It was surprising when the Venice organizers announced that Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (out September 6th) would open their film festival which kicked off today. The long-in-development sequel (as in 36 years) brings Tim Burton back in the director’s chair with Michael Keaton reprising his iconic role as the ghost with the most. Winona Ryder and Catherine O’Hara return with Jenna Ortega (who stars in Netflix’s Wednesday from Burton), Justin Theroux, Monica Bellucci, and Willem Dafoe entering the macabre universe.
Projections have Beetlejuice squared circling big numbers at the box office. The Italian premiere announcement has prognosticators pondering the awards viability. The 1988 original earned a sole Oscar nod and it won Best Makeup (before it was Makeup and Hairstyling), beating out a worthy competitor in Coming to America.
Most of the reviews for the follow-up are in the plus column with 21 out of the current 27 sporting red on Rotten Tomatoes. Many are saying it’s a welcome return to form for Burton. It could certainly land another Makeup mention though defeating Dune: Part Two won’t be an easy chore. I wouldn’t totally rule out Production Design or Visual Effects as possibilities.
Anything beyond that is unlikely as the same probably holds true for its Golden Globes chances in Musical/Comedy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue with frequency now that Venice is underway…
In eights days, the Venice Film Festival will get underway followed the next day by Telluride and followed by Toronto the following week. The trio of events, as they always do, kick off a flurry of awards activity and dozens of Oscar Prediction posts on this blog. The fests in Italy, Colorado, and Canada will make the picture for the 97th Academy Awards considerably clearer.
As you peruse the titles listed below, here are just some which will debut at one or more of the festivals: Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The End, Maria, Nightbitch, Babygirl, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, The Fire Inside, Hard Truths, We Live in Time, The Wild Robot, Piece by Piece, and The Last Showgirl.
The plan is for my next update to arrive on Labor Day. By that time, quite a few of these titles will already have eyeballs on them and reviews will be written. Consider this the penultimate forecast before it gets really real.
This update comes with a pair of changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) enters my quintet with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) dropping out. Speaking of Conclave, John Lithgow is now in my Supporting Actor five over his costar Stanley Tucci.
You can peruse all the movement below as festival season is nearly upon us!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anora (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (E)
12. Saturday Night (PR: 18) (+6)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 12) (-3)
16. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Maria (PR: 17) (-1)
19. The End (PR: 20) (+1)
20. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 24) (+2)
23. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
24. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Fire Inside
Here
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Marielle Heller, Nightbitch
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)
9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (E)
12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Zendaya, Challengers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothèe Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tom Hanks, Here
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Selena Gomez, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (E)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Glenn Close, The Deliverance
Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+7)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (E)
15. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Raci, Sing Sing
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The End (PR: 9) (+1)
9. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dídi (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Maria (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Challengers (PR: 12) (E)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
A Different Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12 (E)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 13) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Caught by the Tides (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Uprising (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kneecap
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Land (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Union (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR 4) (E)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anora (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Challengers (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Challengers (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
The Piano Lesson
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (-1)
7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Maria
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez
Twisters
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wicked (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Mufasa: The Lion King
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz
8 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
6 Nominations
Gladiator II, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
2 Nominations
A Different Man, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, Challengers, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, The Outrun, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
The past few days for awards prognosticators like me have been eventful as the Venice and Toronto Film Festival have unveiled their lineups. Many of the expected 2024 heavy hitters have confirmed their premieres up north and across the ocean. That includes Conclave, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, The End, Hard Truths, and The Room Next Door to name a few. The NY Festival features Nickel Boys as its debut screening while Blitz will play London.
None of that information is particularly surprising. There was a rather unexpected development today courtesy of Fox Searchlight. The studio premiered the first look at their Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown and announced a release date of December. Directed by James Mangold, Timothée Chalamet stars as the legendary folk singer and the Dune/Wonka actor does his own crooning that you can hear in the trailer.
So will the picture be a golden ticket for Oscar attention? The December drop would indicate that Fox thinks so. Mangold is no stranger to this genre as he made 2005’s Walk the Line with Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny Cash. He was nominated for Best Actor while Reese Witherspoon won Actress as June Carter Cash. Chalamet has been killing it lately at the box office, but his sole Academy nom was for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name (losing to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour). This is obviously a high profile turn and he joins an Actor competition that is quite unclear. Only one thing seems certain(ish) and that’s Colman Domingo making the final five for the acclaimed Sing Sing. Since I started my forecasts in May, there’s been two other performers I’ve had slotted in the quintet: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) and Daniel Craig (Queer). We’ll know soon enough if they are legit contenders. The other two spots have fluctuated between hopefuls like Sebastian Stan (for either The Apprentice or A Different Man), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), and Glen Powell (Hit Man). And we can’t discount Mr. Phoenix for his second stint as Joker.
I do suspect that Chalamet will materialize in my top 5 for recognition when I update my predictions in the coming days. Where else could Unknown get in? Well, there’s Best Picture and Mangold’s direction. Walk the Line missed the cut for BP nearly 20 years ago. If there were 10 nominees back then like there is now, it probably would’ve gotten in. Mangold is a well-respected filmmaker with varied works including Cop Land, Girl, Interrupted, Logan, and Ford v Ferrari. While his co-scripting of Logan gave him an Adapted Screenplay nomination, he’s never received a directing mention.
Walk the Line did nab three other noms for Costume Design, Film Editing, and Sound Mixing. All three of those (though Sound is now just Sound since it combined Sound Mixing and Sound Editing) could be Unknown inclusions. Adapted Screenplay is also a possibility.
As for the rest of the cast, we simply don’t know if Edward Norton as Pete Seeger, Elle Fanning as Sylvie Russo, or Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez are substantial enough for supporting recognitions. I would anticipate at least Fanning being listed as a possibility in my next update.
Fox Searchlight also has Nightbitch and A Real Pain as awards bait releases. The former is mostly being discussed for Amy Adams and an Actress nod (where I currently have her ranked #1). The latter is seen as a vehicle for a Kieran Culkin Supporting Actor try (where I have him ranked fourth). Both could be in the BP mix. However, on paper, A Complete Unknown might be Fox’s most electrifying prospect. This is, of course, a complete unknown until it screens. We do now that it’ll be in this cycle.
Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing is already out in limited release and the A24 title is doing pretty impressive business in its four venues before a planned August expansion. Is it doing well enough to warrant a #1 spot in the BP rankings where I’ve had it for weeks?
That is a legit question and one that I’m struggling with in this particular update. With heralded performances from Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, it certainly seems like the type of crowdpleaser that could take the top prize. This could be without Kwedar landing a directing nod as I’ve yet to have him in the top five. If that plays out, it would be a similar situation to 2021 and the CODA victory despite Sian Heder missing the directorial quintet.
The bottom line is this: the #1 position in BP for Sing Sing is tenuous. I’ve got it clinging to that number though I considered Steve McQueen’s Blitz, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two, and Edward Berger’s Conclave (the first trailer for it dropped this week). Of course, we are only a month and change away from festival season kicking off with Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Those events always assist in clearing up the picture.
There was speculation that Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2 may not make the 2024 calendar for Warner Bros. Even when I thought it was likely to release this fall, I didn’t have it pegged as a BP player. I did have Toni Collette listed as a potential Supporting Actress hopeful along with Nicholas Hoult in Actor and at the bottom of the listed 15 in Original Screenplay. I am dropping Juror for now and would certainly adjust if it does materialize on the schedule.
Speaking of Supporting Actress, we got our first glimpse of The Deliverance from Lee Daniels this week. The supernatural horror flick (out on Netflix in late August) is not your typical awards fare. However, I am listing Glenn Close as a possibility. It is Glenn Close after all and she managed an Oscar nod recently for the critically panned Hillbilly Elegy (where she also was up for a Razzie).
In other news, my constant speculation on category placement continues. Saoirse Ronan is now back to being a double nominee in my view for lead Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress for Blitz (I can’t wait until this is cleared up). Ronan’s inclusion back in the supporting derby displaces Conclave‘s Isabella Rossellini. Another unclear item is the screenplay placement for Emilia Pérez. It could be considered Adapted and that’s where I had it a few days ago, but now I’m putting it in Original Screenplay (and just barely missing a nom).
We have two significant alterations in Best Actor. While the top 3 remain the same, I am now elevating Sebastian Stan’s performance in A Different Man over Sebastian Stan’s work in The Apprentice. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) also enters the high five for the first time. André Holland (The Actor) drops out of the quintet.
In Supporting Actor, Adam Pearson in A Different Man enters the five over Denzel Washington in Gladiator II.
You can read all the movement below for these feature length categories!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 20) (+6)
15. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (+4)
16. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (-2)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)
18. Maria (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The End (PR: 15) (-4)
20. The Fire Inside (PR: 22) (+2)
21. ADifferent Man (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Hard Truths (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Dídi (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
25. His Three Daughters (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All We Imagine as Light
Here
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)
15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (E)
15. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting Actress)
Zendaya, Challengers
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)
14. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Actress
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Emily Watson, Small Things like These
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)
9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (E)
11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (E)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)
11. The End (PR: 8) (-3)
12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Challengers (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
I Saw the TV Glow
Juror No. 2
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Queer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)
8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Original
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (E)
4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Uprising (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emmanuelle (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. Savages (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daughters (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (E)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: A Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)
9. Union (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Megalopolis (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Conclave
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)
4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Longlegs
Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Blitz (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+1)
7. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 3) (-4)
8. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow
“Release” from Trap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Civil War (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place: Day One
Nosferatu
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Here (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
And that adds up to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nods:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Conclave, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
3 Nominations
A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Nickel Boys, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
2 Nominations
Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
Hello America. As we celebrate our birthday today, perhaps the biggest awards news this week came from the Venice Film Festival. It kicks off in late August and the surprise announcement was that Tim Burton’s long in the works sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will open the Italian competition prior to its September 6th domestic theatrical bow.
That caused some prognosticators’ to speculate whether the Warner Bros release will make a play for Oscar inclusion. I wouldn’t go that far. In the past decade and a half, some of the premiere gala pics at Venice have generated BP nods including Black Swan, Gravity, Birdman, and La La Land. There’s been more that haven’t such as The Ides of March, Everest, Downsizing, First Man, and White Noise. That’s why you won’t find Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in my 25 possibilities for BP though I would expect to see its name (twice) in races like Makeup and Hairstyling and Production Design when I expand the category predictions a few weeks from now.
The London Film Festival shared its own scheduling report that Steve McQueen’s WWII drama Blitz will kick off that event in October before its November 1st output on the big screen. It will then hit Apple TV on November 22nd. I am a little befuddled that it is skipping Venice and Toronto, but it still appears to be Apple’s most significant contender. The word is also out that Saoirse Ronan will contend in lead Actress and not supporting for Blitz. That may well put her in competition with herself considering the acclaimed The Outrun (which was first seen at Sundance) and should make its way to theaters later this fall. I’ve had Ronan’s performance in Blitz slotted in supporting, but she makes the move up and replaces her Outrun work in the lead quintet. The buzz also has Harris Dickinson as the main supporting play over costars like Stephen Graham and Leigh Gill. Same with Kathy Burke in Supporting Actress. We’ll see if that holds true when those Londoners get eyeballs on it.
Another note – you may notice that Sing Sing is still #1 in BP while its director Greg Kwedar is on the outside looking in at sixth. That may seem counterintuitive. While it is still rare for a potential BP recipient to not see its maker in the cut for Director, it’s happened twice very recently with 2018’s Green Book and 2021’s CODA. Kwedar’s picture seems like the type of emotional crowdpleaser that could go all the way with voters. However, Kwedar himself may not make the quintet for his behind the camera efforts. I do anticipate him being up for the Adapted Screenplay that he cowrote.
Nickel Boys is the most significant gainer this time around. It moves into the BP ten while Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor vaults to #1 in Supporting Actress. The pic also materializes for the first go-round in Adapted Screenplay.
Speaking of that writing competition, I’ve shifted Emilia Pérez from Original to Adapted though that has not been determined at press time. We also have a new #1 in Adapted with my aforementioned BP leader Sing Sing.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 16) (+7)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (E)
13. The End (PR: 10) (-3)
14. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Gladiator II (PR: 24) (+9)
16. A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-2)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Nosferatu (PR: 25) (+7)
19. Maria (PR: 19) (E)
20. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 21) (+1)
21. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-6)
22. His Three Daughters (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Dídi (PR: 23) (E)
24. We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Here (PR: 20) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (E)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (-5)
11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)
15. Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The End
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-5)
13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz – moved to lead Actress
Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 12) (+7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-5)
11. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-1)
14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michael Shannon, The End
Barry Keoghan, Bird
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The End (PR: 3) (-5)
9. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dídi (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Maria (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Challengers (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Queer (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
This is the first time I’ve written a second Oscar Predictions post on the same picture, but it feels warranted with Richard Linklater’s Hit Man. Why? Happy to explain. The dark rom com premiered to sizzling buzz in Venice and Toronto last fall (the RT score is still an impressive 97%). I wrote my initial post on its awards chances on September 5th. You can peruse it here:
At that juncture, its distribution was up in the air. I assumed it would find a release in 2023. However, Netflix scooped up it up and it’s out for streaming viewership this weekend some nine months plus later. A lot has changed since that festival birth.
Glen Powell is an even bigger star. Last September, I talked about how he was hot off a supporting role in Top Gun: Maverick. Now he’s fresh from a headlining turn in the unexpected rom com blockbuster Anyone but You. He’s a month away from starring insummer tentpole Twisters. In the fall of ’23, I stated that Best Actor was too crowded already for him to vie for a slot. That’s not the case in June of ’24 though we don’t know if there will be room for him among forthcoming dramatic performances in the second half of the year. When I did my last forecast two weeks ago, I had him in the quintet for Actor. We’ll see if he remains there when I do my next update on Sunday. I do think he’s viable and I do believe he gets a Golden Globe nod in the Musical/Comedy race for lead Actor. If he doesn’t, that probably means Netflix did a poor job campaigning. Adria Arjona, his love interest, could be in the mix for Actress in the same classification. For that matter, a GG mention in Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) might materialize.
Not everything has changed. The strongest Oscar chance is in Adapted Screenplay where Linklater has been nominated thrice before with Before Sunset, Before Midnight, and Boyhood. If and when that happens, Powell would be along for the ride since he co-scripted.
As for BP itself, you never know. I’ve had it listed in the bottom rungs of my top 25 possibilities. While a long shot, it could hit if too many of the upcoming hopefuls fall short of expectations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In 2021, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car steered its acclaim to four Oscar nominations in Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and International Feature Film (which it won). His follow-up is the eco drama Evil Does Not Exist and it is out stateside this weekend. The cast includes Hitoshi Omika, Ryo Nishikawa, Ryuji Kosaka, and Ayaka Shibutani.
About 70 minutes shorter compared to the the lengthy Car, Evil played the festival circuit last fall including Venice and Toronto. Yet its distributor decided against a 2023 release and Japan didn’t need to decide whether to submit it as their IFF contender. Their pick Perfect Days did make the cut of nominees.
Now the nation has a ’24 choice to make. Reviews are positive at 92% on RT though not as strong as Hamaguchi’s predecessor. If Japan does select it, Evil has a shot at making the IFF quintet. I do not think it will expand beyond that like Car did. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Luca Guadagnino’s love triangle/sports drama Challengers was expected to open the Venice Film Festival last September and have a plum awards-friendly fall release date for 2023. The actors strike changed that dynamic and now it’s slated for April 26th. Could it still make a racket at the Oscars and beyond?
It might get some love in some categories. Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist make up the aforementioned triangle. Reviews are strong with 96% on RT and critics praising their work. If any of the trio enter the mix, Zendaya seems to have the best shot. She’s said to serve up a career best performance according to several critics. The Dune: Part Two star was in the mix for 2021’s Malcolm & Marie, but ultimately didn’t make the cut. Her chances are fair though obviously lots of competition will come in the next several months.
A Best Picture nom may be a stretch. I wouldn’t totally discount it. However, Guadagnino has the historical drama Queer later in the year and it seems poised for a campaign in multiple categories. As for Challengers, Original Screenplay is a possibility. The race where do I expect a play is the Original Score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross as it’s being pointed out as a highlight frequently. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Taking its source material from a Henry James novella penned over 120 years ago, Bertrand Bonello’s The Beast is set 20 years in the future (with jumps back to 1910 and 2014). Léa Seydoux (recently seen in Dune: Part Two) and George MacKay headline with Guslagie Malanda and Dasha Nekrasova supporting. The sci-fi romance premiered at the Venice Film Festival last autumn and has made its way stateside after a French start in February.
86% of critics are fresh for what’s described as a tense art movie. Some reviewers are saying it doesn’t completely succeed, but give it points for the try. I don’t expect this to be something that the Academy takes notice of. I wouldn’t be surprised if it develops a cult following from genre enthusiasts. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Woody Allen is back in thriller mode with Coup de chance, his 50th feature behind the camera that premiered in Venice last fall and was released in France shortly after. It’s out stateside in limited fashion this weekend with a streaming bow to follow next weekend. Shot in French, the main cast from that country includes Lou de Laâge, Valérie Lemercier, Melvil Poupaud, and Niels Schneider.
This is the Allen’s first work in three years after 2020’s Rifkin’s Festival as American audiences have largely shunned the filmmaker after abuse allegations resurfaced in the Me Too era. You can safely assume part of the reason this was made across the pond is due to the auteur not being able to pick up domestic distributors.
Despite the controversy around its maker, chance is generating some of Allen’s strongest reviews of the 21st century. The RT score is 84% with critics comparing it to 2005’s Match Point and others saying it’s his best since 2013’s Blue Jasmine. In a previous time, actors would frequently nab Oscar wins and noms in his pictures and so could the screenplay. Even with these laudatory notices, that time has passed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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