Underwater Box Office Prediction

Kristen Stewart headlines the sci-fi aquatic horror flick Underwater next weekend and the actress could be in for her second big budget flop in as many months. Directed by William Eubank, the supporting cast includes Vincent Cassel, Jessica Henwick, John Gallagher, Jr., Mamoudou Athie, and T.J. Miller.

Shot in 2017, the Fox release sports a reported $80 million price tag to go with its January dumping ground release date. It seems to be generating very little buzz at all. Stewart starred in the Charlie’s Angels reboot that absolutely tanked in November. Angels started off on over 3400 screens and grossed an atrocious $8.6 million for its opening frame.

My feeling is that this won’t even hit those numbers. Underwater is slated to hit around 3000 theaters and it’s hard to imagine that wide of a release not making at least $5 million. This may test that theory, but I’ll put it just over that.

Underwater opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million

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Jason Bourne Box Office Prediction

Matt Damon and director Paul Greengrass return to their blockbuster franchise after nearly a decade when Jason Bourne hits theaters next weekend. Originating from the novels by Robert Ludlum, this sequel may succeed in not being a box office letdown as a number of others have this season. Alicia Vikander, Tommy Lee Jones, Julia Stiles, Vincent Cassel, and Riz Ahmed are among the costars.

Let’s take a trip down Bourne franchise history lane, shall we? In 2002, The Bourne Identity became a summer sleeper hit with a $27 million debut and $121 million overall domestic gross. The numbers increased with the 2004 follow-up The Bourne Supremacy (when Greengrass took over directorial duties). It had a $52 million premiere and $176 million eventual tally. In 2007, third entry The Bourne Ultimatum hit the high marks with a $69 million opening and $227 million take.

It was after Ultimatum that Damon and Greengrass departed the critically acclaimed and audience approved pics. 2012 brought The Bourne Legacy, which cast Jeremy Renner as a new operative. While it scored a respectable $38 million debut, its $113 million domestic haul was a franchise low.

Four years later – the team behind the two most successful Bourne‘s return and my hunch is that moviegoers will be ready for it. This is quite simply a well-regarded series and it doesn’t hurt that Mr. Damon is coming off an Oscar nominated turn and mega-hit with The Martian. The question to me is whether or not this manages to top the opening of Ultimatum. It might and it wouldn’t surprise me, but my projection has it falling just short of that $69M number for a movie in which sequelitis should not apply.

Jason Bourne opening weekend prediction: $67.6 million

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