Tag: Venice Film Festival

Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actress Race (September 14th)

My closer looks at six of the major Oscar categories turns to Best Actress. If you missed my posts covering the other three acting derbies, you can access them right here:

Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actor Race (September 12th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (September 10th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have made a couple of things clearer, as they usually do. While reviews for her were solid, I think Kate Winslet in Lee is now a long shot for inclusion in the final five. On the other hand, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in Origin is more of a possibility than I would’ve originally thought. I do, however, think the film will need to make its mark elsewhere and I’m a little skeptical at the moment.

In Venice, the Best Actress prize went to Cailee Spaeny as Priscilla and that certainly helps her stock. I’m not prepared to put her into the final quintet. The soft frontrunner is probably Emma Stone in the rapturously received Poor Things. It could put her in line to take this race seven years after her victory in La La Land. She skyrockets to fifth to first.

Other strong hopefuls are Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall, Carey Mulligan in Maestro, Natalie Portman in May December, and Greta Lee for Past Lives. Annette Bening could find herself in the mix as Nyad. An “overdue for a win” narrative could give her statue, but I could also see her being left out completely.

Then there’s Margot Robbie who is, of course, headlining 2023’s largest hit with Barbie. Some might say there’s no way she gets left out. I would remind people about Tom Cruise’s non-nomination for Top Gun: Maverick. Yet she could absolutely end up making the cut.

I’ve included Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) in the quintet since I began predicting months ago. Her work is the only one mentioned here still unseen. She clings to the five spot for now.

As with the other acting races, I’m winnowing the field from 15 possibilities to 10 and here’s how I see it right now:

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (+4)

2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 2) (-3)

4. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin (PR: 12) (+2)

Dropped Out:

Kate Winslet, Lee

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Regina King, Shirley

Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Saoirse Ronan, Foe

Best Director is up next!

Oscar Predictions: Memory

No, I’m not rethinking my 2022 decision to forego an Oscar Predictions post on the Liam Neeson action flick Memory. This is the write-up for the same monikered Michel Franco drama that premiered at the Venice Film Festival. The somber drama is led by Jessica Chastain (2021’s Actress winner for The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Peter Sarsgard with a supporting cast including Merritt Wever, Jessica Harper, Elsie Fisher, and Josh Charles.

The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 88% with critics particularly complimenting the performances of the two leads. The Italian fest jury took notice as Sarsgard received the Best Actor award.

Assuming this makes the domestic release calendar by year’s end (release date is still TBD), its distributor MUBI has their work cut for them to break Chastain and Sarsgard into the lead conversations. Some critics prize attention could help and I’m taking a wait and see attitude with Memory‘s prospects. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

Beginning today, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards slated for March 2024. Ardent readers of this here blog know that I typically update my predictions every 10-14 days.

Yet there’s been some major developments in the past week and there will be more in the week or so to come. The Telluride Film Festival just happened. Venice is ongoing and Toronto starts tonight. In other words, a whole bunch of Oscar hopefuls have just screened or are about to screen.

So for these closer looks at the four acting derbies, Best Director, and Best Picture – I’m obviously keeping all that in mind with the heavy buzz emanating from Colorado, Italy, and Ontario.

We begin with Supporting Actor. In this competition, 3 of the biggest contenders saw their movies released (or screen) prior to the September trio of festivals. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) are, of course, part of the Barbenheimer phenomenon. Both appear highly likely to be nominated. I could see a narrative develop where Downey Jr. is honored for his body of work (in addition to his strong work in the film itself) and ends up taking the trophy. This would mark his third nom after 1992’s Chaplin and 2008’s Tropic Thunder. He’s currently my #1.

A similar victory could happen with Robert De Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon (which first screened at Cannes in May). The acting legend is a two-time Oscar winner, but it’s been 43 years since he took the lead prize for Raging Bull. You have go back to 49 years for his first statue in Supporting for The Godfather Part II. A Downey Jr. or De Niro statue could be contingent on which of their movies wins BP (if one of them does). The momentum from the top prize could dwindle down to either one of them.

Before its rapturous unveiling at Venice, there was uncertainty as to whether Mark Ruffalo or Willem Dafoe would be Fox Searchlight’s strongest contender for Poor Things. The answer might be both. Ruffalo could have the slight edge, but both could make the dance. That wouldn’t be all that surprising. Three of the past four Supporting Actor quintets have seen double nominees from the same feature – The Irishman in 2019 for Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, The Power of the Dog in 2021 for Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee, and last year for The Banshees of Inisherin with Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. It’s worth mentioning that none of the six nominees took the prize.

Speaking of double nominees, it isn’t out of the question that the aforementioned Plemons could materialize for Flower Moon. Same goes for Matt Damon in Oppenheimer. I suspect they ultimately don’t make it.

Past Lives is an acclaimed drama that seems destined for a BP spot. John Magaro is sure to be placed here and he could absolutely get into the final five. There is a question as to whether his costar Teo Yoo is campaigned for in lead or here. I’ve got him in the former as of now.

If Air overperforms, I wouldn’t totally discount Ben Affleck (he’s never had an acting mention). Glenn Howerton in BlackBerry has drawn plenty of raves. He’ll win some critics prizes and could be a trendy pick for inclusion. Charles Melton was singled out for his work alongside Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore at Cannes.

Dominic Sessa could see himself in for The Holdovers (especially if Alexander Payne dramedy’s cast mates Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph make their categories).

The Maestro acting campaigns should go to Carey Mulligan and Bradley Cooper in lead and not Matt Bomer. Saltburn reactions suggest any attention will go to star Barry Keoghan and not Richard E. Grant.

And there are unseen hopefuls in the wings. Colman Domingo in The Color Purple immediately comes to mind. His nom might not happen because he’s almost surely going to make the lead Actor’s five with Rustin.

So where’s that leave us? I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10 and here’s my snapshot of the race right now!

Predicted Nominees

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Ben Affleck, Air

Matt Bomer, Maestro

Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

Richard E. Grant, Saltburn

Glynn Turman, Rustin

Supporting Actress is up next!

Oscar Predictions: Origin

Nearly a decade after Selma was nominated for Best Picture and seven years after 13th was up for Documentary Feature, Ana DuVernay could be back in the awards conversation with Origin. Adapted from Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents, the 2020 nonfiction novel covering various racial issues, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (2021’s Supporting Actress nominee for King Richard) plays the book’s author Isabel Wilkerson. Costars include Jon Bernthal, Vera Farmiga, Audra McDonald, Niecy Nash-Betts, Nick Offerman, Jasmine Cephas Jones, Connie Nielsen, and Finn Wittrock.

At the Venice Film Festival, Origin received an appreciable reception. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 85%. The Neon release (scheduled for sometime late this year) could still struggle to break into the Oscar consciousness. Some of the reviews (while generally positive) have enough reservations that this may not be much of a player at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Hit Man

Glen Powell got a whole lotta exposure last year with his memorable supporting turn in Top Gun: Maverick. It sounds like he’s got a heckuva starring vehicle via Hit Man, Richard Linklater’s latest that premiered at Venice. The action comedy is cowritten by the director and his star. The buzz out of Italy is strong and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.

Linklater is a three-time screenwriting Oscar nominee for 2004’s Before Sunset and 2013’s Before Midnight (in Adapted) and 2014’s Boyhood (in Original). Hit Man is based on a magazine article. Despite the kudos for Powell’s performance (Best Actor is just too crowded already), it’s Adapted Screenplay where this stands a shot at recognition for the two scribes.

Assuming this is slotted in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, I wouldn’t discount this nabbing a Best Picture and Actor nomination from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Priscilla

One year after Elvis landed 8 Oscar nominations (but no wins), your mind might be suspicious that this year’s Priscilla could also attract awards voters. Based on reaction from its Venice, you might be wrong. Sofia Coppola’s biopic casts Cailee Spaeny as The King’s young bride with Jacob Elordi as the legendary entertainer. The A24 release hits theaters on October 27th.

With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 95%, Priscilla enters what it clearly already a crowded BP and Actress race. The film and Spaeny are certainly not guaranteed to make the cuts (especially the former). Elordi could contend, but Supporting Actor inclusion might be a reach. Based on a 1985 memoir cowritten by the title subject, Coppola’s adapted screenplay could also struggle in a bustling field. Unlike her Lost in Translation from 20 years ago, don’t count on her making the director or writing races.

I suspect A24 will need to mount expert campaigns for anything beyond Spaeney in Actress and she’s already competing with the likes of Emma Stone (Poor Things), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Annette Bening (Nyad) to name a few. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Killer

David Fincher’s last five films have received at least one Oscar nomination with three (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Social Network, Mank) up for Best Picture. His latest is The Killer with a Venice premiere this weekend, limited theatrical release October 27th, and Netflix stream beginning on November 10th. The action thriller stars Michael Fassbender in the title role with a supporting cast including Arliss Howard, Charles Parnell, Kerry O’Malley, Sala Baker, Sophie Charlotte, and Tilda Swinton.

The reviews indicate this is right up Fincher’s alley as a cold tale of an assassin that is unquestionably pristinely made. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 88%. The reaction also hints that this will not be the awards player in the big categories that his last batch were. That quintet of previously nominated pics all nabbed acting nominations. Despite praise for Fassbender’s lead work, Best Actor already looks too crowded for his inclusion. It also sounds like Swinton in Supporting Actress is a non-starter.

Per usual with Fincher’s work, tech nods could come in Film Editing (that’s where Dragon Tattoo won), Cinematography (where Mank was victorious), and Score (where Social Network reigned supreme). There’s also the chance it’s the filmmaker’s first not nominated movie since 2007’s Zodiac. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Maestro

Five years ago, Bradley Cooper made his directorial debut with A Star Is Born and it received 8 Oscar nominations with its sole win coming for “Shallow” in Original Song. At the Venice Film Festival, his follow-up Maestro has bowed prior to its November 22nd limited theatrical output and December 20th Netflix premiere. It recounts the relationship between famed conductor Leonardo Bernstein (Cooper) and activist Felicia Montealegre (Carey Mulligan). Costars include Matt Bomer, Maya Hawke, Sarah Silverman, and Michael Urie.

The vast majority are singing Maestro‘s praises and it is at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, some of the positive reactions reveal drawbacks like a protracted third act. Cooper’s second behind the camera feature is expected to garner awards attention. The Venice reaction is enough for me to think Picture is likely as well as Cooper and Mulligan for their lead work. It’s also a contender in down the line competitions like Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound, Production Design, and (especially) Makeup and Hairstyling.

However, Maestro could experience some of the same omissions that A Star Is Born had. Cooper wasn’t nominated for Best Director five years ago and he could miss here. Star also didn’t get in for Adapted Screenplay. I don’t think it’s automatic that this one makes the cut for Original Screenplay (from Cooper and Josh Singer). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Promised Land

A decade after his 2012 pic A Royal Affair received a Foreign Language Film nomination at the Oscars, director Nikolaj Arcel’s latest The Promised Land hopes to do the same. The 18th century set epic is a co-production between Denmark, Sweden, and Germany. It’s worth noting that Denmark submitted Affair for consideration. Mads Mikkelsen stars.

Land premiered at the Venice Film Festival and early reviews are of the mixed variety with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. The film will move to Toronto for more exposure next week. However, initial reaction indicates it could face tricky odds to break into International Feature Film. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Poor Things

Upon its screening at the Venice Film Festival, the awards possibilities are rich for Poor Things. Based on the 1992 Alasdair Gray novel, it marks Yorgos Lanthimos’s follow-up to The Favourite from 2018. That pic garnered 10 Oscar nominations and one (surprise) win for Olivia Colman in Best Actress. This one could contend in several of the same races.

The word brilliant has popped up in more than one evaluation thus far as Things sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Emma Stone (2016’s Best Actress winner for La La Land) is drawing raves and her inclusion in Actress seems assured. This would mark her fourth nod after Birdman (supporting), La La Land, and Supporting Actress in The Favourite. She could be a threat to take her second gold statue. Just as Stone and Rachel Weisz competed against each other for The Favourite, there are two Supporting Actor hopefuls here with Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo. Prior to screenings, I assumed Dafoe might have the edge. However, it seems Ruffalo has just as strong a chance. It would mark Dafoe’s fifth nom and Ruffalo’s fourth. Neither has won.

Things also appears poised for a Best Picture nod and Lanthimos may pick up a directing mention. It should make the cut in Adapted Screenplay while tech nods like Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and (especially) Production Design are very possible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…