Tag: Venice Film Festival

Oscar Predictions: Hit Man (Take II)

This is the first time I’ve written a second Oscar Predictions post on the same picture, but it feels warranted with Richard Linklater’s Hit Man. Why? Happy to explain. The dark rom com premiered to sizzling buzz in Venice and Toronto last fall (the RT score is still an impressive 97%). I wrote my initial post on its awards chances on September 5th. You can peruse it here:

Oscar Predictions: Hit Man

At that juncture, its distribution was up in the air. I assumed it would find a release in 2023. However, Netflix scooped up it up and it’s out for streaming viewership this weekend some nine months plus later. A lot has changed since that festival birth.

Glen Powell is an even bigger star. Last September, I talked about how he was hot off a supporting role in Top Gun: Maverick. Now he’s fresh from a headlining turn in the unexpected rom com blockbuster Anyone but You. He’s a month away from starring in summer tentpole Twisters. In the fall of ’23, I stated that Best Actor was too crowded already for him to vie for a slot. That’s not the case in June of ’24 though we don’t know if there will be room for him among forthcoming dramatic performances in the second half of the year. When I did my last forecast two weeks ago, I had him in the quintet for Actor. We’ll see if he remains there when I do my next update on Sunday. I do think he’s viable and I do believe he gets a Golden Globe nod in the Musical/Comedy race for lead Actor. If he doesn’t, that probably means Netflix did a poor job campaigning. Adria Arjona, his love interest, could be in the mix for Actress in the same classification. For that matter, a GG mention in Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) might materialize.

Not everything has changed. The strongest Oscar chance is in Adapted Screenplay where Linklater has been nominated thrice before with Before Sunset, Before Midnight, and Boyhood. If and when that happens, Powell would be along for the ride since he co-scripted.

As for BP itself, you never know. I’ve had it listed in the bottom rungs of my top 25 possibilities. While a long shot, it could hit if too many of the upcoming hopefuls fall short of expectations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Evil Does Not Exist

In 2021, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car steered its acclaim to four Oscar nominations in Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and International Feature Film (which it won). His follow-up is the eco drama Evil Does Not Exist and it is out stateside this weekend. The cast includes Hitoshi Omika, Ryo Nishikawa, Ryuji Kosaka, and Ayaka Shibutani.

About 70 minutes shorter compared to the the lengthy Car, Evil played the festival circuit last fall including Venice and Toronto. Yet its distributor decided against a 2023 release and Japan didn’t need to decide whether to submit it as their IFF contender. Their pick Perfect Days did make the cut of nominees.

Now the nation has a ’24 choice to make. Reviews are positive at 92% on RT though not as strong as Hamaguchi’s predecessor. If Japan does select it, Evil has a shot at making the IFF quintet. I do not think it will expand beyond that like Car did. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Challengers

Luca Guadagnino’s love triangle/sports drama Challengers was expected to open the Venice Film Festival last September and have a plum awards-friendly fall release date for 2023. The actors strike changed that dynamic and now it’s slated for April 26th. Could it still make a racket at the Oscars and beyond?

It might get some love in some categories. Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist make up the aforementioned triangle. Reviews are strong with 96% on RT and critics praising their work. If any of the trio enter the mix, Zendaya seems to have the best shot. She’s said to serve up a career best performance according to several critics. The Dune: Part Two star was in the mix for 2021’s Malcolm & Marie, but ultimately didn’t make the cut. Her chances are fair though obviously lots of competition will come in the next several months.

A Best Picture nom may be a stretch. I wouldn’t totally discount it. However, Guadagnino has the historical drama Queer later in the year and it seems poised for a campaign in multiple categories. As for Challengers, Original Screenplay is a possibility. The race where do I expect a play is the Original Score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross as it’s being pointed out as a highlight frequently. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Beast

Taking its source material from a Henry James novella penned over 120 years ago, Bertrand Bonello’s The Beast is set 20 years in the future (with jumps back to 1910 and 2014). Léa Seydoux (recently seen in Dune: Part Two) and George MacKay headline with Guslagie Malanda and Dasha Nekrasova supporting. The sci-fi romance premiered at the Venice Film Festival last autumn and has made its way stateside after a French start in February.

86% of critics are fresh for what’s described as a tense art movie. Some reviewers are saying it doesn’t completely succeed, but give it points for the try. I don’t expect this to be something that the Academy takes notice of. I wouldn’t be surprised if it develops a cult following from genre enthusiasts. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Coup de chance

Woody Allen is back in thriller mode with Coup de chance, his 50th feature behind the camera that premiered in Venice last fall and was released in France shortly after. It’s out stateside in limited fashion this weekend with a streaming bow to follow next weekend. Shot in French, the main cast from that country includes Lou de Laâge, Valérie Lemercier, Melvil Poupaud, and Niels Schneider.

This is the Allen’s first work in three years after 2020’s Rifkin’s Festival as American audiences have largely shunned the filmmaker after abuse allegations resurfaced in the Me Too era. You can safely assume part of the reason this was made across the pond is due to the auteur not being able to pick up domestic distributors.

Despite the controversy around its maker, chance is generating some of Allen’s strongest reviews of the 21st century. The RT score is 84% with critics comparing it to 2005’s Match Point and others saying it’s his best since 2013’s Blue Jasmine. In a previous time, actors would frequently nab Oscar wins and noms in his pictures and so could the screenplay. Even with these laudatory notices, that time has passed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Dogman

Luc Besson’s Dogman is out in limited release stateside after premiering at the Venice Film Festival last fall and hitting France months ago. The crime thriller casts Caleb Landry Jones (of Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri fame) as a troubled canine lover. Costars include Jojo T. Gibbs, Christopher Denham, Clemens Schick, John Charles Aguilar, and Grace Palma.

Unsurprisingly, many reviews are calling this is a bizarre watch. That’s par for the course from the man who made The Fifth Element and Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets. Critical reaction is mixed with a 62% RT rating. Unlike those aforementioned titles, don’t look for Dogman to be in the mix for a Visual Effects nom from awards voters. Neither made the Oscar cut though Element nabbed a Sound Editing mention. Despite plenty of kudos for Jones’s performance, don’t expect this to contend for any other prizes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Is Origin An Oscar Sleeper?

Last year, a late breaking Oscar campaign for Andrea Riseborough’s performance in the micro-budgeted drama To Leslie resulted in success. With various celebrities holding events touting her work, Riseborough nabbed one of the five slots in Actress (over favored competitors like Danielle Deadwyler in Till and Viola Davis in The Woman King). This resulted in both controversy and kudos for a unique way to campaign for gold hardware.

Now for the 96th Academy Awards, we have another midnight hour title raising eyebrows in the form of Selma director Ana DuVernay’s Origin. Based on Isabel Wilkerson’s nonfiction novel, the race relations drama premiered on the festival circuit early in the fall at Venice and Toronto. Some reviews were raves, but not all. An 80% Rotten Tomatoes score resulted and Neon picked up distribution rights. Its wide release comes this Friday.

That timing could come in handy. However, Origin hasn’t been seen as a true threat for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, or Actress. Yet there’s been some noteworthy activity over the past week. Angelina Jolie hosted an FYC event with DuVernay and the film’s lead Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (nominated for Supporting Actress in 2021 for King Richard). Today the USC Scripter nods for Adapted Screenplay had this in their top 5 along with expected heavy hitters American Fiction, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things.

Could Origin nab a screenplay mention from the Academy? That’s still a tough road. The other four titles should make the cut and Barbie is also an adapted work according to Oscar (despite that being heavily debatable). It wasn’t eligible for the USC prize due to their rules.

Where this could “come out of nowhere” as Riseborough did is in Actress. I would say Lily Gladstone in Flower Moon and Emma Stone in Poor Things are locked in. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) and Carey Mulligan (Maestro) aren’t shoo-ins, but their inclusion is expected. Then we have one slot up for grabs and hopefuls include Greta Lee (Past Lives), Margot Robbie (Barbie), and Annette Bening (Nyad). We shall see if this fresh round of campaigning puts Ellis-Taylor in the mix. I have my doubts. Then again I didn’t predict Riseborough a year ago and was proven wrong.

I do think Best Picture is a reach. At best, this might be 12th or 13th as far as possibilities. Or perhaps the power of Jolie isn’t to be underestimated. My final Oscar predictions are arriving on the blog imminently…

Oscar Predictions: Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy

Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy is an out of the blue contender for Documentary Feature at the Oscars. It recounts the making of the 1969 Best Picture winner with Jon Voight and Dustin Hoffman as well as its classic era of filmmaking. Nancy Buirski, who passed away in August of last year, directs.

Souls first premiered at the Venice Film Festival in August of 2022. While reviews stand at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, some of them aren’t exactly raves. The victory for this doc about a BP recipient might be the shortlist. I haven’t had it in my top ten of possibilities and don’t expect to elevate it before making final selections later this week. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Bobi Wine: The People’s President

Bobi Wine: The People’s President from directors Christopher Sharp and Moses Bwayo chronicles the Ugandan presidential campaign of the title character. Having originally debuted at the Venice Film Festival in 2022, it received distribution stateside last year via Disney+/National Geographic. It’s one of 15 shortlisted features for Best Documentary Feature.

Sporting a 100% RT score, Bobi‘s filmmakers are freshly nominated for the DGA prize for directing for documentary alongside 20 Days in Mariupol, Beyond Utopia, Kokomo City, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. Only Kokomo is not eligible for Academy consideration.

This was under my radar for the majority of speculating season. However, it has sat at #9 in my last two rounds of predictions. I doubt it vaults into the top five when I make final picks later this week, but it’s certainly a viable contender for inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Priscilla Box Office Prediction

Two months after it premiered at the Venice Film Festival, Priscilla rolls out in wide release on November 3rd. Based on her mid-80s memoir, the biopic of Priscilla Presley stars Cailee Spaeny in the title role with Jacob Elordi as Elvis. Sofia Coppola directs.

Reviews have been satisfactory with a 94% Rotten Tomatoes rating. While Spaeny could contend at the Oscars in Best Actress (though it’s a crowded field), this has not generated much awards buzz outside of that. The A24 title is out in limited fashion October 27th. While it might play decently on the coasts, I suspect there’s not much demand across the country.

Part of its diminished prospects could be attributed to Elvis, Baz Luhrmann’s flashy biopic which rocked the box office in the summer of 2022. It picked up 8 Academy nominations as well.

If this were to manage high single digits, A24 should consider that a success. I am skeptical about that and I question whether it even gets to $5 million.

Priscilla opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million

For my What Happens Later prediction, click here:

What Happens Later Box Office Prediction