albeit limited). I had Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and not Supreme (which had a solid day). Frankenstein may take this.
Best Editing
F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
Another Battle/Sinners race as F1 and Dynamite show up over Bugonia and (you guessed it) Hamnet.
Best Make Up and Hair
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 3/5
A strange quintet as Hamnet gets an unexpected mention as does Supreme and not One Battle or (more surprisingly) The Smashing Machine. This should go to Frankenstein.
Best Original Score
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Sinners is the frontrunner.
Best Production Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
I had Bugonia and Wicked instead of Marty and Battle. Another probable win for Frankenstein.
Best Sound
F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
How I Did: 3/5
Frankenstein/Warfare over Avatar: Fire and Ash/Wicked. Think Sinners with F1 spoiler possibility.
Best Special Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus
How I Did: 4/5
Dragon, not Superman as Avatar is ahead.
Outstanding British Film
28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die, My Love, Hamnet, H is for Hawk, I Swear, Mr. Burton, Pillion, Steve
How I Did: 7/10
I went with Ballad of a Small Player, The Choral, and Warfare over Jones, Burton, and Steve. One would think Hamnet takes this though I Swear is viable as an upset pick.
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer
The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman
How I Did: 3/5
Ceremony/Want over Oceans with David Attenborough and Urchin. Pillion should win.
Best Children’s + Family Film
Arco, Boong, Lilo + Stitch, Zootopia 2
How I Did: 2/4
Grow and How to Train Your Dragon miss and not Boong and Lilo with Zootopia out front.
That works out to the following movies getting these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
13 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominatons
Hamnet, Marty Supreme
8 Nominations
Frankenstein, Sentimental Value
5 Nominations
Bugonia, I Swear
3 Nominations
The Ballad of Wallis Island, F1, Pillion
2 Nominations
The Secret Agent, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Cover-Up, Blue Moon, Boong, The Ceremony, Die, My Love, Elio, H is for Hawk, A House of Dynamite, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Lilo & Stitch, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Burton, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirāt, Song Sung Blue, Steve, Train Dreams, The Voice of Hind Rajab, A Want in Her, Warfare, Wasteman
The BAFTAs air February 22nd and you can expect a recap on the blog when that happens.
Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs (the British equivalent of the Oscars) are out tomorrow prior to the February 22nd ceremony hosted by Alan Cumming. Unlike previous years, BAFTA nods are hitting after the Academy’s picks which were out last week.
For a blogger who concentrates primarily on the Oscar derby, it makes this announcement a tad anticlimactic since I’m not weighing them against what I anticipate will occur on Oscar nom morning. Nevertheless I’m giving you my forecast for all feature-length races with an alternate named in each. For the directing and acting competitions, BAFTA goes with six nominees. For Outstanding British Film, it is ten. There are four in Animated Film and Children’s & Family Film. In all others (including Best Film), we’re talking five. Got all that? Good. Let’s get to it!
Best Film
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – Bugonia
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Alternate – Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajab
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Andrea Riseborough, Dragonfly
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Harry Melling, Pillion
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Alternate – Brenda Blethyn, Dragonfly
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Alexander Skarsgård, Pillion
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon
I Swear
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – It Was Just an Accident
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Pillion
Alternate – Train Dreams
Best Animated Film
Arco
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba– The Movie: Infinity Castle
KPop Demon Hunters
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Elio
Best Documentary
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Ocean with David Attenborough
The Perfect Neighbor
2000 Meters to Andrivka
Alternate – Becoming Led Zeppelin
Best Film Not in the English Language
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirāt
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Alternate – No Other Choice
Best Casting
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Sirāt
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Cinematography
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Alternate – Frankenstein
Best Costume Design
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Editing
Bugonia
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – F1
Best Make Up & Hair
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Bugonia
Best Original Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Production Design
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – One Battle After Another
Best Sound
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Best Special Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
The Lost Bus
Superman
Alternate – Wicked: For Good
Outstanding British Film
28 Years Later
Ballad of a Small Player
The Ballad of Wallis Island
The Choral
Die, My Love
Hamnet
H is for Hawk
I Swear
Pillion
Warfare
Alternate – Steve
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer
My Father’s Shadow
Ocean with David Attenborough
Pillion
Urchin
Wasteman
Alternate – The Ceremony
Best Children’s & Family Film
Arco
Grow
How to Train Your Dragon
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
That works out to these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
13 Nominations
Hamnet, Sinners
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Pillion
4 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
2 Nominations
Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, F1, I Swear, Ocean with David Attenborough, Sirāt, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Ballad of a Small Player, The Ballad of Wallis Island, The Choral, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Die, My Love, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Dragonfly, Grow, H is for Hawk, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, 28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Urchin, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Warfare, Wasteman, Weapons
After months of forecasting and scores of individual posts on the movies vying for the attention of Oscar voters, nominations for the 98th Academy Awards were unveiled this morning. The ceremony airs March 15th with Conan O’Brien returning to host.
There is an undeniable headline in that Sinners shattered the record for most noms ever with 16. The previous holders of that title were a three-way tie between All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land at 14 apiece. Even without a new race (Casting), Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale still would have broken the record. It is a remarkable achievement that could change the narrative in Best Picture (and others).
A secondary headline? The complete shutout of Wicked: For Good. Its predecessor from just a year ago landed 10 nominations. No one had it goose egging. I had it marked for four mentions and at one time weeks ago, I think I had it landing 10.
Overall I went 87 out of 110 in my feature-length projections (or 79%). Documentary Feature, as it has before, was the bane of my prognosticating existence while Visual Effects also tripped me up.
Some quick fun facts: Stellan Skarsgård is (somehow) the first Supporting Actor contender from a foreign film. The BP nod for One Battle After Another gives Leonardo DiCaprio his 12th BP hopeful. That ties with a record with his This Boy’s Life and Killers of the Flower Moon costar Robert De Niro.
In a second, we’ll walk through each race with some initial thoughts and how I did. First – a reminder that my Case Of posts will be arriving on the blog in short order. As readers may recall, I do individual posts on each Best Picture contender and the 25 hopefuls in Director and the four acting derbies. With each write-up, I give the case for their victory and against it along with a verdict. Those posts will start with the 10 BP nominees and then alternate alphabetically between the directing and acting personnel.
Best Picture
Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams
How I Did: 9/10
F1, my 2nd runner-up, makes the cut over It Was Just an Accident. My Case Of posts will delve deeper, but I do believe Sinners is now a strong possibility to win in a showdown with fellow Warner Bros release One Battle After Another.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
How I Did: 4/5
Runner-up Trier is in over Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident). Like BP, this should be between PTA (Battle) and Coogler (Sinners). The former probably has an edge even if Sinners manages the BP victory.
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
How I Did: 4/5
Hudson lands her second nomination 25 years after her supporting nod for Almost Famous. I went with Chase Infiniti for Battle. Buckley is the frontrunner.
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
The expected quintet materializes with Chalamet hoping the third time is the charm.
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
How I Did: 4/5
Taylor might be the favorite. However, if Sinners takes BP, I wouldn’t sleep on Mosaku. And I’m saying that having not predicted her though she was my runner-up. I had Marty Supreme‘s Odessa A’Zion in her place. There’s Madigan to consider as well as the Sentimental actresses should vote split.
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
How I Did: 4/5
Lindo is in over Paul Mescal as Hamnet had a couple high profile omissions. Penn may be the only one without a convincing win narrative and this could come down to the wire.
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
Moon, which I didn’t list as either of my runner-ups, is in over The Secret Agent. Value is viable though Sinners is the safer bet.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
The five Adapted works from BP are in. A pretty easy call for Battle.
Best International Feature Film
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
How I Did: 4/5
Second runner-up Rajab instead of No Other Choice, which was blanked. This is a fascinating category as Agent vs. Value could be the showdown.
Best Animated Feature
Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This has been the anticipated lineup for several weeks with KPop in the pole position.
Best Documentary Feature
The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor
How I Did: 1/5 (ugh)
The Doc race strikes again and hurts my numbers. I only had Neighbor (the frontrunner… I guess) correctly named as I went with Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, and 2000 Meters to Andrivka.
Best Casting
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
Hamnet (my runner-up) instead of Frankenstein. This should also come down to Battle v. Sinners and I’m leaning toward the latter.
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
How I Did: 4/5
Marty Supreme (my runner-up) instead of Hamnet (another notable miss). A broken record as this is also between Battle and Sinners.
Best Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
A genuine shocker with Avatar in. Its two predecessors didn’t even make this category. I had Wicked: For Good instead (get used to hearing that). Frankenstein is out front, but a Sinners over performance could happen.
Best Film Editing
F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
Value instead of Hamnet. Once again, Battle or Sinners.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister
How I Did: 4/5
2nd runner-up Stepsister is in contention over Wicked. Frankenstein shouldn’t have any trouble here.
Best Original Score
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
Bugonia, which I didn’t list in the runners-up, over Sirāt. This is likely to be a Sinners prize.
Best Original Song
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless, “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, “I Lied to You” from Sinners, “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!, “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
How I Did: 4/5
The Verdi! is very much an unexpected inclusion. I had “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light. I’ll also note neither shortlisted Wicked track made it. Unless the Academy decides to finally honor Diane Warren in a competitive race or a Sinners sweep happens, KPop should be golden.
Best Production Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
Runner-Up Battle over (you got it) Wicked. Another potential W for Frankenstein.
Best Sound
F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt
How I Did: 4/5
Runner-up Frankenstein instead of Avatar. This could be between F1 and Sinners with Sirāt as an upset possibility.
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners
How I Did: 2/5 (ugh)
Like Documentary, the VE voters can be unpredictable and they went with Jurassic (first nod in the franchise since 1997’s The Lost World), Bus, and Sinners (getting that historic 16th mention) over Frankenstein, Superman, and (say it with me!) Wicked. The winner isn’t hard to project as Avatar looks to go 3 for 3.
Besides the aforementioned Wicked and No Other Choice, two other notable pics that you won’t find among the nominees are Jay Kelly and The Testament of Ann Lee.
Here is how the nominations did shake out:
16 Nominations (!)
Sinners
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another
9 Nominations
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
Hamnet
4 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, Sirāt
1 Nomination
The Alabama Solution, Arco, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jurassic World Rebirth, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, The Ugly Stepsister, Viva Verdi!, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Weapons, Zootopia 2
Keep an eye out for the Case Of posts as we march toward final predictions in March!
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