After bringing lesser known superheroes to box office dominance over a decade ago, James Gunn helms a reboot with perhaps the most iconic one via Superman starting July 11th. Warner Bros hopes the latest reboot of the Man of Steel saga flies high with David Corenswet donning the tights, Rachel Brosnahan playing Lois Lane, and Nicholas Hoult handling villainous duties as Lex Luthor. The supporting cast includes Edi Gathergi, Anthony Carrigan, Nathan Fillion, Isabela Merced, Pruitt Taylor Vince, Neva Howell, Skyler Gisondo, and Wendell Pierce.
With a reported budget of $225 million, hopes are high for the summer tentpole. Gunn’s contribution as director is in addition to his duties as head of DC Studios. He was given the role after successfully handling three Guardians of the Galaxy features for the MCU. Counting Supergirl, this marks the 10th overall feature in the Supes series that began in 1978.
The best opening of the bunch is 2016’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice which kicked off with $166 million. #2 on the board is 2013’s last proper restart Man of Steel, which made $116 million in its inaugural weekend. Opening above Justice would be a massive victory for WB while debuting below Steel would be a disappointment.
I’m guessing the opening will be somewhere in between, but closer to Steel than Justice.
Superman opening weekend prediction: $128.6 million
Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.
Hollywood hopes moviegoers make it their mission to go to the movies over the long weekend as Disney’s Lilo & Stitch looks to rule the charts with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning placing second. There’s also The Last Rodeo from faith-based Angel Studios debuting and Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd’s dark comedy Friendship expanding wide. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet can be accessed here:
Nostalgia and the Mouse House’s marketing muscle should propel Lilo & Stitch to more impressive heights than, say, Snow White from earlier this year. I have the live-action version of the 2002 animated tale reaching just under $120 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of Memorial Day weekend and just over $140 million for the four-day.
Tom Cruise should easily achieve runner-up status with the eighth and (final?) pic in his nearly 30-year-old franchise. I am estimating that The Final Reckoning will somewhat capitalize on its finale status with a three-day near $60 million (edging predecessor Dead Reckoning) and north of $70 million counting Monday.
The Last Rodeo could place sixth while I have Friendship in 7th place. Either has the chance to over perform, but I doubt it considering the amount of competition.
As for holdovers, Final Destination Bloodlines got off to a terrific start (more on that below), but should experience the hefty decline that usually greets horror titles. Holdovers The New Avengers, Sinners, and Minecraft should see minimal declines as is custom over this particular holiday.
And with that, here’s my top 8 take and keep in mind that grosses for returning flicks are a Friday to Monday forecast:
1. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $196.6 million (Friday to Monday); $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday)
2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Monday); $64.4 million (Friday to Sunday)
3. Final Destination Bloodlines
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
4. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
5. The New Avengers
Predicted Gross: $14 million
6. The Last Rodeo
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (Friday to Monday); $6.4 million (Friday to Sunday)
7. Friendship
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (Friday to Monday); $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday)
8. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (May 16-18)
As mentioned, Final Destination Bloodlines logged a far better than anticipated gross with $51.6 million. That’s easily the best premiere in the 25-year-old franchise and should kickstart plenty more Destination‘s to come. It surpassed my $42.2 million prediction and represents another success story for WB behind A Minecraft Movie and Sinners.
The New Avengers/Thunderbolts* fell to second after two weeks on top with $16.6 million, a tad shy of my $18.1 million prediction. The MCU adventure sits at $155 million after three weeks.
Sinners was third with $15.2 million (I said $15.9 million) as it has now bitten off $240 million in its five weeks.
A Minecraft Movie was fourth with $5.9 million compared to my $5.2 million call as the mega blockbuster has made $416 million after seven weeks.
The Accountant 2 rounded out the top five with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.6 million number. The sequel’s total is $58 million in four weeks.
Finally, critically drubbed Hurry Up Tomorrow starring The Weeknd stumbled in sixth with $3.3 million and that’s under my $4.5 million projection.
Blogger’s Update (05/14): Two days before its premiere, I am doing a significant upgrade on Final Destinaition from $35.2 million to $44.2 million
Final Destination Bloodlines looks to inject some life into multiplexes with the franchise returning after 14 dormant years. We also have music superstar Abel Tesfaye (better known as The Weeknd) headlining the musical thriller Hurry Up Tomorrow. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
Bloodlines should be another winner for Warner Bros after the massive success of A Minecraft Movie and Sinners (the studio might account for 60 percent of the high 5 this weekend). I have the sixth entry in the series achieving the strongest start yet in the mid 30s.
As for Hurry Up Tomorrow (which also costars Jenna Ortega and Barry Keoghan), it’s tricky to figure how many of The Weeknd’s fans will turn out this week(e)nd. Buzz seems quiet and it could fall anywhere between fourth and sixth place.
The New Avengers (recently known as Thunderbolts*) should drop to the runner-up slot after two weeks on top. The MCU adventure may see a dip in the low to mid 40s. Sinners looks to place third while Minecraft and The Accountant 2 could duke it out for 4th (depending on where Tomorrow falls).
Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:
1. Final Destination Bloodlines
Predicted Gross: $42.2 million
2. The New Avengers
Predicted Gross: $18.1 million
3. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million
4. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
5. The Accountant 2
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
6. Hurry Up Tomorrow
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
Box Office Results (May 9-11)
The New Avengers had a rather typical MCU slide at 56% with $32.3 million in its second outing. That’s on pace with my $33.8 million call. The decline is a bit more than Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings with 54% but not as steep as the 62% that befell Eternals.
Sinners held firm in second with $22.1 million, a tad shy of my $24 million prediction. Ryan Coogler’s latest has bitten off $215 million after four weeks.
A Minecraft Movie was third with $7.6 million (I said $8.9 million) as the blockbuster stands at a mighty $408 million in its six weeks of play.
The Accountant 2 held better than I assumed in weekend #3 with $6.7 million compared to my $4.6 million estimate. Ben Affleck’s sequel is up to $51 million.
Finally, I didn’t do a projection for micro-budgeted slasher flick Clown in a Cornfield. Yet it managed to be fifth with $3.6 million on over 2000 screens.
Blogger’s Update (05/14): Two days before its premiere, I am doing an upgrade to my prediction from $35.2 million to $42.2 million
A quarter century after the original kicked off a fresh horror franchise, Final Destination Bloodlines logs into multiplexes on May 16th. The sixth Destination and first in nearly 14 years is co-directed by Zach Lipovsky and Adam Stein. Kaitlyn Santa Juana, Teo Briones, Richard Harmon, Owen Patrick Joyner, Anna Lore, Brec Bassinger, and the late Tony Todd make up the cast.
Warner Bros (hot off blockbusters A Minecraft Movie and Sinners) could have another success on their hands. Enough time has passed between entries that a nostalgia factor may be in play. It doesn’t hurt that competition is minimal as some heavier hitters are waiting until Memorial Day weekend and June.
The highest series opening belongs to 2009’s The Final Destination as that fourth entry started with $27 million. I believe Bloodlines should match or top that. My gut says take the over (UPDATE: way over)…
Final Destination Bloodlines opening weekend prediction: $42.2 million
The movie formerly known as Thunderbolts* looks to rule the box office once again with Sinners firmly in the runner-up position in this second May frame. That’s because there’s no new wide releases to challenge them and the top five should look similar to the month’s first weekend.
The MCU’s 36th entry Thunderbolts* (we’ll get to that asterisk) opened similarly to 2021 franchise titles Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75 million) and Eternals ($71 million). Shang dropped in the mid-50s in its sophomore outing while Eternals fell a steeper 62%. With solid word-of-mouth and scant competition, a low to mid 50s decline is where I see this ending up.
Sinners looks to continue its meager drops and should see mid-20s in its fourth go-round while A Minecraft Movie, The Accountant 2, and Until Dawn should all hold at 3-5.
Back to that asterisk. So… (spoiler alert?… but not really) Disney/Marvel revealed today that Thunderbolts* is actually titled The New Avengers and it is listed that way on official materials. This all makes sense after you’ve seen it. Therefore I will honor the studio’s wishes and call it that moving forward.
Here’s how I see the high 5 shaking out:
1. The New Avengers
Predicted Gross: $33.8 million
2. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $24 million
3. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
4. The Accountant 2
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. Until Dawn
Predicted Gross: $2.2 million
Box Office Results (May 2-4)
Thund…,errr, The New Avengers came in at the lower end of its anticipated range with $74.3 million, falling shy of my $79.3 million call. It’s not a bad result for the superhero tale, but it is several million short of what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February and nowhere near the earnings of previous sagas with the word Avengers in it.
Sinners hauled in another $33.1 million, in line with my $34 million forecast. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick has amassed $179 million in three weeks.
A Minecraft Movie was third with $13.7 million, slightly topping my $12.5 million projection. The Warner Bros smash is just under $400 million at $398 million after four weeks.
The Accountant 2 saw its numbers plummet 61% in weekend #2 with $9.4 million. That’s below my more generous $12.8 million prediction. The ten-day tally is $41 million.
Video game based horror pic Until Dawn rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.4 million) for $14 million in its two weeks.
On rare occasions, the need arises to update my Oscar prognosis on a particular picture if warranted. When I penned my post for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners on April 13th, I didn’t discount its awards potential. I wrote of its solid chances in down-the-line competitions including Ludwig Goransson’s lauded score and the sound and production design.
However, I also wrote this:
So could Sinners score above-the-line mentions? I think it’s possible, but I wouldn’t predict it at the moment. Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay could materialize depending on how competition shakes out in the months ahead.
I don’t need to wait until the months ahead to revise my remarks. Sinners has taken the box office by storm in addition to its critical acclaim. When my initial write-up was published nearly three weeks ago, the vampire drama stood at 100% on RT. It barely lost any steam with 98% at press time, a 97% audience score and 84 on Metacritic.
On the financial front, Coogler’s latest has taken in $123 million domestically after less than two weeks and it should reach $250 million or higher. Sinners has become part of the cultural zeitgeist and that’s a recipe for a strong showing this awards season.
So what’s the best case scenario for this? The ceiling has undeniably gotten higher. I now believe that Sinners will be nominated for Best Picture with Director and Original Screenplay as major possibilities. In addition to the aforementioned Score, Production Design, and Sound, there are other below the line categories where it could pop up. That includes the new Casting race, Original Song (where the track “I Lied to You” from cast member Miles Caton might stand the best shot), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. Regarding that new casting competition, I’m confident this will be in a sturdy position to vie for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards next year.
I didn’t discuss the actors involved in mid-April because I wasn’t seriously considering their inclusion. That has changed. Michael B. Jordan could factor into the Best Actor race. In Supporting Actress, it could be Hailee Steinfeld or Wunmi Mosaku (with the former probably having an edge to nab her second nod after 2010’s True Grit). For Supporting Actor, there’s Delroy Lindo, Caton, or Jack O’Connell. Some of this may come down to who Warner Bros mounts campaigns for. The narrative for Lindo might be tempting. Five years ago, he probably narrowly missed the cut for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods. He’s a well-respected veteran actor who’s never been nominated and the Academy could look to rectify that.
Back to that best case scenario. If all went perfectly, that would be 16 nominations and the record stands at 14 (shared by Titanic, All About Eve, and La La Land). Do I think that’ll happen? No. Would 12 or 13 nods surprise me? No.
Some prognosticators may think it’s too early to think anything has secured one of the ten BP slots. And there’s always the matter of a horror movie making the cut. Yet Get Out and The Substance brought the genre into the big dance in the past decade. As for the timeline, it was rather clear that Dune: Part Two was going to be a Warner Bros hopeful at this juncture in 2024 and that turned out to be accurate. Another counterargument is that WB will focus on Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Time will tell on that one, but there’s no reason the studio can’t have two contenders and I’m skeptical (based on the trailer) that Battle is a surefire play over Sinners.
Three weeks ago I wasn’t predicting Sinners for BP and beyond “at the moment”. That moment arrived quickly for me to reconsider. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The summer 2025 box office season gets underway with Marvel’s Thunderbolts*. The 36th franchise entry looks to make noise atop the charts and you peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
With solid early buzz, my high 70s projection gives it about $10 million less than what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February. The debut would put it in line with general expectations as it’ll hope to leg out impressively throughout May.
Sinners was #1 once again for a second frame following an astonishing hold (more on that below). The MCU competition should mean a heftier slide than the sophomore outing, but I still have it only easing around 25%. That would mean a third weekend north of $30 million.
Third place could be a close contest between holdovers The Accountant 2 and A Minecraft Movie. I have the former dropping close to 50% with Minecraft experiencing a mid 40s decline.
Fifth place should belong to Until Dawn with around a high 50s to 60% plummet (typical for the horror genre).
Here’s how I have that high five playing out:
1. Thunderbolts*
Predicted Gross: $79.3 million
2. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $34 million
3. The Accountant 2
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
4. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
5. Until Dawn
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (April 25-27)
Multiplexes were packed as four features topped $20 million in sales with Sinners shocking prognosticators with a mere 5% drop. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick with Michael B. Jordan sucked up another $45.7 million, blasting past my $33.1 million prediction. In ten days, the Oscar contender stands at $123 million with $300 million domestic potentially in its sights.
The rerelease of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith for its 20th anniversary landed one of the best reissue premieres of all time with $25.4 million in a surprise second That edges past my $22.6 million call. The third feature (and best reviewed) of the second trilogy returned to theaters for a one-week engagement (that’s why you don’t see it reflected in my projections for next weekend). A nostalgia factor clearly helped Sith as it almost tripled what The Phantom Menace‘s rerelease in February 2024 earned for its start. The $25 million in extra coin for Sith pushed the total domestic haul to $405 million over two decades.
The highest grossing truly new film was The Accountant 2 as the Ben Affleck action sequel was third with $24.5 million. I was right on target at $24.3 million, but I thought it would be #2. Its opening gross is right in line with the 2016 original.
A Minecraft Movie was fourth in weekend #4 with $22.7 million (I said $21.4 million) as the Warner Bros video game adaptation has collected $379 million.
New horror pic Until Dawn (also based on a video game) rounded out the top five with $8 million. The unimpressive figure is on pace with my $7.8 million forecast.
It’s likely to be a top heavy family friendly box office chart this weekend as DreamWorks Animation’s The Bad Guys makes a play for the #1 spot. The well-reviewed action comedy could find itself in a battle with the second weekend of Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (after a lackluster start) and the third frame of Sonic the Hedgehog 2. The adults have fresh product to choose from as well. There’s the Viking epic The Northman from director Robert Eggers and Nicolas Cage headlining the meta comedy The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. My detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies can be accessed here:
Considering Beasts easily had a Wizarding World franchise low opening (more on that below), even a mid teens start for The Bad Guys could mean it’ll manage to nab first place. If Sonic fell nearly 60% in its sophomore frame, I’m saying Beasts plummets in the mid 60s and it could be a close contest for second between the two holdovers.
The Northman and Talent should hold the four and spots and maybe not in that order. That’s how I have it, however, with Northman just surpassing double digits and Talent falling just under. Both features have solid critical support and could overperform, but I’m being cautious with each.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. The Bad Guys
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Predicted Gross: $15.5 million
3. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Predicted Gross: $15.1 million
4. The Northman
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
5. The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
Box Office Results (April 15-17)
It was an Easter to forget for Warner Bros as Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore remained a secret to many. The third entry in the series took in a lowly $42.1 million, below my $48.1 million projection. That’s about $20 million under 2018 predecessor The Crimes of Grindelwald and it genuinely brings into question whether the studio will move forward with planned fourth and fifth installments.
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 dropped to second with $29.3 million and a larger than anticipated 59% drop. I was more generous at $35.8 million. The video game based sequel is up to a nevertheless impressive $118 million after 10 days.
The Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum rom com The Lost City was third with $6.2 million, on target with my $6.3 million take. Total is $78 million.
Everything Everywhere All at Once increased its screen count by nearly 1000 venues and boasted a 2% increase in weekend #2 with $6.1 million (I said $5.5 million). The potential awards contender has made $17 million.
Mark Wahlberg’s faith-based and fact based drama Father Stu opened in fifth with a muted $5.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $7.7 million since its Wednesday debut. That’s on pace with my respective takes of $5.7 million and $8.5 million.
Morbius was sixth with $4.7 million, a tad ahead of my $4.3 million prediction for $65 million overall.
Jake Gyllenhaal’s Ambulance continued to stall with $4 million (I went with $4.5 million) for a two-week tally of only $15 million.
**Blogger’s Note (04/13): Updated to include Everything Everywhere All at Once in the top five after finding out it is expanding to approximately 2000 screens from its current 1250
Warner Bros is hoping for good returns from a potentially fading franchise as Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore debuts this Easter weekend. We also have the Mark Wahlberg led faith-based drama Father Stu as it hopes to capitalize on the holiday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
I have Dumbledore conjuring up about $15 million less than 2018 predecessor The Crimes of Grindelwald. The gross just north of $50 million should be enough to nab it the #1 slot with Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (after a terrific start) sliding to second. The video game adapted sequel may lose around half its audience.
Father Stu is a bit of a head scratcher. It could over perform. With a Wednesday premiere, my mid single digits Friday to Sunday estimate puts it in fourth just behind The Lost City.
Ambulance and Morbius, both struggling, might battle it out for the five spot. And with that, my take on the top 7:
1. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Predicted Gross: $48.1 million
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Predicted Gross: $35.8 million
3. The Lost City
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
4. Father Stu
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $8.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
6. Ambulance
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
7. Morbius
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (April 8-10)
Paramount had plenty to celebrate as Sonic the Hedgehog 2 posted the high score with a better than anticipated $72.1 million. That’s nearly $10 million ahead of my $62.5 million prediction. You can bet a third installment is already being planned as this grossed more from Friday to Sunday than the 2020 original took in during the long President’s Day weekend.
Morbius was second with a steep 74% tumble in its sophomore outing with $10.2 million, a bit shy of my $11.2 million projection. The vampire tale is not bringing in new blood after a weak beginning.
The Lost City was third with $9 million (I said $8 million) and the Sandra Bullock comedy stands at $68 million with $100 million in its sights.
Jake Gyllenhaal’s action flick Ambulance stalled in fourth with only $8.6 million, well below my generous $13.7 million estimate. The Michael Bay directed enterprise (which earned decent reviews) couldn’t find a crowd as moviegoers may simply wait until streaming.
The Batman made $6.4 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The grand tally is $358 million.
Finally, the critically heralded Everything Everywhere All at Once was sixth with $6 million. While not reaching my guesstimate of $8.4 million, the trippy sci-fi pic had the second best per theater average on its 1200+ screens.
J.K. Rowling’s Wizarding World returns on April 15th with Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, the third entry in a franchise that hasn’t spellbound audiences in the same way that Harry Potter did. David Yates, who made the last four Potter pics and previous two Beasts offerings, is back in the director’s chair. Familiar cast members are led by Eddie Redmayne alongside Jude Law (as the title character), Ezra Miller (in what may be his last appearance in the series due to offscreen controversies), Dan Fogler, Alison Sudol, Callum Turner, Jessica Williams, and Katherine Waterston. Speaking of offscreen controversies, Johnny Depp is no longer the villainous Grindelwald as Mads Mikkelsen now fills the role.
COVID and Depp’s recasting kept Secrets from its intended November 2021 debut. With an Easter premiere, Warner Bros is hoping this at least stays on par with predecessor The Crimes of Grindelwald. In 2016, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them took in $74 million for its start with $234 million overall domestically. 2018 follow-up Grindelwald couldn’t match that as it conjured up a Wizarding World opening nadir of $62 million and $159 million total.
Reviews for Secrets are better than those of Grindelwald (60% vs. 36% on Rotten Tomatoes). I’m not sure that will matter all that much. I’m just not sensing the enthusiasm and the three and a half year wait shouldn’t help. This might earn about $15 million less than Crimes to set another low mark.
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore opening weekend prediction: $48.1 million
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