Tag: Violent Night

January 6-8 Box Office Predictions

The first full weekend of the new year sees deranged doll M3GAN dancing into multiplexes as she hopes to have a strong #2 showing behind Avatar: The Way of Water. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on 2023’s initial wide release right here:

M3GAN Box Office Prediction

I believe M3GAN will perform similarly to last fall’s Smile and a low to mid 20s premiere would cause Universal and Blumhouse to do just that. The trailers have generated lots of attention and the overall marketing campaign (like Smile) has been impressive. There’s a chance it could over perform my estimate, but I don’t see it threatening Avatar.

That’s because the James Cameron sequel achieved the third largest third domestic weekend of all time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and the first Avatar. A fourth frame drop in the mid to higher 40s range should net it a mid 30s showing. Like M3GAN, I wouldn’t be shocked it goes higher.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish should easily be third after an encouraging sophomore outing with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I think it’ll look:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $38.3 million

2. M3GAN

Predicted Gross: $24.8 million

3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

5. Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Predicted Gross: $2.1 million

Box Office Results (December 30-January 1)

2022 closed out and 2023 kicked off with Avatar: The Way of Water dominating the charts with $67.4 million. That’s right in line with my $65.8 million forecast. This third weekend was an important one for the long-in-development follow-up as it’s amassed $425 million stateside coupled with its gigantic worldwide earnings ($1.4 billion).

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish rose 35% from its debut at $16.8 million – in range with my $16.1 million prediction. The DreamWorks animated sequel hit $61 million as nine figures looks doable.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ascended to third with $5.1 million, a touch above my $4.5 million take. Overall haul is $438 million.

Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody felt the heat of a disappointing second frame in fourth. Dropping 16% with $3.9 million, I wrongly thought it might go up at $5.6 million. The meager ten-day tally is $14 million.

Babylon, after a disastrous start, continued the free fall with $2.6 million in fifth (I said $3.2 million). It’s made $10 million with a reported $80 million price tag.

Violent Night was sixth with $2.1 million. I was more optimistic at $3.1 million. The R rated holiday tale has scored a solid $40 million.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

December 30-January 1 Box Office Predictions

Hollywood is hoping that the closeout to 2022 looks better than Christmas weekend. There’s a solid chance that it will. While no new wide releases are on deck, holdovers could see their earnings increase from the prior holiday.

In previous years when Christmas Eve was on Saturday, that meant the typical biggest day of the weekend isn’t as potent (look up 2005, 2011, 2016). Moviegoers treat weekdays similar to Fridays and Saturdays during the end of the year with many on vacation and schools on break. For 2022, you can add a unique wrinkle with this past weekend. Many areas of the country (including where this blogger was) were experiencing winter storm conditions and bitter cold that prevented a night out. The forecast is rosier as we ring in the new year.

The years I mentioned saw most of their returnees see percentage gains. Avatar: The Way of Water will obviously make it a three-peat and I’m envisioning a slight uptick.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish seems destined for the heftiest lift in the 25-30 percent region. Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody should remain in third and I could see a 15-20% increase considering its A Cinemascore grade.

Babylon, after a dismal start and a C+ Cinemascore, may be an exception as it could diminish slightly. So could Violent Night considering the Yuletide theme. That might mean Black Panther: Wakanda Forever goes from 6th to 4th.

Here’s how I see that top 6 panning out:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $65.8 million

2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

3. Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

5. Babylon

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

6. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

Box Office Results (December 23-25)

Due to the reasons listed above, it wasn’t the merriest of Christmases for multiplexes. Nearly all titles couldn’t match my projections. In its sophomore frame, Avatar: The Way of Water took in $63.3 million from Friday to Sunday for an easy 1st place. I was $10 million higher at $73.4 million. The ten-day haul is $261 million. James Cameron’s long in development sequel is poised to hit a billion worldwide tonight and that third week gross should be impressive.

DreamWorks Animation had a far from purr-fect start in second (I’m sorry) for their long in development follow-up Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. It managed $12.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $18.5 million since its Wednesday premiere. I went with $18.3 million and $28.5 million, respectively. Luckily this could have a second life (maybe even nine) with little competition for its intended audience.

Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody couldn’t find its groove with a flat $4.7 million opening in third. I was much more optimistic with $11.5 million. Despite mostly negative reviews, the crowds that did turn up liked what they saw and this should get a decent bump.

Damien Chazelle’s Babylon was a pricey dud. With a reported $80 million price tag, the three hour hard R rated tale of early Hollywood fizzled with only $3.6 million in fourth. I predicted $8.7 million. As mentioned, the only bumps I expect this to experience are the ones the characters are doing.

Violent Night rounded out the top five with $3.5 million (I said $3.3 million). Overall take is $41 million. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was sixth with $3.4 million, on pace with my $3.2 million forecast for $426 million total.

And that does it for now, folks. Happy New Year!

Violent Night Review

Nearly everyone is a member of the Naughty List in Tommy Wirkola’s Violent Night and that includes Santa Claus (David Harbour) for a stretch. We meet a more tipsy than jolly St. Nick on Christmas Eve at an English pub. He’s lamenting kids these days on a short break from chimney diving.

By the time he makes it over to Connecticut, he stumbles into a home invasion of the über rich Lightstone family. That includes matriarch Gertrude (Beverly D’Angelo), wine swigging daughter Alva (Edi Patterson) and her wannabe action star beau (Cam Gigandet) and constantly v-logging son (Alexander Elliot). The Christmas vacation turned hostage situation is joined by “#1 son” Jason (Alex Hassell), estranged wife Linda (Alexis Louder), and adorable daughter Trudy (Leah Brady). Named after her ruthless grandmother, she doesn’t yet share the traits of her haughty elders.

While she believes in Santa, Trudy cannot imagine the vicious ex-warrior that he turns out to be until they team up. The bad guys are led by John Leguizamo. He goes by Mr. Scrooge and all his henchmen are given seasonal aliases like Frosty and Candy Cane. Krampus (Brendan Fletcher) is the most sadistic and the funniest. They’re searching for a massive gift: $300 million said to be on premise. When Santa is stranded by his reindeer, he becomes the evening’s John McClane. He says ho-ho-ho, there are machine guns, and we have plenty of makeshift weapons that inflict maximum pain. Trudy is kind of a mini Al Powell to keep the Die Hard references up. She communicates with our very real icon via walkie talkie in what no doubt is a Christmas movie stuffed with carnage.

Violent Night shouldn’t end up on any best of or worst of lists. Harbour lends demented spirit to Mr. Kringle, but the script dampens the overall experience. There’s a brutally humorous twist on Home Alone style pranks in one sequence. A lot of the mayhem unfortunately has a repetitive feel. A tightened runtime of 90 minutes would be a bonus. It clocks in at 112 minutes. You will believe this could’ve been superior though this anus kicking Santa occasionally delivers.

**1/2 (out of four)

December 23-25 Box Office Predictions

After a domestic debut that unquestionably fell on the lower end of expectations, Avatar: The Way of Water hopes for a strong sophomore outing and smoother sailing throughout the season. It will remain in first while three newcomers should populate the 2-4 slots.

They are DreamWorks Animation’s sequel Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, musical biopic Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody, and Damien Chazelle’s once upon a time in Hollywood dramedy Babylon with Margot Robbie and Brad Pitt. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Box Office Prediction
Babylon Box Office Prediction
Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody Box Office Prediction

The box office range of Yuletide releases can be tied to how the dates work out on the calendar. Christmas Eve is Saturday and it can be limited as potential moviegoers are preparing the big day. On the other hand, Christmas itself can be potent. Bottom line: it’s important to remember that weekdays at this time of year can be just as booming as weekends as people are taking time off.

Boots gets a jump on Wednesday while Babylon and Somebody drop Friday. Sporting impressive reviews, Puss is poised to be the runner-up to Water. The three-day might fall in the high teens to low 20s range with close to $30 million for the five-day.

Third place is going to one of the other openers. I’m forecasting that a solid African-American and female turnout could give the Whitney flick the edge. I expect Somebody to double digits while Babylon falls just under. The five spot should be close between holdovers Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Violent Night.

Now we return to Avatar. There’s more chatter below on the lesser than anticipated start. Yet it’s also fair to say that future weekends will ultimately determine whether it’s a success or not. The A Cinemascore grade (same as part 1) should help. I’ll say a mid to high 40s decline happens over Christmas while the leveling off might be far less pronounced in the 3rd frame and beyond.

Here’s how I’m seeing the top 6 playing out:

1 . Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $73.4 million

2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $28.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Predicted Gross: $11.5 million

4. Babylon

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (December 16-18)

The general consensus was that Avatar: The Way of Water, the long awaited sequel to James Cameron’s largest worldwide earner in history, would amass a stateside start of around $175 million. I projected $173.1 million. That didn’t happen. Water made $134.1 million and that’s the fifth highest debut of 2022 (a hair ahead of The Batman). As mentioned, success will not be judged here it if manages to develop sturdy legs in the next several weeks (as the filmmaker’s predecessors Titanic and Avatar certainly did). For now the jury is out while the expected mark wasn’t achieved domestically out of the gate. On a global basis – it brought in another $300 million. The $435 million tally is second only to May’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.

Unsurprisingly nothing else wanted to open opposite Avatar as the rest of the chart was stuffed with holdovers. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, after five weeks on top, was second with $5.3 million. On pace with my $5.5 million call, the six-week total is $418 million.

Violent Night was right behind in third with $5 million, on target with my $4.9 million projection. The three-week gross is $35 million.

Disney dud Strange World was fourth with $2.2 million, a smidge below my $2.6 million take for a dull $33 million overall.

The Menu completed the top five at $1.6 million (I said $1.9 million) for $32 million it its coffers.

And that does it for now, folks! Happy Holidays!

December 16-18 Box Office Predictions

Theaters owners are counting on Avatar: The Way of Water to save them from drowning in red ink following the second lowest box office frame of 2022. James Cameron’s long in the making sequel is the only new release out and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Avatar: The Way of Water Box Office Prediction

With Oscar buzz (like the 2009 original) and solid reviews, Water could potentially surface with the largest premiere of the year. To do so, it would need to surpass the $187 million that Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness achieved in May. Considering the runtime of over three hours, it may fall a bit short of that. My projection has it behind Multiverse and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever for the third heftiest ’22 haul and the 18th highest debut of all time.

Speaking of Wakanda, it will finally fall to second after five weeks atop the charts. Fellow holdovers Violent Night, Strange World, and The Menu should all slide a spot as well. All of these returnees experienced small declines this weekend, but may dip a tad more due to Avatar overtaking multiplexes.

Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $173.1 million

2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

3. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. Strange World

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

5. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $1.9 million

Box Office Results (December 9-11)

As mentioned, it was a sluggish time in theaters as Avatar is on deck to make a splash. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever made it a handful of weekends in first place with $11.2 million. That’s on pace with my $10.6 million prediction as the MCU sequel is up to $409 million.

Violent Night remained in second with a sturdy 35% drop at $8.7 million, in line with my $8.5 million take. The Yuletide shoot-em-up has grossed $26 million in ten days.

Disney’s flop Strange World was third with $3.7 million compared to my $3.1 million estimate. Overall tally is just $30 million.

The Menu was fourth with $2.7 million (I said $2.8 million) for $29 million total.

Devotion rounded out the top five with $2 million. I went with $1.7 million and the aviation drama is at $17 million.

Finally, there was a bit of good news in a bad weekend. A24’s The Whale, in which Brendan Fraser is expected to vie for the Best Actor Oscar, achieved 2022’s best per screen performance. In only six venues, it earned approximately $360k. That $60k average tops Everything Everywhere All at Once, which previously had the year’s strongest average at $50k. It expands across wider on December 21st.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

December 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Audiences weren’t digging the leftovers in the first frame of December and it’ll get even worse this weekend. The top 5 could look awfully familiar with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever on top for a fifth time before Avatar: The Way of Water looks to liven up multiplexes beginning December 16th.

There are only two semi-wide newcomers to speak of and I didn’t do individual prediction posts on either. Father Stu: Reborn is a recut version of this spring’s true life drama with Mark Wahlberg and Mel Gibson. It earned a not so heavenly but not terrible $20 million a few months back. This version is PG-13 and not R. I don’t believe it’ll clear $1 million and that puts it outside the top five.

Spoiler Alert, another true life drama and this one featuring Jim Parsons, expands to approximately 600 venues after opening in six theaters this past weekend. It might be lucky to hit a million and that would leave it outside the top five too.

There’s a small chance that Violent Night, the Santa shoot-em-up with David Harbour, could elevate to 1st place after a decent debut (more on that below). However, Black Panther : Wakanda Forever should manage to make it five in a row before James Cameron’s sequel hits.

Meanwhile the battle for third could be close between the third weekend of Disney dud Strange World and the fourth helping of The Menu.

Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

2. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

3. Strange World

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

4. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $2.8 million

5. Devotion

Predicted Gross: $1.7 million

Box Office Results (December 2-4)

MCU sequel Black Panther: Wakanda Forever made it four in a row with $17.5 million. That’s under my projection of $21.3 million as the 62% fall was rather steep considering the lack of competition. The total did rise to $393 million.

Violent Night dropped at the higher end of its range with $13.4 million, outpacing my $9.4 million take. The grisly Yuletide tale could manage to play well over the coming holidays.

Strange World continued the embarrassing returns for the Mouse Factory with only $5 million in its sophomore weekend. I was close with $5.2 million. That’s a mere $25 million in its first 12 days.

The Menu was fourth with $3.4 million (I said $3.1 million) as it’s made $24 million thus far.

Devotion had a turbulent 54% plummet in weekend #2 with $2.7 million. I estimated a bit more at $3.3 million. Overall gross is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 2-4 Box Office Predictions

After a historically weak Thanksgiving frame that left moviegoers hungry for other options, the first weekend of December should be rather quiet at multiplexes as well. The lone wide release is Violent Night with David Harbour as a gun toting Santa. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Violent Night Box Office Prediction

Night, even though I have it falling under $10 million, should slide into the runner-up position behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. The MCU sequel looks to four-peat and should have no trouble doing so. A low to mid 50s drop would put it over $20 million. It’s likely to be #1 for five weekends until Avatar: The Way of Water arrives on December 16th.

After a disastrous opening (more on that below), Strange World should fall to third. With a weak B Cinemascore grade, the Disney animated flop could experience a plummet in the mid to high 50s. Who knows? Maybe even higher.

The four and five spots could be close between the second and third frames of Devotion and The Menu. Both should see dips in the mid 40s.

Here’s how I see the top 5 looking:

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

2. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

3. Strange World

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

4. Devotion

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

5. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

Box Office Results (Thanksgiving Weekend)

The Turkey Day holiday didn’t bring in the masses as the weekend fell under $100 million. That’s despite plenty of new releases for crowds to chew on.

Strangely enough, the biggest winner belonged to a streamer. Netflix doesn’t officially report numbers. They put Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, the acclaimed sequel to 2019’s blockbuster, on just under 700 screens. Word is out that it did approximately $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $13.3 million since the Wednesday start. That per theater average of over $13k is easily the best of the bunch. Onion is scheduled to leave its venues tomorrow before it hits Netflix on December 23rd.

Now back to the movies that do report official tallies. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever easily stayed atop the charts with $45.5 million, besting my $37.9 million prediction in weekend #3. The 17-day total is $367 million.

The story of the holiday was the dismal Strange World performance. The Mouse Factory had a disappointing result over the summer with Lightyear. This made it look like a phenomenon. World took in an embarrassing $12.1 million from Friday to Sunday and $18.8 million in the five-day. I said it would manage $19.3 million and $26.7 million, respectively. Simply put, Disney animated efforts aren’t supposed to do those anemic figures.

I suppose technically Glass Onion was third, so the war saga Devotion was fourth. Despite mostly decent reviews, it was a flop considering the reported $90 million budget. The Friday to Sunday take was $5.9 million with $9 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. I went higher with $7.2 million and $10.7 million.

The Menu rounded out the top five at $5.4 million (I said $6.4 million) to bring the two-week gross to $18 million.

Black Adam was sixth with $3.2 million, on target with my $3.3 million prediction. Total is $162 million.

Steven Spielberg’s awards hopeful The Fabelmans was on 638 screens and was seventh with $2.2 million ($3.1 million for the five-day). That’s under my guesstimates of $2.8 million and $4.1 million. While that’s easily the second best average of the newbies (after Onion), it’s still not too impressive. It will hope to develop legs during awards season.

The cannibalistic romance Bones and All wasn’t a recipe for success with an 8th place showing. The $2.2 million and $3.6 million three and five day earnings couldn’t match my $3.5 and $5.3 million projections.

Ticket to Paradise was ninth with $1.8 million (I went with $2.3 million) as the rom com is up to $65 million.

Fathom Event The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 was 10th as it dove 81% to $1.5 million. I was more giving at $2.4 million. In ten days, it’s made $13 million.

Finally, She Said was 11th after its poor premiere last weekend. With $1.1 million (I said $1.6 million), it’s at a lowly $4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Violent Night Box Office Prediction

If Mel Gibson in 2020’s Fatman didn’t satiate your desire to see Kris Kringle toting semiautomatic weapons, we’ve got Violent Night sliding into theaters on December 2nd. David Harbour of Stranger Things fame is Santa in the satiric action pic from director Tommy Wirkola. Supporting players include John Leguizamo (currently appearing in The Menu), Cam Gigandet, Alex Hassell, Alexis Louder, and Beverly D’Angelo (already a holiday silver screen staple thanks to Christmas Vacation).

Universal is hoping audiences want a little comedic savagery in their Yuletide viewing plans. Harbour hasn’t had a big screen breakout. In fact, it’s quite the opposite as 2019’s Hellboy was a dud (he did turn up in last year’s MCU blockbuster Black Widow).

The best case scenario would be a premiere approaching 2015’s Krampus, which rolled out on the same December weekend. It made just over $16 million and eventually topped out at $42 million domestically. I don’t anticipate that kind of showing for Violent Night. There’s a chance it won’t even reach double digits. I’ll put it a hair under.

Violent Night opening weekend prediction: $9.4 million